Study on Mechanisms Underlying Changes in Agricultural Carbon Emissions: A Case in Jilin Province, China, 1998-2018

Agricultural carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province, China (2001-2020): changing trends, influencing factors, and has it achieved synergy with food security and economic development?

Given the huge carbon footprint of agricultural activities, reduction in agricultural carbon emission (ACE) is important to achieve China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, but it may affect agricultural food security and economic development. Therefore, it is important for scientific carbon reduction measures to understand the multi-year trends and the influencing factors of ACE, and clarify whether the process of ACE affects food security and economic development. This study analyzed the trends of total ACE and ACE caused by different agricultural carbon sources (ACS) from 2001 to 2020 in Zhejiang Province, then we revealed the main influencing factors of ACE based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model and dissected the relationship between ACE and food security and economic development. Results show that the total ACE fluctuated from 6.10 Mt in 2001 to 3.93 Mt in 2020, and the process included a decrease in 2001-2003 and 2005-2020 and an increase in 2003-2005. The decrease in ACE, from 2001 to 2014, was mainly due to the decline in rice acreage, which contributed 90.38%; from 2014 to 2020, it was by the reduction in the use of fertilizer, diesel, and pesticide, which contributed 83.9%. As drivers, agricultural economic development effect and total population size effect drove 4.25 and 1.54 Mt of ACE, respectively. As inhibitors, planting structure effect, technology development effect, and population structure effect inhibited 3.12, 2.11, and 2.74 Mt of ACE, respectively. With the reduction of ACE, the agricultural economy continued to grow, but the food security situation was pessimistic, indicating that ACE reduction has achieved synergy with economic development, but not with food security.

Analysis of regional differences and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions in China

In order to realize "double carbon" target in agriculture and high-quality development of the rural economy in China, it is crucial to study the regional differences and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE). This paper measures ACE using panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2020, examines the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics，the convergence of agricultural carbon emissions, compares and analyzes regional differences, and investigates the spatial correlation and spatial spillover effects. The study found that: (1) Total agricultural carbon emissions over the research period exhibit a rising and then reducing trend, the spatial distribution of total agricultural carbon emissions is described as high in east-central and low in west. The gap of agricultural carbon emissions is gradually declining in the east, and will eventually reach their respective steady-state levels in the west and northeast. (2) There is a strong spatial interprovincial link of ACE, which has a beneficial knock-on effect on the convergence of adjacent provinces. (3) Agricultural industrial structure, urbanization level, the size of the agricultural labor force, and the intensity of the agricultural machinery input all directly affect ACE in this province and indirectly affect ACE in adjacent provinces, with the exception of the negligible coefficient of economic development level on ACE. Hence, pertinent policy suggestions are put out to serve as a guide for reducing ACE.

Identification and prediction of climate factors based on factor analysis and a grey prediction model in China

Identifying and predicting the impacts of climate change are crucial for various purposes, such as maintaining biodiversity, agricultural production, ecological security, and environmental conservation in different regions. In this paper, we used the surface pressure (SP), surface temperature (ST), 2-m air temperature (AT), 2-m dewpoint temperature (DT), 10-m wind speed (WS), precipitation (PRE), relative humidity (RH), actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), potential evapotranspiration (ET_P), total solar radiation (TRs), net solar radiation (NRs), UV intensity (UVI), sunshine duration (SD), convective available potential energy (CAPE) as factors in our climate modeling. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the climate factors were analyzed and identified based on historical data for China from 1950 to 2020 using factor analysis and a grey model (GM (1,1)), and their future change characteristics were predicted. The results show that there is a strong correlation between climate factors. ST, AT, DT, PRE, RH, and ET_a are the main factors that have the potential to cause heavy rain, thunderstorms, and other severe weather. Meanwhile, PRE, RH, TR_s, NR_s, UVI, and SD are among the major factors linked to climate change. Specifically, SP, ST, AT, and WS are among the minor factors in most areas. The top ten provinces in terms of combined factor scores are Heilongjiang, Neimenggu, Qinghai, Beijing, Shandong, Xizang, Shanxi, Tianjin, Guangdong, and Henan. The trend of climate factors in China is expected to remain relatively stable over the next 30 years, with a noteworthy decrease observed in CAPE compared to the past 71 years. Our findings can help to better mitigate the risks associated with climate change and enhance resilience; they also provide a scientific basis for environmental, ecological, and agricultural systems to cope with climate change.

The nexuses between carbon emissions, agriculture production efficiency, research and development, and government effectiveness: evidence from major agriculture-producing countries

Agriculture production efficiency and carbon emissions have become the challenge for the sustainable world. Therefore, this study explores the relationships between agriculture production and carbon emissions in major (seventeen) agriculture-producing countries over the time period of 1996-2018. Data envelopment analysis is applied to estimate the efficiency of agriculture sector production. The results suggested that the USA, Russia, Korea, Japan, and Italy were efficient agriculture production. Among BRICS countries, China (0.183), India (0.378), and Brazil (0.382) are far off to Russia in Agriculture production efficiency. Growth of research and development investment by 1% increases agriculture production efficiency by 0.0773 (full panel), 0.119 (developing), and 0.0245(developed), respectively. Carbon emissions are also significantly decreased by research and development investment. However, the effectiveness of the government on carbon emissions can be both positive and negative in developed and developing countries' cases. Nevertheless, both developed and developing governments are concerned about increasing agriculture production efficiency. The shape validity of the environmental Kuznets curve is also varied between the developed and developing groups. From the policy perspective, it is suggested that the government should reform its policies to avoid carbon activities and enhance the agricultural sector on a priority basis to increase the efficiency of current raw resources, generate jobs, and reap a variety of other advantages.

Analysis of the Impact of Livestock Structure on Carbon Emissions of Animal Husbandry: A Sustainable Way to Improving Public Health and Green Environment

Carbon emissions of animal husbandry have been gaining increasing attention due to their high share in global carbon emissions. In this regard, it is essential to assess the regional differences, dynamic evolution patterns, convergence characteristics, and the impact of livestock structure on carbon emissions of animal husbandry. Using data from 30 provincial administrative regions from 2000 to 2018 in China, this study employs the Thiel index method, kernel density analysis, and convergence analysis to quantify the impact of livestock structure on carbon emissions of animal husbandry. The statistical results reveal that carbon emissions of animal husbandry exhibit a rising and declining trend. Specifically, the carbon emissions of animal husbandry are highest in agricultural areas (with a declining trend), followed by agro-pastoral areas (with a declining trend), and the pastoral areas (with a rising trend). It is further revealed that there are no δ convergence and β convergence of carbon emissions of animal husbandry. Finally, essential and useful policy recommendations are put forward to inhibit carbon emissions of animal husbandry.

Decoupling and Decomposition Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Heilongjiang Province, China

Ensuring food security and curbing agricultural carbon emissions are both global policy goals. The evaluation of the relationship between grain production and agricultural carbon emissions is important for carbon emission reduction policymaking. This paper took Heilongjiang province, the largest grain-producing province in China, as a case study, estimated its grain production-induced carbon emissions, and examined the nexus between grain production and agricultural carbon emissions from 2000 to 2018, using decoupling and decomposition analyses. The results of decoupling analysis showed that weak decoupling occurred for half of the study period; however, the decoupling state and coupling state occurred alternately, and there was no definite evolving path from coupling to decoupling. Using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, we decomposed the changes in agricultural carbon emissions into four factors: agricultural economy, agricultural carbon emission intensity, agricultural structure, and agricultural labor force effects. The results showed that the agricultural economic effect was the most significant driving factor for increasing agricultural carbon emissions, while the agricultural carbon emission intensity effect played a key inhibiting role. Further integrating decoupling analysis with decomposition analysis, we found that a low-carbon grain production mode began to take shape in Heilongjiang province after 2008, and the existing environmental policies had strong timeliness and weak persistence, probably due to the lack of long-term incentives for farmers. Finally, we suggested that formulating environmental policy should encourage farmers to adopt environmentally friendly production modes and technologies through taxation, subsidies, and other economic means to achieve low-carbon agricultural goals in China.

Crop Production and Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Relationship Diagnosis and Decomposition Analysis

Modern agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, and agriculture has become the second biggest source of carbon emissions in China. In this context, it is necessary for China to study the nexus of agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions. Taking Jilin province as an example, this paper applied the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and a decoupling analysis to examine the relationship between crop production and agricultural carbon emissions during 2000–2018, and it further provided a decomposition analysis of the changes in agricultural carbon emissions using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The results were as follows: (1) Based on the results of CO₂ EKC estimation, an N-shaped EKC was found; in particular, the upward trend in agricultural carbon emissions has not changed recently. (2) According to the results of the decoupling analysis, expansive coupling occurred for 9 years, which was followed by weak decoupling for 5 years, and strong decoupling and strong coupling occurred for 2 years each. There was no stable evolutionary path from coupling to decoupling, and this has remained true recently. (3) We used the LMDI method to decompose the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions into four factors: the agricultural carbon emission intensity effect, structure effect, economic effect, and labor force effect. From a policymaking perspective, we integrated the results of both the EKC and the decoupling analysis and conducted a detailed decomposition analysis, focusing on several key time points. Agricultural economic growth was found to have played a significant role on many occasions in the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while agricultural carbon emission intensity was important to the decline in agricultural carbon emissions. Specifically, the four factors’ driving direction in the context of agricultural carbon emissions was not stable. We also found that the change in agricultural carbon emissions was affected more by economic policy than by environmental policy. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions for low-carbon agricultural development in Jilin province.

Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of CO2 Emissions Based on LMDI and Two-Dimensional Decoupling Model in Gansu Province, China

Currently, little attention has been paid to reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of Gansu, and the two-dimensional decoupling model has been rarely used to study the relationship between the economic development and CO₂ emissions, especially in western China (e.g., Gansu). Thus, here, we first used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to decompose the driving factors of Gansu's CO₂ emissions between 2000-2017 and then analyzed the decoupling relationship by using the two-dimensional model. Results showed: (1) Gansu's CO₂ emissions increased from 7805.70 × 10⁴ t in 2000 to 19,896.05 × 10⁴ t in 2017. The secondary industry accounted for the largest proportion in Gansu's CO₂ emissions, followed by the tertiary industry and the primary industry. (2) The economic output showed the dominant driving effect on Gansu's CO₂ emissions growth with the cumulative contribution rate of 201.94%, followed by the effects of industrial structure, population size, and energy structure, and their cumulative contribution rates were 9.68%, 7.81%, and 3.05%, respectively. In contrast, the energy intensity effect presented the most obvious mitigating effect with the cumulative contribution rate of -122.49%. (3) The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) between CO₂ emissions and economic growth was demonstrated the inverted U-shape in Gansu. The two-dimensional decoupling status was the low level-weak decoupling (WD-LE) during 2000-2017. Thus, dropping the proportion of the secondary industry, reducing the use of carbon-intensive fuel like coal, introducing advanced technologies, and increasing the investment of new energy might effectively restrain the growth of Gansu's CO₂ emissions.