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Jeong S, Lim Y, Kang Y, Yi C. Elucidating Uncertainty in Heat Vulnerability Mapping: Perspectives on Impact Variables and Modeling Approaches. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 21:815. [PMID: 39063393 PMCID: PMC11276983 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph21070815] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2024] [Revised: 05/27/2024] [Accepted: 05/28/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024]
Abstract
Heat vulnerability maps are vital for identifying at-risk areas and guiding interventions, yet their relationship with health outcomes is underexplored. This study investigates the uncertainty in heat vulnerability maps generated using health outcomes and various statistical models. We constructed vulnerability maps for 167 municipalities in Korea, focusing on the mild and severe health impacts of heat waves on morbidity and mortality. The outcomes included incidence rates of heat-related outpatient visits (morbidity) and attributable mortality rates (mortality) among individuals aged 65 years and older. To construct these maps, we utilized 11 socioeconomic variables related to population, climate, and economic factors. Both linear and nonlinear statistical models were employed to assign these socioeconomic variables to heat vulnerability. We observed variations in the crucial socioeconomic variables affecting morbidity and mortality in the vulnerability maps. Notably, nonlinear models depicted the spatial patterns of health outcomes more accurately than linear models, considering the relationship between health outcomes and socioeconomic variables. Our findings emphasize the differences in the spatial distribution of heat vulnerability based on health outcomes and the choice of statistical models. These insights underscore the importance of selecting appropriate models to enhance the reliability of heat vulnerability maps and their relevance for policy-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sockho Jeong
- Chungnam Economy Promotion Agency, Support Center for Community Revitalization, Yesan-gun 32416, Republic of Korea;
| | - Yeonyeop Lim
- Department of Geography, Kongju National University, Kongju-si 32588, Republic of Korea;
| | - Yeji Kang
- Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong-si 30116, Republic of Korea;
| | - Chaeyeon Yi
- Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Global Campus, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin-si 17035, Republic of Korea
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Sung HM, Lee JH, Kim JU, Shim S, Chung CY, Byun YH. Changes in Thermal Stress in Korea Using Climate-Based Indicators: Present-Day and Future Projections from 1 km High Resolution Scenarios. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:6694. [PMID: 37681834 PMCID: PMC10487949 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20176694] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Revised: 08/19/2023] [Accepted: 08/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/09/2023]
Abstract
Among the various thermal stress indices, apparent temperature (AT) is closely related to public health indicators, and consequently is widely used by weather agencies around the world. Therefore, in this paper we estimate the changes in AT and contributing components in Korea as a whole and in five major cities (Seoul, Gwanju, Daegu, Daejeon, and Busan) using national standard climate scenarios based on the coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP6). In the present day, high AT occurs in major cities due to high temperature (TAS) and relative humidity (RH). Our findings reveal that even when TAS is relatively low, large AT occurs with higher humidity. Notably, in future warmer climate conditions, high AT may first appear in the five major cities and then extend to the surrounding areas. An increase in TAS and RH during the pre-hot season (March to June) may lead to earlier occurrence of thermal risks in future warmer climate conditions and more frequent occurrence of high thermal stress events. Our study can serve as a reference for future information on thermal risk changes in Korea. Considering those who have not adapted to high temperature environments, our findings imply that thermal risks will become more serious and that heat adaptation strategies will be needed during the pre-hot season under future warmer climate conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyun Min Sung
- Climate Change Research Team, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea; (J.-H.L.); (J.-U.K.); (S.S.); (C.-Y.C.)
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Park J, Chae Y. Analysis of time-dependent effects of ambient temperatures on health by vulnerable groups in Korea in 1999-2018. Sci Rep 2023; 13:922. [PMID: 36650176 PMCID: PMC9845373 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28018-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2022] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
This study compared the relative risks of heat days on mortalities by vulnerable groups (elderly, single-person households, less-educated) in the past decade (1999-2008) and the recent decade (2009-2018) in four cities, Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, and Gwangju, in Korea. It has been known that the health impacts of heatwaves have gradually decreased over time due to socio-economic development, climate adaptation, and acclimatization. Contrary to general perception, we found that the recent relative risk of mortality caused by heat days has increased among vulnerable groups. It may associate with recent increasing trends of severe heat days due to climate change. The increasing relative risk was more significant in single-person households and less-educated groups than in the elderly. It implies that the impacts of climate change-induced severe heat days have been and will be concentrated on vulnerable groups. It suggests that social polarization and social isolation should be addressed to reduce heatwave impacts. Furthermore, this study shows the necessity of customized heatwave policies, which consider the characteristics of vulnerable groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jongchul Park
- Kongju National University, 56 Gongjudaehak-ro, Gongju, 32588, Korea
| | - Yeora Chae
- Korea Environment Institute, 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong, 30147, Korea.
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Kiarsi M, Amiresmaili M, Mahmoodi M, Farahmandnia H, Nakhaee N, Zareiyan A, Aghababaeian H. Heat wave adaptation paradigm and adaptation strategies of community: A qualitative phenomenological study in Iran. JOURNAL OF EDUCATION AND HEALTH PROMOTION 2022; 11:408. [PMID: 36824085 PMCID: PMC9942165 DOI: 10.4103/jehp.jehp_440_22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2022] [Accepted: 04/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat wave adaptation is a new concept related to experiencing heat. The present study aims at investigating a conceptual definition, that is, the mental framework of heat wave adaptation and its strategies. MATERIALS AND METHODS A phenomenological study was performed to explain the mental concept. At the same time with the data collection process, data analysis was also performed using Colaizzi method. Semi-structured interview method and purposeful sampling with maximum variety were used. Interviews were conducted with 23 different subjects in the community. The accuracy of the data was guaranteed using Lincoln & Guba scientific accuracy criteria. RESULTS The two main themes of the adaptation paradigm as well as its strategies were divided into the main categories of theoretical and operational concepts, as well as personal care measures and government measures. Under the category of individual measures, we obtained "clothing, nutrition, building, place of residence and lifestyle," and under the category of governance actions, the "managerial, research, health, organizational" subcategories were obtained. CONCLUSION According to the results of the conceptual-operational definition, heat wave adaptation is an active process and an effort to reduce the adverse effects of heat waves on individual and social life, and striking a balance that will not only result in individual awareness and actions that will lead to lifestyle changes, but also mostly requires integrated and comprehensive planning in the community. On the one hand, heat waves could not only be regarded as a threat or danger, but can also become an opportunity for the development of a community through identification and smart measures, and for adaptation, the community must take it as a risk. The community should have a plan in advance, apply the necessary rules and training, and use the new facilities and rules where necessary. This practical concept definition includes the main features of heat wave adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maryam Kiarsi
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Amiresmaili
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Mahmoodi
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
- Physiology Research Center, Institute of Neuropharmacology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
- Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Hojjat Farahmandnia
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
| | - Nouzar Nakhaee
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Health Services Management Research Center, Institute of Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Iran
| | - Armin Zareiyan
- Public Health Department, Health in Emergencies and Disasters Department, Nursing Faculty, AJA University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
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Kim OS, Han J, Kim KW, Matthews SA, Shim C. Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea. CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 2022; 38:100456. [PMID: 37799350 PMCID: PMC10553378 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/07/2023]
Abstract
South Korea's population is declining and its composition changing, associated with lowest-low fertility rates and rapid aging (super aging). When estimating changes in future exposure to extreme heat events (EHE), events that are predicted to be intensified due to climate change, it is important to incorporate demographic dynamics. We analyze business-as-usual (BAU) population and climate scenarios-where BAU refers to no significant change in current processes and trends in either domain-from 2010 to 2060 for South Korea. Data for both BAU scenarios are spatially linked and used to measure and identify national and sub-national and age-group specific EHE exposure. The results reveal an increasing exposure to EHE over time at the national level, but this varies widely within the country, measured at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure levels will be in the decade ending in 2040 driven by high estimated severe EHE. Sub-nationally, Seoul will be the most vulnerable municipality associated with super aging, while severe EHE not demographic factors will be relevant in Daegu, the second-most vulnerable metropolitan area. By 2060, national estimates suggest the older population will be up to four times more exposed to EHE than today. While the population of South Korea will decline, the rapid aging of the population ensures that specific regions of the country will become exceedingly vulnerable to EHE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oh Seok Kim
- Department of Geography, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Geography Education, College of Education, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Future Land, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jihyun Han
- Division of Climate and Environmental Research, Seoul Institute of Technology, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Kee Whan Kim
- Department of National Statistics, Korea University, Sejong, Republic of Korea
| | - Stephen A. Matthews
- Department of Sociology and Criminology, Penn State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Department of Anthropology, Penn State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Changsub Shim
- Division of Atmospheric Environment, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong, Republic of Korea
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Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China. LAND 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/land10101021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The frequency, duration, and magnitude of heatwaves and droughts are expected to increase in a warming climate, which can have profound impacts on the environment, society, and public health, and these may be severely affected specifically by compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs). On the basis of daily maximum temperature data and the one-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1961 to 2018, the Gan River Basin (GRB) was taken as a case here to construct CDHW identification indicators and quantify the population exposure to CDHWs. We found that ERA5 reanalysis data performed well in overall simulating temperature, precipitation, one-month SPEI, heatwaves, and CDHWs in the GRB from 1961 to 2018. CDHWs during the period from 1997 to 2018 were slightly higher than that in 1961–1997. CDHWs were more likely to occur in the southern parts of the basin due to the relatively high values of drought–heatwave dependence indices. Atmospheric circulation analysis of the 2003 CDHW in the GRB showed a relatively long-lasting anomalous high pressure and anticyclonic circulation system, accompanied by the positive convective inhibition and surface net solar radiation anomalies. These circulating background fields eventually led to the exceptional 2003 CDHW occurrence in the GRB. The population exposure to CDHWs basically increased, especially for the moderate CDHWs in ERA5. The change in total exposure was mainly due to climate change. Compared with the period from 1989 to 1998, the contributions of the population change effect in 2009–2018 gradually increased with the increase in the CDHW magnitude both in the observations and ERA5 reanalysis data.
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