Estimating Relative Risk When Observing Zero Events-Frequentist Inference and Bayesian Credibility Intervals

Sex ratio and age of onset in AQP4 antibody-associated NMOSD: a review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Aquaporin-4 (AQP4) antibody-associated neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is an antibody-mediated inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. We have undertaken a systematic review and meta-analysis to ascertain the sex ratio and mean age of onset for AQP4 antibody associated NMOSD. We have also explored factors that impact on these demographic data.

METHODS

A systematic search of databases was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. Articles reporting sex distribution and age of onset for AQP4 antibody-associated NMSOD were reviewed. An initially inclusive approach involving exploration with regression meta-analysis was followed by an analysis of just AQP4 antibody positive cases.

RESULTS

A total of 528 articles were screened to yield 89 articles covering 19,415 individuals from 88 population samples. The female:male sex ratio was significantly influenced by the proportion of AQP4 antibody positive cases in the samples studied (p < 0.001). For AQP4 antibody-positive cases the overall estimate of the sex ratio was 8.89 (95% CI 7.78-10.15). For paediatric populations the estimate was 5.68 (95% CI 4.01-8.03) and for late-onset cases, it was 5.48 (95% CI 4.10-7.33). The mean age of onset was significantly associated with the mean life expectancy of the population sampled (p < 0.001). The mean age of onset for AQP4 antibody-positive cases in long-lived populations was 41.7 years versus 33.3 years in the remainder.

CONCLUSIONS

The female:male sex ratio and the mean age of onset of AQP4 antibody-associated NMOSD are significantly higher than MS. The sex ratio increases with the proportion of cases that are positive for AQP4 antibodies and the mean age of onset increases with population life expectancy.

Effectiveness of tixagevimab/cilgavimab (Evusheld) in antiCD20‑treated patients with multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder

BACKGROUND

AntiCD20 therapy, such as rituximab, ocrelizumab, or ofatumumab, effectively treats patients with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) or neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (pwNMOSD) but negatively affects the humoral immune response to COVID-19 vaccination. One strategy to protect these patients is using tixagevimab/cilgavimab (T/C) as pre-exposure prophylaxis. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of T/C on the incidence of COVID-19 in pwMS and pwNMOSD.

METHODS

Data in this observational cohort study were collected in two Czech MS centres through ReMuS registry between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2022. Adult pwMS and pwNMOSD who were (1) treated with antiCD20 therapy at least six months before T/C administration, or at least from February 1, 2022 in the control group; (2) were already on antiCD20 therapy at the time of vaccination or COVID-19 infection; and (3) were on antiCD20 therapy at least 100 days after T/C, or at least 90 days after August 1, 2022 in the control group, were included. Analysis was performed using frequency-based (propensity score matching) and Bayesian statistical methods (informative and non-informative priors).

RESULTS

Using propensity score matching 1:1, 47 patients who received T/C (mean age 45.7 years, median disease duration 12.5 years) were matched with those who did not receive T/C (n = 341; mean age 46.6 years, median disease duration 11.4 years) based on age, MS/NMOSD duration, and number of vaccine doses. None of the T/C patients and three in the control matched group, developed COVID-19 between 10 and 100 days after receiving T/C, August 1, 2022, respectively. The frequency of COVID-19 was not significantly different between groups (p = 0.242). Due to the low number of patients, a Bayesian analysis was also added. Using a non-informative Bayesian prior, the median relative risk of COVID-19 after T/C was 7.6 % (95 % CrI 0.02-115.9 %). The posterior probability of risk difference lower than zero was 96.4 %. Using an informative prior (based on the registration study of Evusheld), the median relative risk of COVID-19 after T/C was 20.2 % (95 % CI 8.4-43.8 %). The posterior probability of the risk difference lower than zero was 100 %.

CONCLUSION

This work highlights the possible good efficacy of T/C in antiCD20-treated pwMS and pwNMSOD. Based on Bayesian analysis with an informative prior, the T/C group's risk of COVID-19 infection was approximately 20.2 % of the control group's risk. However, given the low frequency of COVID-19, the results of this pilot analysis must be interpreted with caution.

Vaccination for the prevention of equine herpesvirus-1 disease in domesticated horses: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Equine herpes virus type 1 (EHV-1) infection in horses is associated with respiratory and neurologic disease, abortion, and neonatal death.

HYPOTHESIS

Vaccines decrease the occurrence of clinical disease in EHV-1-infected horses.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed searching multiple databases to identify relevant studies. Selection criteria were original peer-reviewed research reports that investigated the in vivo use of vaccines for the prevention of disease caused by EHV-1 in domesticated horses. Main outcomes of interest included pyrexia, abortion, neurologic disease, viremia, and nasal shedding. We evaluated risk of bias, conducted exploratory meta-analyses of incidence data for the main outcomes, and performed a GRADE evaluation of the quality of evidence for each vaccine subtype.

RESULTS

A total of 1018 unique studies were identified, of which 35 met the inclusion criteria. Experimental studies accounted for 31/35 studies, with the remainder being observational studies. Eight vaccine subclasses were identified including commercial (modified-live, inactivated, mixed) and experimental (modified-live, inactivated, deletion mutant, DNA, recombinant). Risk of bias was generally moderate, often because of underreporting of research methods, and sample sizes were small leading to imprecision in the estimate of the effect size. Several studies reported either no benefit or minimal vaccine efficacy for the primary outcomes of interest. Meta-analyses revealed significant heterogeneity was present, and our confidence in the quality of evidence for most outcomes was low to moderate.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE

Our review indicates that commercial and experimental vaccines minimally reduce the incidence of clinical disease associated with EHV-1 infection.

Efficacy and Safety of Ketamine to Treat Cancer Pain in Adult Patients: A Systematic Review

CONTEXT

Ketamine is a well-characterized anesthetic agent, and subanesthetic ketamine possesses analgesic effects in both acute and chronic pain.

OBJECTIVES

A systematic review was performed to ascertain the efficacy and safety of ketamine in treating pain for cancer patients.

METHODS

Eight databases were searched from the inception to March 20th, 2023 to obtain randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on ketamine for treating pain in cancer patients. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted the data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies; then, meta-analysis was performed by using Revman 5.3 software and Stata 14.0 software.

RESULTS

Thirty-five studies were included, involving 2279 patients with cancer pain. The results of meta-analysis showed that ketamine could significantly reduce pain intensity. Subgroup analysis revealed that, when compared with control group, ketamine decreased markedly visual analogue scale (VAS) scores in two days after the end of treatment with ketamine, and ketamine administrated by patient controlled epidural analgesia (PCEA) was effective. Meanwhile, ketamine could significantly reduce the number of patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) compressions within 24 hours and morphine dosage. Ketamine could not decrease Ramsay sedation score. Additionally, the adverse events significantly decreased in the ketamine group, including nausea and vomiting, constipation, pruritus, lethargy, uroschesis, hallucination, and respiratory depression. In addition, compared with the control group, ketamine could reduce Hamilton depression scale (HAMD) score and relieve depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSION

Ketamine may be used as an effective therapy to relieve cancer pain. However, more rigorously designed RCTs with larger sample sizes are required to verify the above conclusions.

Preparing for a hotter climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis of heatwaves and ambulance callouts in Australia

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of heatwaves on likelihood of ambulance callouts for Australia.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to retrieve and synthesise evidence published from 1 January 2011 to 31 May 2023 about the association between heatwaves and the likelihood of ambulance callouts in Australia. Different heatwave definitions were used ranging from excess heat factor to heatwave defined as a continuous period with temperatures above certain defined thresholds (which varied based on study locations).

RESULTS

We included nine papers which met the inclusion criteria for the review. Eight were eligible for the meta-analyses. The multilevel meta-analyses revealed that the likelihood of ambulance callouts for all causes and for cardiovascular diseases increased by 10% (95% confidence interval: 8%, 13%) and 5% (95% confidence interval: 1%, 3%), respectively, during heatwave days.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to heatwaves is associated with an increased likelihood of ambulance callouts, and there is a dose-response association between heatwave severity and the likelihood of ambulance callouts.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

The number of heatwave days are going to increase, and this will mean an increase in the likelihood of ambulance callouts, thereby, spotlighting the real burden that heatwaves place on our already stressed healthcare system. The findings of this study underscore the critical need for proactive measures, including the establishment of research initiatives and holistic heat health awareness campaigns, spanning from the individual and community levels to the healthcare system, in order to create a more resilient Australia in the face of heatwave-related challenges.

Pooled rates and demographics of POTS following SARS-CoV-2 infection versus COVID-19 vaccination: Systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To address recent concerns of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) occurring after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus as of 1st June 2023. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of pooled POTS rate in SARS-CoV-2-infected and COVID-19-vaccinated groups from epidemiological studies, followed by subgroup analyses by characteristic. Meta-analysis of risk ratio was conducted to compare POTS rate in infected versus uninfected groups. Meta-analysis of demographics was also performed to compare cases of post-infection and post-vaccination POTS from case reports and series.

RESULTS

We estimated the pooled POTS rate of 107.75 (95 % CI: 9.73 to 273.52) and 3.94 (95 % CI: 0 to 16.39) cases per 10,000 (i.e., 1.08 % and 0.039 %) in infected and vaccinated individuals based on 5 and 2 studies, respectively. Meta-regression revealed age as a significant variable influencing 86.2 % variance of the pooled POTS rate in infected population (P < 0.05). Moreover, POTS was 2.12-fold more likely to occur in infected than uninfected individuals (RR = 2.12, 95 % CI: 1.71 to 2.62, P < 0.001). Meta-analyzed demographics for cases of post-infection (n = 43) and post-vaccination (n = 17) POTS found no significant differences in several variables between groups, except that the time from exposure to symptom onset was shorter for cases of post-vaccination POTS (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Although evidence is limited for post-vaccination POTS, our study showed that POTS occur more frequently following SARS-CoV-2 infection than COVID-19 vaccination.

Plasma Epstein-Barr Virus DNA and Risk of Future Nasopharyngeal Cancer

BACKGROUND: We previously conducted a prospective study to show that nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) screening with circulating Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA analysis can improve survival. However, the long-term significance of positive results in individuals without cancer was unclear. METHODS: We conducted a second-round screening at a median of 43 months after the initial screening. Participants with detectable plasma EBV DNA were retested in 4 weeks, and those with persistently positive results were investigated with nasal endoscopy and magnetic resonance imaging. RESULTS: Of the 20,174 volunteers who participated in the first-round screening, 17,838 (88.6%) were rescreened. Among them, 423 (2.37%) had persistently detectable plasma EBV DNA. Twenty-four patients were identified as having NPC. A significantly higher proportion of patients had stage I/II cancer than in a historical cohort (67% vs. 20%; chi-square test, P<0.001), and they had superior 3-year progression-free survival (100% vs. 78.8%). Compared with participants with undetectable plasma EBV DNA in the first round of screening, participants with transiently and persistently positive results in the first round were more likely to have a cancer identified in the second round, with relative risks of 4.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 15.0) and 16.8 (95% confidence interval, 5.7 to 49.6), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with detectable plasma EBV DNA but without an immediately identifiable NPC were more likely to have the cancer identified in another round of screening performed 3 to 5 years later. (Funded by Kadoorie Charitable Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02063399.)

Effectiveness of including weight management in smoking cessation treatments: A meta-analysis of behavioral interventions

INTRODUCTION

The potential of weight gain after smoking cessation reduces the incentive to quit. This meta-analysis examines the efficacy of behavioral interventions for smoking cessation that also address post-cessation weight gain.

METHODS

Medline, Web of Science, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for randomized controlled trials on behavioral treatments targeting both health outcomes. Six separate meta-analyses were undertaken to assess treatment efficacy on smoking abstinence and weight outcomes at end of treatment (EOT), short-term, and long-term follow-up. Individual and treatment moderators were examined as well as methodological quality and publication bias of studies.

RESULTS

A total of 28 studies were included in the meta-analysis. There was a statistically significant positive impact of treatments addressing both targets on smoking outcomes at EOT (RR = 1.279, 95% CI: 1.096, 1.492, p = .002), but not at follow-ups. Age impacted on EOT abstinence rates Q (1) = 4.960, p = .026) while increasing the number of sessions significantly improved EOT abstinence rates (p = .020). There was no statistically significant impact of these treatments on weight at EOT (Hedges' g = -0.015, 95% CI: -.164, 0.135, p = .849) or follow-ups (short term: Hedges' g = 0.055, 95% CI: -0.060, 0.170, p = .347; long term: Hedges' g = -0.320, 95% CI: -.965, 0.325, p = .331). There were minimal impacts of publication bias, mostly related to sample size, meaning studies including small sample sizes revealed larger effect sizes on abstinence at EOT.

DISCUSSION

Addressing post-cessation weight management in treatments for smoking cessation significantly enhances tobacco abstinence at EOT though it was not found to have a lasting impact after treatment.

Impact of Duodenal Pathology on Oral Drug Bioavailability and Disease Outcomes in Pediatric Crohn’s Disease

Background: Crohn’s disease with upper gastrointestinal tract involvement occurs more often in children than adults and has the potential to interfere with oral drug absorption. We aimed to compare disease outcomes in children receiving oral azathioprine for the treatment of Crohn’s disease with (DP) and without (NDP) duodenal pathology at diagnosis. Methods: Duodenal villous length, body mass index (BMI), and laboratory studies were compared in DP vs. NDP during the first year post-diagnosis, using parametric/nonparametric tests and regression analysis (SAS v9.4); the data are reported as the median (interquartile range) or the mean ± standard deviation. Thiopurine metabolite concentration (pmol/8 × 108 erythrocytes) 230–400 was considered therapeutic for 6-thioguanine nucleotides (6-TGN), and >5700 was considered hepatotoxic for 6-methylmercaptopurine (6-MMPN). Results: Twenty-six of the fifty-eight children enrolled (29 DP, 29 NDP) started azathioprine for standard medical care, including nine DP and ten NDP who had normal thiopurine methyltransferase activity. Duodenal villous length was significantly shorter in DP vs. NDP (342 ± 153 vs. 460 ± 85 μm; p < 0.001) at diagnosis; age, sex, hemoglobin, and BMI were comparable between groups. A trend toward lower 6-TGN was observed in the DP vs. NDP subset receiving azathioprine (164 (117, 271) vs. 272 (187, 331); p = 0.15). Compared to NDP, DP received significantly higher azathioprine doses (2.5 (2.3, 2.6) vs. 2.2 (2.0, 2.2) mg/kg/day; p = 0.01) and had an increased relative risk of sub-therapeutic 6-TGN. At 9 months post-diagnosis, children with DP had significantly lower hemoglobin (12.5 (11.7, 12.6) vs. 13.1 (12.7, 13.3) g/dL; p = 0.01) and BMI z-scores (−0.29 (−0.93, −0.11) vs. 0.88 (0.53, 0.99); p = 0.02) than children with NDP. Conclusion: For children with Crohn’s disease, duodenal pathology, marked by villous blunting, increased the risk of sub-therapeutic 6-TGN levels, despite higher azathioprine dosing during the first year post-diagnosis. Lower hemoglobin and BMI z-scores at 9 months post-diagnosis suggest the impaired absorption/bioavailability of nutrients, as well as oral drugs, in children with duodenal disease.

Assessing significant factors that can influence physical fit examinations - Part I. Physical fits of torn and cut duct tapes

This study expands upon a previously developed method that quantifies the similarity of the compared tape edges by systematically studying the effect of several separation methods and tape grades on the quality of a fit. Analysts examined more than 3300 pairs of hand-torn or scissor-cut duct tapes from three different tape grades while they were kept blind from the ground truth to minimize bias. The samples were examined following a three-step methodology: 1) qualitative assessment of the overall edge alignment and description of edge pattern, 2) macroscopic evaluation of the edges' features, 3) bin by bin subunit assessment of tape edges and estimation of the edge similarity score. A report template was designed to maintain records of the decision-making process. In the second and third steps, eight comparison features were defined and documented using auto-populated cell options. Generally, misidentification rates were low, with no false positives reported. Coinciding with previous research, low scores (under 20%) provided the most support for a non-fit conclusion, while high scores (80% or higher) supported a fit conclusion. A statistical analysis of the separation method and quality of tape revealed a potential interaction between these factors and showed that they significantly impact the edge scores for true fitting pairs, but not the true non-fits' scores. The developed comparison and documentation criteria can assist practitioners with a more straightforward, consistent, and transparent interpretation and reporting approach.

Neurodegenerative disease risk among former international rugby union players

BACKGROUND

Autopsy studies of former contact sports athletes, including soccer and rugby players, frequently report chronic traumatic encephalopathy, a neurodegenerative pathology associated with traumatic brain injury. Nevertheless, little is known about the risk of neurodegenerative disease in these populations. We hypothesised that neurodegenerative disease risk would be higher among former elite rugby union players than the general population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study accessing national electronic records on death certification, hospital admissions and dispensed prescriptions for a cohort of 412 male Scottish former international rugby union players and 1236 members of the general population, matched to former players by age, sex and area socioeconomic status. Mortality and incident neurodegenerative disease diagnoses among former rugby players were then compared with the matched comparison group.

RESULTS

Over a median 32 years follow-up from study entry at age 30 years, 121 (29.4%) former rugby players and 381 (30.8%) of the matched comparison group died. All-cause mortality was lower among former rugby players until 70 years of age with no difference thereafter. During follow-up, 47 (11.4%) former rugby players and 67 (5.4%) of the comparison group were diagnosed with incident neurodegenerative disease (HR 2.67, 95% CI 1.67 to 4.27, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study adds to our understanding of the association between contact sports participation and the risk of neurodegenerative disease. While further research exploring this interaction is required, in the meantime strategies to reduce exposure to head impacts and head injuries in sport should be promoted.

Effectiveness of Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccines Against Illness Caused by the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant During an Outbreak in Guangdong, China : A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Real-world evidence on inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against the highly transmissible B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 is limited, leaving an important gap in the evidence base about inactivated COVID-19 vaccines for use by immunization programs.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate inactivated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the B.1.617.2 variant.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The study was based on the first outbreak of the B.1.617.2 variant in mainland China that was discovered and traced in Guangdong in May and June 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

10 805 adult case patients with laboratory-confirmed infection and close contacts.

MEASUREMENTS

Participants were categorized as unvaccinated, partially vaccinated (1 dose), and fully vaccinated (2 doses). We estimated VE against the primary outcome of pneumonia and the secondary outcomes of infections, symptomatic infections, and severe or critical illness associated with the B.1.617.2 variant.

RESULTS

Results are reported in the order of outcome severity. Of 10 805 participants, 1.3% contracted infections, 1.2% developed symptomatic infections, 1.1% had pneumonia, and 0.2% had severe or critical illness. The adjusted VEs of full vaccination were 51.8% (95% CI, 20.3% to 83.2%) against infection, 60.4% (CI, 31.8% to 88.9%) against symptomatic infection, and 78.4% (CI, 56.9% to 99.9%) against pneumonia. Also, full vaccination was 100% (CI, 98.4% to 100.0%) effective against severe or critical illness. By contrast, the adjusted VEs of partial vaccination against infection, symptomatic infection, and pneumonia were 10.7% (CI, -41.2% to 62.6%), 6.8% (CI, -47.4% to 61.0%), and 11.6% (CI, -42.6% to 65.8%), respectively.

LIMITATION

Observational study with possible unmeasured confounders; insufficient data to do reliable subgroup analyses by age and vaccine brand.

CONCLUSION

Full vaccination with inactivated vaccines is effective against the B.1.617.2 variant. Effort should be made to ensure full vaccination of target populations.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Natural Science Foundation of China and Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province.