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Yin X, Aiken JM, Harris R, Bamber JL. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model of COVID-19 spread in England. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10335. [PMID: 38710934 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60964-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2023] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 infections in England, and examine its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors. We obtained weekly reported COVID-19 cases from 7 March 2020 to 26 March 2022 at Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) level in mainland England from publicly available datasets. With these data, we conducted an ecological study to predict the COVID-19 infection risk and identify its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental risk factors using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. The Bayesian model outperformed the ordinary least squares model and geographically weighted regression model in terms of prediction accuracy. The spread of COVID-19 infections over space and time was heterogeneous. Hotspots of infection risk exhibited inconsistent clustering patterns over time. Risk factors found to be positively associated with COVID-19 infection risk were: annual household income [relative risk (RR) = 1.0008, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.0005-1.0012], unemployment rate [RR = 1.0027, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0030], population density on the log scale [RR = 1.0146, 95% CI 1.0129-1.0164], percentage of Caribbean population [RR = 1.0022, 95% CI 1.0009-1.0036], percentage of adults aged 45-64 years old [RR = 1.0031, 95% CI 1.0024-1.0039], and particulate matter ( PM 2.5 ) concentrations [RR = 1.0126, 95% CI 1.0083-1.0167]. The study highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors in analysing the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 infections in England. The findings could assist policymakers in developing tailored public health interventions at a localised level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xueqing Yin
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK.
| | - John M Aiken
- Expert Analytics, 0179, Oslo, Norway
- Njord Centre, Departments of Physics and Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0371, Oslo, Norway
| | - Richard Harris
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
| | - Jonathan L Bamber
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
- Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of Munich, 80333, Munich, Germany
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Areed WD, Price A, Arnett K, Thompson H, Malseed R, Mengersen K. Assessing the spatial structure of the association between attendance at preschool and children's developmental vulnerabilities in Queensland, Australia. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0285409. [PMID: 37556459 PMCID: PMC10411799 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 04/22/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Demographic and educational factors are essential, influential factors of early childhood development. This study aimed to investigate spatial patterns in the association between attendance at preschool and children's developmental vulnerabilities in one or more domain(s) in their first year of full-time school at a small area level in Queensland, Australia. This was achieved by applying geographically weighted regression (GWR) followed by K-means clustering of the regression coefficients. Three distinct geographical clusters were found in Queensland using the GWR coefficients. The first cluster covered more than half of the state of Queensland, including the Greater Brisbane region, and displays a strong negative association between developmental vulnerabilities and attendance at preschool. That is, areas with high proportions of preschool attendance tended to have lower proportions of children with at least one developmental vulnerability in the first year of full-time school. Clusters two and three were characterized by stronger negative associations between developmental vulnerabilities, English as the mother language, and geographic remoteness, respectively. This research provides evidence of the need for collaboration between health and education sectors in specific regions of Queensland to update current service provision policies and to ensure holistic and appropriate care is available to support children with developmental vulnerabilities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wala Draidi Areed
- School of Mathematical Science, Center for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Aiden Price
- School of Mathematical Science, Center for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Helen Thompson
- School of Mathematical Science, Center for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
| | - Reid Malseed
- Children’s Health Queensland, Queensland, Australia
| | - Kerrie Mengersen
- School of Mathematical Science, Center for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Queensland, Australia
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Chen H, Cao Y, Feng L, Zhao Q, Torres JRV. Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 vaccination uptake in England. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:895. [PMID: 37189026 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15801-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mass vaccination has been a key strategy in effectively containing global COVID-19 pandemic that posed unprecedented social and economic challenges to many countries. However, vaccination rates vary across space and socio-economic factors, and are likely to depend on the accessibility to vaccination services, which is under-researched in literature. This study aims to empirically identify the spatially heterogeneous relationship between COVID-19 vaccination rates and socio-economic factors in England. METHODS We investigated the percentage of over-18 fully vaccinated people at the small-area level across England up to 18 November 2021. We used multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to model the spatially heterogeneous relationship between vaccination rates and socio-economic determinants, including ethnic, age, economic, and accessibility factors. RESULTS This study indicates that the selected MGWR model can explain 83.2% of the total variance of vaccination rates. The variables exhibiting a positive association with vaccination rates in most areas include proportion of population over 40, car ownership, average household income, and spatial accessibility to vaccination. In contrast, population under 40, less deprived population, and black or mixed ethnicity are negatively associated with the vaccination rates. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate the importance of improving the spatial accessibility to vaccinations in developing regions and among specific population groups in order to promote COVID-19 vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huanfa Chen
- Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Yanjia Cao
- Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Lingru Feng
- Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, London, UK
- Chongqing Planning and Design Institute, Chongqing, China
- Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Chongqing, China
| | - Qunshan Zhao
- Urban Big Data Centre, School of Social & Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - José Rafael Verduzco Torres
- Urban Big Data Centre, School of Social & Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Rząsa K, Ciski M. Influence of the Demographic, Social, and Environmental Factors on the COVID-19 Pandemic-Analysis of the Local Variations Using Geographically Weighted Regression. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph191911881. [PMID: 36231184 PMCID: PMC9564649 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191911881] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2022] [Revised: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/16/2022] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, an increasing number of different research studies focusing on various aspects of the pandemic are emerging. Most of the studies focus on the medical aspects of the pandemic, as well as on the impact of COVID-19 on various areas of life; less emphasis is put on analyzing the influence of socio-environmental factors on the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, using the geographically weighted regression method, the extent to which demographic, social, and environmental factors explain the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 is explored. The research was performed for the case-study area of Poland, considering the administrative division of the country into counties. The results showed that the demographic factors best explained the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2; the social factors explained it to a medium degree; and the environmental factors explained it to the lowest degree. Urban population and the associated higher amount and intensity of human contact are the most influential factors in the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis of the factors related to the areas burdened by social problems resulting primarily from the economic exclusion revealed that poverty-burdened areas are highly vulnerable to the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using maps of the local R2 it was possible to visualize how the relationships between the explanatory variables (for this research-demographic, social, and environmental factors) and the dependent variable (number of cases of SARS-CoV-2) vary across the study area. Through the GWR method, counties were identified as particularly vulnerable to the pandemic because of the problem of economic exclusion. Considering that the COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, the results obtained may be useful for local authorities in developing strategies to counter the pandemic.
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Beese F, Waldhauer J, Wollgast L, Pförtner TK, Wahrendorf M, Haller S, Hoebel J, Wachtler B. Temporal Dynamics of Socioeconomic Inequalities in COVID-19 Outcomes Over the Course of the Pandemic—A Scoping Review. Int J Public Health 2022; 67:1605128. [PMID: 36105178 PMCID: PMC9464808 DOI: 10.3389/ijph.2022.1605128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives: International evidence of socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes is extensive and growing, but less is known about the temporal dynamics of these inequalities over the course of the pandemic. Methods: We systematically searched the Embase and Scopus databases. Additionally, several relevant journals and the reference lists of all included articles were hand-searched. This study follows the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews. Results: Forty-six studies were included. Of all analyses, 91.4% showed stable or increasing socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes over the course of the pandemic, with socioeconomically disadvantaged populations being most affected. Furthermore, the study results showed temporal dynamics in socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19, frequently initiated through higher COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates in better-off populations and subsequent crossover dynamics to higher rates in socioeconomically disadvantaged populations (41.9% of all analyses). Conclusion: The identified temporal dynamics of socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes have relevant public health implications. Socioeconomic inequalities should be monitored over time to enable the adaption of prevention and interventions according to the social particularities of specific pandemic phases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Beese
- Division of Social Determinants of Health, Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
- *Correspondence: Florian Beese,
| | - Julia Waldhauer
- Division of Social Determinants of Health, Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Lina Wollgast
- Division of Social Determinants of Health, Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Timo-Kolja Pförtner
- Institute of Medical Sociology, Health Services Research and Rehabilitation Science, Faculty of Medicine and Faculty of Human Sciences, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
- Research Methods Division, Faculty of Human Sciences, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Morten Wahrendorf
- Institute of Medical Sociology, Centre for Health and Society (CHS), Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine University, Dusseldorf, Germany
| | - Sebastian Haller
- Division of Healthcare-Associated Infections, Surveillance of Antibiotic Resistance and Consumption, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jens Hoebel
- Division of Social Determinants of Health, Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
| | - Benjamin Wachtler
- Division of Social Determinants of Health, Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
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Methods Used in the Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiology: A Systematic Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19148267. [PMID: 35886114 PMCID: PMC9324591 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19148267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2022] [Revised: 07/01/2022] [Accepted: 07/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic was spatially heterogeneous around the world; the transmission of the disease is driven by complex spatial and temporal variations in socioenvironmental factors. Spatial tools are useful in supporting COVID-19 control programs. A substantive review of the merits of the methodological approaches used to understand the spatial epidemiology of the disease is hardly undertaken. In this study, we reviewed the methodological approaches used to identify the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of COVID-19 and the socioeconomic, demographic and climatic drivers of such variations. We conducted a systematic literature search of spatial studies of COVID-19 published in English from Embase, Scopus, Medline, and Web of Science databases from 1 January 2019 to 7 September 2021. Methodological quality assessments were also performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) risk of bias tool. A total of 154 studies met the inclusion criteria that used frequentist (85%) and Bayesian (15%) modelling approaches to identify spatial clusters and the associated risk factors. Bayesian models in the studies incorporated various spatial, temporal and spatiotemporal effects into the modelling schemes. This review highlighted the need for more local-level advanced Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling through the multi-level framework for COVID-19 prevention and control strategies.
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Mollalo A, Tatar M. Spatial Modeling of COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in the United States. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:9488. [PMID: 34574416 PMCID: PMC8467210 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18189488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2021] [Revised: 09/05/2021] [Accepted: 09/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Vaccine hesitancy refers to delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite the availability of vaccine services. Despite the efforts of United States healthcare providers to vaccinate the bulk of its population, vaccine hesitancy is still a severe challenge that has led to the resurgence of COVID-19 cases to over 100,000 people during early August 2021. To our knowledge, there are limited nationwide studies that examined the spatial distribution of vaccination rates, mainly based on the social vulnerability index (SVI). In this study, we compiled a database of the percentage of fully vaccinated people at the county scale across the continental United States as of 29 July 2021, along with SVI data as potential significant covariates. We further employed multiscale geographically weighted regression to model spatial nonstationarity of vaccination rates. Our findings indicated that the model could explain over 79% of the variance of vaccination rate based on Per capita income and Minority (%) (with positive impacts), and Age 17 and younger (%), Mobile homes (%), and Uninsured people (%) (with negative effects). However, the impact of each covariate varied for different counties due to using separate optimal bandwidths. This timely study can serve as a geospatial reference to support public health decision-makers in forming region-specific policies in monitoring vaccination programs from a geographic perspective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abolfazl Mollalo
- Department of Public Health and Prevention Science, School of Health Sciences, Baldwin Wallace University, Berea, OH 44017, USA
| | - Moosa Tatar
- Matheson Center for Health Care Studies, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA;
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