Valuing climate change impacts on human health: empirical evidence from the literature

Economic impacts associated with the health effects of climate change in South America: a scoping review

This scoping review assesses the current evidence on the health impacts of climate change and associated economic costs in South America. In total, 3281 studies were identified using a systematic search strategy, but only 23 articles met the inclusion criteria and were analysed. The results from these articles indicate that the health effects of climate change will likely be costly for South America; however, evidence is limited to a handful of countries or regional analyses that ignore heterogeneity across and within countries. Most of the analysed studies looking at extreme weather events related to climate change focus on the effects and costs of droughts and fire events. A broader understanding of the topic could be achieved by estimating other extreme weather events' health effects and costs, using appropriate research methods to identify causal impacts, and including a more comprehensive and representative regional population sample. Beyond identifying effects, it is important to investigate demand responses for healthcare services, associated costs, availability and expansion of infrastructure, and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at coping with and adapting to the health dimension of climate change.

Prediction and early warning model of mixed exposure to air pollution and meteorological factors on death of respiratory diseases based on machine learning

In recent years, with the repeated occurrence of extreme weather and the continuous increase of air pollution, the incidence of weather-related diseases has increased yearly. Air pollution and extreme temperature threaten sensitive groups' lives, among which air pollution is most closely related to respiratory diseases. Owing to the skewed attention, timely intervention is necessary to better predict and warn the occurrence of death from respiratory diseases. In this paper, according to the existing research, based on a number of environmental monitoring data, the regression model is established by integrating the machine learning methods XGBoost, support vector machine (SVM), and generalized additive model (GAM) model. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) is used to set the warning threshold to transform the data and establish the warning model. According to the DLNM model, the cumulative lag effect of meteorological factors is explored. There is a cumulative lag effect between air temperature and PM2.5, which reaches the maximum when the lag is 3 days and 5 days, respectively. If the low temperature and high environmental pollutants (PM2.5) continue to influence for a long time, the death risk of respiratory diseases will continue to rise, and the early warning model based on DLNM has better performance.

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now.

Estimation of household health cost and climate adaptation cost with its health related determinants: empirical evidences from western Nepal

Limited evidence is available concerning the household-level costs of prevailing diseases and the potential cost of climate adaptation in Nepal. This study estimates these costs and assesses the relationships between prevalent diseases and climate adaptation at the household level using survey data from 420 households. An ingredients-based approach was used to estimate the cost of health and adaptation, and a Probit regression model was used to analyze the relationship between prevalent diseases and climate adaptation costs. Household direct curative costs are the highest among health cost components. Two-thirds of total health costs are direct costs for households. On average, 15.90% of household income is used for direct cost of health care. The climate hazard cost among afflicted households is estimated to be high. In addition, diseases like malaria, typhoid and jaundice, their costs, climate awareness program, droughts, family size and loss of per capita income are more likely to raise the cost of climate adaptation. The occurrence of gastritis, prevalence of diarrhea and cold waves are less likely to affect the cost. Policymakers should implement health financing schemes and adaptation strategies to prevent the loss of human health in western Nepal.

Burden of dengue in the State of Meta, Colombia (2010-2016)

Abstract: In Colombia, dengue is a disease of great impact due to its morbidity and mortality, however, studies on the effects of the economic burden at the local level are scarce. Therefore, our study sought to describe the economic burden of dengue epidemics between 2010 and 2016 in the State of Meta, Colombia. A longitudinal study was performed using information from the records of the epidemiological information system (Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Pública - SIVIGILA), and the indicator of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) was determined as an estimator of the burden of dengue. To assess the economic impact, two assessment scenarios were considered (minimum range and maximum range), which allowed the estimate of the effects of the years of life lost (YLLs). Mortality cases presented heterogeneity in the age groups, mainly affecting groups under 15 years and over 65 years, with YLLs raging between 158.58 and 300.38. In total, 2010 showed the highest medical care costs of the study period, with USD 664,123 for women and USD 740,221 for men. In the epidemic years (2010, 2012-2015) between 91,072.3 and 184,175.1 DALYs were lost per million inhabitants, which generated social burden costs higher than the USD 669.6 million. In conclusion, dengue can be considered a disease of high cost at the local level, economically affecting the General Social Security System in Health and social welfare.

Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati

Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

Comparison of UTCI with other thermal indices in the assessment of heat and cold effects on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic

We compare the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with other thermal indices in analysing heat- and cold-related effects on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality in two different (urban and rural) regions in the Czech Republic during the 16-year period from 1994–2009. Excess mortality is represented by the number of deaths above expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Air temperature, UTCI, Apparent Temperature (AT) and Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) are applied to identify days with heat and cold stress. We found similar heat effects on CVD mortality for air temperature and the examined thermal indices. Responses of CVD mortality to cold effects as characterised by different indices were much more varied. Particularly important is the finding that air temperature provides a weak cold effect in comparison with the thermal indices in both regions, so its application—still widespread in epidemiological studies—may underestimate the magnitude of cold-related mortality. These findings are important when possible climate change effects on heat- and cold-related mortality are estimated. AT and PET appear to be more universal predictors of heat- and cold- related mortality than UTCI when both urban and rural environments are of concern. UTCI tends to select windy rather than freezing days in winter, though these show little effect on mortality in the urban population. By contrast, significant cold-related mortality in the rural region if UTCI is used shows potential for UTCI to become a useful tool in cold exposure assessments.

Climate change air toxic co-reduction in the context of macroeconomic modelling

This paper examines the health implications of global PM reduction accompanying greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the 180 national economies of the global macroeconomy. A human health effects module based on empirical data on GHG emissions, PM emissions, background PM concentrations, source apportionment and human health risk coefficients is used to estimate reductions in morbidity and mortality from PM exposures globally as co-reduction of GHG reductions. These results are compared against the "fuzzy bright line" that often underlies regulatory decisions for environmental toxics, and demonstrate that the risk reduction through PM reduction would usually be considered justified in traditional risk-based decisions for environmental toxics. It is shown that this risk reduction can be on the order of more than 4 × 10(-3) excess lifetime mortality risk, with global annual cost savings of slightly more than $10B, when uniform GHG reduction measures across all sectors of the economy form the basis for climate policy ($2.2B if only Annex I nations reduce). Consideration of co-reduction of PM-10 within a climate policy framework harmonized with other environmental policies can therefore be an effective driver of climate policy. An error analysis comparing results of the current model against those of significantly more spatially resolved models at city and national scales indicates errors caused by the low spatial resolution of the global model used here may be on the order of a factor of 2.

The effect of precipitation on the transmission of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus in nature: a complex effect on antibody-positive rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in Asia. Pigs are a natural host and the amplifier of JE virus. The sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs reflects the activity of JE virus in the region. We analyzed whether precipitation has any effect on the sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the correlations between the levels of precipitation and sero-conversion rates to JE virus, in the entire year and during summertime over the period of 32 years from 1969 to 2000. The levels of the annual and summertime precipitation demonstrated statistically significant positive correlations with sero-conversion rates for the whole of the country and for some regions in Japan. The levels of the summertime precipitation, on the other hand, demonstrated statistically significant inverse correlations with the sero-conversion rates in other regions. Further, the levels of precipitation during preceding 10-day periods from days 1-40 before blood collection showed inverse correlation with antibody-positive rates in some regions. The results indicate that the relationship between the annual and summertime precipitation, and the sero-conversion rate to JE virus is complex; both positive and inverse effects are demonstrated depending on the regions.

Managing the health effects of temperature in response to climate change: challenges ahead

BACKGROUND

Although many studies have shown that high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, there has been little research on managing the process of planned adaptation to alleviate the health effects of heat events and climate change. In particular, economic evaluation of public health adaptation strategies has been largely absent from both the scientific literature and public policy discussion.

OBJECTIVES

We examined how public health organizations should implement adaptation strategies and, second, how to improve the evidence base required to make an economic case for policies that will protect the public's health from heat events and climate change.

DISCUSSION

Public health adaptation strategies to cope with heat events and climate change fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health risks. Strategies require a range of actions, including timely public health and medical advice, improvements to housing and urban planning, early warning systems, and assurance that health care and social systems are ready to act. Some of these actions are costly, and given scarce financial resources the implementation should be based on the cost-effectiveness analysis. Therefore, research is required not only on the temperature-related health costs, but also on the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The scientific community must ensure that the health co-benefits of climate change policies are recognized, understood, and quantified.

CONCLUSIONS

The integration of climate change adaptation into current public health practice is needed to ensure the adaptation strategies increase future resilience. The economic evaluation of temperature-related health costs and public health adaptation strategies are particularly important for policy decisions.

Six climate change-related events in the United States accounted for about $14 billion in lost lives and health costs

The future health costs associated with predicted climate change-related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods are projected to be enormous. This article estimates the health costs associated with six climate change-related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009. The six case studies came from categories of climate change-related events projected to worsen with continued global warming-ozone pollution, heat waves, hurricanes, infectious disease outbreaks, river flooding, and wildfires. We estimate that the health costs exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million. This reflects more than 760,000 encounters with the health care system. Our analysis provides scientists and policy makers with a methodology to use in estimating future health costs related to climate change and highlights the growing need for public health preparedness.

The costs of climate change: a study of cholera in Tanzania

Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania and uses socioeconomic data to control for the impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. The results show a significant relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera. For a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase the initial relative risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates on financing and planning adaptation.

Costes de adaptación a los impactos del cambio climático en sistemas hídricos: Estimaciones existentes y retos para la investigación

<div data-canvas-width="384.0285749792544">Information on the cost of adaptation in freshwater systems is necessary to better design strategies to face climate change and water management. We look at the existing estimates with the aim of identifying research gaps. Our analysis shows that case study-specific literature is scarce, fragmented, and not always methodologically transparent. At the same time, most existing global assessments are likely to represent underestimates and rely heavily on each other. We conclude that a clear conceptual framework is still missing. Remaining research gaps include addressing inter-sector linkages and estimations of other than only direct costs, in addition to addressing the issues of ‘adaptation deficit’ and ‘residual damage’.</div>

The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making

BACKGROUND

In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions.

METHODS

Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation.

RESULTS

In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply) health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates). However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of environmental health interventions.

Adaptation cost of diarrhea and malaria in 2030 for India

BACKGROUND

Climate change is significant and an emerging threat to public health. The climate change-related health consequences of diarrheal diseases and malaria are projected to pose the largest risks to future populations. This study provides an initial estimate of the cost of intervention to cope with the health impacts of climate change in 2030 on diarrhea and malaria for India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The costs of treating diarrheal diseases and malaria in 2030 were estimated under three climate scenarios using: (1) the current numbers of cases; (2) the projected relative risks of these diseases in 2030; and (3) current treatment costs. The analysis assumed that the number of annual cases and costs of treatment would remain constant. There was limited consideration for population growth and socioeconomic development.

RESULTS

Underscenario assuming emissions reduction resulting in stabilization at 750 ppm CO(2) equivalent in 2210, the costs of treating diarrheal diseases and malaria were estimated to be between Rs. 3648 lakhs and Rs. 7787 lakhs. The Mitigation scenario results in fewer cases and lower investment needs than the BAU scenario. For the middle scenario, the annual needs are about Rs. 1036 lakhs per year, lower from Rs. 4684 lakhs down to Rs. 3648 lakhs. Should the high scenario occur, the annual investment needs are about Rs. 3901 lakhs lower from the BAU to the Mitigation scenario.

CONCLUSION

The adaptation and mitigation can reduce sensitivity to climate change. The case for making public expenditures is strong on economic and moral grounds because the costs without interventions are much higher if we consider the relative risk of these diseases.

Constraints and barriers to public health adaptation to climate change: a review of the literature

Public health adaptation to climate change is an important issue and inevitably is needed to address the adverse health impacts of climate change over the next few decades. This paper provides an overview of the constraints and barriers to public health adaptation and explores future research directions in this emerging field. An extensive literature review was conducted in 2010 and published literature from 2000 to 2010 was retrieved. This review shows that public health adaptation essentially can operate at two levels, namely, adaptive-capacity building and implementation of adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to public health adaptation arising from uncertainties of future climate and socioeconomic conditions, as well as financial, technologic, institutional, social capital, and individual cognitive limits. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome these constraints and barriers. It is proposed here that high research priority should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health impacts of climate change, projections of health impacts under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios, identification of health co-benefits of mitigation strategies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options.

Adaptation to impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and allergic respiratory diseases

Climate change has the potential to have many significant impacts on aeroallergens such as pollen and mould spores, and therefore related diseases such as asthma and allergic rhinitis. This paper critically reviews this topic, with a focus on the potential adaptation measures that have been identified to date. These are aeroallergen monitoring; aeroallergen forecasting; allergenic plant management; planting practices and policies; urban/settlement planning; building design and heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC); access to health care and medications; education; and research.