The Spatial Dimension of COVID-19: The Potential of Earth Observation Data in Support of Slum Communities with Evidence from Brazil

The Use of Spatial Video to Map Dynamic and Challenging Environments: A Case Study of Cholera Risk in the Mujoga Relief Camp, D.R.C

In this paper, we provide an overview of how spatial video data collection enriched with contextual mapping can be used as a universal tool to investigate sub-neighborhood scale health risks, including cholera, in challenging environments. To illustrate the method’s flexibility, we consider the life cycle of the Mujoga relief camp set up after the Nyiragongo volcanic eruption in the Democratic Republic of Congo on 22 May 2021. More specifically we investigate how these methods have captured the deteriorating conditions in a camp which is also experiencing lab-confirmed cholera cases. Spatial video data are collected every month from June 2021 to March 2022. These coordinate-tagged images are used to make monthly camp maps, which are then returned to the field teams for added contextual insights. At the same time, a zoom-based geonarrative is used to discuss the camp’s changes, including the cessation of free water supplies and the visible deterioration of toilet facilities. The paper concludes by highlighting the next data science advances to be made with SV mapping, including machine learning to automatically identify and map risks, and how these are already being applied in Mujoga.

Managing risk, governmentality and geoinformation: Vectors of vulnerability in the mapping of COVID‐19

In the wake of the COVID‐19 pandemic, a range of technological as well as legislative measures were introduced to monitor, track and prevent the spread of the COVID‐19 virus across the world. The measures taken by governments across the world have relied upon the use of geoinformation from satellites, drones, online dashboards and contact tracing apps to render the virus more visible, which has been instrumental in two ways. First, geoinformation has been helpful in organizing efforts for capacity building, in mapping communities living in deprived urban areas (referred to commonly as ‘slums’) and their response to COVID‐19 measures. These efforts have been part of initiatives by the United Nations as well as NGOs, using geoinformation to inform urban policymaking by representing the social, political and environmental issues facing those living in deprived urban areas. And secondly, geoinformation has also been used to control the spread of the pandemic by monitoring and limiting the behaviour of citizens through various technologies. This form of geoinformation‐driven governmentality, I will contend from critical geography and surveillance studies perspective endangers ethical values such as trust and solidarity, agency, transparency along with the rights and values of citizens.

Is It All the Same? Mapping and Characterizing Deprived Urban Areas Using WorldView-3 Superspectral Imagery. A Case Study in Nairobi, Kenya

In the past two decades, Earth observation (EO) data have been utilized for studying the spatial patterns of urban deprivation. Given the scope of many existing studies, it is still unclear how very-high-resolution EO data can help to improve our understanding of the multidimensionality of deprivation within settlements on a city-wide scale. In this work, we assumed that multiple facets of deprivation are reflected by varying morphological structures within deprived urban areas and can be captured by EO information. We set out by staying on the scale of an entire city, while zooming into each of the deprived areas to investigate deprivation through land cover (LC) variations. To test the generalizability of our workflow, we assembled multiple WorldView-3 datasets (multispectral and shortwave infrared) with varying numbers of bands and image features, allowing us to explore computational efficiency, complexity, and scalability while keeping the model architecture consistent. Our workflow was implemented in the city of Nairobi, Kenya, where more than sixty percent of the city population lives in deprived areas. Our results indicate that detailed LC information that characterizes deprivation can be mapped with an accuracy of over seventy percent by only using RGB-based image features. Including the near-infrared (NIR) band appears to bring significant improvements in the accuracy of all classes. Equally important, we were able to categorize deprived areas into varying profiles manifested through LC variability using a gridded mapping approach. The types of deprivation profiles varied significantly both within and between deprived areas. The results could be informative for practical interventions such as land-use planning policies for urban upgrading programs.

An evaluative model for assessing pandemic resilience at the neighborhood level: The case of Tehran

The spread of the COVID-19 virus, which has caused abundant mortalities in human settlements, has drawn the attention of urban planners and policy-makers to the necessity of improving resilience to future pandemics. In this study, a set of indicators related to pandemic resilience were identified and used to develop a composite multi-dimensional pandemic resilience index for Tehran's neighborhoods. The physical, infrastructural, socio-economic, and environmental dimensions of pandemic resilience were defined considering the conditions of 351 neighborhoods through the exploratory factor analysis method. Accordingly, the pandemic resilience (PR) score of the neighborhoods was calculated. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation analysis was used to validate the PR scores by examining the correlation between the neighborhood PR scores and the number of confirmed cases. For this purpose, we used a sample consisting of 43,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the first five months of its spread. The test shows a statistically significant negative correlation between neighborhoods' resilience score and the cumulative number of confirmed patients in the neighborhoods (r= -.456, P<0.001). This study also tries to develop a new model to better understand health determinants of pandemic resilience. The proposed model can inform planners and policymakers to take appropriate measures to create more pandemic-resilient urban neighborhoods.

Earth Observations and Statistics: Unlocking Sociodemographic Knowledge through the Power of Satellite Images

The continuous urbanisation in most Low-to-Middle-Income-Country (LMIC) cities is accompanied by rapid socio-economic changes in urban and peri-urban areas. Urban transformation processes, such as gentrification as well as the increase in poor urban neighbourhoods (e.g., slums) produce new urban patterns. The intersection of very rapid socio-economic and demographic dynamics are often insufficiently understood, and relevant data for understanding them are commonly unavailable, dated, or too coarse (resolution). Traditional survey-based methods (e.g., census) are carried out at low temporal granularity and do not allow for frequent updates of large urban areas. Researchers and policymakers typically work with very dated data, which do not reflect on-the-ground realities and data aggregation hide socio-economic disparities. Therefore, the potential of Earth Observations (EO) needs to be unlocked. EO data have the ability to provide information at detailed spatial and temporal scales so as to support monitoring transformations. In this paper, we showcase how recent innovations in EO and Artificial Intelligence (AI) can provide relevant, rapid information about socio-economic conditions, and in particular on poor urban neighbourhoods, when large scale and/or multi-temporal data are required, e.g., to support Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) monitoring. We provide solutions to key challenges, including the provision of multi-scale data, the reduction in data costs, and the mapping of socio-economic conditions. These innovations fill data gaps for the production of statistical information, addressing the problems of access to field-based data under COVID-19.

A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 in the second half of 2020

COVID-19 has infected over 163 million people and has resulted in over 3.9 million deaths. Regarding the tools and strategies to research the ongoing pandemic, spatial analysis has been increasingly utilized to study the impacts of COVID-19. This article provides a review of 221 scientific articles that used spatial science to study the pandemic published from June 2020 to December 2020. The main objectives are: to identify the tools and techniques used by the authors; to review the subjects addressed and their disciplines; and to classify the studies based on their applications. This contribution will facilitate comparisons with the body of work published during the first half of 2020, revealing the evolution of the COVID-19 phenomenon through the lens of spatial analysis. Our results show that there was an increase in the use of both spatial statistical tools (e.g., geographically weighted regression, Bayesian models, spatial regression) applied to socioeconomic variables and analysis at finer spatial and temporal scales. We found an increase in remote sensing approaches, which are now widely applied in studies around the world. Lockdowns and associated changes in human mobility have been extensively examined using spatiotemporal techniques. Another dominant topic studied has been the relationship between pollution and COVID-19 dynamics, which enhance the impact of human activities on the pandemic's evolution. This represents a shift from the first half of 2020, when the research focused on climatic and weather factors. Overall, we have seen a vast increase in spatial tools and techniques to study COVID-19 transmission and the associated risk factors.

Spatial Information Gaps on Deprived Urban Areas (Slums) in Low-and-Middle-Income-Countries: A User-Centered Approach

Routine and accurate data on deprivation are needed for urban planning and decision support at various scales (i.e., from community to international). However, analyzing information requirements of diverse users on urban deprivation, we found that data are often not available or inaccessible. To bridge this data gap, Earth Observation (EO) data can support access to frequently updated spatial information. However, a user-centered approach is urgently required for the production of EO-based mapping products. Combining an online survey and several forms of user interactions, we defined five system specifications (derived from user requirements) for designing an open-access spatial information system for deprived urban areas. First, gridded maps represent the optimal spatial granularity to deal with high uncertainties of boundaries of deprived areas and to protect privacy. Second, a high temporal granularity of 1–2 years is important to respond to the high spatial dynamics of urban areas. Third, detailed local-scale information should be part of a city-to-global information system. Fourth, both aspects, community assets and risks, need to be part of an information system, and such data need to be combined with local community-based information. Fifth, in particular, civil society and government users should have fair access to data that bridges the digital barriers. A data ecosystem on urban deprivation meeting these requirements will be able to support community-level action for improving living conditions in deprived areas, local science-based policymaking, and tracking progress towards global targets such as the SDGs.

Evaluating Social Distancing Measures and Their Association with the Covid-19 Pandemic in South America

Social distancing is a powerful non-pharmaceutical intervention used as a way to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus around the world since the end of 2019 in China. Taking that into account, this work aimed to identify variations on population mobility in South America during the pandemic (15 February to 27 October 2020). We used a data-driven approach to create a community mobility index from the Google Covid-19 Community Mobility and relate it to the Covid stringency index from Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). Two hypotheses were established: countries which have adopted stricter social distancing measures have also a lower level of circulation (H1), and mobility is occurring randomly in space (H2). Considering a transient period, a low capacity of governments to respond to the pandemic with more stringent measures of social distancing was observed at the beginning of the crisis. In turn, considering a steady-state period, the results showed an inverse relationship between the Covid stringency index and the community mobility index for at least three countries (H1 rejected). Regarding the spatial analysis, global and local Moran indices revealed regional mobility patterns for Argentina, Brazil, and Chile (H1 rejected). In Brazil, the absence of coordinated policies between the federal government and states regarding social distancing may have played an important role for several and extensive clusters formation. On the other hand, the results for Argentina and Chile could be signals for the difficulties of governments in keeping their population under control, and for long periods, even under stricter decrees.

Spread of COVID-19 in urban neighbourhoods and slums of the developing world

We study the spread of COVID-19 across neighbourhoods of cities in the developing world and find that small numbers of neighbourhoods account for a majority of cases (k-index approx. 0.7). We also find that the countrywide distribution of cases across states/provinces in these nations also displays similar inequality, indicating self-similarity across scales. Neighbourhoods with slums are found to contain the highest density of cases across all cities under consideration, revealing that slums constitute the most at-risk urban locations in this epidemic. We present a stochastic network model to study the spread of a respiratory epidemic through physically proximate and accidental daily human contacts in a city, and simulate outcomes for a city with two kinds of neighbourhoods-slum and non-slum. The model reproduces observed empirical outcomes for a broad set of parameter values-reflecting the potential validity of these findings for epidemic spread in general, especially across cities of the developing world. We also find that distribution of cases becomes less unequal as the epidemic runs its course, and that both peak and cumulative caseloads are worse for slum neighbourhoods than non-slums at the end of an epidemic. Large slums in the developing world, therefore, contain the most vulnerable populations in an outbreak, and the continuing growth of metropolises in Asia and Africa presents significant challenges for future respiratory outbreaks from perspectives of public health and socioeconomic equity.

Analysing Urban Development Patterns in a Conflict Zone: A Case Study of Kabul

A large part of the population in low-income countries (LICs) lives in fragile and conflict-affected states. Many cities in these states show high growth dynamics, but little is known about the relation of conflicts and urban growth. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime, which lasted from 1996 to 2001, caused large scale displacement of the population. People from Afghanistan migrated to neighboring countries like Iran and Pakistan, and all developments came to a halt. After the US invasion in October 2001, all the major cities in Afghanistan experienced significant population growth, in particular, driven by the influx of internally displaced persons. Maximum pressure of this influx was felt by the capital city, Kabul. This rapid urbanization, combined with very limited capacity of local authorities to deal with this growth, led to unplanned urbanization and challenges for urban planning and management. This study analyses the patterns of growth between 2001 and 2017, and the factors influencing the growth in the city of Kabul with the help of high-resolution Earth Observation-based data (EO) and spatial logistic regression modelling. We analyze settlement patterns by extracting image features from high-resolution images (aerial photographs of 2017) and terrain features as input to a random forest classifier. The urban growth is analyzed using an available built-up map (extracted from IKONOS images for the year 2001). Results indicate that unplanned settlements have grown 4.5 times during this period, whereas planned settlements have grown only 1.25 times. The unplanned settlements expanded mostly towards the west and north west parts of the city, and the growth of planned settlements happened mainly in the central and eastern parts of the city. Population density and the locations of military bases are the most important factors that influence the growth, of both planned and unplanned settlements. The growth of unplanned settlement occurs predominantly in areas of steeper slopes on the hillside, while planned settlements are on gentle slopes and closer to the institutional areas (central and eastern parts of the city). We conclude that security and availability of infrastructure were the main drivers of growth for planned settlements, whereas unplanned growth, mainly on hillsides, was driven by the availability of land with poor infrastructure.