Association between Serum Soluble CD154 Levels and Mortality in Patients with Malignant Middle Cerebral Artery Infarction

Interpretable machine learning models for predicting in-hospital death in patients in the intensive care unit with cerebral infarction

BACKGROUND

Research on patients with cerebral infarction in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is still lacking. Our study aims to develop and validate multiple machine-learning (ML) models using two large ICU databases-Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care version III (MIMIC-III) and eICU Research Institute Database (eRI)-to guide clinical practice.

METHODS

We collected clinical data from patients with cerebral infarction in the MIMIC-III and eRI databases within 24 h of admission. The opinion of neurologists and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was used to screen for relevant clinical features. Using eRI as the training set and MIMIC-III as the test set, we developed and validated six ML models. Based on the results of the model validation, we select the best model and perform the interpretability analysis on it.

RESULTS

A total of 4,338 patients were included in the study (eRI:3002, MIMIC-III:1336), resulting in a total of 18 clinical characteristics through screening. Model validation results showed that random forest (RF) was the best model, with AUC and F1 scores of 0.799 and 0.417 in internal validation and 0.733 and 0.498 in external validation, respectively; moreover, its sensitivity and recall were the highest of the six algorithms for both the internal and external validation. The explanatory analysis of the model showed that the three most important variables in the RF model were Acute Physiology Score-III, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and heart rate, and that the influence of each variable on the judgement of the model was consistent with medical knowledge.

CONCLUSION

Based on a large sample of patients and advanced algorithms, our study bridges the limitations of studies on this area. With our model, physicians can use the admission information of cerebral infarction patients in the ICU to identify high-risk groups among them who are prone to in-hospital death, so that they could be more alert to this group of patients and upgrade medical measures early to minimize the mortality of patients.

Biomarkers Predictive of Long-Term Outcome After Ischemic Stroke: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The goal of this study was to systematically review the utility of serum biomarkers in the setting of ischemic stroke (IS) to predict long-term outcome.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed using the PubMed and MEDLINE databases for studies published between 1986-2018. All studies assessing long-term functional outcome (defined as 30 days or greater) following IS with respect to serum biomarkers were included. Data were extracted and pooled using a meta-analysis of odds ratios.

RESULTS

Of the total 2928 articles in the original literature search, 183 studies were ultimately selected. A total of 127 serum biomarkers were included. Biomarkers were grouped into several categories: inflammatory (32), peptide/enzymatic (30), oxidative/metabolic (28), hormone/steroid based (23), and hematologic/vascular (14). The most commonly studied biomarkers in each category were found to be CRP, S100β, albumin, copeptin, and D-dimer. With the exception of S100β, all were found to be statistically associated with >30-day outcome after ischemic stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum-based biomarkers have the potential to predict functional outcome in IS patients. This meta-analysis has identified CRP, albumin, copeptin, and D-dimer to be significantly associated with long-term outcome after IS. These biomarkers have the potential to serve as a platform for prognosticating stroke outcomes after 30 days. These serum biomarkers, some of which are routinely ordered, can be combined with imaging biomarkers and used in artificial intelligence algorithms to provide refined predictive outcomes after injury. Ultimately these tools will assist physicians in providing guidance to families with regards to long-term independence of patients.

High Serum sCD40L Levels During the First Week of Malignant Middle Cerebral Artery Infarction and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Higher circulating soluble cluster of differentiation 40 ligand (sCD40L) levels at admission of an ischemic stroke have been found in nonsurvivor than in survivor patients. The objectives of this study were to determine whether serum sCD40L levels during the first week of a severe malignant middle cerebral artery infarction (MMCAI) are higher in nonsurvivor than in survivor patients and whether they could be used as biomarker of mortality prediction.

METHODS

This multicenter study included patients with severe MMCAI (defined as Glasgow Coma Scale score <9). We determined serum sCD40L concentrations at days 1, 4, and 8 and performed receiver operating characteristic analyses to determine their capacity for 30-day mortality prediction.

RESULTS

Nonsurvivors (n = 34) showed higher sCD40L levels on days 1 (P < 0.001), 4 (P = 0.004), and 8 (P < 0.001) than did survivor patients (n = 34). Areas under the curve of serum sCD40L concentrations at days 1, 4, and 8 of severe MMCAI for 30-day mortality prediction were 83% (P < 0.001), 89% (P < 0.001), and 87% (P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings that nonsurvivors showed higher serum sCD40L levels during the first week of MMCAI than did survivors and that serum sCD40L levels during the first week of MMCAI could be used as a mortality predictor biomarker are 2 novel findings.

Serum Caspase-3 Levels and Early Mortality of Patients with Malignant Middle Cerebral Artery Infarction

PURPOSE

Circulating caspase-3 levels at 24 h of ischemic stroke were found to be associated with poorer functional neurological outcome in a previous study. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is an association between serum caspase-3 levels and early mortality in patients with malignant middle cerebral artery infarction (MMCAI).

METHODS

We included patients with MMCAI defined as computer tomography showing ischemic changes in more than 50% of the middle cerebral artery territory and Glasgow Coma Scale ≤ 8. Serum caspase-3 levels at days 1, 4, and 8 of MMCAI were determined.

RESULTS

Non-surviving MMCAI (n = 34) showed higher serum caspase-3 levels at days 1 (p < 0.001), 4 (p = 0.001), and 8 (p = 0.01) than surviving patients (n = 34). We found that the area under the curve of serum caspase-3 levels for prediction of mortality at 30 days was 88% (95% CI = 78-95%; p < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression showed that serum caspase-3 levels were associated with 30-day mortality (OR = 51.25; 95% CI = 8.30-316.31; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The novel and more important findings of our study were that high serum caspase-3 levels were associated with mortality in MMCAI patients.

Nonsurviving Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Have Maintained High Serum sCD40L Levels

BACKGROUND

Soluble cluster of differentiation 40 ligand (sCD40L) is a member of the tumor necrosis factor family with proinflamatory and procoagulant effects. A previous study found higher serum sCD40L levels at day 1 of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in nonsurviving than surviving patients. Thus the objective of this study was to compare serum sCD40L levels during the first week of a severe TBI between surviving and nonsurviving patients and to determine whether it could be used as a mortality predictor biomarker.

METHODS

In this multicenter study severe TBI patients (with Glasgow Coma Scale score <9) with an Injury Severity Score in noncranial item <9 were included. Serum sCD40L concentrations at days 1, 4, and 8 of TBI were determined. We performed receiver operating characteristic analyses to determine the capacity of 30-day TBI mortality prediction by serum sCD40L levels at days 1, 4, and 8 of TBI.

RESULTS

We found that nonsurviving (n = 34) patients in comparison with surviving (n = 90) patients had higher sCD40L levels on days 1 (P < 0.001), 4 (P = 0.004), and 8 (P < 0.001) of TBI. We also found that the areas under curve of serum sCD40L concentrations at days 1, 4, and 8 of TBI to 30-day mortality prediction were 82% (P < 0.001), 72% (P = 0.01) and 83% (P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The existence of higher serum sCD40L levels in nonsurviving than surviving patients during the first week of TBI and fact that serum sCD40L levels during the first week of TBI can be used as a mortality predictor biomarker are the new findings of our study.

Clinical determination of serum nardilysin levels in predicting 30-day mortality among adults with malignant cerebral infarction

BACKGROUND

Nardilysin, a kind of metalloendopeptidase, plays an important role in numerous inflammatory diseases. Malignant cerebral infarction (Glasgow coma scale score of <9) is associated with a high mortality risk. Here, we intended to investigate the relationship between serum nardilysin levels and prognosis of patients with malignant cerebral infarction.

METHODS

Serum nardilysin concentrations were quantified at malignant cerebral infarction diagnosis moment in 105 patients and at study entrance in 105 healthy controls. Association of nardilysin concentrations with 30-day mortality and overall survival was estimated using multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

The patients exhibited substantially increased serum nardilysin concentrations, as compared to the controls. Nardilysin concentrations were in pronounced correlation with Glasgow coma scale scores and serum C-reactive protein concentrations. Serum nardilysin was independently predictive of 30-day mortality and overall survival. Under receiver operating characteristic curve, its high discriminatory ability was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Rising serum nardilysin concentrations following malignant cerebral infarction are strongly related to stroke severity, inflammatory extent and a higher risk of mortality, substantializing serum nardilysin as a potential prognostic biomarker for malignant cerebral infarction.

New prognostic biomarkers of mortality in patients undergoing liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

The outcome prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) was classically established using various macromorphological factors and serum alpha-fetoprotein levels prior to LT. However, other biomarkers have recently been reported to be associated with the prognosis of HCC patients undergoing to LT. This review summarizes clinical data on these new biomarkers. High blood levels of malondialdehyde, total antioxidant capacity, caspase-cleaved cytokeratin-18, soluble CD40 ligand, substance P, C-reactive protein, and vascular endothelial growth factor, increased neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio in blood, high peripheral blood expression of human telomerase reverse transcriptase messenger ribonucleic acid, and high HCC expression of dickkopf-1 have recently been associated with decreased survival rates. In addition, high blood levels of des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, and high HCC expression of glypican-3, E-cadherin and beta-catenin have been associated with increased HCC recurrence. Additional research is necessary to establish the prognostic role of these biomarkers in HCC prior to LT. Furthermore, some of these biomarkers are also interesting because their potential modulation could help to create new research lines for improving the outcomes of those patients.

High serum levels of caspase-cleaved cytokeratin-18 are associated with malignant middle cerebral artery infarction patient mortality

BACKGROUND

There have been found apoptotic changes in brain tissue samples from humans after cerebral ischemia. Caspase-cleaved cytokeratin (CCCK)-18 could appears in blood during apoptosis. High circulating levels of CCCK-18 have been associated with a poor prognosis in patients with cerebral process, such as traumatic brain injury and spontaneous cerebral hemorrhage. However, they have not been explored in patients with ischemic stroke. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine whether there is an association between serum CCCK-18 levels and mortality in patients with severe malignant middle cerebral artery infarction (MMCAI).

METHODS

This was an observational, prospective and multicentre study. We included patients with severe MMCAI. We considered MMCAI as severe when Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was lower than 9. We measured serum CCCK-18 levels at the diagnosis moment of the severe MMCAI.

RESULTS

We found that non-surviving severe MMCAI patients (n = 33) showed lower GCS and platelet count, and higher serum CCCK-18 levels than survivor ones (n = 33). We found an area under the curve (AUC) of serum CCCK-18 levels to predict 30-day mortality of 82% (95% CI = 71%-91%; p < 0.001). In the multiple logistic regression analysis was found that serum CCCK-18 levels were associated with 30-day mortality (OR = 1.023; 95% CI = 1.010-1.037; p = 0.001) after to control for platelet count and GCS.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first series reporting data on serum CCCK-18 levels in ischemic stroke patients. The novel findings of our study were that non-surviving severe MMCAI patients had higher serum CCCK-18 levels than surviving patients, and that there is an association between high serum CCCK-18 levels and MMCAI patients mortality.

High serum soluble CD40L levels previously to liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma are associated with mortality at one year

PURPOSE

CD40L and its soluble form (sCD40L) are proteins of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily (TNFSF) that exhibit prothrombotic and proinflammatory properties when binding to CD40, which is a cell surface receptor of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily (TNFRSF). High circulating levels of sCD40L have been associated with poor prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, it is unknown whether there is an association between circulating sCD40L levels and survival in patients with HCC underwent to liver transplantation (LT), and this was the objective of that study.

METHODS

Serum sCD40L levels were measured in a total of 139 patients before LT (124 survivors at 1year of LT and 15 non-survivors). The end-point study was 1year survival after liver LT.

RESULTS

We found that 1-year non-surviving patients showed higher serum sCD40L levels than survivor patients (p=0.02). We found in logistic regression analysis that serum sCD40L levels higher than 321pg/mL (Odds Ratio=6.86; 95% confidence interval=2.06-22.76; p=0.002) and age of LT deceased donor were associated with death at 1year.

CONCLUSIONS

The new finding of our study was that high serum sCD40L levels previously to LT in patients with HCC are associated with higher mortality at one year.

Non-survivor septic patients have persistently higher serum sCD40L levels than survivors

INTRODUCTION

Soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L) is a protein with proinflammatory and prothrombotic effects. Previously we found higher circulating sCD40L levels in non-survivor than in survivor patients at sepsis diagnosis. Now some questions arise such as how are serum sCD40L levels during the first week of severe sepsis?, is there an association between serum sCD40L levels during the first week and mortality?, and serum sCD40L levels during the first week could be used as sepsis mortality biomarker?. This study was developed to answer these asks.

METHODS

Study from 6 Spanish Intensive Care Units with 291 severe septic patients. There were determined serum levels of sCD40L and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha during the first week. The end-point study was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

We found that serum sCD40L at days 1, 4, and 8 could predict mortality at 30days, and are associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel findings of our study were that there were higher serum sCD40L levels persistently during the first week in non-survivor than in survivor patients, that there is an association between serum sCD40L levels during the first week and sepsis mortality, and that serum sCD40L levels during the first week could be used as sepsis mortality biomarker.

Serum Levels of Substance P and Mortality in Patients with a Severe Acute Ischemic Stroke

Substance P (SP), a member of tachykinin family, is involved in the inflammation of the central nervous system and in the appearance of cerebral edema. Higher serum levels of SP have been found in 18 patients with cerebral ischemia compared with healthy controls. The aim of our multi-center study was to analyze the possible association between serum levels of SP and mortality in ischemic stroke patients. We included patients with malignant middle cerebral artery infarction (MMCAI) and a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) lower than 9. Non-surviving patients at 30 days (n = 31) had higher serum concentrations of SP levels at diagnosis of severe MMCAI than survivors (n = 30) (p < 0.001). We found in multiple regression an association between serum concentrations of SP higher than 362 pg/mL and mortality at 30 days (Odds Ratio = 5.33; 95% confidence interval = 1.541-18.470; p = 0.008) after controlling for age and GCS. Thus, the major novel finding of our study was the association between serum levels of SP and mortality in patients suffering from severe acute ischemic stroke.

Serum Levels of Substance P and Mortality in Patients with a Severe Acute Ischemic Stroke

Substance P (SP), a member of tachykinin family, is involved in the inflammation of the central nervous system and in the appearance of cerebral edema. Higher serum levels of SP have been found in 18 patients with cerebral ischemia compared with healthy controls. The aim of our multi-center study was to analyze the possible association between serum levels of SP and mortality in ischemic stroke patients. We included patients with malignant middle cerebral artery infarction (MMCAI) and a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) lower than 9. Non-surviving patients at 30 days (n = 31) had higher serum concentrations of SP levels at diagnosis of severe MMCAI than survivors (n = 30) (p < 0.001). We found in multiple regression an association between serum concentrations of SP higher than 362 pg/mL and mortality at 30 days (Odds Ratio = 5.33; 95% confidence interval = 1.541-18.470; p = 0.008) after controlling for age and GCS. Thus, the major novel finding of our study was the association between serum levels of SP and mortality in patients suffering from severe acute ischemic stroke.