Evaluating the Effect of Topical Atropine Use for Myopia Control on Intraocular Pressure by Using Machine Learning

Bibliometric analysis of hotspots and trends of global myopia research

AIM

To gain insights into the global research hotspots and trends of myopia.

METHODS

Articles were downloaded from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2022 from the Science Core Database website and were mainly statistically analyzed by bibliometrics software.

RESULTS

A total of 444 institutions in 87 countries published 4124 articles. Between 2013 and 2022, China had the highest number of publications (n=1865) and the highest H-index (61). Sun Yat-sen University had the highest number of publications (n=229) and the highest H-index (33). Ophthalmology is the main category in related journals. Citations from 2020 to 2022 highlight keywords of options and reference, child health (pediatrics), myopic traction mechanism, public health, and machine learning, which represent research frontiers.

CONCLUSION

Myopia has become a hot research field. China and Chinese institutions have the strongest academic influence in the field from 2013 to 2022. The main driver of myopic research is still medical or ophthalmologists. This study highlights the importance of public health in addressing the global rise in myopia, especially its impact on children's health. At present, a unified theoretical system is still needed. Accurate surgical and therapeutic solutions must be proposed for people with different characteristics to manage and intervene refractive errors. In addition, the benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) models are also reflected in disease monitoring and prediction.

Impact of atropine use for myopia control on intraocular pressure in children: A comprehensive review including postpupil dilation intraocular pressure changes

Topical atropine has been widely used for controlling myopia progression in children, yet its long-term efficacy and safety, including potential intraocular pressure (IOP) elevation, are still being studied. The mydriasis and cyclopegia induced by atropine may reduce traction on the trabecular meshwork, together with pigment released into anterior chamber due to the friction between the iris and lens during pupil dilation, may obstruct and reduce the trabecular outflow. This review first explores postdilation IOP changes across different groups - healthy individuals, glaucoma patients, and children. The response to pupil dilation varies widely, with IOP potentially increasing or decreasing. Glaucoma patients, whether with open or closed-angle glaucoma, may experience more significant IOP rises postdilation. The second section examines IOP effects in children using topical atropine for myopia, where most of the 25 reviewed studies showed nonsignificant IOP changes, although slight increases were observed in a few. In addition, no alterations in the retinal nerve fiber layer thickness were found. However, the research on children's IOP under topical atropine is constrained by small sample sizes, cross-sectional studies, brief follow-ups, and often lacks control groups or pretreatment IOP measurements. Given the extended atropine use for myopia and the significant individual variation in IOP response, we recommend routine IOP monitoring for children receiving topical atropine.

Identifying and Exploring the Impact Factors for Intraocular Pressure Prediction in Myopic Children with Atropine Control Utilizing Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

PURPOSE

The treatment of childhood myopia often involves the use of topical atropine, which has been demonstrated to be effective in decelerating the progression of myopia. It is crucial to monitor intraocular pressure (IOP) to ensure the safety of topical atropine. This study aims to identify the optimal machine learning IOP-monitoring module and establish a precise baseline IOP as a clinical safety reference for atropine medication.

METHODS

Data from 1545 eyes of 1171 children receiving atropine for myopia were retrospectively analyzed. Nineteen variables including patient demographics, medical history, refractive error, and IOP measurements were considered. The data were analyzed using a multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) model to analyze the impact of different factors on the End IOP.

RESULTS

The MARS model identified age, baseline IOP, End Spherical, duration of previous atropine treatment, and duration of current atropine treatment as the five most significant factors influencing the End IOP. The outcomes revealed that the baseline IOP had the most significant effect on final IOP, exhibiting a notable knot at 14 mmHg. When the baseline IOP was equal to or exceeded 14 mmHg, there was a positive correlation between atropine use and End IOP, suggesting that atropine may increase the End IOP in children with a baseline IOP greater than 14 mmHg.

CONCLUSIONS

MARS model demonstrates a better ability to capture nonlinearity than classic multiple linear regression for predicting End IOP. It is crucial to acknowledge that administrating atropine may elevate intraocular pressure when the baseline IOP exceeds 14 mmHg. These findings offer valuable insights into factors affecting IOP in children undergoing atropine treatment for myopia, enabling clinicians to make informed decisions regarding treatment options.

Assessing the length of hospital stay for patients with myasthenia gravis based on the data mining MARS approach

Predicting the length of hospital stay for myasthenia gravis (MG) patients is challenging due to the complex pathogenesis, high clinical variability, and non-linear relationships between variables. Considering the management of MG during hospitalization, it is important to conduct a risk assessment to predict the length of hospital stay. The present study aimed to successfully predict the length of hospital stay for MG based on an expandable data mining technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). Data from 196 MG patients' hospitalization were analyzed, and the MARS model was compared with classical multiple linear regression (MLR) and three other machine learning (ML) algorithms. The average hospital stay duration was 12.3 days. The MARS model, leveraging its ability to capture non-linearity, identified four significant factors: disease duration, age at admission, MGFA clinical classification, and daily prednisolone dose. Cut-off points and correlation curves were determined for these risk factors. The MARS model outperformed the MLR and the other ML methods (including least absolute shrinkage and selection operator MLR, classification and regression tree, and random forest) in assessing hospital stay length. This is the first study to utilize data mining methods to explore factors influencing hospital stay in patients with MG. The results highlight the effectiveness of the MARS model in identifying the cut-off points and correlation for risk factors associated with MG hospitalization. Furthermore, a MARS-based formula was developed as a practical tool to assist in the measurement of hospital stay, which can be feasibly supported as an extension of clinical risk assessment.

Using Machine Learning to Identify the Relationships between Demographic, Biochemical, and Lifestyle Parameters and Plasma Vitamin D Concentration in Healthy Premenopausal Chinese Women

INTRODUCTION

Vitamin D plays a vital role in maintaining homeostasis and enhancing the absorption of calcium, an essential component for strengthening bones and preventing osteoporosis. There are many factors known to relate to plasma vitamin D concentration (PVDC). However, most of these studies were performed with traditional statistical methods. Nowadays, machine learning methods (Mach-L) have become new tools in medical research. In the present study, we used four Mach-L methods to explore the relationships between PVDC and demographic, biochemical, and lifestyle factors in a group of healthy premenopausal Chinese women. Our goals were as follows: (1) to evaluate and compare the predictive accuracy of Mach-L and MLR, and (2) to establish a hierarchy of the significance of the aforementioned factors related to PVDC.

METHODS

Five hundred ninety-three healthy Chinese women were enrolled. In total, there were 35 variables recorded, including demographic, biochemical, and lifestyle information. The dependent variable was 25-OH vitamin D (PVDC), and all other variables were the independent variables. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was regarded as the benchmark for comparison. Four Mach-L methods were applied (random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and elastic net). Each method would produce several estimation errors. The smaller these errors were, the better the model was.

RESULTS

Pearson's correlation, age, glycated hemoglobin, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and hemoglobin were positively correlated to PVDC, whereas eGFR was negatively correlated to PVDC. The Mach-L methods yielded smaller estimation errors for all five parameters, which indicated that they were better methods than the MLR model. After averaging the importance percentage from the four Mach-L methods, a rank of importance could be obtained. Age was the most important factor, followed by plasma insulin level, TSH, spouse status, LDH, and ALP.

CONCLUSIONS

In a healthy Chinese premenopausal cohort using four different Mach-L methods, age was found to be the most important factor related to PVDC, followed by plasma insulin level, TSH, spouse status, LDH, and ALP.

Comparison between multiple logistic regression and machine learning methods in prediction of abnormal thallium scans in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been increasing dramatically in recent decades, and 47.5% of T2D patients will die of cardiovascular disease. Thallium-201 myocardial perfusion scan (MPS) is a precise and non-invasive method to detect coronary artery disease (CAD). Most previous studies used traditional logistic regression (LGR) to evaluate the risks for abnormal CAD. Rapidly developing machine learning (Mach-L) techniques could potentially outperform LGR in capturing non-linear relationships.

AIM

To aims were: (1) Compare the accuracy of Mach-L methods and LGR; and (2) Found the most important factors for abnormal TMPS.

METHODS

556 T2D were enrolled in the study (287 men and 269 women). Demographic and biochemistry data were used as independent variables and the sum of stressed score derived from MPS scan was the dependent variable. Subjects with a MPS score ≥ 9 were defined as abnormal. In addition to traditional LGR, classification and regression tree (CART), random forest, Naïve Bayes, and eXtreme gradient boosting were also applied. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the receiver operation curve were used to evaluate the respective accuracy of LGR and Mach-L methods.

RESULTS

Except for CART, the other Mach-L methods outperformed LGR, with gender, body mass index, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin and smoking emerging as the most important factors to predict abnormal MPS.

CONCLUSION

Four Mach-L methods are found to outperform LGR in predicting abnormal TMPS in Chinese T2D, with the most important risk factors being gender, body mass index, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycated hemoglobin and smoking.

Using a Decision Tree Algorithm Predictive Model for Sperm Count Assessment and Risk Factors in Health Screening Population

Purpose

Approximately 20% of couples face infertility challenges and struggle to conceive naturally. Despite advances in artificial reproduction, its success hinges on sperm quality. Our previous study used five machine learning (ML) algorithms, random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, ridge regression, and extreme gradient boosting, to model health data from 1375 Taiwanese males and identified ten risk factors affecting sperm count.

Methods

We employed the CART algorithm to generate decision trees using identified risk factors to predict healthy sperm counts. Four error metrics, SMAPE, RAE, RRSE, and RMSE, were used to evaluate the decision trees. We identified the top five decision trees based on their low errors and discussed in detail the tree with the least error.

Results

The decision tree featuring the least error, comprising BMI, UA, ST, T-Cho/HDL-C ratio, and BUN, corroborated the negative impacts of metabolic syndrome, particularly high BMI, on sperm count, while emphasizing the link between good sleep and male fertility. Our study also sheds light on the potentially significant influence of high BUN on spermatogenesis. Two novel risk factors, T-Cho/HDL-C and UA, warrant further investigation.

Conclusion

The ML algorithm established a predictive model for healthcare personnel to assess low sperm counts. Refinement of the model using additional data is crucial for improved precision. The risk factors identified offer avenues for future investigations.

Comparison between linear regression and four different machine learning methods in selecting risk factors for osteoporosis in a Chinese female aged cohort

BACKGROUND

Population aging is emerging as an increasingly acute challenge for countries around the world. One particular manifestation of this phenomenon is the impact of osteoporosis on individuals and national health systems. Previous studies of risk factors for osteoporosis were conducted using traditional statistical methods, but more recent efforts have turned to machine learning approaches. Most such efforts, however, treat the target variable (bone mineral density [BMD] or fracture rate) as a categorical one, which provides no quantitative information. The present study uses five different machine learning methods to analyze the risk factors for T-score of BMD, seeking to (1) compare the prediction accuracy between different machine learning methods and traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) and (2) rank the importance of 25 different risk factors.

METHODS

The study sample includes 24 412 women older than 55 years with 25 related variables, applying traditional MLR and five different machine learning methods: classification and regression tree, Naïve Bayes, random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, and eXtreme gradient boosting. The metrics used for model performance comparisons are the symmetric mean absolute percentage error, relative absolute error, root relative squared error, and root mean squared error.

RESULTS

Machine learning approaches outperformed MLR for all four prediction errors. The average importance ranking of each factor generated by the machine learning methods indicates that age is the most important factor determining T-score, followed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), body mass index (BMI), uric acid (UA), and education level.

CONCLUSION

In a group of women older than 55 years, we demonstrated that machine learning methods provide superior performance in estimating T-Score, with age being the most important impact factor, followed by eGFR, BMI, UA, and education level.

Roles of biochemistry data, lifestyle, and inflammation in identifying abnormal renal function in old Chinese

BACKGROUND

The incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has dramatically increased in recent years, with significant impacts on patient mortality rates. Previous studies have identified multiple risk factors for CKD, but they mostly relied on the use of traditional statistical methods such as logistic regression and only focused on a few risk factors.

AIM

To determine factors that can be used to identify subjects with a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (L-eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) in a cohort of 1236 Chinese people aged over 65.

METHODS

Twenty risk factors were divided into three models. Model 1 consisted of demographic and biochemistry data. Model 2 added lifestyle data to Model 1, and Model 3 added inflammatory markers to Model 2. Five machine learning methods were used: Multivariate adaptive regression splines, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, stochastic gradient boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Categorical Features + Gradient Boosting. Evaluation criteria included accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), F-1 score, and balanced accuracy.

RESULTS

A trend of increasing AUC of each was observed from Model 1 to Model 3 and reached statistical significance. Model 3 selected uric acid as the most important risk factor, followed by age, hemoglobin (Hb), body mass index (BMI), sport hours, and systolic blood pressure (SBP).

CONCLUSION

Among all the risk factors including demographic, biochemistry, and lifestyle risk factors, along with inflammation markers, UA is the most important risk factor to identify L-eGFR, followed by age, Hb, BMI, sport hours, and SBP in a cohort of elderly Chinese people.

An integrated machine learning predictive scheme for longitudinal laboratory data to evaluate the factors determining renal function changes in patients with different chronic kidney disease stages

Background and objectives

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health concern. This study aims to identify key factors associated with renal function changes using the proposed machine learning and important variable selection (ML&IVS) scheme on longitudinal laboratory data. The goal is to predict changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in a cohort of patients with CKD stages 3-5.

Design

A retrospective cohort study.

Setting and participants

A total of 710 outpatients who presented with stable nondialysis-dependent CKD stages 3-5 at the Shin-Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital Medical Center from 2016 to 2021.

Methods

This study analyzed trimonthly laboratory data including 47 indicators. The proposed scheme used stochastic gradient boosting, multivariate adaptive regression splines, random forest, eXtreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine algorithms to evaluate the important factors for predicting the results of the fourth eGFR examination, especially in patients with CKD stage 3 and those with CKD stages 4-5, with or without diabetes mellitus (DM).

Main outcome measurement

Subsequent eGFR level after three consecutive laboratory data assessments.

Results

Our ML&IVS scheme demonstrated superior predictive capabilities and identified significant factors contributing to renal function changes in various CKD groups. The latest levels of eGFR, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), proteinuria, sodium, and systolic blood pressure as well as mean levels of eGFR, BUN, proteinuria, and triglyceride were the top 10 significantly important factors for predicting the subsequent eGFR level in patients with CKD stages 3-5. In individuals with DM, the latest levels of BUN and proteinuria, mean levels of phosphate and proteinuria, and variations in diastolic blood pressure levels emerged as important factors for predicting the decline of renal function. In individuals without DM, all phosphate patterns and latest albumin levels were found to be key factors in the advanced CKD group. Moreover, proteinuria was identified as an important factor in the CKD stage 3 group without DM and CKD stages 4-5 group with DM.

Conclusion

The proposed scheme highlighted factors associated with renal function changes in different CKD conditions, offering valuable insights to physicians for raising awareness about renal function changes.

Pediatrics in Artificial Intelligence Era: A Systematic Review on Challenges, Opportunities, and Explainability

BACKGROUND

The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) tools such as ChatGPT and Bard is disrupting a broad swathe of fields, including medicine. In pediatric medicine, AI is also increasingly being used across multiple subspecialties. However, the practical application of AI still faces a number of key challenges. Consequently, there is a requirement for a concise overview of the roles of AI across the multiple domains of pediatric medicine, which the current study seeks to address.

AIM

To systematically assess the challenges, opportunities, and explainability of AI in pediatric medicine.

METHODOLOGY

A systematic search was carried out on peer-reviewed databases, PubMed Central, Europe PubMed Central, and grey literature using search terms related to machine learning (ML) and AI for the years 2016 to 2022 in the English language. A total of 210 articles were retrieved that were screened with PRISMA for abstract, year, language, context, and proximal relevance to research aims. A thematic analysis was carried out to extract findings from the included studies.

RESULTS

Twenty articles were selected for data abstraction and analysis, with three consistent themes emerging from these articles. In particular, eleven articles address the current state-of-the-art application of AI in diagnosing and predicting health conditions such as behavioral and mental health, cancer, syndromic and metabolic diseases. Five articles highlight the specific challenges of AI deployment in pediatric medicines: data security, handling, authentication, and validation. Four articles set out future opportunities for AI to be adapted: the incorporation of Big Data, cloud computing, precision medicine, and clinical decision support systems. These studies collectively critically evaluate the potential of AI in overcoming current barriers to adoption.

CONCLUSION

AI is proving disruptive within pediatric medicine and is presently associated with challenges, opportunities, and the need for explainability. AI should be viewed as a tool to enhance and support clinical decision-making rather than a substitute for human judgement and expertise. Future research should consequently focus on obtaining comprehensive data to ensure the generalizability of research findings.

Artificial intelligence and digital solutions for myopia

Myopia as an uncorrected visual impairment is recognized as a global public health issue with an increasing burden on health-care systems. Moreover, high myopia increases one's risk of developing pathologic myopia, which can lead to irreversible visual impairment. Thus, increased resources are needed for the early identification of complications, timely intervention to prevent myopia progression, and treatment of complications. Emerging artificial intelligence (AI) and digital technologies may have the potential to tackle these unmet needs through automated detection for screening and risk stratification, individualized prediction, and prognostication of myopia progression. AI applications in myopia for children and adults have been developed for the detection, diagnosis, and prediction of progression. Novel AI technologies, including multimodal AI, explainable AI, federated learning, automated machine learning, and blockchain, may further improve prediction performance, safety, accessibility, and also circumvent concerns of explainability. Digital technology advancements include digital therapeutics, self-monitoring devices, virtual reality or augmented reality technology, and wearable devices - which provide possible avenues for monitoring myopia progression and control. However, there are challenges in the implementation of these technologies, which include requirements for specific infrastructure and resources, demonstrating clinically acceptable performance and safety of data management. Nonetheless, this remains an evolving field with the potential to address the growing global burden of myopia.

Symptoms and ocular findings associated with administration of 0.01% atropine in young adults

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

This paper provides eye care practitioners with important information about the potential side effects of 0.01% atropine.

BACKGROUND

Eye care practitioners routinely administer 0.01% atropine eye drops nightly to slow the progression of myopia, but nobody has assessed accommodative lag or facility, near phoria, intraocular pressure or comfort of drop administration.

METHODS

All 21- to 30-year-old adults with no history of accommodative issues or therapy were eligible. During the baseline visit, participants underwent testing related to potential side effects. Participants then administered one drop of 0.01% atropine nightly to both eyes, and all tests were repeated 1 week later.

RESULTS

The average ± standard deviation age of the 31 participants was 23.9 ± 1.6 years, 71% were female, and 81% were Caucasian. The only significant changes were an increase in photopic pupil size from 4.9 ± 0.8 at baseline to 5.1 ± 0.6 mm after 1 week (paired sample t-test, p = 0.002) and an increase of the average intraocular pressure of the two eyes from 15.6 ± 2.7 to 16.7 ± 3.1 mmHg (paired-sample t-test, p = 0.003), but neither of these changes was clinically meaningful. There were no other statistically significant differences before and after 1-week administration of 0.01% atropine for any of the vision, accommodation, reading speed or subjective side effects. When asked how likely they would be to take the atropine drops to delay the onset of myopia on a scale from 1 (definitely not) to 10 (definitely would), participants replied with an average of 8.2 ± 2.0 after taking atropine eye drops for 1 week (paired-sample t-test, p = 0.81).

CONCLUSION

Nightly administration of 0.01% atropine did not result in any clinically meaningful symptoms, so patients would be very likely to take the drops to delay the onset of myopia.

Machine Learning Predictive Models for Evaluating Risk Factors Affecting Sperm Count: Predictions Based on Health Screening Indicators

In many countries, especially developed nations, the fertility rate and birth rate have continually declined. Taiwan's fertility rate has paralleled this trend and reached its nadir in 2022. Therefore, the government uses many strategies to encourage more married couples to have children. However, couples marrying at an older age may have declining physical status, as well as hypertension and other metabolic syndrome symptoms, in addition to possibly being overweight, which have been the focus of the studies for their influences on male and female gamete quality. Many previous studies based on infertile people are not truly representative of the general population. This study proposed a framework using five machine learning (ML) predictive algorithms-random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, ridge regression, and extreme gradient boosting-to identify the major risk factors affecting male sperm count based on a major health screening database in Taiwan. Unlike traditional multiple linear regression, ML algorithms do not need statistical assumptions and can capture non-linear relationships or complex interactions between dependent and independent variables to generate promising performance. We analyzed annual health screening data of 1375 males from 2010 to 2017, including data on health screening indicators, sourced from the MJ Group, a major health screening center in Taiwan. The symmetric mean absolute percentage error, relative absolute error, root relative squared error, and root mean squared error were used as performance evaluation metrics. Our results show that sleep time (ST), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), body fat (BF), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) are the top five risk factors associated with sperm count. ST is a known risk factor influencing reproductive hormone balance, which can affect spermatogenesis and final sperm count. BF and SBP are risk factors associated with metabolic syndrome, another known risk factor of altered male reproductive hormone systems. However, AFP has not been the focus of previous studies on male fertility or semen quality. BUN, the index for kidney function, is also identified as a risk factor by our established ML model. Our results support previous findings that metabolic syndrome has negative impacts on sperm count and semen quality. Sleep duration also has an impact on sperm generation in the testes. AFP and BUN are two novel risk factors linked to sperm counts. These findings could help healthcare personnel and law makers create strategies for creating environments to increase the country's fertility rate. This study should also be of value to follow-up research.

Integrated Machine Learning Decision Tree Model for Risk Evaluation in Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation When Taking Different Doses of Dabigatran

The new generation of nonvitamin K antagonists are broadly applied for stroke prevention due to their notable efficacy and safety. Our study aimed to develop a suggestive utilization of dabigatran through an integrated machine learning (ML) decision-tree model. Participants taking different doses of dabigatran in the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy trial were included in our analysis and defined as the 110 mg and 150 mg groups. The proposed scheme integrated ML methods, namely naive Bayes, random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), which were used to identify the essential variables for predicting vascular events in the 110 mg group and bleeding in the 150 mg group. RF (0.764 for 110 mg; 0.747 for 150 mg) and XGBoost (0.708 for 110 mg; 0.761 for 150 mg) had better area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values than logistic regression (benchmark model; 0.683 for 110 mg; 0.739 for 150 mg). We then selected the top ten important variables as internal nodes of the CART decision tree. The two best CART models with ten important variables output tree-shaped rules for predicting vascular events in the 110 mg group and bleeding in the 150 mg group. Our model can be used to provide more visualized and interpretable suggestive rules to clinicians managing NVAF patients who are taking dabigatran.

Artificial intelligence technology for myopia challenges: A review

Myopia is a significant global health concern and affects human visual function, resulting in blurred vision at a distance. There are still many unsolved challenges in this field that require the help of new technologies. Currently, artificial intelligence (AI) technology is dominating medical image and data analysis and has been introduced to address challenges in the clinical practice of many ocular diseases. AI research in myopia is still in its early stages. Understanding the strengths and limitations of each AI method in specific tasks of myopia could be of great value and might help us to choose appropriate approaches for different tasks. This article reviews and elaborates on the technical details of AI methods applied for myopia risk prediction, screening and diagnosis, pathogenesis, and treatment.

An Integrated Machine Learning Scheme for Predicting Mammographic Anomalies in High-Risk Individuals Using Questionnaire-Based Predictors

This study aimed to investigate the important predictors related to predicting positive mammographic findings based on questionnaire-based demographic and obstetric/gynecological parameters using the proposed integrated machine learning (ML) scheme. The scheme combines the benefits of two well-known ML algorithms, namely, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGB), to provide adequate prediction for mammographic anomalies in high-risk individuals and the identification of significant risk factors. We collected questionnaire data on 18 breast-cancer-related risk factors from women who participated in a national mammographic screening program between January 2017 and December 2020 at a single tertiary referral hospital to correlate with their mammographic findings. The acquired data were retrospectively analyzed using the proposed integrated ML scheme. Based on the data from 21,107 valid questionnaires, the results showed that the Lasso logistic regression models with variable combinations generated by XGB could provide more effective prediction results. The top five significant predictors for positive mammography results were younger age, breast self-examination, older age at first childbirth, nulliparity, and history of mammography within 2 years, suggesting a need for timely mammographic screening for women with these risk factors.

No sex differences in the incidence, risk factors and clinical impact of acute kidney injury in critically ill patients with sepsis

Background

Sex-stratified medicine is an important aspect of precision medicine. We aimed to compare the incidence and risk factors of acute kidney injury (AKI) for critically ill men and women with sepsis. Furthermore, the short-term mortality was compared between men and women with sepsis associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI).

Method

This was a retrospective study based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. We used the multivariable logistic regression analysis to evaluate the independent effect of sex on the incidence of SA-AKI. We further applied three machine learning methods (decision tree, random forest and extreme gradient boosting) to screen for the risk factors associated with SA-AKI in the total, men and women groups. We finally compared the intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital mortality between men and women with SA-AKI using propensity score matching.

Results

A total of 6463 patients were included in our study, including 3673 men and 2790 women. The incidence of SA-AKI was 83.8% for men and 82.1% for women. After adjustment for confounders, no significant association was observed between sex and the incidence of SA-AKI (odds ratio (OR), 1.137; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.949-1.361; p=0.163). The machine learning results revealed that body mass index, Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score, diuretic, Acute Physiology Score III and age were the most important risk factors of SA-AKI, irrespective of sex. After propensity score matching, men had similar ICU and hospital mortality to women.

Conclusions

The incidence and associated risk factors of SA-AKI are similar between men and women, and men and women with SA-AKI experience comparable rates of ICU and hospital mortality. Therefore, sex-related effects may play a minor role in developing SA-AKI. Our study helps to contribute to the knowledge gap between sex and SA-AKI.

Comparison between Machine Learning and Multiple Linear Regression to Identify Abnormal Thallium Myocardial Perfusion Scan in Chinese Type 2 Diabetes

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients have a high risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Thallium-201 myocardial perfusion scan (Th-201 scan) is a non-invasive and extensively used tool in recognizing CAD in clinical settings. In this study, we attempted to compare the predictive accuracy of evaluating abnormal Th-201 scans using traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) with four machine learning (ML) methods. From the study, we can determine whether ML surpasses traditional MLR and rank the clinical variables and compare them with previous reports.In total, 796 T2DM, including 368 men and 528 women, were enrolled. In addition to traditional MLR, classification and regression tree (CART), random forest (RF), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were also used to analyze abnormal Th-201 scans. Stress sum score was used as the endpoint (dependent variable). Our findings show that all four root mean square errors of ML are smaller than with MLR, which implies that ML is more precise than MLR in determining abnormal Th-201 scans by using clinical parameters. The first seven factors, from the most important to the least are:body mass index, hemoglobin, age, glycated hemoglobin, Creatinine, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. In conclusion, ML is not inferior to traditional MLR in predicting abnormal Th-201 scans, and the most important factors are body mass index, hemoglobin, age, glycated hemoglobin, creatinine, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. ML methods are superior in these kinds of studies.

Comparing Multiple Linear Regression and Machine Learning in Predicting Diabetic Urine Albumin–Creatinine Ratio in a 4-Year Follow-Up Study

The urine albumin–creatinine ratio (uACR) is a warning for the deterioration of renal function in type 2 diabetes (T2D). The early detection of ACR has become an important issue. Multiple linear regression (MLR) has traditionally been used to explore the relationships between risk factors and endpoints. Recently, machine learning (ML) methods have been widely applied in medicine. In the present study, four ML methods were used to predict the uACR in a T2D cohort. We hypothesized that (1) ML outperforms traditional MLR and (2) different ranks of the importance of the risk factors will be obtained. A total of 1147 patients with T2D were followed up for four years. MLR, classification and regression tree, random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, and eXtreme gradient boosting methods were used. Our findings show that the prediction errors of the ML methods are smaller than those of MLR, which indicates that ML is more accurate. The first six most important factors were baseline creatinine level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting plasma glucose. In conclusion, ML might be more accurate in predicting uACR in a T2D cohort than the traditional MLR, and the baseline creatinine level is the most important predictor, which is followed by systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting plasma glucose in Chinese patients with T2D.

Usefulness of Machine Learning for Identification of Referable Diabetic Retinopathy in a Large-Scale Population-Based Study

Purpose: To development and validation of machine learning-based classifiers based on simple non-ocular metrics for detecting referable diabetic retinopathy (RDR) in a large-scale Chinese population–based survey.

Methods: The 1,418 patients with diabetes mellitus from 8,952 rural residents screened in the population-based Dongguan Eye Study were used for model development and validation. Eight algorithms [extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest, naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbor (KNN), AdaBoost, Light GBM, artificial neural network (ANN), and logistic regression] were used for modeling to detect RDR in individuals with diabetes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and their 95% confidential interval (95% CI) were estimated using five-fold cross-validation as well as an 80:20 ratio of training and validation.

Results: The 10 most important features in machine learning models were duration of diabetes, HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, body mass index, serum creatine, age, educational level, duration of hypertension, and income level. Based on these top 10 variables, the XGBoost model achieved the best discriminative performance, with an AUC of 0.816 (95%CI: 0.812, 0.820). The AUCs for logistic regression, AdaBoost, naïve Bayes, and Random forest were 0.766 (95%CI: 0.756, 0.776), 0.754 (95%CI: 0.744, 0.764), 0.753 (95%CI: 0.743, 0.763), and 0.705 (95%CI: 0.697, 0.713), respectively.

Conclusions: A machine learning–based classifier that used 10 easily obtained non-ocular variables was able to effectively detect RDR patients. The importance scores of the variables provide insight to prevent the occurrence of RDR. Screening RDR with machine learning provides a useful complementary tool for clinical practice in resource-poor areas with limited ophthalmic infrastructure.

Health Data-Driven Machine Learning Algorithms Applied to Risk Indicators Assessment for Chronic Kidney Disease

PURPOSE

As global aging progresses, the health management of chronic diseases has become an important issue of concern to governments. Influenced by the aging of its population and improvements in the medical system and healthcare in general, Taiwan's population of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has tended to grow year by year, including the incidence of high-risk cases that pose major health hazards to the elderly and middle-aged populations.

METHODS

This study analyzed the annual health screening data for 65,394 people from 2010 to 2015 sourced from the MJ Group - a major health screening center in Taiwan - including data for 18 risk indicators. We used five prediction model analysis methods, namely, logistic regression (LR) analysis, C5.0 decision tree (C5.0) analysis, stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) analysis, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGboost), with estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) data to determine G3a, G3b & G4 stage CKD risk factors.

RESULTS

The LR analysis (AUC=0.848), SGB analysis (AUC=0.855), and XGboost (AUC=0.858) generated similar classification performance levels and all outperformed the C5.0 and MARS methods. The study results showed that in terms of CKD risk factors, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) and uric acid (UA) were identified as the first and second most important indicators in the models of all five analysis methods, and they were also clinically recognized as the major risk factors. The results for systolic blood pressure (SBP), SGPT, SGOT, and LDL were similar to those of a related study. Interestingly, however, socioeconomic status-related education was found to be the third important indicator in all three of the better performing analysis methods, indicating that it is more important than the other risk indicators of this study, which had different levels of importance according to the different methods.

CONCLUSION

The five prediction model methods can provide high and similar classification performance in this study. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that education as the socioeconomic status should be an important factor for CKD, as high educational level showed a negative and highly significant correlation with CKD. The findings of this study should also be of value for further discussions and follow-up research.

Comparison of Different Machine Learning Classifiers for Glaucoma Diagnosis Based on Spectralis OCT

Early detection is important in glaucoma management. By using optical coherence tomography (OCT), the subtle structural changes caused by glaucoma can be detected. Though OCT provided abundant parameters for comprehensive information, clinicians may be confused once the results conflict. Machine learning classifiers (MLCs) are good tools for considering numerous parameters and generating reliable diagnoses in glaucoma practice. Here we aim to compare different MLCs based on Spectralis OCT parameters, including circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (cRNFL) thickness, Bruch’s membrane opening-minimum rim width (BMO-MRW), Early Treatment Diabetes Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) macular thickness, and posterior pole asymmetry analysis (PPAA), in discriminating normal from glaucomatous eyes. Five MLCs were proposed, namely conditional inference trees (CIT), logistic model tree (LMT), C5.0 decision tree, random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Logistic regression (LGR) was used as a benchmark for comparison. RF was shown to be the best model. Ganglion cell layer measurements were the most important predictors in early glaucoma detection and cRNFL measurements were more important as the glaucoma severity increased. The global, temporal, inferior, superotemporal, and inferotemporal sites were relatively influential locations among all parameters. Clinicians should cautiously integrate the Spectralis OCT results into the entire clinical picture when diagnosing glaucoma.

XGBoost Algorithm Prediction of Critical Care Outcome for Adult Patients Presenting to Emergency Department Using Initial Triage Information

Background

The emergency department (ED) triage system to classify and prioritize patients from high risk to less urgent continues to be a challenge.

Objective

This study, comprising 80,433 patients, aims to develop a machine learning algorithm prediction model of critical care outcomes for adult patients using information collected during ED triage and compare the performance with that of the baseline model using the Korean Triage and Acuity Scale (KTAS).

Methods

To predict the need for critical care, we used 13 predictors from triage information: age, gender, mode of ED arrival, the time interval between onset and ED arrival, reason of ED visit, chief complaints, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, body temperature, oxygen saturation, and level of consciousness. The baseline model with KTAS was developed using logistic regression, and the machine learning model with 13 variables was generated using extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and deep neural network (DNN) algorithms. The discrimination was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The ability of calibration with Hosmer–Lemeshow test and reclassification with net reclassification index were evaluated. The calibration plot and partial dependence plot were used in the analysis.

Results

The AUROC of the model with the full set of variables (0.833-0.861) was better than that of the baseline model (0.796). The XGB model of AUROC 0.861 (95% CI 0.848-0.874) showed a higher discriminative performance than the DNN model of 0.833 (95% CI 0.819-0.848). The XGB and DNN models proved better reclassification than the baseline model with a positive net reclassification index. The XGB models were well-calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test; P>.05); however, the DNN showed poor calibration power (Hosmer-Lemeshow test; P<.001). We further interpreted the nonlinear association between variables and critical care prediction.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrated that the performance of the XGB model using initial information at ED triage for predicting patients in need of critical care outperformed the conventional model with KTAS.

Machine-Learning Techniques for Feature Selection and Prediction of Mortality in Elderly CABG Patients

Coronary artery bypass surgery grafting (CABG) is a commonly efficient treatment for coronary artery disease patients. Even if we know the underlying disease, and advancing age is related to survival, there is no research using the one year before surgery and operation-associated factors as predicting elements. This research used different machine-learning methods to select the features and predict older adults' survival (more than 65 years old). This nationwide population-based cohort study used the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), the largest and most complete dataset in Taiwan. We extracted the data of older patients who had received their first CABG surgery criteria between January 2008 and December 2009 (n = 3728), and we used five different machine-learning methods to select the features and predict survival rates. The results show that, without variable selection, XGBoost had the best predictive ability. Upon selecting XGBoost and adding the CHA2DS score, acute pancreatitis, and acute kidney failure for further predictive analysis, MARS had the best prediction performance, and it only needed 10 variables. This study's advantages are that it is innovative and useful for clinical decision making, and machine learning could achieve better prediction with fewer variables. If we could predict patients' survival risk before a CABG operation, early prevention and disease management would be possible.

Cognitive benefits of exercise interventions: an fMRI activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis

Despite a growing number of functional MRI studies reporting exercise-induced changes during cognitive processing, a systematic determination of the underlying neurobiological pathways is currently lacking. To this end, our neuroimaging meta-analysis included 20 studies and investigated the influence of physical exercise on cognition-related functional brain activation. The overall meta-analysis encompassing all experiments revealed physical exercise-induced changes in the left parietal lobe during cognitive processing. Subgroup analysis further revealed that in the younger-age group (< 35 years old) physical exercise induced more widespread changes in the right hemisphere, whereas in the older-age group (≥ 35 years old) exercise-induced changes were restricted to the left parietal lobe. Subgroup analysis for intervention duration showed that shorter exercise interventions induced changes in regions connected with frontoparietal and default mode networks, whereas regions exhibiting effects of longer interventions connected with frontoparietal and dorsal attention networks. Our findings suggest that physical exercise interventions lead to changes in functional activation patterns primarily located in precuneus and associated with frontoparietal, dorsal attention and default mode networks.