Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Analyze Patient Returns to the Emergency Department

Using a clinical narrative-aware pre-trained language model for predicting emergency department patient disposition and unscheduled return visits

The increasing prevalence of overcrowding in Emergency Departments (EDs) threatens the effective delivery of urgent healthcare. Mitigation strategies include the deployment of monitoring systems capable of tracking and managing patient disposition to facilitate appropriate and timely care, which subsequently reduces patient revisits, optimizes resource allocation, and enhances patient outcomes. This study used ∼ 250,000 emergency department visit records from Taipei Medical University-Shuang Ho Hospital to develop a natural language processing model using BlueBERT, a biomedical domain-specific pre-trained language model, to predict patient disposition status and unplanned readmissions. Data preprocessing and the integration of both structured and unstructured data were central to our approach. Compared to other models, BlueBERT outperformed due to its pre-training on a diverse range of medical literature, enabling it to better comprehend the specialized terminology, relationships, and context present in ED data. We found that translating Chinese-English clinical narratives into English and textualizing numerical data into categorical representations significantly improved the prediction of patient disposition (AUROC = 0.9014) and 72-hour unscheduled return visits (AUROC = 0.6475). The study concludes that the BlueBERT-based model demonstrated superior prediction capabilities, surpassing the performance of prior patient disposition predictive models, thus offering promising applications in the realm of ED clinical practice.

Benchmarking emergency department prediction models with machine learning and public electronic health records

The demand for emergency department (ED) services is increasing across the globe, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical triage and risk assessment have become increasingly challenging due to the shortage of medical resources and the strain on hospital infrastructure caused by the pandemic. As a result of the widespread use of electronic health records (EHRs), we now have access to a vast amount of clinical data, which allows us to develop prediction models and decision support systems to address these challenges. To date, there is no widely accepted clinical prediction benchmark related to the ED based on large-scale public EHRs. An open-source benchmark data platform would streamline research workflows by eliminating cumbersome data preprocessing, and facilitate comparisons among different studies and methodologies. Based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV Emergency Department (MIMIC-IV-ED) database, we created a benchmark dataset and proposed three clinical prediction benchmarks. This study provides future researchers with insights, suggestions, and protocols for managing data and developing predictive tools for emergency care.

An explanatory machine learning framework for studying pandemics: The case of COVID-19 emergency department readmissions

One of the major challenges that confront medical experts during a pandemic is the time required to identify and validate the risk factors of the novel disease and to develop an effective treatment protocol. Traditionally, this process involves numerous clinical trials that may take up to several years, during which strict preventive measures must be in place to control the outbreak and reduce the deaths. Advanced data analytics techniques, however, can be leveraged to guide and speed up this process. In this study, we combine evolutionary search algorithms, deep learning, and advanced model interpretation methods to develop a holistic exploratory-predictive-explanatory machine learning framework that can assist clinical decision-makers in reacting to the challenges of a pandemic in a timely manner. The proposed framework is showcased in studying emergency department (ED) readmissions of COVID-19 patients using ED visits from a real-world electronic health records database. After an exploratory feature selection phase using genetic algorithm, we develop and train a deep artificial neural network to predict early (i.e., 7-day) readmissions (AUC = 0.883). Lastly, a SHAP model is formulated to estimate additive Shapley values (i.e., importance scores) of the features and to interpret the magnitude and direction of their effects. The findings are mostly in line with those reported by lengthy and expensive clinical trial studies.

Overcrowding in Emergency Department: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions—A Narrative Review

Overcrowding in Emergency Departments (EDs) is a phenomenon that is now widespread globally and causes a significant negative impact that goes on to affect the entire hospital. This contributes to a number of consequences that can affect both the number of resources available and the quality of care. Overcrowding is due to a number of factors that in most cases lead to an increase in the number of people within the ED, an increase in mortality and morbidity, and a decrease in the ability to provide critical services in a timely manner to patients suffering from medical emergencies. This phenomenon results in the Emergency Department reaching, and in some cases exceeding, its optimal capacity. In this review, the main causes and consequences involving this phenomenon were collected, including the effect caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in recent years. Finally, special attention was paid to the main operational strategies that have been developed over the years, strategies that can be applied both at the ED level (microlevel strategies) and at the hospital level (macrolevel strategies).