Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector

Gone with the epidemic? The spatial effects of the Covid-19 on global investment network

The outbreak of Covid-19 epidemic has a prolonged impact on global economic activities. In recent years, many scholars have been motivated to estimate the effects of Covid-19 shock on global foreign direct investment (FDI). However, existing studies have not paid enough attention to the spillover effects caused by the epidemic. Although few academic works have explored the geographic-neighboring spillover effects of epidemic shock on global investment, we further extent the understanding of the spillover effects in an economic network. On the basis of country-month greenfield FDI panels, we construct a spatial Durbin model, and figure out that Covid-19 shock may have positive FDI spillover effects in an economic network via global FDI transfers. Furthermore, we find that such spillovers are greatly conditioned by country-level network position and institutional ties among nations. Our research suggests that global FDI transfers may partly offset economic-adverse effects of the Covid-19 shock. While global countries, especially those in the Global South, should be more closely embedded in the global investment network in such an uncertain environment.

Volatility spillovers across sectors and their magnitude: A sector-based analysis for Australia

While spillover across equity markets has been extensively investigated, volatility spillover across sectors has largely been under-examined in the current literature. This paper estimates the sectoral volatility using the ARMA-GARCH model and its spillover across Australian sectors on the VAR framework during the 2010-2021 period. We then identify breakpoints in market volatility during the Covid-19 pandemic using a wavelet methodology. We find that volatility spillover across Australian sectors is very significant at 60 per cent from 2010 to 2019, reaching 90 per cent during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The spillover then reverts to its pre-pandemic level in 2021. Consumer Staples and Industrials are the significant risk transmitters, whereas Financials and Real estates are the most significant risk absorbers. Our findings also indicate that Real Estate, Health Care, and Financials record the most significant increase in volatility of more than 300 per cent. Policy implications regarding risk management across Australian sectors have emerged, particularly during extreme events such as the pandemic.

Connectedness of COVID vaccination with economic policy uncertainty, oil, bonds, and sectoral equity markets: evidence from the US

We examine the connectedness of the COVID vaccination with the economic policy uncertainty, oil, bonds, and sectoral equity markets in the US within time and frequency domain. The wavelet-based findings show the positive impact of COVID vaccination on the oil and sector indices over various frequency scales and periods. The vaccination is evidenced to lead the oil and sectoral equity markets. More specifically, we document strong connectedness of vaccinations with communication services, financials, health care, industrials, information technology (IT) and real estate equity sectors. However, weak interactions exist within the vaccination-IT-services and vaccination-utilities pairs. Moreover, the effect of vaccination on the Treasury bond index is negative, whereas the economic policy uncertainty shows an interchanging lead and lag relation with vaccination. It is further observed that the interrelation between vaccination and the corporate bond index is insignificant. Overall, the impact of vaccination on the sectoral equity markets and economic policy uncertainty is higher than on oil and corporate bond prices. The study offers several important implications for investors, government regulators, and policymakers.

Unfolding and modeling the recovery process after COVID lockdowns

Lockdown is a common policy used to deter the spread of COVID-19. However, the question of how our society comes back to life after a lockdown remains an open one. Understanding how cities bounce back from lockdown is critical for promoting the global economy and preparing for future pandemics. Here, we propose a novel computational method based on electricity data to study the recovery process, and conduct a case study on the city of Hangzhou. With the designed Recovery Index, we find a variety of recovery patterns in main sectors. One of the main reasons for this difference is policy; therefore, we aim to answer the question of how policies can best facilitate the recovery of society. We first analyze how policy affects sectors and employ a change-point detection algorithm to provide a non-subjective approach to policy assessment. Furthermore, we design a model that can predict future recovery, allowing policies to be adjusted accordingly in advance. Specifically, we develop a deep neural network, TPG, to model recovery trends, which utilizes the graph structure learning to perceive influences between sectors. Simulation experiments using our model offer insights for policy-making: the government should prioritize supporting sectors that have greater influence on others and are influential on the whole economy.

A Markov Switching Approach in Assessing Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus in the Last Decade: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

We revisit the oil price and stock market nexus by considering the impact of major economic shocks in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) scenario. Our breakpoint unit root test and Markov switching regression (MRS) analyses using West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) market index show that among the major economic events, the recent coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is the most significant contributor to market volatilities. Furthermore, our MRS results show that the relationship between oil price and the stock market is regime-dependent; the stock market experiences substantial and positive shocks in a volatile oil price regime. Our results provide valuable insights to investors and policymakers regarding risk management and financial market stability during economic crisis periods, specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Visual analysis of social events and stock market volatility in China and the USA during the pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most severe infectious diseases in recent decades, and has had a significant impact on the global economy, and the stock market. Most existing studies on stock market volatility during the pandemic have been conducted from a data science perspective, with statistical analysis and mathematical models often revealing the superficial relationship between Covid and the stock market at the data level. In contrast, few studies have explored the relationship between more specialised aspects of the pandemic. Specifically, the relationship found between major social events and the stock market. In this work, a multi-source, data-based relationship analysis method is proposed, that collects historical data on significant social events and related stock data in China and the USA, to further explore the potential correlation between stock market index fluctuations and the impact of social events by analysing cross-timeline data. The results suggest and offer more evidence that social events do indeed impact equity markets, and that the indices in both China and the USA were also affected more by the epidemic in 2020 than in 2021, and these indices became less affected by the epidemic as it became the world adapted. Moreover, these relationships may also be influenced by a variety of other factors not covered in this study. This research, so far, is in its initial stage, and the methodology is not rigorous and cannot be applied as an individual tool for decision; however, it could potentially serve as a supplementary tool and provide a multi-dimensional basis for stock investors and policymakers to make decisions.

Pre- and post-COVID-19: The impact of the pandemic and stock market psychology on the growth and sustainability of consumer goods industries

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and stock market psychology on investor investment decisions in different business units operating in the Shandong stock market. The sample size of the study consists of 5,000 individuals from six different business units. The study used the event study statistical technique to analyze the market reaction to newly released information from the stock market perspective to assess whether the number of COVID-19 positive cases impacted it. With a Z score value of 40.345 and a P-value of 0.000, the Wilcoxon test indicated that stock prices before and after the pandemic were quite different. The test showed a positive relationship between the pandemic and the stock market. Further, the results indicated that COVID-19 and stock market psychology had a significant positive impact on investor investment decisions in cosmetic and beauty, consumer household, textiles and apparel, and consumer electronics industries; however, in the sporting and consumer appliance industries, it had an insignificant negative impact. This study serves to guide investors to make suitable changes in their stock market trading practices to counter these challenges to increase their required rate of return from their specific stock market investment. The findings have important insights for various stakeholders including governments, regulatory bodies, practitioners, academia, industry, and researchers.

Do commodity assets hedge uncertainties? What we learn from the recent turbulence period?

This study analyses the impact of different uncertainties on commodity markets to assess commodity markets' hedging or safe-haven properties. Using time-varying dynamic conditional correlation and wavelet-based Quantile-on-Quantile regression models, our findings show that, both before and during the COVID-19 crisis, soybeans and clean energy stocks offer strong safe-haven opportunities against cryptocurrency price uncertainty and geopolitical risks (GPR). Soybean markets weakly hedge cryptocurrency policy uncertainty, US economic policy uncertainty, and crude oil volatility. In addition, GSCI commodity and crude oil also offer a weak safe-haven property against cryptocurrency uncertainties and GPR. Consistent with earlier studies, our findings indicate that safe-haven traits can alter across frequencies and quantiles. Our findings have significant implications for investors and regulators in hedging and making proper decisions, respectively, under diverse uncertain circumstances.

How resilient are Islamic financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic?

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a massive disruption to the finance sector. Islamic financial markets are no exception. We explore the resilience of Islamic financial markets to the COVID-19 pandemic vis-à-vis conventional markets. A comparative analysis of the impact of the first and second waves of COVID-19 is also conducted. We use five Dow Jones Islamic stock indices and two bond indices and their conventional counterparts as proxies of Islamic and conventional financial markets. Using wavelet, wavelet-based Granger causality, hedge ratio, optimal weights, and hedging effectiveness methods from January 1, 2019, to February 26, 2021, our empirical estimates indicate that both Islamic and conventional stock indices are almost similarly affected by the extreme market turbulence triggered by COVID-19. Hence, Islamic stock markets fail to provide diversification benefits. We also unveil no significant differences between the first and second waves of COVID-19 in the case of dependency. Conversely, Islamic bonds exhibit low dependence on their conventional counterparts, indicating their diversification benefits. We further demonstrate that Islamic and conventional bond pairs could be utilized as a strong portfolio mix because the least hedging cost and highest hedging effectiveness are observed in those portfolios, especially during COVID-19. Overall, our results suggest that global Sukuk offers more resilience in times of extreme market turmoil than other instruments considered in this study. Our findings present global investors and regulators with new insights on diversification and hedging strategy with Islamic finance during a worldwide, severe economic crisis. We present some policy recommendations in creating a more sustainable financial system post-COVID-19.

The Effects of Health Crisis on Economic Growth, Health and Movement of Population

The COVID-19 pandemic crisis, which was triggered in 2019 with oscillating evolution in 2020 and 2021, was a factor that has had dramatic effects on the economic growth of countries worldwide. In the context of the pandemic crisis, population health has deteriorated; education and economic activity in all the countries around the world have been affected. The main purpose of this paper is to highlight the special situations that humanity is experiencing as a result of the unprecedented effects that the COVID-19 crisis is having on the socioeconomic evolution. Specific statistical econometric methods (such as analysis of linear correlations, multiple linear regression, analysis based on dynamics indicators, and spectral analysis, comparability based on indices) were applied to highlight the evolution and future prospects of the COVID-19 virus worldwide. The COVID-19 crisis has generated another major issue for mankind, along with global warming and the energy transition, namely, population health. For this reason, in this study, we focused on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on population health in a broader context; the sustained growth of populations in developing countries and aging populations in developed economies.

On Hedging Properties of Infrastructure Assets during the Pandemic: What We Learn from Global and Emerging Markets?

Infrastructure investment is essential for economic development for both developed and developing economies. We analyze the short-term return behavior and portfolio characteristics of the global, regional, and selected Asian countries’ infrastructure indexes during the pandemic over the sample period 3 July 2018 to 1 July 2021. According to the multivariate Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (GJR) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, infrastructure assets are very heterogeneous depending on the corresponding asset classes. Empirical evidence suggests that infrastructure can be treated as a separate asset sub-class within conventional financial assets. Moreover, we quantify the co-movements between returns on various listed infrastructure indexes and major asset classes, including equity, commodity, currency, and bond index returns. We find that infrastructure assets offer hedging potential against the USD index and USD denominated assets.

The Contributions of Biomass Supply for Bioenergy in the Post-COVID-19 Recovery

This research investigates how biomass supply chains (BSChs) for bioenergy within the broader bioeconomy could contribute to the post-COVID-19 recovery in three dimensions: boosting economic growth, creating jobs, and building more resilient and cleaner energy systems in four future scenarios, in the short term (by 2023) and long term (by 2030). A SWOT analysis on BSChs was used for generating a questionnaire for foresight by a two-round Delphi study. To interpret the results properly, a short survey and literature review is executed to record BSChs behavior during the pandemic. In total, 23 (55% response rate) and 28 (46% response rate) biomass experts from three continents participated in the Delphi and the short survey, respectively. The strongest impact from investment in BSChs would be on economic growth, followed by a contribution to the resilient and cleaner energy systems and job creation. The effects would be more visible in the long- than in the short-term period. Investments with the most impact on recovery are those that improve biomass material efficiency and circularity. Refurbishment of current policies to enhance the supply of biomass as a renewable resource to the future economy is a must.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets: Conventional vs. Islamic indices using wavelet-based multi-timescales analysis

We empirically explore the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on Islamic and conventional stock markets from a global perspective. We also explore the co-movement between Islamic and conventional stock markets. Two comparable pairs of conventional and Islamic stock indices – Dow Jones Index and FTSE Index are considered in this study. Employing Wavelet-based multi-timescales techniques on the daily data from 21st January to 27th November 2020, our findings indicate that the pandemic creates identical volatility in both stock markets. Our findings further suggest that both markets are strongly associated and tend to co-move highly during our sample period, rebutting the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from the conventional market. However, the Shariah screening process fails to provide immunity to Islamic stock markets against financial crises. Our findings suggest that investors should be aware that Islamic stocks' conservative features do not present a superior investment alternative, especially in economic turmoil.

Are safe haven assets really safe during the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic?

This study evaluates the safe-haven role of twelve assets against the US stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that silver and the Islamic stock index were safe havens during the 2008 GFC, and the Islamic stock index and Tether have been safe havens during COVID-19. We observe that the Islamic stock index and Tether have emerged as strong new safe havens. However, our supplementary analysis reveals that gold and Bitcoin still exhibit safe-haven behavior during severe market downturns. Overall, our findings suggest that safe-haven assets may vary over time.

Decline in Share Prices of Energy and Fuel Companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as a Reaction to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Many factors influence the prices of energy commodities and the value of energy and fuel companies. Among them there are the following factors: economic, social, environmental and political, and recently also the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the paper is to examine what the probability and intensity of a decrease in the prices of shares of energy and fuel companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (Poland) was during the first wave of the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. The study used the survival analysis methods: the Kaplan-Meier estimator, the test of equality of duration curves and the Cox non-proportional hazards model. The analysis showed that the probability and intensity of price decline of energy and fuel companies in the initial period was the same as that of other companies. The differences become apparent only after 50 days from the established maximum of their value. The risk of price declines in energy and fuel companies increased significantly. This situation was related both to a temporary reduction in demand for energy and fuels, pandemic restrictions introduced in individual countries and the behaviour of stock market investors.