1
|
Fan Q, Li Q, Chen Y, Tang J. Modeling COVID-19 spread using multi-agent simulation with small-world network approach. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:672. [PMID: 38431581 PMCID: PMC10909264 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18157-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2023] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The rapid global spread of COVID-19 has seriously impacted people's daily lives and the social economy while also posing a threat to their lives. The analysis of infectious disease transmission is of significant importance for the rational allocation of epidemic prevention and control resources, the management of public health emergencies, and the improvement of future public health systems. METHODS We propose a spatiotemporal COVID-19 transmission model with a neighborhood as an agent unit and an urban spatial network with long and short edge connections. The spreading model includes a network of defined agent attributes, transformation rules, and social relations and a small world network representing agents' social relations. Parameters for each stage are fitted by the Runge-Kutta method combined with the SEIR model. Using the NetLogo development platform, accurate dynamic simulations of the spatial and temporal evolution of the early epidemic were achieved. RESULTS Experimental results demonstrate that the fitted curves from the four stages agree with actual data, with only a 12.27% difference between the average number of infected agents and the actual number of infected agents after simulating 1 hundred times. Additionally, the model simulates and compares different "city closure" scenarios. The results showed that implementing a 'lockdown' 10 days earlier would lead to the peak number of infections occurring 7 days earlier than in the normal scenario, with a reduction of 40.35% in the total number of infections. DISCUSSION Our methodology emphasizes the crucial role of timely epidemic interventions in curbing the spread of infectious diseases, notably in the predictive assessment and evaluation of lockdown strategies. Furthermore, this approach adeptly forecasts the influence of varying intervention timings on peak infection rates and total case numbers, accurately reflecting real-world virus transmission patterns. This highlights the importance of proactive measures in diminishing epidemic impacts. It furnishes a robust framework, empowering policymakers to refine epidemic response strategies based on a synthesis of predictive modeling and empirical data.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qin Fan
- School of Civil and Surveying & Mapping Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, 341000, China
| | - Qun Li
- Urban Planning Desion Institute of Ganzhou, Ganzhou, 341000, China
| | - Youliang Chen
- School of Civil and Surveying & Mapping Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, 341000, China.
- Department of Geo-informatics, Central South University, Changsha, 410000, China.
| | - Jianbo Tang
- Department of Geo-informatics, Central South University, Changsha, 410000, China
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Assaad RH, Assaf G, Boufadel M. Optimizing the maintenance strategies for a network of green infrastructure: An agent-based model for stormwater detention basins. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 330:117179. [PMID: 36608609 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 11/28/2022] [Accepted: 12/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Various stormwater best management practices and green infrastructures (GIs) are recommended to address flooding, stormwater runoff, water quality, and sustainability. While detention basins are considered one of the main GI strategies, their benefits cannot be fully realized without properly maintaining them and making sure that they stay operational. Therefore, this paper used agent-based modeling (ABM) to devise an optimal maintenance program for detention basins to ensure that they function properly and continue to perform their water quality and flood control functions. More specifically, the following 2 agent types were incorporated in the model: 1) the detention basins were considered as static agents, and 2) the service teams responsible for the operation (maintenance, repair, and replacement) of the detention basins were considered as active agents. The developed ABM was applied for the entire network of stormwater detention basins in Newark, NJ. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most critical variables affecting the total cost of operating the network of detention basins as well as the functioning percentage of detention basins. In addition, optimization was implemented to determine the best maintenance program or policy that minimizes the total cost of operations, while also making sure that a desired functionality level or threshold is achieved for the entire network of detention basins. Finally, the ABM was statistically validated using a total of 10,000 Monte Carlo runs and 99% confidence intervals. The optimization results showed that, in order to minimize the total cost of maintaining the entire network of detention basins and ensure that at least 80% of the basins are in a functioning state at the end of the planning horizon, the decision-maker should implement the following maintenance program or strategy: have 2 service teams for the operations of the detention basins, follow a replacement policy, and replace detention basins after 3 maintenance periods. Also, the identified optimal maintenance program or strategy would result with an average total annual cost of around $4,085,000, where the average annual repair cost is around $2,572,200, the average annual maintenance cost is around $19,700, the average annual replacement cost is around $763,100, and the average annual service team cost is around $730,000. The proposed ABM for detention basins can be extended to other GIs as well as to different geographical areas. The usage of ABM has the advantage to reduce the subjectivity in developing plans for managing GIs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rayan H Assaad
- Smart Construction and Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (SCIIS) Lab, John A. Reif, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, 07102, USA.
| | - Ghiwa Assaf
- John A. Reif, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, 07102, USA.
| | - Michel Boufadel
- Center for Natural Resources, John A. Reif, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, 07102, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Mahdizadeh Gharakhanlou N, Mesgari MS, Hooshangi N. Developing an agent-based model for simulating the dynamic spread of Plasmodium vivax malaria: A case study of Sarbaz, Iran. ECOL INFORM 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.101006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
|
4
|
Smith NR, Trauer JM, Gambhir M, Richards JS, Maude RJ, Keith JM, Flegg JA. Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review. Malar J 2018; 17:299. [PMID: 30119664 PMCID: PMC6098619 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-018-2442-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2018] [Accepted: 08/04/2018] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Much of the extensive research regarding transmission of malaria is underpinned by mathematical modelling. Compartmental models, which focus on interactions and transitions between population strata, have been a mainstay of such modelling for more than a century. However, modellers are increasingly adopting agent-based approaches, which model hosts, vectors and/or their interactions on an individual level. One reason for the increasing popularity of such models is their potential to provide enhanced realism by allowing system-level behaviours to emerge as a consequence of accumulated individual-level interactions, as occurs in real populations. METHODS A systematic review of 90 articles published between 1998 and May 2018 was performed, characterizing agent-based models (ABMs) relevant to malaria transmission. The review provides an overview of approaches used to date, determines the advantages of these approaches, and proposes ideas for progressing the field. RESULTS The rationale for ABM use over other modelling approaches centres around three points: the need to accurately represent increased stochasticity in low-transmission settings; the benefits of high-resolution spatial simulations; and heterogeneities in drug and vaccine efficacies due to individual patient characteristics. The success of these approaches provides avenues for further exploration of agent-based techniques for modelling malaria transmission. Potential extensions include varying elimination strategies across spatial landscapes, extending the size of spatial models, incorporating human movement dynamics, and developing increasingly comprehensive parameter estimation and optimization techniques. CONCLUSION Collectively, the literature covers an extensive array of topics, including the full spectrum of transmission and intervention regimes. Bringing these elements together under a common framework may enhance knowledge of, and guide policies towards, malaria elimination. However, because of the diversity of available models, endorsing a standardized approach to ABM implementation may not be possible. Instead it is recommended that model frameworks be contextually appropriate and sufficiently described. One key recommendation is to develop enhanced parameter estimation and optimization techniques. Extensions of current techniques will provide the robust results required to enhance current elimination efforts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Neal R Smith
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - James M Trauer
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Manoj Gambhir
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- IBM Research Australia, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jack S Richards
- Life Sciences, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Richard J Maude
- Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, USA
| | - Jonathan M Keith
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Australia
| | - Jennifer A Flegg
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Tomkins M, Kliot A, Marée AF, Hogenhout SA. A multi-layered mechanistic modelling approach to understand how effector genes extend beyond phytoplasma to modulate plant hosts, insect vectors and the environment. CURRENT OPINION IN PLANT BIOLOGY 2018; 44:39-48. [PMID: 29547737 DOI: 10.1016/j.pbi.2018.02.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2017] [Revised: 02/05/2018] [Accepted: 02/06/2018] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Members of the Candidatus genus Phytoplasma are small bacterial pathogens that hijack their plant hosts via the secretion of virulence proteins (effectors) leading to a fascinating array of plant phenotypes, such as witch's brooms (stem proliferations) and phyllody (retrograde development of flowers into vegetative tissues). Phytoplasma depend on insect vectors for transmission, and interestingly, these insect vectors were found to be (in)directly attracted to plants with these phenotypes. Therefore, phytoplasma effectors appear to reprogram plant development and defence to lure insect vectors, similarly to social engineering malware, which employs tricks to lure people to infected computers and webpages. A multi-layered mechanistic modelling approach will enable a better understanding of how phytoplasma effector-mediated modulations of plant host development and insect vector behaviour contribute to phytoplasma spread, and ultimately to predict the long reach of phytoplasma effector genes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Melissa Tomkins
- Department of Computational and Systems Biology, The John Innes Centre, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7UH, United Kingdom
| | - Adi Kliot
- Department of Crop Genetics, The John Innes Centre, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7UH, United Kingdom
| | - Athanasius Fm Marée
- Department of Computational and Systems Biology, The John Innes Centre, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7UH, United Kingdom.
| | - Saskia A Hogenhout
- Department of Crop Genetics, The John Innes Centre, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7UH, United Kingdom.
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Deilami K, Hayes JF, McGree J, Goonetilleke A. Application of landscape epidemiology to assess potential public health risk due to poor sanitation. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2017; 192:124-133. [PMID: 28157615 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.01.051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2016] [Revised: 01/19/2017] [Accepted: 01/22/2017] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Clear identification of areas vulnerable to waterborne diseases is essential for protecting community health. This is particularly important in developing countries where unsafe disposal of domestic wastewater and limited potable water supply pose potential public health risks. However, data paucity can be a compounding issue. Under these circumstances, landscape epidemiology can be applied as a resource efficient approach for mapping potential disease risk areas associated with poor sanitation. However, in order to realise the full potential offered by this approach, an in-depth understanding of the impact of different classes of an explanatory variable on a target disease and the validity of hotspot analysis using limited datasets is needed. Accordingly, this research study focused on typhoid and diarrhoea incidence with respect to different classes of elevation, flood inundation, land use, soil permeability, population density and rainfall as explanatory variables. An integrated methodology consisting of hot spot analysis and Poisson regression was employed to map potential disease risk areas. The study findings confirmed the significant differences in the influence exerted by the various classes of an explanatory variable in relation to a target disease. The results also confirmed the feasibility of the hotspot analysis for identifying areas vulnerable to the target diseases using a limited dataset. The study outcomes are expected to contribute to creating an in-depth understanding of the relationship between disease prevalence and associated landscape factors for the delineation of disease risk zones in the context of data paucity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kaveh Deilami
- Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia
| | - John F Hayes
- Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia
| | - James McGree
- Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia
| | - Ashantha Goonetilleke
- Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Comparative Approaches for Innovation in Agent-Based Modelling of Landscape Change. LAND 2016. [DOI: 10.3390/land5020013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
|
8
|
Pizzitutti F, Pan W, Barbieri A, Miranda JJ, Feingold B, Guedes GR, Alarcon-Valenzuela J, Mena CF. A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment. Malar J 2015; 14:514. [PMID: 26696294 PMCID: PMC4688926 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-015-1030-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2015] [Accepted: 12/02/2015] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models. METHODS This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment. RESULTS A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A "what if" eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village. CONCLUSIONS The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - William Pan
- Duke University, 310 Trent Drive, Room 227, Box 90519, Durham, NC, 27708, USA.
| | - Alisson Barbieri
- Instituto de Geociências-IGC Belo Horizonte, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horozonte, Brazil.
| | - J Jaime Miranda
- Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
| | - Beth Feingold
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University at Albany, State University of New York, 1 University Place GEC, 145 Rensselaer, New York, NY, 12144, USA.
| | - Gilvan R Guedes
- College of Economics Departamento de Demografia/FACE/UFMG, Office 3093, Av. Antônio Carlos, 6627-Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 31270-901, Brazil.
| | | | - Carlos F Mena
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Diego de Robles, s/n, Cumbayá, Ecuador.
| |
Collapse
|