Restricted Gompertz-Type Diffusion Processes with Periodic Regulation Functions

Exact solutions and asymptotic behaviors for the reflected Wiener, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Feller diffusion processes

We analyze the transition probability density functions in the presence of a zero-flux condition in the zero-state and their asymptotic behaviors for the Wiener, Ornstein Uhlenbeck and Feller diffusion processes. Particular attention is paid to the time-inhomogeneous proportional cases and to the time-homogeneous cases. A detailed study of the moments of first-passage time and of their asymptotic behaviors is carried out for the time-homogeneous cases. Some relationships between the transition probability density functions for the restricted Wiener, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Feller processes are proved. Specific applications of the results to queueing systems are provided.

Statistical analysis and first-passage-time applications of a lognormal diffusion process with multi-sigmoidal logistic mean

We consider a lognormal diffusion process having a multisigmoidal logistic mean, useful to model the evolution of a population which reaches the maximum level of the growth after many stages. Referring to the problem of statistical inference, two procedures to find the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters are described. One is based on the resolution of the system of the critical points of the likelihood function, and the other is on the maximization of the likelihood function with the simulated annealing algorithm. A simulation study to validate the described strategies for finding the estimates is also presented, with a real application to epidemiological data. Special attention is also devoted to the first-passage-time problem of the considered diffusion process through a fixed boundary.

A generalized Gompertz growth model with applications and related birth-death processes

In this paper, we propose a flexible growth model that constitutes a suitable generalization of the well-known Gompertz model. We perform an analysis of various features of interest, including a sensitivity analysis of the initial value and the three parameters of the model. We show that the considered model provides a good fit to some real datasets concerning the growth of the number of individuals infected during the COVID-19 outbreak, and software failure data. The goodness of fit is established on the ground of the ISRP metric and the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$d_2$$\end{document}d2-distance. We also analyze two time-inhomogeneous stochastic processes, namely a birth-death process and a birth process, whose means are equal to the proposed growth curve. In the first case we obtain the probability of ultimate extinction, being 0 an absorbing endpoint. We also deal with a threshold crossing problem both for the proposed growth curve and the corresponding birth process. A simulation procedure for the latter process is also exploited.

Optimal minimum variance-entropy control of tumour growth processes based on the Fokker-Planck equation

The authors demonstrated an optimal stochastic control algorithm to obtain desirable cancer treatment based on the Gompertz model. Two external forces as two time-dependent functions are presented to manipulate the growth and death rates in the drift term of the Gompertz model. These input signals represent the effect of external treatment agents to decrease tumour growth rate and increase tumour death rate, respectively. Entropy and variance of cancerous cells are simultaneously controlled based on the Gompertz model. They have introduced a constrained optimisation problem whose cost function is the variance of a cancerous cells population. The defined entropy is based on the probability density function of affected cells was used as a constraint for the cost function. Analysing growth and death rates of cancerous cells, it is found that the logarithmic control signal reduces the growth rate, while the hyperbolic tangent-like control function increases the death rate of tumour growth. The two optimal control signals were calculated by converting the constrained optimisation problem into an unconstrained optimisation problem and by using the real-coded genetic algorithm. Mathematical justifications are implemented to elucidate the existence and uniqueness of the solution for the optimal control problem.

Inference on an heteroscedastic Gompertz tumor growth model

We consider a non homogeneous Gompertz diffusion process whose parameters are modified by generally time-dependent exogenous factors included in the infinitesimal moments. The proposed model is able to describe tumor dynamics under the effect of anti-proliferative and/or cell death-induced therapies. We assume that such therapies can modify also the infinitesimal variance of the diffusion process. An estimation procedure, based on a control group and two treated groups, is proposed to infer the model by estimating the constant parameters and the time-dependent terms. Moreover, several concatenated hypothesis tests are considered in order to confirm or reject the need to include time-dependent functions in the infinitesimal moments. Simulations are provided to evaluate the efficiency of the suggested procedures and to validate the testing hypothesis. Finally, an application to real data is considered.

Powers of the Stochastic Gompertz and Lognormal Diffusion Processes, Statistical Inference and Simulation

In this paper, we study a new family of Gompertz processes, defined by the power of the homogeneous Gompertz diffusion process, which we term the powers of the stochastic Gompertz diffusion process. First, we show that this homogenous Gompertz diffusion process is stable, by power transformation, and determine the probabilistic characteristics of the process, i.e., its analytic expression, the transition probability density function and the trend functions. We then study the statistical inference in this process. The parameters present in the model are studied by using the maximum likelihood estimation method, based on discrete sampling, thus obtaining the expression of the likelihood estimators and their ergodic properties. We then obtain the power process of the stochastic lognormal diffusion as the limit of the Gompertz process being studied and go on to obtain all the probabilistic characteristics and the statistical inference. Finally, the proposed model is applied to simulated data.