Do Seropositive Wild Boars Pose a Risk for the Spread of African Swine Fever? Analysis of Field Data from Latvia and Lithuania

Landscape connectivity for predicting the spread of ASF in the European wild boar population

African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious and highly fatal disease affecting wild and domestic swine, which is unstoppably spreading worldwide. In Europe, wild boars are one of the main drivers of spread, transmission, and maintenance of the disease. Landscape connectivity studies are the main discipline to analyze wild-species dispersal networks, and it can be an essential tool to predict dispersal-wild boar movement routes and probabilities and therefore the associated potential ASF spread through the suitable habitat. We aimed to integrate wild boar habitat connectivity predictions with their occurrence, population abundance, and ASF notifications to calculate the impact (i.e., the capacity of a landscape feature to favor ASF spread) and the risk (i.e., the likelihood of a habitat patch becoming infected) of wild boar infection across Europe. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the risk of infection by comparing the results with the temporal distribution of ASF cases. Our findings identified the areas with the highest impact and risk factors within Europe's central and Eastern regions where ASF is currently distributed. Additionally, the impact factor was 31 times higher on habitat patches that were infected vs non-infected, proving the utility of the proposed approach and the key role of wild boar movements in ASF-spread. All data and resulting maps are openly accessible and usable.

African Swine Fever: The State of the Art in Italy

African swine fever (ASF) is a severe viral disease of domestic pigs and Eurasian wild boars (Sus scrofa) caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV). ASF is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa, where 24 genotypes of the virus have been reported. Between the late 1950s and the early 1980s, genotype I ASFV emerged in Europe, including Italy. In June 2007, a second ASF epidemic wave caused by genotype II was registered, involving several European and extra-European countries, including Italy in 2022. The present paper aims to provide the state of the art of ASF in Italy, describing the course of ASF in wild boars and domestic pigs as an example of multiple concurring different scenarios. Sardinia is coping with the last phase of the eradication of the disease by applying the exit strategy. Conversely, four clusters of infection located in North, Central, and South Italy are still ongoing. The unique and complex Italian experience in ASF-controlling may be useful to increase know-how on the efficacy of strategies and measures, as well as issues that could be further improved.