Estimating the Directional Spread of Epidemics in Their Early Stages Using a Simple Regression Approach: A Study on African Swine Fever in Northern Italy

Wild Boar Proves High Tolerance to Human-Caused Disruptions: Management Implications in African Swine Fever Outbreaks

Currently, African swine fever (ASF), a highly fatal disease has become pervasive, with outbreaks recorded across European countries, leading to preventative measures to restrict wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) movement, and, therefore, keep ASF from spreading. This study aims to detail how specific human activities-defined as "car", "dog", "chainsaw", and "tourism"-affect wild boar behavior, considering the disturbance proximity, and evaluate possible implications for wild boar management in ASF-affected areas. Wild boar behavior was studied using advanced biologging technology. This study tracks and analyzes wild boar movements and behavioral responses to human disturbances. This study utilizes the dead reckoning method to precisely reconstruct the animal movements and evaluate behavioral changes based on proximity to disturbances. The sound of specific human activities was reproduced for telemetered animals from forest roads from different distances. Statistical analyses show that wild boars exhibit increased vigilance and altered movement patterns in response to closer human activity, but only in a small number of cases and with no significantly longer time scale. The relative representation of behaviors after disruption confirmed a high instance of resting behavior (83%). Running was the least observed reaction in only 0.9% of all cases. The remaining reactions were identified as foraging (5.1%), walking (5.0%), standing (2.2%), and other (3.8%). The findings suggest that while human presence and activities do influence wild boar behavior, adherence to movement restrictions and careful management of human activity in ASF-infected areas is not a necessary measure if human movement is limited to forest roads.

The Long-Jumping of African Swine Fever: First Genotype II Notified in Sardinia, Italy

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of domestic pigs and wild boar that is spreading quickly around the world and causing huge economic losses. Although the development of effective vaccines is currently being attempted by several labs, the absence of globally recognized licensed vaccines makes disease prevention and early detection even more crucial. ASF has spread across many countries in Europe and about two years ago affected the Italian susceptible population. In Italy, the first case of ASF genotype II in wild boar dates back to January 2022, while the first outbreak in a domestic pig farm was notified in August 2023. Currently, four clusters of infection are still ongoing in northern (Piedmont-Liguria and Lombardy), central (Lazio), and southern Italy (Calabria and Campania). In early September 2023, the first case of ASFV genotype II was detected in a domestic pig farm in Sardinia, historically affected by genotype I and in the final stage of eradication. Genomic characterization of p72, p54, and I73R/I329L genome regions revealed 100% similarity to those obtained from isolates that have been circulating in mainland Italy since January 2022 and also with international strains. The outbreak was detected and confirmed due to the passive surveillance plan on domestic pig farms put in place to provide evidence on genotype I's absence. Epidemiological investigations suggest 24 August as the most probable time of ASFV genotype II's arrival in Sardinia, likely due to human activities.