Stability of African Swine Fever Virus in Soil and Options to Mitigate the Potential Transmission Risk

The role of vehicle movement in swine disease dissemination: Novel method accounting for pathogen stability and vehicle cleaning effectiveness uncertainties

Several propagation routes drive animal disease dissemination, and among these routes, contaminated vehicles traveling between farms have been associated with indirect disease transmission. In this study, we used near-real-time vehicle movement data and vehicle cleaning efficacy to reconstruct the between-farm dissemination of the African swine fever virus (ASFV). We collected one year of Global Positioning System data of 823 vehicles transporting feed, pigs, and people to 6363 swine production farms in two regions in the U.S. Without cleaning, vehicles connected up to 2157 farms in region one and 437 farms in region two. Individually, in region one vehicles transporting feed connected 2151 farms, pigs to farms 2089 farms, pigs to market 1507 farms, undefined vehicles 1760 farm, and personnel three farms. The simulation results indicated that the contact networks were reduced the most for crew transport vehicles with a 66% reduction, followed by vehicles carrying pigs to market and farms, with reductions of 43% and 26%, respectively, when 100% cleaning efficacy was achieved. The results of this study showed that even when vehicle cleaning and disinfection are 100% effective, vehicles are still connected to numerous farms. This emphasizes the importance of better understanding transmission risks posed by vehicles to the swine industry and regulatory agencies.

Application of propidium monoazide quantitative PCR to discriminate of infectious African swine fever viruses

Introduction

The detection of African swine fever virus (ASFV) is commonly performed using quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), a widely used virological method known for its high sensitivity and specificity. However, qPCR has a limitation in distinguishing between infectious and inactivated virus, which can lead to an overestimation of viral targets.

Methods

To provide insights into ASFV infectivity, we evaluated the suitability of PMAxx, an improved version of propidium monoazide (PMA), as a means to differentiate between infectious and non-infectious ASFV. Pre-treatment with 50 μM PMAxx for 15 min significantly reduced the qPCR signal of ASFV in the live vaccine. Additionally, thermal treatment at 85°C for 5 min effectively inactivated the live ASFV in the vaccine. Based on a standard curve, the sensitivity of the PMAxx-qPCR assay was estimated to be approximately 10 copies/μL. Furthermore, we observed a strong agreement between the results obtained from PMAxx-qPCR and pig challenge experiments. Moreover, we utilized the PMAxx-qPCR assay to investigate the persistence of ASFV, revealing a close relationship between viral persistence and factors such as temperature and type of piggery materials.

Conclusion

The findings of this study suggest that pre-treating viruses with PMAxx prior to qPCR is a reliable method for distinguishing between infectious and non-infectious ASFV. Thus, integrating of PMAxx-qPCR into routine diagnostic protocols holds potential for improving the interpretation of positive ASFV results obtained through qPCR.

Stability of African swine fever virus genome under different environmental conditions

Background and Aim

African swine fever (ASF), a globally transmitted viral disease caused by ASF virus (ASFV), can severely damage the global trade economy. Laboratory diagnostic methods, including pathogen and serological detection techniques, are currently used to monitor and control ASF. Because the large double-stranded DNA genome of the mature virus particle is wrapped in a membrane, the stability of ASFV and its genome is maintained in most natural environments. This study aimed to investigate the stability of ASFV under different environmental conditions from both genomic and antibody perspectives, and to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and elimination of ASFV.

Materials and Methods

In this study, we used quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction for pathogen assays and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for serological assays to examine the stability of the ASFV genome and antibody, respectively, under different environmental conditions.

Results

The stability of the ASFV genome and antibody under high-temperature conditions depended on the treatment time. In the pH test, the ASFV genome and antibody remained stable in both acidic and alkaline environments. Disinfection tests revealed that the ASFV genome and antibody were susceptible to standard disinfection methods.

Conclusion

Collectively, the results demonstrated that the ASFV genome is highly stable in favorable environments but are also susceptible to standard disinfection methods. This study focuses on the stability of the ASFV genome under different conditions and provides various standard disinfection methods for the prevention and control of ASF.

The diffusion metrics of African swine fever in wild boar

To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretable metrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the required measures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wild boar follows the mechanics of a diffusion process, at least in the early phase, for the cases that occurred in Germany. Following incursion into a previously unaffected area, infection disseminates locally within a naive and abundant wild boar population. Using real case data for Germany, we derive statistics about the time differences and distances between consecutive case reports. With the use of these statistics, we generate an ensemble of random walkers (continuous time random walks, CTRW) that resemble the properties of the observed outbreak pattern as one possible realization of all possible disease dissemination patterns. The trained random walker ensemble yields the diffusion constant, the affected area, and the outbreak velocity of early ASF spread in wild boar. These methods are easy to interpret, robust, and may be adapted for different regions. Therefore, diffusion metrics can be useful descriptors of early disease dynamics and help facilitate efficient control of African Swine Fever.

Compliance of biosecurity practices for compartmentalization to foot-mouth disease and classical swine fever viruses in commercial swine companies from southern Brazil

Classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-mouth disease (FMD) are both highly contagious disease and disruptive to commercial trades, but they are examples of foreign animal diseases that biosecurity-based compartmentalization could be used to support trade in free zones in response to an outbreak. This study aimed to evaluate biosecurity compliance to the Federal Normative Instruction #44 from December 4th, 2017 (BRAZIL, 2017) in commercial swine farms located in southern Brazil. A total of 604 swine farms from 10 commercial swine companies were sampled, from which 28.5% were breeding farms, 29.1% nursery, 32.8% finishing, 6.8% multipliers, and 2.8% farrow-to-finish. Cluster analyses revealed that farms with high compliance (n = 303, Cluster 1) performed 71% of the practices, moderate (n = 219, Cluster 2) 47%, and the low (n = 82, Cluster 3) 33%. A spatial logistic regression model estimated that biosecurity compliance was highest in only one of 10 commercial swine companies, and within a company, multipliers (when present) obtained the highest biosecurity compliance (p-value < 0.01). These results suggest that major improvements in biosecurity practices are needed in breeding herds, nursery, and grow-finish farms to be compliant to the Federal Instruction #44. Based on the combination of these analyses, only one commercial swine company was more suitable to establish compartments for CSF and FMD with minimal investments. Still, this study revealed that the majority of commercial swine companies needs to improve biosecurity practice protocols to then target compartmentalization.

Not Just Pictures: Utility of Camera Trapping in the Context of African Swine Fever and Wild Boar Management

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting all suids and wild boar (Sus scrofa). Since 2007, ASF has spread to more than 30 countries in Europe and Asian regions, and the most recent outbreak has been in mainland Italy (reported on January 2022). When the genotype II of the ASF virus infects a population, a mortality rate close to 90% is usually reported. This drop in wild boar abundance produces a cascade effect in the entire ecosystem. In this context, effective monitoring tools for deriving management parameters are a priority aspect, and the utility of camera trapping could have been overlooked. Here, sampling the infected area in north Italy, we showed the utility of camera traps in the context of ASF infection. Specifically, we used 43 camera traps randomly distributed to (i) estimate movement parameters and population density of wild boar, roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and wolf (Canis lupus); (ii) quantify wild boar recruitment; and (iii) assess whether the human restriction rules are being met. On the first spring after the outbreak detection, our results for wild boar indicated a density of 0.27 ind·km−2 ± 0.11 (standard error, SE), a daily activity level of 0.49 ± 0.07 (i.e., 11.76 h·day−1), a daily distance travelled of 9.07 ± 1.80 km·day−1, a litter size of 1.72 piglets·group−1, and a 72% of pregnant females. Despite human outdoor activities being restricted in the infected zone, we recorded human presence in 19 camera traps. The wide range of parameters estimated from the camera trap data, together with some intrinsic and practical advantages of this tool, allows us to conclude that camera traps are well positioned to be a reference approach to monitor populations affected by ASF. The population-specific parameters are of prime importance for optimizing ASF control efforts.

Ecological niche modeling based on ensemble algorithms to predicting current and future potential distribution of African swine fever virus in China

African swine fever (ASF) is a tick-borne infectious disease initially described in Shenyang province China in 2018 but is now currently present nationwide. ASF has high infectivity and mortality rates, which often results in transportation and trade bans, and high expenses to prevent and control the, hence causing huge economic losses and a huge negative impact on the Chinese pig farming industry. Ecological niche modeling has long been adopted in the epidemiology of infectious diseases, in particular vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to establish an ecological niche model combined with data from ASF incidence rates in China from August 2018 to December 2021 in order to predict areas for African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in China. The model was developed in R software using the biomod2 package and ensemble modeling techniques. Environmental and topographic variables included were mean diurnal range (°C), isothermality, mean temperature of wettest quarter (°C), precipitation seasonality (cv), mean precipitation of warmest quarter(mm), mean precipitation of coldest quarter (mm), normalized difference vegetation index, wind speed (m/s), solar radiation (kJ /day), and elevation/altitude (m). Contribution rates of the variables normalized difference vegetation index, mean temperature of wettest quarter, mean precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean precipitation of warmest quarter were, respectively, 47.61%, 28.85%, 10.85%, and 7.27% (according to CA), which accounted for over 80% of contribution rates related to variables. According to model prediction, most of areas revealed as suitable for ASF distribution are located in the southeast coast or central region of China, wherein environmental conditions are suitable for soft ticks’ survival. In contrast, areas unsuitable for ASFV distribution in China are associated with arid climate and poor vegetation, which are less conducive to soft ticks’ survival, hence to ASFV transmission. In addition, prediction spatial suitability for future ASFV distribution suggests narrower areas for ASFV spread. Thus, the ensemble model designed herein could be used to conceive more efficient prevention and control measure against ASF according to different geographical locations in China.

Estimating the risk of environmental contamination by forest users in African Swine Fever endemic areas

Background

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly lethal viral disease caused by the African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV), the only virus of the Asfaviridae family, which affects different species of wild and domestic suids, and for which no vaccination or effective medical treatment is currently available. The virus can survive for long periods in the environment, and humans can unintentionally act as vectors through infected fomites, a risk that is linked to the ASF introduction into pig farms. We ran a simulation study, in which we reconstructed the probability process leading to the different forms of human-mediated ASF contamination in ASF endemic areas. We compared the infection risks related to different types of human forest activities and produced estimates of the minimum expected number of human-induced contamination events occurring annually at the scale of some European countries.

Results

When analysed on a short temporal scale and in a relatively small spatial context, ASF environmental contamination appeared as a rather unlikely event for most of the simulated forest uses, with contamination probabilities often lower than 0.1%. When scaling up the contamination process to a whole year and to large geographic areas, though, the accumulation of the same forest activities, repeated several times per month within the same patch of forest, produced the expectation that thousands of contamination events would occur each year, with potentially relevant epidemiological consequences. Wild boar supplemental feeding and forest logging emerged as the riskiest activities in terms of contamination probabilities, but risk was highly influenced by the frequency and intensity of the different types of forest use.

Conclusions

The risk of human-mediated ASF environmental contamination should not be disregarded when planning management actions to reduce ASF circulation and prevent its breach into the pig farming system. Supplemental feeding should be strongly reduced or avoided in ASF affected areas. Wild boar hunting, which is often employed as an active management tool in ASF affected areas, should be seen as both a tool for controlling wild boar density and as a potential risk for further contamination. It is essential to implement and enforce strict biosecurity measures for all forest-based human activities in ASF endemic areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13028-022-00636-z.

Experimental Evidence of the Long-Term Survival of Infective African Swine Fever Virus Strain Ba71V in Soil under Different Conditions

The survival of African swine fever virus (ASFV) on different matrices and its infectivity in wild as well as domestic swine is still a matter of interest. ASFV is resistant to environmental effects; this fact is enhanced by the presence of organic material. Therefore, the aim of this work was to determine the ability of laboratory ASFV to survive in soil at different temperatures (4 and 22 °C) and with and without the presence of blood using culture procedures. The suitability of the procedure for determining the viability and titre of the ASFV field strain by the hemadsorption method was also verified, when a higher decrease in virus infectivity in the case of clay compared with peat was demonstrated. The stability of the virus was clearly temperature-dependent, the infectious virus was detected after 112 days, and the viral DNA was still detected in the matrix 210 days after inoculation in a relatively high and stable concentration (between 10⁶ and 10⁷ genome equivalents/mL). Based on this knowledge, soil and other environmental samples could provide rapid and reliable information on the disease outbreak and serve as indicators of the risk posed by the affected locality.

Adenovirus-Vectored African Swine Fever Virus pp220 Induces Robust Antibody, IFN-γ, and CTL Responses in Pigs

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) poses a serious threat to the pork industry worldwide; however, there is no safe vaccine or treatment available. The development of an efficacious subunit vaccine will require the identification of protective antigens. The ASFV pp220 polyprotein is essential for virus structural integrity. This polyprotein is processed to generate p5, p34, p14, p37, and p150 individual proteins. Immunization of pigs with a cocktail of adenoviruses expressing the proteins induced significant IgG, IFN-γ-secreting cells, and cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses. Four predicted SLA-I binding nonamer peptides, namely p34161−169, p37859−867, p1501363−1371, and p1501463−1471, recalled strong IFN-γ+ PBMC and splenocyte responses. Notably, peptide p34161−169 was recognized by PBMCs isolated from 7/10 pigs and by splenocytes isolated from 8/10 pigs. Peptides p37859−867 and p1501363−1371 stimulated recall IFN-γ+ responses in PBMCs and splenocytes isolated from 8/10 pigs, whereas peptide p1501463−1471 recalled responses in PBMCs and splenocytes isolated from 7/10 to 9/10 pigs, respectively. The results demonstrate that the pp220 polyprotein contains multiple epitopes that induce robust immune responses in pigs. Importantly, these epitopes are 100% conserved among different ASFV genotypes and were predicted to bind multiple SLA-I alleles. The outcomes suggest that pp220 is a promising candidate for inclusion in a prototype subunit vaccine.

Quantifying risk factors and potential geographic extent of African swine fever across the world

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many countries in Africa, Europe and Asia in the past decades. However, the potential geographic extent of ASF infection is unknown. Here we combined a modeling framework with the assembled contemporary records of ASF cases and multiple covariates to predict the risk distribution of ASF at a global scale. Local spatial variations in ASF risk derived from domestic pigs is influenced strongly by livestock factors, while the risk of having ASF in wild boars is mainly associated with natural habitat covariates. The risk maps show that ASF is to be ubiquitous in many areas, with a higher risk in areas in the northern hemisphere. Nearly half of the world’s domestic pigs (1.388 billion) are in the high-risk zones. Our results provide a better understanding of the potential distribution beyond the current geographical scope of the disease.

Genome Plasticity of African Swine Fever Virus: Implications for Diagnostics and Live-Attenuated Vaccines

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious transboundary viral hemorrhagic disease of domestic and wild pigs presenting a significant threat to the global swine industry. Following its introduction in Caucasus, Georgia, in 2007, the genome of the genotype II of African swine fever virus (ASFV) strain Georgia-07 and its derivatives accumulated significant mutations, resulting in the emergence of genetic variants within short epidemiological timescales as it spreads and infects different hosts in diverse ecosystems, causing outbreaks in Europe, South Asia, South East Asia and the Caribbean. This suggests that ASFV, with a comparatively large and complex DNA genome, is susceptible to genetic mutations including deletions and that although the virus is environmentally stable, it is genetically unstable. This has implications for the development of vaccines and diagnostic tests for disease detection and surveillance. Analysis of the ASFV genome revealed recombination hotspots, which in double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) viruses represent key drivers of genetic diversity. The ability of pox virus, a dsDNA virus with a genome complexity similar to ASFV, regaining virulence following the deletion of a virulence gene via gene amplification, coupled with the recent emergence and spread of live-attenuated ASFV vaccine strains causing disease and death in pigs in China, raise legitimate concerns around the use of live-attenuated ASFV vaccines in non-endemic regions to control the potential introduction. Further research into the risk of using live-attenuated ASFV in non-endemic regions is highly needed.

Key risk factors and impact of African swine fever spreading on pig production in Serbia

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of domestic pigs and wild boars and currently represents a major threat to the swine industry worldwide. Disease control is impaired by a lack of an effective vaccine and currently, it is dependent on biosecurity measures in pig production, rapid diagnosis, and stamping out of infected herds. Consequently, this swine disease has considerable social-economic significance on national or even regional level. In 2019 for the first time ASF was detected in the domestic swine population (backyards) in the central region of Serbia. From then on, there have been continuous outbreaks of new cases in the population of domestic and wild boars. Considering domestic pig population, in the majority of cases, ASF was detected in small holdings and backyards. The biosecurity measures are not officially required by veterinary regulation and are only given in a form of recommendations. On the other hand, it is not always possible to implement biosecurity measures that are recognized today as essential for sustainable pig production in the old type of industrial pig facilities. Nowadays, in 2021, it became obvious that the domestic pig cycle, human activities involving pigs, or pig-derived meat products are the dominant driver of virus transmission. Additionally, human activities are frequently a risky connection between domestic pigs and wild boars both directly or indirectly. Traditional, culture-related aspects and facts that politicians failed to recognise ASF as a serious issue that causes great economical losses were found to be very important obstacles in disease control.

Comparison of the Proteomes of Porcine Macrophages and a Stable Porcine Cell Line after Infection with African Swine Fever Virus

African swine fever virus (ASFV), causing an OIE-notifiable viral disease of swine, is spreading over the Eurasian continent and threatening the global pig industry. Here, we conducted the first proteome analysis of ASFV-infected primary porcine monocyte-derived macrophages (moMΦ). In parallel to moMΦ isolated from different pigs, the stable porcine cell line WSL-R was infected with a recombinant of ASFV genotype IX strain “Kenya1033”. The outcome of the infections was compared via quantitative mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteome analysis. Major differences with respect to the expression of viral proteins or the host cell response were not observed. However, cell-specific expression of some individual viral proteins did occur. The observed modulations of the host proteome were mainly related to cell characteristics and function. Overall, we conclude that both infection models are suitable for use in the study of ASFV infection in vitro.

The Efficacy of Disinfection on Modified Vaccinia Ankara and African Swine Fever Virus in Various Forest Soil Types

African swine fever (ASF) has become a global threat to the pig industry and wild suids. Within Europe, including Germany, affected wild boar populations play a major role. Fencing and carcass removal in combination with the reduction in environmental contamination are key to control further spread. The handling of the ASF virus (ASFV) is restricted to high-containment conditions in Germany. According to the regulation of the German Veterinarian Society (DVG), modified vaccinia Ankara virus (MVAV) is the virus of choice to determine the efficacy of disinfection for enveloped viruses. The aim of this study was to use the MVAV as a guide to select the best possible disinfectant solution and concentration for the inactivation of ASFV in soil. Both viruses were tested simultaneously. In this study, two layers (top and mineral soil) of soil types from six different locations in Saxony, Germany, were collected. The tenacity of ASFV and MVAV were tested at various time points (0.5 to 72 h). The capabilities of different concentrations of peracetic acid and citric acid (approx. 0.1 to 2%) to inactivate the viruses in the selected soil types with spiked high protein load were examined under appropriate containment conditions. Around 2-3 Log10 (TCID50) levels of reduction in the infectivity of both ASFV and MVAV were observed in all soil types starting after two hours. For MVAV, a 4 Log10 loss was recorded after 72 h. A total of 0.1% of peracetic acid (5 L/m2) was sufficient to inactivate the viruses. A 4 log10 reduction in the infectivity of MVAV was noticed by applying 1% citric acid, while a 2 log10 decline was recorded with ASFV. In conclusion, comparing MVAV to ASFV for efficacy screening of disinfectant solutions has revealed many similarities. Peracetic acid reduced the infectivity of both viruses independently of the soil type and the existence of a high organic soiling.

A Review of Environmental Risk Factors for African Swine Fever in European Wild Boar

A detailed understanding of environmental risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar will be not only essential for risk assessments but also for timely and spatially informed allocation of resources in order to manage wild boar-targeted ASF control measures efficiently. Here, we review currently known environmental risk factors that can influence the occurrence of ASF virus infection in wild boar when compared to disease occurrence in wild boar of a non-exposed reference scenario. Accordingly, the exposure of wild boar to environmental risk factors related to (1) climate, (2) land cover, (3) human activity, (4) wild boar and (5) ASF were evaluated. As key environmental risk factors in this review, increased ASF occurrence in wild boar was associated with seasonal patterns, forest coverage, presence of water, human presence, farming activities, wild boar density and ASF nearness. The review highlights inconsistencies in some of these risk factor associations with disease detection in space and time and may provide valuable insights for the investigation of ASF transmission dynamics. The examined risk information was applied to consider potential improvements of the ASF control strategy in wild boar regarding disease surveillance, hunting, wild boar carcass searches and ASF barrier implementation.

Disinfection to control African swine fever virus: a UK perspective

A review of African swine fever (ASF) was conducted, including manifestations of disease, its transmission and environmental persistence of ASF virus. Findings on infectious doses of contemporary highly-pathogenic strains isolated from outbreaks in Eastern Europe were included. Published data on disinfectant susceptibility of ASF virus were then compared with similar findings for selected other infectious agents, principally those used in the UK disinfectant approvals tests relating to relevant Disease Orders for the control of notifiable and zoonotic diseases of livestock. These are: swine vesicular disease virus, foot and mouth disease virus, Newcastle disease virus and Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis. The comparative data thus obtained, presented in a series of charts, facilitated estimates of efficacy against ASF virus for some UK approved disinfectants when applied at their respective General Orders concentrations. Substantial data gaps were encountered for several disinfectant agents or classes, including peracetic acid, quaternary ammonium compounds and products based on phenols and cresols.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe-A Review

The introduction of genotype II African swine fever (ASF) virus, presumably from Africa into Georgia in 2007, and its continuous spread through Europe and Asia as a panzootic disease of suids, continues to have a huge socio-economic impact. ASF is characterized by hemorrhagic fever leading to a high case/fatality ratio in pigs. In Europe, wild boar are especially affected. This review summarizes the currently available knowledge on ASF in wild boar in Europe. The current ASF panzootic is characterized by self-sustaining cycles of infection in the wild boar population. Spill-over and spill-back events occur from wild boar to domestic pigs and vice versa. The social structure of wild boar populations and the spatial behavior of the animals, a variety of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission mechanisms and persistence in the environment complicate the modeling of the disease. Control measures focus on the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses, in which ASFV can remain infectious for months. Further measures include the reduction in wild boar density and the limitation of wild boar movements through fences. Using these measures, the Czech Republic and Belgium succeeded in eliminating ASF in their territories, while the disease spread in others. So far, no vaccine is available to protect wild boar or domestic pigs reliably against ASF.

Identification of African swine fever virus genomic DNAs in wild boar habitats within outbreak regions in South Korea

An African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in wild boars was first reported on October 2, 2019, in South Korea. Since then, additional cases were reported in South Korea's border areas. We here report the identification of ASF virus (ASFV) DNAs from two out of eight environmental abiotic matter samples collected from areas where ASF-positive wild boar carcasses were found. Comparative genomic investigations suggested that the contaminating ASFV DNAs originated from the wild boar whose carcass had been found near the positive sample sites. This is the first report on the identification of ASF viral material in wild boar habitats.

African swine fever endemic persistence in wild boar populations: Key mechanisms explored through modelling

African swine fever (ASF) is a serious global concern from an ecological and economic point of view. While it is well established that its main transmission routes comprise contact between infected and susceptible animals and transmission through contaminated carcasses, the specific mechanism leading to its long‐term persistence is still not clear. Among others, a proposed mechanism involves the potential role of convalescent individuals, which would be able to shed the virus after the end of the acute infection. Using a spatially explicit, stochastic, individual‐based model, we tested: (1) if ASF can persist when transmission occurs only through infected wild boars and infected carcasses; (2) if the animals that survive ASF can play a relevant role in increasing ASF persistence chances; (3) how hunting pressure can affect the ASF probability to persist. The scenario in which only direct and carcass‐mediated transmission were contemplated had 52% probability of virus persistence 10 years after the initial outbreak. The inclusion of survivor‐mediated transmission corresponded to slightly higher persistence probabilities (57%). ASF prevalence during the endemic phase was generally low, ranging 0.1–0.2%. The proportion of seropositive individuals gradually decreased with time and ranged 4.5–6.6%. Our results indicate that direct and carcass‐mediated infection routes are sufficient to explain and justify the long‐term persistence of ASF at low wild boar density and the ongoing geographic expansion of the disease front in the European continent. During the initial years of an ASF outbreak, hunting should be carefully evaluated as a management tool, in terms of potential benefits and negative side‐effects, and combined with an intensive effort for the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses. During the endemic phase, further increasing hunting effort should not be considered as an effective strategy. Additional effort should be dedicated to finding and removing as many wild boar carcasses as possible.

New perspectives for evaluating relative risks of African swine fever virus contamination in global feed ingredient supply chains

There are no published reports indicating that the African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been detected in feed ingredients or complete feed. This is primarily because there are only a few laboratories in the world that have the biosecurity and analytical capabilities of detecting ASFV in feed. Several in vitro studies have been conducted to evaluate ASFV concentration, viability and inactivation when ASFV was added to various feed ingredients and complete feed. These inoculation studies have shown that some feed matrices support virus survival longer than others and the reasons for this are unknown. Current analytical methodologies have significant limitations in sensitivity, repeatability, ability to detect viable virus particles and association with infectivity. As a result, interpretation of findings using various measures may lead to misleading conclusions. Because of analytical and technical challenges, as well as the lack of ASFV contamination data in feed supply chains, quantitative risk assessments have not been conducted. A few qualitative risk assessments have been conducted, but they have not considered differences in potential scenarios for ASFV contamination between various types of feed ingredient supply chains. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to provide a more holistic understanding of the relative potential risks of ASFV contamination in various global feed ingredient supply chains and provide recommendations for addressing the challenges identified.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.