Assessment of IMERG Precipitation Estimates over Europe

Can IMERG QPE product capture the heavy rain on urban flood scale?

Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to sudden flooding disasters caused by intense rainfall and high imperviousness degree, resulting in great economic losses and human casualties. Interactions between rainfall data and urban catchment characteristics highlight the urgent need of accurate and effective precipitation data to apply in reliable hydrological simulations. However, it remains a challenge to obtain accurate rainfall datasets on such small scales in urban areas. As satellite remote sensing is the only method that can achieve global observation, it is important to evaluate satellite precipitation products in their ability to accurately capture intense precipitation on urban flood scales. This study evaluates the performance of the latest version 06B (V06B) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) in North China Plain, with using the Radar-Gauge merged precipitation estimates as reference data. First, it could be concluded that IMERG fails to accurately estimate precipitation in the whole study area, having the problem of overestimating light precipitation and underestimating heavy precipitation. Second, results show that IMERG has poor ability to capture heavy precipitation on small scales, with the percentage of Hit nearly 0 and the percentage of Miss higher than 40 % for all the precipitation cases. Third, with the expansion of heavy precipitation centers' coverage, the problem of IMERG not to detect heavy precipitation gets mitigated, with the percentage of Miss decreasing by 14 % (19 %). However, the ability to capture both spatial location and precipitation intensity is still not good, the percentage of Hit ranging from 0.05 % to 7 %, without obvious improvement. When IMERG is able to capture the center of strong precipitation, it also tends to overestimate the weak precipitation around the center of strong precipitation. Results of this study provide an improved understanding of how well the V06B IMERG products capture the heavy precipitation center at small scales in urban areas, which will be useful for both developers and users of IMERG.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating monthly global rainfall erosivity

Modeling monthly rainfall erosivity is vital to the optimization of measures to control soil erosion. Rain gauge data combined with satellite observations can aid in enhancing rainfall erosivity estimations. Here, we presented a framework which utilized Geographically Weighted Regression approach to model global monthly rainfall erosivity. The framework integrates long-term (2001-2020) mean annual rainfall erosivity estimates from IMERG (Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) with station data from GloREDa (Global Rainfall Erosivity Database, n = 3,286 stations). The merged mean annual rainfall erosivity was disaggregated into mean monthly values based on monthly rainfall erosivity fractions derived from the original IMERG data. Global mean monthly rainfall erosivity was distinctly seasonal; erosivity peaked at ~ 200 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 month-1 in June-August over the Northern Hemisphere and ~ 700 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 month-1 in December-February over the Southern Hemisphere, contributing to over 60% of the annual rainfall erosivity over large areas in each hemisphere. Rainfall erosivity was ~ 4 times higher during the most erosive months than the least erosive months (December-February and June-August in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, respectively). The latitudinal distributions of monthly and seasonal rainfall erosivity were highly heterogeneous, with the tropics showing the greatest erosivity. The intra-annual variability of monthly rainfall erosivity was particularly high within 10-30° latitude in both hemispheres. The monthly rainfall erosivity maps can be used for improving spatiotemporal modeling of soil erosion and planning of soil conservation measures.

Dynamical-statistical seasonal forecasts of winter and summer precipitation for the Island of Ireland

Seasonal precipitation forecasting is highly challenging for the northwest fringes of Europe due to complex dynamical drivers. Hybrid dynamical-statistical approaches offer potential to improve forecast skill. Here, hindcasts of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) from two dynamical systems (GloSea5 and SEAS5) are used to derive two distinct sets of indices for forecasting winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) precipitation over lead-times of 1-4 months. These indices provide predictors of seasonal precipitation via a multiple linear regression model (MLR) and an artificial neural network (ANN) applied to four Irish rainfall regions and the Island of Ireland. Forecast skill for each model, lead time, and region was evaluated using the correlation coefficient (r) and mean absolute error (MAE), benchmarked against (a) climatology, (b) bias corrected precipitation hindcasts from both GloSea5 and SEAS5, and (c) a zero-order forecast based on rainfall persistence. The MLR and ANN models produced skilful precipitation forecasts with leads of up to 4 months. In all tests, our hybrid method based on MSLP indices outperformed the three benchmarks (i.e., climatology, bias corrected, and persistence). With correlation coefficients ranging between 0.38 and 0.81 in winter, and between 0.24 and 0.78 in summer, the ANN model outperformed MLR in both seasons in most regions and lead-times. Forecast skill for summer was comparable to that in winter and for some regions/lead times even superior. Our results also show that climatology and persistence performed better than direct use of bias corrected dynamical outputs in most regions and lead-times in terms of MAE. We conclude that the hybrid dynamical-statistical approach developed here-by leveraging useful information about MSLP from dynamical systems-enables more skilful seasonal precipitation forecasts for Ireland, and possibly other locations in western Europe, in both winter and summer.

Can GPM IMERG Capture Extreme Precipitation in North China Plain?

Extreme precipitation events (EPE) often cause catastrophic floods accompanied by serious economic losses and casualties. The latest version (V06) of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) provides global satellite precipitation data from 2000 at a higher spatiotemporal resolution with improved quality. It is scientifically and practically important to assess the accuracy of the IMERG V06 in capturing extreme precipitation. This study evaluates the two widely used products of IMERG during 2000–2018, i.e., IMERG late run (IMERG-L) and IMERG final run (IMERG-F), in the densely populated and flood-prone North China Plain. The accuracy of the IMERG V06 is evaluated with ground measurements from rain gauge stations at multiple scales (hourly, daily, and seasonally). A novel target tracking method is introduced to extract three-dimensional (3D) extreme precipitation events, and the near-real-time uncalibrated PERSIANN-CCS (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Cloud Classification System) and GSMAP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation) satellite data are added to further evaluate IMERG’s performance during extreme precipitation. Finally, for flash flood events induced by extreme rainfall in the Hebei Province from 15 to 23 July 2016, the accuracy of capturing the event with IMERG-F and IMERG-L was verified. Results reveal that IMERG-F is better than IMERG-L at all investigated scales (hourly, daily, and seasonally), but the difference between the two products is less at higher time resolutions. Both products manifest decreased performance when capturing 3D extreme precipitation events, and comparatively, IMERG-F performs better than IMERG-L. IMERG-F exhibits a distinct discontinuity in extreme precipitation thresholds between land and ocean, which is a limitation of IMERG-F not documented in previous studies. Moreover, IMERG-L and IMERG-F are comparable at an hourly scale for some metrics, which is beyond the expectation that IMERG-F is notably better than IMERG-L. This study provides a scientific basis for the performance of satellite precipitation products and contributes to guiding users when applying global precipitation products.

A Novel Approach to Validate Satellite Snowfall Retrievals by Ground-Based Point Measurements

A novel method has been proposed for validating satellite radar snowfall retrievals using surface station observations over the western United States mountainous region, where the mean snowfall rate at a station depends on its elevation. First, all station data within a 1° × 1° grid are used to develop a snowfall rate versus elevation relation. This relation is then used to compute snowfall rate in other locations within the 1° × 1° grid, as if surface observations were available everywhere in the grid. Grid mean snowfall rates are then derived, which should be more representative to the mean snowfall rate of the grid than using data at any one station or from a simple mean of all stations in the grid. Comparison of the so-derived grid mean snowfall rates with CloudSat retrievals shows that the CloudSat product underestimates snowfall by about 65% when averaged over all the 768 grids in the western United States mountainous regions. The bias does not seem to have clear dependency on elevation but strongly depends on snowfall rate. As an application of the method, we further estimated the snowfall to precipitation ratio using both ground and satellite measured data. It is found that the rates of increase with elevation of the snowfall to precipitation ratio are quite similar when calculating from ground and satellite data, being about 25% per kilometer elevation up or approximately 4% per every degree Cuisses of temperature drop.

Comparison of Data from Rain Gauges and the IMERG Product to Analyse Precipitation in Mountain Areas of Central Italy

In central Italy, particularly in the Umbria-Marche Apennines, there are some complete, high-altitude weather stations, which are very important for assessing the climate in these areas. The mountain weather stations considered in this study were Monte Bove Sud (1917 m.a.s.l.), Monte Prata (1816 m.a.s.l.) and Pintura di Bolognola (1360 m.a.s.l.). The aim of this research was to compare the differences between the precipitation measured by the rain gauges and the data obtained by satellite using the IMERG algorithm, at the same locations. The evaluation of possible errors in the estimation of precipitation using one method or the other is fundamental for obtaining a reliable estimate of precipitation in mountain environments. The results revealed a strong underestimation of precipitation for the rain gauges at higher altitudes (Monte Bove Sud and Monte Prata) compared to the same pixel sampled by satellite. On the other hand, at lower altitudes, there was a better correlation between the rain gauge value and the IMERG product value. This research, although localised in well-defined locations, could help to assess the problems in rain detection through mountain weather stations.

Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction in the Nera River Basin (Central Italy): New Insights after the 2016 Seismic Sequence

The highest part of the Nera River basin (Central Italy) hosts significant water resources for drinking, hydroelectric, and aquaculture purposes. The river is fed by fractured large carbonate aquifers interconnected by Jurassic and Quaternary normal faults in an area characterized by high seismicity. The 30 October 2016, seismic sequence in Central Italy produced an abrupt increase in river discharge, which lasted for several months. The analysis of the recession curves well documented the processes occurring within the basal aquifer feeding the Nera River. In detail, a straight line has described the river discharge during the two years after the 2016 seismic sequence, indicating that a turbulent flow characterized the emptying process of the hydrogeological system. A permeability enhancement of the aquifer feeding the Nera River—due to cleaning of fractures and the co-seismic fracturing in the recharge area—coupled with an increase in groundwater flow velocity can explain this process. The most recent recession curves (2019 and 2020 periods) fit very well with the pre-seismic ones, indicating that after two years from the mainshock, the recession process recovered to the same pre-earthquake conditions (laminar flow). This behavior makes the hydrogeological system less vulnerable to prolonged droughts, the frequency and length of which are increasingly affecting the Apennine area of Central Italy.

Performance of the IMERG Precipitation Products over High-latitudes Region of Finland

Highly accurate and real-time estimation of precipitation over large areas remains a fundamental challenge for the hydrological and meteorological community. This is primarily attributed to the high heterogeneity of precipitation across temporal and spatial scales. Rapid developments in remote sensing technologies have made the quantitative measurement of precipitation by satellite sensors a significant data source. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission makes precipitation data with high temporal and spatial resolutions available to different users. The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) V06 (Early, Late, and Final) satellite precipitation products (SPPs) at high latitudes. Ground-based observation data across Finland were used as a reference and compared with IMERG data from 2014 to 2019. Three aspects were evaluated: the spatial coverage of the satellite estimates over Finland; the accuracy of the satellite estimates at various temporal scales (half-hourly, daily, and monthly); and the variation in the performance of SPPs over different spatial regions. The results showed that IMERG SPPs can be used with high confidence over Southern, Eastern, and Western Finland. These SPPs can be used with caution over the region of the historical province of Oulu but are not recommended for higher latitudes over Lapland. In general, the IMERG-Final SPP performed the best, and it is recommended for use because of its low number of errors and high correlation with ground observation. Furthermore, this SPP can be used to complement or substitute ground precipitation measurements in ungauged and poorly gauged regions in Southern Finland.

Ambiguous Agricultural Drought: Characterising Soil Moisture and Vegetation Droughts in Europe from Earth Observation

Long-lasting precipitation deficits or heat waves can induce agricultural droughts, which are generally defined as soil moisture deficits that are severe enough to negatively impact vegetation. However, during short soil moisture drought events, the vegetation is not always negatively affected and sometimes even thrives. Due to this duality in agricultural drought impacts, the term “agricultural drought” is ambiguous. Using the ESA’s remotely sensed CCI surface soil moisture estimates and MODIS NDVI vegetation greenness data, we show that, in major European droughts over the past two decades, asynchronies and discrepancies occurred between the surface soil moisture and vegetation droughts. A clear delay is visible between the onset of soil moisture drought and vegetation drought, with correlations generally peaking at the end of the growing season. At lower latitudes, correlations peaked earlier in the season, likely due to an earlier onset of water limited conditions. In certain cases, the vegetation showed a positive anomaly, even during soil moisture drought events. As a result, using the term agricultural drought instead of soil moisture or vegetation drought, could lead to the misclassification of drought events and false drought alarms. We argue that soil moisture and vegetation drought should be considered separately.

Evaluating the Latest IMERG Products in a Subtropical Climate: The Case of Paraná State, Brazil

The lack of measurement of precipitation in large areas using fine-resolution data is a limitation in water management, particularly in developing countries. However, Version 6 of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) has provided a new source of precipitation information with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, the performance of the GPM products (Final run) in the state of Paraná, located in the southern region of Brazil, from June 2000 to December 2018 was evaluated. The daily and monthly products of IMERG were compared to the gauge data spatially distributed across the study area. Quantitative and qualitative metrics were used to analyze the performance of IMERG products to detect precipitation events and anomalies. In general, the products performed positively in the estimation of monthly rainfall events, both in volume and spatial distribution, and demonstrated limited performance for daily events and anomalies, mainly in mountainous regions (coast and southwest). This may be related to the orographic rainfall in these regions, associating the intensity of the rain, and the topography. IMERG products can be considered as a source of precipitation data, especially on a monthly scale. Product calibrations are suggested for use on a daily scale and for time-series analysis.

Capability of IMERG V6 Early, Late, and Final Precipitation Products for Monitoring Extreme Precipitation Events

The monitoring of extreme precipitation events is an important task in environmental research, but the ability of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) precipitation products to monitor extreme precipitation events remains poorly understood. In this study, three precipitation products for IMERG version 6, early-, late-, and final-run products (IMERG-E, IMERG-L, and IMERG-F, respectively), were used to capture extreme precipitation, and their applicability to monitor extreme precipitation events over Hubei province in China was evaluated. We found that the accuracy of the three IMERG precipitation products is inconsistent in areas of complex and less complex topography. Compared with gauge-based precipitation data, the results reveal the following: (1) All products can accurately capture the spatiotemporal variation patterns in precipitation during extreme precipitation events. (2) The ability of IMERG-F was good in areas of complex topography, followed by IMERG-E and IMERG-L. In areas of less complex topography, IMERG-E and IMERG-L produced outcomes that were consistent with those of IMERG-F. (3) The three IMERG precipitation products can capture the actual hourly precipitation tendencies of extreme precipitation events. (4) In areas of complex topography, the rainfall intensity estimation ability of IMERG-F is better than those of IMERG-E and IMERG-L.

Impact of Lightning Data Assimilation on the Short-Term Precipitation Forecast over the Central Mediterranean Sea

Lightning data assimilation (LDA) is a powerful tool to improve the weather forecast of convective events and has been widely applied with this purpose in the past two decades. Most of these applications refer to events hitting coastal and land areas, where people live. However, a weather forecast over the sea has many important practical applications, and this paper focuses on the impact of LDA on the precipitation forecast over the central Mediterranean Sea around Italy. The 3 h rapid update cycle (RUC) configuration of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model) has been used to simulate the whole month of November 2019. Two sets of forecasts have been considered: CTRL, without lightning data assimilation, and LIGHT, which assimilates data from the LIghtning detection NETwork (LINET). The 3 h precipitation forecast has been compared with observations of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) (IMERG) dataset and with rain gauge observations recorded in six small Italian islands. The comparison of CTRL and LIGHT precipitation forecasts with the IMERG dataset shows a positive impact of LDA. The correlation between predicted and observed precipitation improves over wide areas of the Ionian and Adriatic Seas when LDA is applied. Specifically, the correlation coefficient for the whole domain increases from 0.59 to 0.67, and the anomaly correlation (AC) improves by 5% over land and by 8% over the sea when lightning is assimilated. The impact of LDA on the 3 h precipitation forecast over six small islands is also positive. LDA improves the forecast by both decreasing the false alarms and increasing the hits of the precipitation forecast, although with variability among the islands. The case study of 12 November 2019 (time interval 00–03 UTC) has been used to show how important the impact of LDA can be in practice. In particular, the shifting of the main precipitation pattern from land to the sea caused by LDA gives a much better representation of the precipitation field observed by the IMERG precipitation product.

Impact of Topography and Rainfall Intensity on the Accuracy of IMERG Precipitation Estimates in an Arid Region

The influence of topographical characteristics and rainfall intensity on the accuracy of satellite precipitation estimates is of importance to the adoption of satellite data for hydrological applications. This study evaluates the three GPM IMERG V05B products over the arid country of Saudi Arabia. Statistical indices quantifying the performance of IMERG products were calculated under three evaluation techniques: seasonal-based, topographical, and rainfall intensity-based. Results indicated that IMERG products have the capability to detect seasons with the highest precipitation values (spring) and seasons with the lowest precipitation (summer). Moreover, results showed that IMERG products performed well under various rainfall intensities, particularly under light rain, which is the most common rainfall in arid regions. Furthermore, IMERG products exhibited high detection accuracy over moderate elevations, whereas it had poor performance over coastal and mountainous regions. Overall, the results confirmed that the performance of the final-run product surpassed the near-real-time products in terms of consistency and errors. IMERG products can improve temporal resolution and play a significant role in filling data gaps in poorly gauged regions. However, due to the errors in IMERG products, it is recommended to use sub-daily rain gauge data in satellite calibration for better rainfall estimation over arid and semiarid regions.

Extreme Events of Precipitation over Complex Terrain Derived from Satellite Data for Climate Applications: An Evaluation of the Southern Slopes of the Pyrenees

Estimating extreme precipitation events over complex terrain is challenging but crucial for evaluating the performance of climate models for the present climate and expected changes of the climate in the future. New satellites operating in the microwave wavelengths have started to open new opportunities for performing such estimation at adequate temporal and spatial scales and within sensible error limits. This paper illustrates the feasibility and limits of estimating precipitation extremes from satellite data for climatological applications. Using a high-resolution gauge database as ground truth, it was found that global precipitation measurement (GPM) constellation data can provide valuable estimates of extreme precipitation over the southern slopes of the Pyrenees, a region comprising several climates and a very diverse terrain (a challenge for satellite precipitation algorithms). Validation using an object-based quality measure showed reasonable performance, suggesting that GPM estimates can be advantageous reference data for climate model evaluation.

A Preliminary Assessment of the Gauge-Adjusted Near-Real-Time GSMaP Precipitation Estimate over Mainland China

The near-real-time satellite-derived precipitation estimates are attractive for a wide range of applications like extreme precipitation monitoring and natural hazard warning. Recently, a gauge-adjusted near-real-time GSMaP precipitation estimate (GSMaP_Gauge_NRT) was produced to improve the quality of the original GSMaP_NRT. In this study, efforts were taken to investigate and validate the performance of the GSMaP_Gauge_NRT using gauge observations over Mainland China. The analyses indicated that GSMaP_NRT generally overestimated the gauge precipitation in China. After calibration, the GSMaP_Gauge_NRT effectively reduced this bias and was more consistent with gauge observations. Results also showed that the correction scheme of GSMaP_Gauge_NRT mainly acted on hit events and could hardly make up the miss events of the satellite precipitation estimates. Finally, we extended the evaluation to the global scale for a broader view of GSMaP_Gauge_NRT. The global comparisons exhibited that the GSMaP_Gauge_NRT was in good agreement with the GSMaP_Gauge product. In conclusion, the GSMaP_Gauge_NRT had better performance than the GSMaP_NRT and was a more reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation product.