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Pinto T, Sillero N, Mira A, Santos SM. Using the dead to infer about the living: Amphibian roadkill spatiotemporal dynamics suggest local populations' reduction. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 927:172356. [PMID: 38614338 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Revised: 03/08/2024] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/15/2024]
Abstract
Roads represent one of the main sources of wildlife mortality, population decline, and isolation, especially for low-vagility animal groups. It is still not clearly understood how wildlife populations respond to these negative effects over space and time. Most studies on wildlife road mortality do not consider the spatial and temporal components simultaneously, or the imperfect roadkill detection, both of which could lead to inaccurate assumptions and unreliable mitigation actions. In this study, we applied a multi-season occupancy model to a 14-year amphibian mortality dataset collected along 120 km of roads, combined with freely available landscape and remote sensing metrics, to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of amphibian roadkill in a Mediterranean landscape in Southern Portugal. Our models showed an explicit general decrease in amphibian roadkill. The Iberian painted frog (Discoglossus galganoi) experienced roadkill declines over time of ∼70 %, while the spiny common toad (Bufo spinosus) and the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) had a loss of nearly 50 %, and the Southern marbled newt (Triturus pygmaeus) had 40 %. Despite the decreasing trend in roadkill, spatial patterns seem to be rather stable from year to year. Multi-season occupancy models, when combined with relevant landscape and remote sensing predictors, as well as long-term monitoring data, can describe dynamic changes in roadkill over space and time. These patterns are valuable tools for understanding roadkill patterns and drivers in Mediterranean landscapes, enabling the differentiation of road sections with varying roadkill over time. Ultimately, this information may contribute to the development of effective conservation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiago Pinto
- MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554 Évora, Portugal; Conservation Biology Lab (UBC), University of Évora, Mitra, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal.
| | - Neftalí Sillero
- Centre for Research in Geo-Spatial Sciences (CICGE), University of Porto, Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal
| | - António Mira
- MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554 Évora, Portugal; Conservation Biology Lab (UBC), University of Évora, Mitra, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal
| | - Sara M Santos
- MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554 Évora, Portugal; Conservation Biology Lab (UBC), University of Évora, Mitra, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal
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Oliveira A, Medinas D, Craveiro J, Milhinhas C, Sabino-Marques H, Mendes T, Spadoni G, Oliveira A, Guilherme Sousa L, Tapisso JT, Santos S, Lopes-Fernandes M, da Luz Mathias M, Mira A, Pita R. Large-scale grid-based detection in occupancy surveys of a threatened small mammal: A comparison of two non-invasive methods. J Nat Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/18/2023]
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From species detection to population size indexing: the use of sign surveys for monitoring a rare and otherwise elusive small mammal. EUR J WILDLIFE RES 2023. [DOI: 10.1007/s10344-022-01634-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
AbstractMonitoring the occupancy and abundance of wildlife populations is key to evaluate their conservation status and trends. However, estimating these parameters often involves time and resource-intensive techniques, which are logistically challenging or even unfeasible for rare and elusive species that occur patchily and in small numbers. Hence, surveys based on field identification of signs (e.g. faeces, footprints) have long been considered a cost-effective alternative in wildlife monitoring, provided they produce reliable detectability and meaningful indices of population abundance. We tested the use of sign surveys for monitoring rare and otherwise elusive small mammals, focusing on the Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae) in Portugal. We asked how sampling intensity affects true positive detection of the species, and whether sign abundance is related to population size. We surveyed Cabrera voles’ latrines in 20 habitat patches known to be occupied, and estimated ‘true’ population size at each patch using DNA-based capture-recapture techniques. We found that a searching rate of ca. 3 min/250m2 of habitat based on adaptive guided transects was sufficient to provide true positive detection probabilities > 0.85. Sign-based abundance indices were at best moderately correlated with estimates of ‘true’ population size, and even so only for searching rates > 12 min/250m2. Our study suggests that surveys based on field identification of signs should provide a reliable option to estimate occupancy of Cabrera voles, and possibly for other rare or elusive small mammals, but cautions should be exercised when using this approach to infer population size. In case of practical constraints to the use of more accurate methods, a considerable sampling intensity is needed to reliably index Cabrera voles’ abundance from sign surveys.
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Behroozian M, Peterson AT, Joharchi MR, Atauchi PJ, Memariani F, Arjmandi AA. Good news for a rare plant: Fine‐resolution distributional predictions and field testing for the critically endangered plant
Dianthus pseudocrinitus
. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Maryam Behroozian
- Department of Botany, Research Center for Plant Science Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad Iran
| | | | - Mohammad Reza Joharchi
- Department of Botany, Research Center for Plant Science Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad Iran
| | - P. Joser Atauchi
- Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas Lawrence Kansas USA
- Instituto para la Conservación de Especies Amenazadas Cusco Peru
- Museo de Historia Natural Cusco (MHNC), Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco Cusco Peru
| | - Farshid Memariani
- Department of Botany, Research Center for Plant Science Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad Iran
| | - Ali Asghar Arjmandi
- Quantitative Plant Ecology and Biodiversity Research Laboratory, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad Iran
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Plaza J, Sánchez N, García‐Ariza C, Pérez‐Sánchez R, Charfolé F, Caminero‐Saldaña C. Classification of airborne multispectral imagery to quantify common vole impacts on an agricultural field. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2022; 78:2316-2323. [PMID: 35243753 PMCID: PMC9313580 DOI: 10.1002/ps.6857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Revised: 02/08/2022] [Accepted: 03/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The common vole (Microtus arvalis) is a very destructive agricultural pest. Particularly in Europe, its monitoring is essential not only for adequate management and outbreak forecasting, but also for accurately determining the vole's impact on affected fields. In this study, several alternatives for estimating the damage to alfalfa fields by voles through unmanned vehicle systems (UASs) and multispectral cameras are presented. Currently, both the farmers and agencies involved in the integrated pest management (IPM) programs of voles do not have sufficiently precise methods for accurate assessments of the real impact to crops. RESULTS Overall, the four multispectral classification methods presented showed similar performances. However, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based segmentation exhibited the most accurate and reliable appraisal of the affected areas. Nevertheless, it must be noted that the simplest method, which was based on an automatic classification, provided results similar to those obtained by more complex methods. In addition, a significant direct relationship was found between the number of active burrows and damage to the alfalfa canopy. CONCLUSION Unmanned vehicle systems, combined with multispectral imagery classification, are an effective and easily transferable methodology for the assessment and monitoring of common vole damage to agricultural plots. This combination of methods facilitates decision-making processes for IPM control strategies against this pest. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Javier Plaza
- Plant Production Group. Faculty of Environmental and Agricultural SciencesUniversity of SalamancaSalamancaSpain
| | - Nilda Sánchez
- Plant Production Group. Faculty of Environmental and Agricultural SciencesUniversity of SalamancaSalamancaSpain
- Department of Cartographic and Land EngineeringUniversity of SalamancaÁvilaSpain
| | - Carmen García‐Ariza
- Pest Area. Technological Agricultural Institute of Castilla y León (ITACyL)ValladolidSpain
| | - Rodrigo Pérez‐Sánchez
- Plant Production Group. Faculty of Environmental and Agricultural SciencesUniversity of SalamancaSalamancaSpain
| | - Francisco Charfolé
- Department of Cartographic and Land EngineeringUniversity of SalamancaÁvilaSpain
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Using Remote Sensing Data and Species–Environmental Matching Model to Predict the Potential Distribution of Grassland Rodents in the Northern China. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14092168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
An increase in grassland rodent pests in China has seriously affected grassland ecological environments and the development of husbandry. Here, we used remote sensing data and a species–environmental matching model to predict the potential spatial distribution of the five major rodent pest species (Microtus, Citellus, Myospalax, Meriones, Ochotona) in northern China, and examined how the predicted suitability of the area depends on environmental variables. The results were consistent and significant, better than random, and close to optimal. Meriones and Microtus had the largest areas of High Suitability and Moderate Suitability with regard to environmental conditions. The combination analysis of areas of Moderate Suitability and High Suitability showed that for 66% of the total area, conditions were suitable for just one rodent species, while conditions suitable for two and three kinds of rodents accounted for 31% and 3%, respectively. Altitude, land surface temperature in winter (November, December, February) and summer (May, June, July), vegetation cover in summer (July, August), and precipitation from spring to summer (April, May, June) determined the spatial distribution of grassland rodents. Our findings provide a powerful and useful methodological tool for tracking the five major rodent pest species in northern China and for future management measures to ensure grassland ecological environment security.
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Santos S, Grilo C, Shilling F, Bhardwaj M, Papp CR. Ecological Solutions for Linear Infrastructure Networks: The key to green infrastructure development. NATURE CONSERVATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.47.81795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
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8
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Fernandes N, Ferreira EM, Pita R, Mira A, Santos SM. The effect of habitat reduction by roads on space use and movement patterns of an endangered species, the Cabrera vole Microtus cabrerae. NATURE CONSERVATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.47.71864] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Roads are among the most widespread signs of man’s presence around the globe. From simple low traffic trails to wide and highly used highways, roads have a wide array of effects on wildlife. In the present study, we tested how habitat reduction by roads may affect the space use and movement patterns of the Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae), a near-threatened Iberian endemism, often living on road verges. A total of 16 voles were successfully radio-tracked in two habitat patches with different size and proximity to roads. Results showed that individuals from the smaller patch (Verge patch) had smaller and less complex home-ranges than those from the larger patch (Meadow patch). Movement patterns were significantly influenced by the day period but only in individuals from the Verge patch. There was evidence of a barrier effect in both habitat patches, being this effect much more noticeable in the verge population. Overall, this study shows that space use and movement patterns of Cabrera voles near roads may be affected by the degree of habitat reduction imposed by these infrastructures. This suggests that species space use and movement patterns at fine-scale should be accounted for in road planning, even for species that may benefit from road verge habitats as refuges.
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Ferreira EM, Valerio F, Medinas D, Fernandes N, Craveiro J, Costa P, Silva JP, Carrapato C, Mira A, Santos SM. Assessing behaviour states of a forest carnivore in a road-dominated landscape using Hidden Markov Models. NATURE CONSERVATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.47.72781] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Anthropogenic infrastructures and land-use changes are major threats to animal movements across heterogeneous landscapes. Yet, the behavioural consequences of such constraints remain poorly understood. We investigated the relationship between the behaviour of the Common genet (Genetta genetta) and road proximity, within a dominant mixed forest-agricultural landscape in southern Portugal, fragmented by roads. Specifically, we aimed to: (i) identify and characterise the behavioural states displayed by genets and related movement patterns; and (ii) understand how behavioural states are influenced by proximity to main paved roads and landscape features. We used a multivariate Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to characterise the fine-scale movements (10-min fixes GPS) of seven genets tracked during 187 nights (mean 27 days per individual) during the period 2016–2019, using distance to major paved roads and landscape features as predictors. Our findings indicated that genet’s movement patterns were composed of three basic behavioural states, classified as “resting” (short step-lengths [mean = 10.6 m] and highly tortuous), “foraging” (intermediate step-lengths [mean = 46.1 m] and with a wide range in turning angle) and “travelling” (longer step-lengths [mean = 113.7 m] and mainly linear movements). Within the genet’s main activity-period (17.00 h-08.00 h), the movement model predicts that genets spend 36.7% of their time travelling, 35.4% foraging and 28.0% resting. The probability of genets displaying the travelling state was highest in areas far away from roads (> 500 m), whereas foraging and resting states were more likely in areas relatively close to roads (up to 500 m). Landscape features also had a pronounced effect on behaviour state occurrence. More specifically, travelling was most likely to occur in areas with lower forest edge density and close to riparian habitats, while foraging was more likely to occur in areas with higher forest edge density and far away from riparian habitats. The results suggest that, although roads represent a behavioural barrier to the movement of genets, they also take advantage of road proximity as foraging areas. Our study demonstrates that the HMM approach is useful for disentangling movement behaviour and understanding how animals respond to roadsides and fragmented habitats. We emphasise that road-engaged stakeholders need to consider movement behaviour of genets when targeting management practices to maximise road permeability for wildlife.
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Area-Wide Prediction of Vertebrate and Invertebrate Hole Density and Depth across a Climate Gradient in Chile Based on UAV and Machine Learning. DRONES 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/drones5030086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Burrowing animals are important ecosystem engineers affecting soil properties, as their burrowing activity leads to the redistribution of nutrients and soil carbon sequestration. The magnitude of these effects depends on the spatial density and depth of such burrows, but a method to derive this type of spatially explicit data is still lacking. In this study, we test the potential of using consumer-oriented UAV RGB imagery to determine the density and depth of holes created by burrowing animals at four study sites along a climate gradient in Chile, by combining UAV data with empirical field plot observations and machine learning techniques. To enhance the limited spectral information in RGB imagery, we derived spatial layers representing vegetation type and height and used landscape textures and diversity to predict hole parameters. Across-site models for hole density generally performed better than those for depth, where the best-performing model was for the invertebrate hole density (R2 = 0.62). The best models at individual study sites were obtained for hole density in the arid climate zone (R2 = 0.75 and 0.68 for invertebrates and vertebrates, respectively). Hole depth models only showed good to fair performance. Regarding predictor importance, the models heavily relied on vegetation height, texture metrics, and diversity indices.
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11
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Carlson BS, Rotics S, Nathan R, Wikelski M, Jetz W. Individual environmental niches in mobile organisms. Nat Commun 2021; 12:4572. [PMID: 34315894 PMCID: PMC8316569 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24826-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2020] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Individual variation is increasingly recognized as a central component of ecological processes, but its role in structuring environmental niche associations remains largely unknown. Species' responses to environmental conditions are ultimately determined by the niches of single individuals, yet environmental associations are typically captured only at the level of species. Here, we develop scenarios for how individual variation may combine to define the compound environmental niche of populations, use extensive movement data to document individual environmental niche variation, test associated hypotheses of niche configuration, and examine the consistency of individual niches over time. For 45 individual white storks (Ciconia ciconia; 116 individual-year combinations), we uncover high variability in individual environmental associations, consistency of individual niches over time, and moderate to strong niche specialization. Within populations, environmental niches follow a nested pattern, with individuals arranged along a specialist-to-generalist gradient. These results reject common assumptions of individual niche equivalency among conspecifics, as well as the separation of individual niches into disparate parts of environmental space. These findings underscore the need for a more thorough consideration of individualistic environmental responses in global change research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben S Carlson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
| | - Shay Rotics
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Movement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Ran Nathan
- Movement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Radolfzell, Germany
- Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
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Earth Observation and Biodiversity Big Data for Forest Habitat Types Classification and Mapping. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13071231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
In the light of the “Biological Diversity” concept, habitats are cardinal pieces for biodiversity quantitative estimation at a local and global scale. In Europe EUNIS (European Nature Information System) is a system tool for habitat identification and assessment. Earth Observation (EO) data, which are acquired by satellite sensors, offer new opportunities for environmental sciences and they are revolutionizing the methodologies applied. These are providing unprecedented insights for habitat monitoring and for evaluating the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators. This paper shows the results of a novel approach for a spatially explicit habitat mapping in Italy at a national scale, using a supervised machine learning model (SMLM), through the combination of vegetation plot database (as response variable), and both spectral and environmental predictors. The procedure integrates forest habitat data in Italy from the European Vegetation Archive (EVA), with Sentinel-2 imagery processing (vegetation indices time series, spectral indices, and single bands spectral signals) and environmental data variables (i.e., climatic and topographic), to parameterize a Random Forests (RF) classifier. The obtained results classify 24 forest habitats according to the EUNIS III level: 12 broadleaved deciduous (T1), 4 broadleaved evergreen (T2) and eight needleleaved forest habitats (T3), and achieved an overall accuracy of 87% at the EUNIS II level classes (T1, T2, T3), and an overall accuracy of 76.14% at the EUNIS III level. The highest overall accuracy value was obtained for the broadleaved evergreen forest equal to 91%, followed by 76% and 68% for needleleaved and broadleaved deciduous habitat forests, respectively. The results of the proposed methodology open the way to increase the EUNIS habitat categories to be mapped together with their geographical extent, and to test different semi-supervised machine learning algorithms and ensemble modelling methods.
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Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon under Different Land Use Types Using Sentinel-1/-2 Data in a Small Watershed. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13071229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key property for evaluating soil quality. SOC is thus an important parameter of agricultural soils and needs to be regularly monitored. The aim of this study is to explore the potential of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery (Sentinel-1), optical satellite imagery (Sentinel-2), and digital elevation model (DEM) data to estimate the SOC content under different land use types. The extreme gradient boosting (XGboost) algorithm was used to predict the SOC content and evaluate the importance of feature variables under different land use types. For this purpose, 290 topsoil samples were collected and 49 features were derived from remote sensing images and DEM. Feature selection was carried out to prevent data redundancy. Coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), percent root mean squared error (%RMSE), ratio of performance to interquartile range (RPIQ), and corrected akaike information criterion (AICc) were employed for evaluating model performance. The results showed that Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data were both important for the prediction of SOC and the prediction accuracy of the model differed with land use types. Among them, the prediction accuracy of this model is the best for orchard (R2 = 0.86 and MSE = 0.004%), good for dry land (R2 = 0.74 and MSE = 0.008%) and paddy field (R2 = 0.66 and MSE = 0.009%). The prediction model of SOC content is effective and can provide support for the application of remote sensing data to soil property monitoring.
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Dakhil MA, Halmy MWA, Hassan WA, El-Keblawy A, Pan K, Abdelaal M. Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization. BIOLOGY 2021; 10:biology10010063. [PMID: 33477312 PMCID: PMC7830502 DOI: 10.3390/biology10010063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2020] [Revised: 01/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Simple Summary Climate change is one of the most significant drivers of habitat loss and species extinction, particularly montane endemic species such as Juniper trees, which are restricted to unique habitats. Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species is a promising tool or guide for species conservation planning. The loss in species habitat due to global warming indicates the level of extinction or endangerment. Predictions of suitable habitats are outputs from assessment analysis. This will help conservationists discover new populations of endemic species and help raise the awareness of local people to save and rescue these endangered species. Abstract Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed A. Dakhil
- Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Cairo 11790, Egypt
- CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
- Correspondence: (M.A.D.); (M.W.A.H.)
| | - Marwa Waseem A. Halmy
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Alexandria 21511, Egypt
- Correspondence: (M.A.D.); (M.W.A.H.)
| | - Walaa A. Hassan
- Department of Biology, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh P. O. Box 84428, Saudi Arabia;
| | - Ali El-Keblawy
- Department of Applied Biology, Faculty of Science, University of Sharjah, Sharjah P. O. Box 27272, UAE;
| | - Kaiwen Pan
- CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;
| | - Mohamed Abdelaal
- Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt;
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