Development of Integrated Crop Drought Index by Combining Rainfall, Land Surface Temperature, Evapotranspiration, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Index for Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Spatial-temporal variations of terrestrial evapotranspiration across China from 2000 to 2019

Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) refers to a key process in the hydrological cycle by which water is transferred from the Earth's surface to lower atmosphere. With spatiotemporal variations, ET plays a crucial role in the global ecosystem and affects vegetation distribution and productivity, climate, and water resources. China features a complex, diverse natural environment, leading to high spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ET and climatic variables. However, past and future ET trends in China remain largely unexplored. Thus, by using MOD16 products and meteorological datasets, this study examined the spatiotemporal variations of ET in China from 2000 to 2019 and analyzed what is behind changes, and explored future ET trends. Climate variation in China from 2000 to 2019 was statistically significant and had a remarkable impact on ET. Average annual ET increased at a rate of 5.3746 mm yr^-1 (P < 0.01) during the study period. The main drivers of the trend are increasing precipitation and wind speed. The increase in ET can also be explained to some extent by increasing temperature, decreasing sunshine duration and relative humidity. The zonation results show that the increase in temperature, wind speed, and precipitation and the decrease in relative humidity had large and positive effects on ET growth, and the decrease in sunshine duration had either promoting or inhibiting effects in different agricultural regions. Pixel-based variations in ET exhibited an overall increasing trend and obvious spatial volatility. The Hurst exponent indicates that the future trend of ET in China is characterized by significant anti-persistence, with widely distributed areas expected to experience a decline in ET. These findings improve the understanding of the role of climate variability in hydrological processes, and the ET variability in question will ultimately affect the climate system.

Regional frequency analysis of drought severity and duration in Karkheh River Basin, Iran using univariate L-moments method

Drought is one of the natural disasters that causes a great damage to human life and natural ecosystems. The main differences are in the gradual effect of drought over a relatively long period, impossibility of accurately determining time of the beginning and end of drought, and geographical extent of the associated effects. On the other hand, lack of a universally accepted definition of drought has added to the complexity of this phenomenon. In the last decade, due to increasing frequency of drought in Iran and reduction of water resources, its consequences have become apparent and have caused problems for planners and managers. So in this research, regional frequency analysis using L-moments methods was performed to investigate severity and duration of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SEI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and to study of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts in Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Using K-means clustering method, basin was divided into four homogeneous areas. Uncoordinated stations in each cluster were removed. The best regional distribution function was selected for each homogeneous region, and it was found that Pearson type (3) has the highest fit on the data set in the basin. Based on Hosking and Wallis heterogeneity test, Karkheh Basin with H₁ < 1 was identified as acceptable homogeneous in all clusters. The results showed that hydrological drought occurs with a very short time delay in Karkheh River Basin after the meteorological drought, and two indicators show meteorological and hydrological drought conditions well. Agricultural drought occurs after meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively, and its severity and duration are less than the other indicators. Meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts do not occur at the same time in all of the years. In general, the SPI drought index shows the most severe droughts compared with the other three indices. By this way, in 5- to 20-year return period with severity of 3SPI and in 20- to 100-year return period with severity of 7SPI, region IV or the western and northwestern areas of the basin has been affected by severe meteorological drought. By using the regional standardized quantities, it is possible to estimate the probability of drought in any part of the catchment that does not have sufficient data for hydrological studies.

Prenatal climate shocks and adult height in developing countries. Evidence from Japan (1872-1917)

This paper contributes to quantifying the biological implications of short-run climatic shocks and economic fluctuations in developing countries. Relying on a unique economic, climatic and anthropometric Japanese data covering the period from 1872 to 1917 (corresponding to the early phase of Japanese industrialization), we estimate the impact of yearly and monthly regional climate anomalies and yearly nationwide business cycle reversals on the average height of Japanese conscripts and its dispersion. Our estimations detect that climate anomalies during gestation and early infancy induced a decrease in average height observed at adulthood, as well as an increase in height dispersion, indicating greater welfare inequalities. These results indicate that pre-Anthropocene climate shocks had irremediable welfare implications for the poorest segments of the population in lower income countries.

Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Droughts are one of the world’s most destructive natural disasters. In large regions of Africa, droughts can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanism that drives drought and predicting its variability is important for enhancing early warning and disaster risk management. Taking North and West Africa as the study area, this study adopted multi-source data and various statistical analysis methods, such as the joint probability density function (JPDF), to study the meteorological drought and return years across a long term (1982–2018). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to evaluate the large-scale spatiotemporal drought characteristics at 1–12-month timescales. The intensity, severity, and duration of drought in the study area were evaluated using SPI–12. At the same time, the JPDF was used to determine the return year and identify the intensity, duration, and severity of drought. The Mann-Kendall method was used to test the trend of SPI and annual precipitation at 1–12-month timescales. The pattern of drought occurrence and its correlation with climate factors were analyzed. The results showed that the drought magnitude (DM) of the study area was the highest in 2008–2010, 2000–2003, and 1984–1987, with the values of 5.361, 2.792, and 2.187, respectively, and the drought lasting for three years in each of the three periods. At the same time, the lowest DM was found in 1997–1998, 1993–1994, and 1991–1992, with DM values of 0.113, 0.658, and 0.727, respectively, with a duration of one year each time. It was confirmed that the probability of return to drought was higher when the duration of drought was shorter, with short droughts occurring more regularly, but not all severe droughts hit after longer time intervals. Beyond this, we discovered a direct connection between drought and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) over Morocco, Algeria, and the sub-Saharan countries, and some slight indications that drought is linked with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over Guinea, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria.