Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities on NDVI Changes in China

Assessment of climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation dynamics in China: a consideration of climate time-lag and cumulative effects

Determining the factors that drive vegetation variation is complicated by the intricate interactions between climatic and anthropogenic influences. Neglecting the short-term time-lag and cumulative effects of climate on vegetation growth (i.e., temporal effects) exacerbates the uncertainty in attributing long-term vegetation dynamics. This study evaluated the climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation dynamics in China from 2000 to 2019 by analyzing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and ten anthropogenic indicators through linear regression, correlation, multiple linear regression (MLR), residual, and principal component analyses. Across most regions, growing season NDVI (G-NDVI) exhibited heightened sensitivity to climatic variables from earlier periods or from both earlier and current periods, signaling extensive temporal climatic effects. Constructing new time series for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation from 2000 to 2019, based on the optimal vegetation response timing to each climatic variable, revealed significant correlations with G-NDVI across 27.9%, 26.7%, and 23.3% of the study area, respectively. Climate variability and anthropogenic activities contributed 45% and 55% to the G-NDVI increase in China, respectively. Afforestation significantly promoted vegetation greening, while agricultural development had a marginally positive influence. In contrast, urbanization negatively impacted vegetation, particularly in eastern China, where farmland conversion to constructed land has been prevalent over the past two decades. Neglecting temporal effects would significantly reduce the areas with robust MLR models linking G-NDVI to climatic variables, thereby increasing uncertainty in attributing vegetation changes. The findings highlight the necessity of integrating multiple anthropogenic factors and climatic temporal effects in evaluating vegetation dynamics and ecological restoration.

Study on the relationship between regional soil desertification and salinization and groundwater based on remote sensing inversion: A case study of the windy beach area in Northern Shaanxi

Soil desertification and salinization are important environmental concerns in arid regions, and their relationship with groundwater change must be further clarified. However, the relationships among soil desertification, salinization, and groundwater are difficult to investigate on a large spatiotemporal scale using traditional ground surveys. In the windy beach area in Northern Shaanxi (WBANS), desertification and salinization problems coexist; therefore, this area was selected as the study area. The feasibility of implementing large-scale remote sensing inversions to identify the degree of desertification and salinization was verified based on measured data, and the degree of influence of groundwater burial depth (GBD) on desertification and salinization was quantified using the geodetector and residual trend analysis methods. The results showed that the GBD in the WBANS presented an increasing trend and the degree of salinization showed a decreasing trend. Moreover, the joint influence of the unique natural environment and anthropogenic activities has led to increases in fractional vegetation cover and considerable improvements in the ecological environment. The intensity of desertification explained by GBD in the WBANS increased significantly (p < 0.01) at a rate of change of 0.0190/year, with high q-values above 0.66 for both Yuyang and Shenmu. The contribution rate of potential evapotranspiration and precipitation to salinization in Yuyang and Shenmu was >97 %, and the contribution rate of GBD to salinization in Dingbian, Jingbian, and Hengshan was 34.78 %, 31.15 %, and 29.41 %, respectively. Overall, the suitable GBD in the WBANS is 2-4 m. The study results provide a reference for research on the inversion, monitoring, and prevention of desertification and salinization dynamics on a large spatiotemporal scale and offer a scientific basis for rationally determining GBD.

Driving factors analysis of spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation ecosystem in rocky desertification restoration area of Guizhou Province, China

The investigation of the temporal-spatial characteristics and driving factors of vegetation ecosystem (VE) alterations held significant practical implications for the evaluation of the efficacy of rocky desertification management initiatives and safeguarding the ecological environment in the rocky desertification restoration region of Guizhou. We computed the comprehensive ecological quality index (Q) of vegetation based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and net primary productivity (NPP). Combined with temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, rocky desertification grade, land use, and the time series of various regions being included in national ecological functional zones, we analyzed the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of VE changes and their response to climate change (CC) and ecological engineering (EE) by using partial derivative analysis method and scenario setting method in rocky desertification restoration areas in Guizhou. Results demonstrated that (1) the average values of NDVI, NPP, and Q all showed a fluctuating upward trend since 2000. Although the VE status of rocky desertification area was obviously worse than that of no rocky desertification area, it has a higher growth rate, especially the growth rates of NDVI, NPP, and Q in severe rocky desertification area were as high as 0.0050 year-1, 9.0733 g C m-2 year-1, and 0.7829 year-1, and the area with high recovery degree accounted for 93.19%, followed by the middle rocky desertification area. (2) CC was the main driving factor for NDVI and Q recovery, and EE was the main driving factor for NPP recovery. The contribution of EE to NPP and Q recovery increased with the increase of rocky desertification, as high as 82.13% and 30.31% in severe rocky desertification area. (3) The more serious the rocky desertification was, the more dependent the vegetation restoration was on ecological engineering, and the more difficult the restoration was. It was urgent to solve the ecological environmental problems. (4) EE played a greater role in the restoration of VE in the early stage of implementation. Its role gradually decreased in the later stages of implementation, while the role of CC increased. We provide a scientific basis for the follow-up treatment of rocky desertification, ecological environment restoration, and ecological protection effectiveness evaluation in Guizhou.

Considering Climatic Factors, Time Lag, and Cumulative Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation NDVI in Yinshanbeilu, China

Climate and human activities are the basic driving forces that control and influence the spatial distribution and change of vegetation. Using trend analysis, the Hurst index, correlation analysis, the Moran index, path analysis, residual analysis, and other methods, the effects of human activities and climate factors on vegetation change were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The research area's normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) exhibited a substantial upward trend from 2001 to 2020, increasing at a rate of 0.003/a, and the vegetation cover was generally healthy. The generally constant NDVI region made up 78.45% of the entire area, and the grassland, cultivated land, and forest land showed the most visible NDVI aggregation features. (2) The Vegetation is mainly promoted by water and heat, particularly precipitation, have a major impact on plants, with the direct influence of precipitation on vegetation growth being much greater than the indirect effect through the temperature. (3) The trend of NDVI residuals showed obvious spatial variability, presenting a distribution characteristic of high in the south and low in the north. The results of this study can provide a basis for the scientific layout of ecological protection and restoration projects in the Yinshanbeilu area.

Analysis of the impact of green urban areas in historic fortified cities using Landsat historical series and Normalized Difference Indices

Urban green areas minimize the negative effects of climatic change and improve the sustainability of historic cities. Despite this, green areas have traditionally been considered a threat to heritage buildings because they cause humidity changes, that accelerate degradation processes. Within this context, this study evaluates the trends in the inclusion of green areas in historic cities and the effects it causes on humidity and conservation of earthen fortifications. To achieve this goal, vegetative and humidity information has been obtained since 1985 from Landsat satellite images. The historical series of images has been statistically analysed in Google Earth Engine to obtain maps that show the means, 25th, and 75th percentiles of the variations registered in the last 35 years. The results allow visualizing spatial patterns and plotting the seasonal and monthly variations. In the decision-making process, the proposed method allows to monitor whether the presence of vegetation is an environmental degradation agent in the nearby earthen fortifications.The analysis of the historic fortified cities of Seville and Niebla (Spain) shows a gradual increase in green areas and an interest in locating them near the earthen fortifications. The impact on the fortifications is specific to each type of vegetation and can be positive or negative. In general, the low humidity registered indicates low danger, and the presence of green areas favours drying after heavy rains. This study suggests that increasing green spaces to historic cities does not necessarily endanger the preservation of earthen fortifications. Instead, managing both heritage sites and urban green areas together can encourage outdoor cultural activities, reduce the impacts of climate change, and enhance the sustainability of historic cities.

Revealing the dominant factors of vegetation change in global ecosystems

In the context of climate change, revealing the causes of significant changes in ecosystems will help maintain ecosystem stability and achieve sustainability. However, the dominant influencing factors of different ecosystems in different months on a global scale are not clear. We used Ordinary Least Squares Model and Mann–Kendall test to detect the significant changes (p &lt; 0.05) of ecosystem on a monthly scale from 1981 to 2015. And then multi-source data, residual analysis and partial correlation method was used to distinguish the impact of anthropogenic activities and dominant climate factors. The result showed that: (1) Not all significant green areas in all months were greater than the browning areas. Woodland had a larger greening area than farmland and grassland, except for January, May, and June, and a larger browning area except for September, November, and December. (2) Anthropogenic activities are the leading factors causing significant greening in ecosystems. However, their impact on significant ecosystem browning was not greater than that of climate change on significant ecosystem greening in all months. (3) The main cause of the ecosystem’s significant greening was temperature. Along with temperature, sunshine duration played a major role in the significant greening of the woodland. The main causes of significant farmland greening were precipitation and soil moisture. Temperature was the main factor that dominated the longest month of significant browning of grassland and woodland. Temperature and soil moisture were the main factors that dominated the longest month of significant browning of farmland. Our research reveals ecosystem changes and their dominant factors on a global scale, thereby supporting the sustainable ecosystem management.

Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamic in China based on multiple indices

Distinguishing the respective roles of climate change and anthropogenic activities can provide crucial information for sustainable management of the environment. Here, using the residual trend method (RESTREND), which measures the residue of the actual and potential trends of vegetation, we quantified the relative contributions of human activities (e.g., ecological restoration, overgrazing, and urbanization) and climate change (the warmer and wetter trend) to vegetation dynamics in China during 1988-2018 based on multiple vegetation indices, including the vegetation optical depth (Ku-VOD, C-VOD), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and gross primary productivity (GPP). The results showed that the VOD, NDVI, and GPP exhibited overall increasing trends during 1988-2018. Human activities contributed >70% to the increases in NDVI and GPP in China, whereas a counterbalanced contribution of human activities and climate change was identified for the VOD dynamics (51% vs. 49%). Regions with high contributions from human activities to NDVI, GPP, and VOD were located in northeastern, southern, central, and northwestern China. In northern China, the positive impacts of human activities on NDVI (78%) and BEPS-GPP (83%) were greater than those of climate change. In contrast, human activities contributed 96% to the decrease in Ku-VOD over the same period. Before 2000, climate change promoted increases in GPP and NDVI in most regions of southern China. The increasing rates of GPP and NDVI accelerated after 2000 due to afforestation. However, human activities like overgrazing and urbanization have led to decreases in Ku-VOD in northern and southwestern China, and in C-VOD in northeastern, eastern, central, southwestern, and southern China. In all, the relative roles of climate and human factors varied in different regions when NDVI, GPP, or VOD were individually considered. Our results highlighted that the regional-scale vegetation conditions should be taken into full account to achieve sustainable management of ecosystems.

Trend Changes of the Vegetation Activity in Northeastern East Asia and the Connections with Extreme Climate Indices

In the context of global warming, vegetation activity in northeastern East Asia (40–45°N, 105–130°E) (NEA) shows a significant growth trend on a multidecadal scale, but how vegetation changes on a decadal scale is unclear. In this study, we find a significant trend of vegetation greening in northeastern East Asia during 1982–1998 and a slowdown in the greening trend during 1998–2014. Trend analysis of the extreme climate indices reveals that the trends of precipitation-related extreme climate indices are similar to those of vegetation change, and further correlation analysis reveals that precipitation-related extreme climate indices have a strong positive correlation with the NDVI. The results indicate that the vegetation in northeastern East Asia is more sensitive to precipitation changes, especially extreme precipitation, compared with the temperature and related extreme indices. Furthermore, the analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes suggests a role of Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) in the trend changes of precipitation-related extreme indices. The strengthening of NPSH before 1998 enhances the moisture transport to the NEA, providing abundant water vapor favorable for extreme precipitation events, while after 1998, the NPSH trend is much weakened, corresponding to a decrease in the moisture transport trend.

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought Since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Drought is one of the major environmental stressors; drought is increasingly threatening the living environment of mankind. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month timescale was adopted to monitor dry–wet status over China from 1951 to 2021. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used to assess the temporal trend and nonlinear behavior of annual drought variability. The analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal structure of the dry–wet transition and its general connections with climate change processes. In addition, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to forecast the dry–wet behavior in the next year (2022) at 160 stations, and the hotspot areas for extreme dryness–wetness in China were identified in the near term. The results indicate that the dry–wet climate in China overall exhibits interannual variability characterized by intensified drought. The climate in the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), Northwest China (NWC), and Southwest China (SWC) has experienced a significant (p < 0.05) drying trend; however, the dry–wet changes in the East China (EC) and South Central China (SCC) are highly spatially heterogeneous. The significant uptrend in precipitation is mainly concentrated to the west of 100° E; the rising magnitude of precipitation is higher in Eastern China near 30° N, with a changing rate of 20–40 mm/decade. Each of the sub-regions has experienced significant (p < 0.01) warming over the past 71 years. Geographically, the increase in temperature north of 30° N is noticeably higher than that south of 30° N, with trend magnitudes of 0.30–0.50 °C/decade and 0.15–0.30 °C/decade, respectively. The response of the northern part of Eastern China to the warming trend had already emerged as early as the 1980s; these responses were earlier and more intense than those south of 40° N latitude (1990s). The drying trends are statistically significant in the northern and southern regions, bounded by 30° N, with trend magnitudes of −0.30–−0.20/decade and −0.20–−0.10/decade, respectively. The northern and southwestern parts of China have experienced a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the drought level since the 1950s, which is closely related to significant warming in recent decades. This study reveals the consistency of the spatial distribution of variations in precipitation and the SPEI along 30° N latitude. A weak uptrend in the SPEI, i.e., an increase in wetness, is shown in Eastern China surrounding 30° N, with a changing rate of 0.003–0.10/decade; this is closely associated with increasing precipitation in the area. Drought forecasting indicates that recent drying areas are located in NWC, the western part of NC, the western part of SWC, and the southern part of SCC. The climate is expected to show wetting characteristics in NEC, the southeastern part of NC, and the eastern part of EC. The dry–wet conditions spanning the area between 30–40° N and 100–110° E exhibit a greater spatial variability. The region between 20–50° N and 80–105° E will continue to face intense challenges from drought in the near future. This study provides compelling evidence for the temporal variability of meteorological drought in different sub-regions of China. The findings may contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal effect of historical climate change on dry–wet variation in the region since the 1950s, particularly in the context of global warming.

Impact of Extreme Climate on the NDVI of Different Steppe Areas in Inner Mongolia, China

The frequency of extreme climate events has increased resulting in major changes to vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas. We selected 12 extreme climate indices and used trend analysis and multiple linear regression models to analyze extreme climate trends in steppe areas of Inner Mongolia and their impact on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). From 1998 to 2017, the NDVI of the Inner Mongolia steppe increased overall; however, there was a small area of decrease. Extreme climate indices related to warming exhibited increasing trends, particularly in the desert steppe. Although the extreme precipitation index did not change significantly overall, it increased in the northeastern and southwestern regions of the study area and decreased in the central region. The established model showed that the extreme climate explained the highest NDVI variation in desert steppe (R2 = 0.413), followed by typical steppe (R2 = 0.229), and meadow steppe (R2 = 0.109). In desert steppe, TX90P (warm days index) had the greatest impact; in typical steppe, R10 (number of heavy precipitation days index) had the greatest impact; in meadow steppe, R95P (very wet days index) had the greatest impact. This study offered new insights into dynamic vegetation changes in steppe areas of Inner Mongolia and provided a scientific basis for implementing environmental protection strategies.

Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation Growth in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019

A changing climate has been posing significant impacts on vegetation growth, especially in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) where agriculture and ecosystems are extremely vulnerable. In this study, the data for normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained from moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors and climate data (precipitation and temperature) derived from the national meteorological stations were employed to examine the spatiotemporal differences in vegetation growth and its reaction to climate changes in the YRB from 2000–2019, using several sophisticated statistical methods. The results showed that both NDVI and climatic variables exhibited overall increasing trends during this period, and positive correlations at different significant levels were found between temperature/precipitation and NDVI. Furthermore, NDVI in spring had the strongest response to temperature/precipitation, and the correlation coefficient of NDVI with temperature and precipitation was 0.485 and 0.726, respectively. However, an opposite situation was detected in autumn (September to November) since NDVIs exhibited the weakest responses to temperatures/precipitation, and the NDVI’s correlation with both temperature and precipitation was 0.13. This indicated that, compared to other seasons, increasing the temperature and precipitation has the most significant effect on NDVI in spring (March to May). Except for a few places in the northern, southern, and southwestern regions of the YRB, NDVI was positively correlated with precipitation in most areas. There was an inverse relationship between NDVI and temperature in most parts of the central YRB, especially in summer (June to August) and growing season (May to September); however, there was a positive correlation in most areas of the YRB in spring. Finally, continuous attention must be given to the influence of other factors in the YRB.

Climate, CO2, and Anthropogenic Drivers of Accelerated Vegetation Greening in the Haihe River Basin

Vegetation regulates the exchange of terrestrial carbon and water fluxes and connects the biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Over the last four decades, vegetation greening has been observed worldwide using satellite technology. China has also experienced a notably widespread greening trend. However, the responsiveness of vegetation dynamics to elevated CO2 concentration, climate change, and human activities remains unclear. In this study, we attempted to explore the impact of natural (precipitation, air temperature), biogeochemical (CO2), and anthropogenic drivers (nighttime light, afforestation area) on changes in vegetation greenness in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) during 2002–2018 at the county-level. We further determined the major factors affecting the variation in satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for each county. The results indicated that over 85% of the counties had a significantly increased NDVI trend, and the average linear trend of annual NDVI across the study region was 0.0037 per year. The largest contributor to the NDVI trend was CO2 (mean contribution 45%), followed by human activities (mean contribution of 27%). Additionally, afforestation was a pronounced driving force for NDVI changes in mountainous areas, resulting from ecosystem restoration efforts. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of CO2 fertilization in vegetation cover change, while considering CO2 concentration, climate change, and human activities, and shed light on the significant influences of afforestation programs on water resources, especially in mountainous areas.