Drought Assessment on Vegetation in the Loess Plateau Using a Phenology-Based Vegetation Condition Index

Tracking effects of extreme drought on coniferous forests from space using dynamic habitat indices

Terrestrial ecosystems such as coniferous forests in Central Europe are experiencing changes in health status following extreme droughts compounding with severe heat waves. The increasing temporal resolution and spatial coverage of earth observation data offer new opportunities to assess these dynamics. Dense time-series of optical satellite data allow for computing Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), which have been predominantly used in biodiversity studies. However, DHIs cover three aspects of vegetation changes that could be affected by drought: annual productivity, minimum cover, and seasonality. Here, we evaluate the health status of coniferous forests in the federal state of Hesse in Germany over the period 2017-2020 including the severe drought year of 2018 using DHIs based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for drought assessment. To identify the most important variables affecting coniferous forest die-off, a series of environmental variables together with the three DHIs components were used in a logistic regression (LR) model. Each DHI component changed significantly across non-damaged and damaged sites in all years (p-value 0.05). When comparing 2017 to 2019, DHI-based annual productivity decreased and seasonality increased. Most importantly, none of the DHI components had reached pre-drought conditions, which likely indicates a change in ecosystem functioning. We also identified spatially explicit areas highly affected by drought. The LR model revealed that in addition to common environmental parameters related to temperature, precipitation, and elevation, DHI components were the most important factors explaining the health status. Our analysis demonstrates the potential of DHIs to capture the effect of drought events on Central European coniferous forest ecosystems. Since the spaceborne data are available at the global level, this approach can be applied to track the dynamics of ecosystem conditions in other regions, at larger spatial scales, and for other Land Use/Land Cover types.

Determining optimal probability distributions for gridded precipitation data based on L-moments

Understanding the probability distributions of precipitation is crucial for predicting climatic events and constructing hydraulic facilities. To overcome the inadequacy of precipitation data, regional frequency analysis was commonly used by "trading space for time". However, with the increasing availability of gridded precipitation datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions, the probability distributions of precipitation for these datasets have been less explored. We used L-moments and goodness-of-fit criteria to identify the probability distributions of annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation for a 0.5° × 0.5° dataset across the Loess Plateau (LP). We examined five 3-parameter distributions, namely General Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Generalized Normal (GNO), and Pearson type III (PE3), and evaluated the accuracy of estimated rainfall using the leave-one-out method. We also presented pixel-wise fit-parameters and quantiles of precipitation as supplements. Our findings indicated that precipitation probability distributions vary by location and time scale, and the fitted probability distribution functions are reliable for estimating precipitation under various return periods. Specifically, for annual precipitation, GLO was prevalent in humid and semi-humid areas, GEV in semi-arid and arid areas, and PE3 in cold-arid areas. For seasonal precipitation, spring precipitation mainly conforms to GLO distribution, summer precipitation around the 400 mm isohyet prevalently follows GEV distribution, autumn precipitation primarily meets GPA and PE3 distributions, and winter precipitation in the northwest, south, and east of the LP mainly conforms to GPA, PE3 and GEV distributions, respectively. Regarding monthly precipitation, the common distribution functions are PE3 and GPA for the less-precipitation months, whereas the distribution functions of precipitation for more-precipitation months vary substantially across different regions of the LP. Our study contributes to a better understanding of precipitation probability distributions in the LP and provides insights for future studies on gridded precipitation datasets using robust statistical methods.

Copula-Based Assessment and Regionalization of Drought Risk in China

Droughts are widespread in China and have brought considerable losses to the economy and society. Droughts are intricate, stochastic processes with multi-attributes (e.g., duration, severity, intensity, and return period). However, most drought assessments tend to focus on univariate drought characteristics, which are inadequate to describe the intrinsic characteristics of droughts due to the existence of correlations between drought attributes. In this study, we employed the standardized precipitation index to identify drought events using China's monthly gridded precipitation dataset from 1961 to 2020. Univariate and copula-based bivariate methods were then used to examine drought duration and severity on 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales. Finally, we used the hierarchical cluster method to identify drought-prone regions in mainland China at various return periods. Results revealed that time scale played an essential role in the spatial heterogeneity of drought behaviors, such as average characteristics, joint probability, and risk regionalization. The main findings were as follows: (1) 3- and 6-month time scales yielded comparable regional drought features, but not 12-month time scales; (2) higher drought severity was associated with longer drought duration; (3) drought risk was higher in the northern Xinjiang, western Qinghai, southern Tibet, southwest China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and lower in the southeastern coastal areas of China, the Changbai Mountains, and the Greater Khingan Mountains; (4) mainland China was divided into six subregions according to joint probabilities of drought duration and severity. Our study is expected to contribute to better drought risk assessment in mainland China.