Robust and Accurate Modeling Approaches for Migraine Per-Patient Prediction from Ambulatory Data

Application of Artificial Intelligence in the Headache Field

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Headache disorders are highly prevalent worldwide. Rapidly advancing capabilities in artificial intelligence (AI) have expanded headache-related research with the potential to solve unmet needs in the headache field. We provide an overview of AI in headache research in this article.

RECENT FINDINGS

We briefly introduce machine learning models and commonly used evaluation metrics. We then review studies that have utilized AI in the field to advance diagnostic accuracy and classification, predict treatment responses, gather insights from various data sources, and forecast migraine attacks. Furthermore, given the emergence of ChatGPT, a type of large language model (LLM), and the popularity it has gained, we also discuss how LLMs could be used to advance the field. Finally, we discuss the potential pitfalls, bias, and future directions of employing AI in headache medicine. Many recent studies on headache medicine incorporated machine learning, generative AI and LLMs. A comprehensive understanding of potential pitfalls and biases is crucial to using these novel techniques with minimum harm. When used appropriately, AI has the potential to revolutionize headache medicine.

Machine Learning and Wearable Technology: Monitoring Changes in Biomedical Signal Patterns during Pre-Migraine Nights

Migraine is one of the most common neurological disorders, characterized by moderate-to-severe headache episodes. Autonomic nervous system (ANS) alterations can occur at phases of migraine attack. This study investigates patterns of ANS changes during the pre-ictal night of migraine, utilizing wearable biosensor technology in ten individuals. Various physiological, activity-based, and signal processing metrics were examined to train predictive models and understand the relationship between specific features and migraine occurrences. Data were filtered based on specified criteria for nocturnal sleep, and analysis frames ranging from 5 to 120 min were used to improve the diversity of the training sample and investigate the impact of analysis frame duration on feature significance and migraine prediction. Several models, including XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting), HistGradientBoosting (Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting), Random Forest, SVM, and KNN, were trained on unbalanced data and using cost-sensitive learning with a 5:1 ratio. To evaluate the changes in features during pre-migraine nights and nights before migraine-free days, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed. The results showed that the features of electrodermal activity, skin temperature, and accelerometer exhibited the highest F-statistic values and the most significant p-values in the 5 and 10 min frames, which makes them particularly useful for the early detection of migraines. The generalized prediction model using XGBoost and a 5 min analysis frame achieved 0.806 for accuracy, 0.638 for precision, 0.595 for recall, and 0.607 for F1-score. Despite identifying distinguishing features between pre-migraine and migraine-free nights, the performance of the current model suggests the need for further improvements for clinical application.

Artificial intelligence and headache

BACKGROUND AND METHODS

In this narrative review, we introduce key artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) concepts, aimed at headache clinicians and researchers. Thereafter, we thoroughly review the use of AI in headache, based on a comprehensive literature search across PubMed, Embase and IEEExplore. Finally, we discuss limitations, as well as ethical and political perspectives.

RESULTS

We identified six main research topics. First, natural language processing can be used to effectively extract and systematize unstructured headache research data, such as from electronic health records. Second, the most common application of ML is for classification of headache disorders, typically based on clinical record data, or neuroimaging data, with accuracies ranging from around 60% to well over 90%. Third, ML is used for prediction of headache disease trajectories. Fourth, ML shows promise in forecasting of headaches using self-reported data such as triggers and premonitory symptoms, data from wearable sensors and external data. Fifth and sixth, ML can be used for prediction of treatment responses and inference of treatment effects, respectively, aiming to optimize and individualize headache management.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential uses of AI and ML in headache are broad, but, at present, many studies suffer from poor reporting and lack out-of-sample evaluation, and most models are not validated in a clinical setting.

Migraine headache (MH) classification using machine learning methods with data augmentation

Migraine headache, a prevalent and intricate neurovascular disease, presents significant challenges in its clinical identification. Existing techniques that use subjective pain intensity measures are insufficiently accurate to make a reliable diagnosis. Even though headaches are a common condition with poor diagnostic specificity, they have a significant negative influence on the brain, body, and general human function. In this era of deeply intertwined health and technology, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a crucial force in transforming every aspect of healthcare, utilizing advanced facilities ML has shown groundbreaking achievements related to developing classification and automatic predictors. With this, deep learning models, in particular, have proven effective in solving complex problems spanning computer vision and data analytics. Consequently, the integration of ML in healthcare has become vital, especially in developing countries where limited medical resources and lack of awareness prevail, the urgent need to forecast and categorize migraines using artificial intelligence (AI) becomes even more crucial. By training these models on a publicly available dataset, with and without data augmentation. This study focuses on leveraging state-of-the-art ML algorithms, including support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), decision tree (DST), and deep neural networks (DNN), to predict and classify various types of migraines. The proposed models with data augmentations were trained to classify seven various types of migraine. The proposed models with data augmentations were trained to classify seven various types of migraine. The revealed results show that DNN, SVM, KNN, DST, and RF achieved an accuracy of 99.66%, 94.60%, 97.10%, 88.20%, and 98.50% respectively with data augmentation highlighting the transformative potential of AI in enhancing migraine diagnosis.

Forecasting migraine with machine learning based on mobile phone diary and wearable data

INTRODUCTION

Triggers, premonitory symptoms and physiological changes occur in the preictal migraine phase and may be used in models for forecasting attacks. Machine learning is a promising option for such predictive analytics. The objective of this study was to explore the utility of machine learning to forecast migraine attacks based on preictal headache diary entries and simple physiological measurements.

METHODS

In a prospective development and usability study 18 patients with migraine completed 388 headache diary entries and self-administered app-based biofeedback sessions wirelessly measuring heart rate, peripheral skin temperature and muscle tension. Several standard machine learning architectures were constructed to forecast headache the subsequent day. Models were scored with area under the receiver operating characteristics curve.

RESULTS

Two-hundred-and-ninety-five days were included in the predictive modelling. The top performing model, based on random forest classification, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.62 in a hold-out partition of the dataset.

DISCUSSION

In this study we demonstrate the utility of using mobile health apps and wearables combined with machine learning to forecast headache. We argue that high-dimensional modelling may greatly improve forecasting and discuss important considerations for future design of forecasting models using machine learning and mobile health data.

Fear Detection in Multimodal Affective Computing: Physiological Signals versus Catecholamine Concentration

Affective computing through physiological signals monitoring is currently a hot topic in the scientific literature, but also in the industry. Many wearable devices are being developed for health or wellness tracking during daily life or sports activity. Likewise, other applications are being proposed for the early detection of risk situations involving sexual or violent aggressions, with the identification of panic or fear emotions. The use of other sources of information, such as video or audio signals will make multimodal affective computing a more powerful tool for emotion classification, improving the detection capability. There are other biological elements that have not been explored yet and that could provide additional information to better disentangle negative emotions, such as fear or panic. Catecholamines are hormones produced by the adrenal glands, two small glands located above the kidneys. These hormones are released in the body in response to physical or emotional stress. The main catecholamines, namely adrenaline, noradrenaline and dopamine have been analysed, as well as four physiological variables: skin temperature, electrodermal activity, blood volume pulse (to calculate heart rate activity. i.e., beats per minute) and respiration rate. This work presents a comparison of the results provided by the analysis of physiological signals in reference to catecholamine, from an experimental task with 21 female volunteers receiving audiovisual stimuli through an immersive environment in virtual reality. Artificial intelligence algorithms for fear classification with physiological variables and plasma catecholamine concentration levels have been proposed and tested. The best results have been obtained with the features extracted from the physiological variables. Adding catecholamine’s maximum variation during the five minutes after the video clip visualization, as well as adding the five measurements (1-min interval) of these levels, are not providing better performance in the classifiers.

Cluster-then-classify methodology for the identification of pain episodes in chronic diseases

Chronic diseases benefit of the advances on personalize medicine coming out of the integrative convergence of significant developments in systems biology, the Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence. 70% to 80% of all healthcare costs in the EU and US are currently spent on chronic diseases, leading to estimated costs of 700 billion and $3.5 trillion respectively. The management of symptomatic pain crises in chronic diseases is based on general clinical guidelines that do not take into account the singularities of the crises, such as their intensity or duration, so that the pain of those particular crises may cause the medication to be ineffective and lead the patient to overmedication. Knowing in detail the characteristics of the pain would help the physician to objectively prescribe personalized treatments for each patient and crisis. In this manuscript, we make a step further on the prediction of symptomatic crisis from ambulatory collected data in chronic diseases. We propose a categorization of pain types according to subjective symptoms of real patients. Our approach has been evaluated in the migraine disease. The migraine is one of the most disabling neurological diseases that affects over 12% of the population worldwide and leads to high economic costs for private and public health systems. This study aims to classify pain episodes by the characterization of pain curves reported by patients in real time. Pain curves have been described as a set of morphological features. With these features the pain episodes are clustered then classified by unsupervised and supervised machine learning models. It is shown that the evolution of different pain episodes in chronic diseases can be modeled and clustered. Over a population of 51 migraine patients, it has been found that there are 4 clusters of pain types that can be classified using 4 morphological features with an accuracy of 99.0% using a Logistic Model Tree algorithm.

Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Episodic Migraine Attacks Based on Daily Trigger Exposures

OBJECTIVE

To develop and internally validate a multivariable predictive model for days with new-onset migraine headaches based on patient self-prediction and exposure to common trigger factors.

BACKGROUND

Accurate real-time forecasting of one's daily risk of migraine attack could help episodic migraine patients to target preventive medications for susceptible time periods and help decrease the burden of disease. Little is known about the predictive utility of common migraine trigger factors.

METHODS

We recruited adults with episodic migraine through online forums to participate in a 90-day prospective daily-diary cohort study conducted through a custom research application for iPhone. Every evening, participants answered questions about migraine occurrence and potential predictors including stress, sleep, caffeine and alcohol consumption, menstruation, and self-prediction. We developed and estimated multivariable multilevel logistic regression models for the risk of a new-onset migraine day vs a healthy day and internally validated the models using repeated cross-validation.

RESULTS

We had 178 participants complete the study and qualify for the primary analysis which included 1870 migraine events. We found that a decrease in caffeine consumption, higher self-predicted probability of headache, a higher level of stress, and times within 2 days of the onset of menstruation were positively associated with next-day migraine risk. The multivariable model predicted migraine risk only slightly better than chance (within-person C-statistic: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, episodic migraine attacks were not predictable based on self-prediction or on self-reported exposure to common trigger factors. Improvements in accuracy and breadth of data collection are needed to build clinically useful migraine prediction models.

Individual differences of maladaptive brain changes in migraine and their relationship with differential effectiveness of treatments

Migraine is a difficult disorder to identify with regard to its pathophysiological mechanisms, and its treatment has been primarily difficult owing to interindividual differences. Substantial rates of nonresponsiveness to medications are common, making migraine treatment complicated. In this review, we systematically analyzed recent studies concerning neuroimaging findings regarding the neurophysiology of migraine. We linked the current imaging research with anecdotal evidence from interindividual factors such as duration and pain intensity of migraine, age, gender, hormonal interplay, and genetics. These factors suggested the use of nonpharmacological therapies such as transcranial magnetic stimulation, transcranial direct current stimulation, and placebo therapy for the treatment of migraine. Finally, we discussed how interindividual differences are related to such nondrug treatments.

“MigraineMonitor” – Towards a System for the Prediction of Migraine Attacks using Electrostimulation

Migraine attacks can be accompanied by many different symptoms, some of them appearing within 24 hours before the onset of the headache. In previous work, reduced habituation to an electrical pain stimulus at the head was observed in the pre-ictal phase within 24 hours before the headache attack. Based on these results, this work presents an application to track influence factors on migraine attacks and an Arduino-based control unit which replaces the traditional approach of manual electrical stimulation. The usability of both components of the project was evaluated in separate user studies. Results of the usability study show a good acceptance of the systems with a mean SUS score of 92.4. Additionally, they indicate that the developed control unit may substitute the current manual electrical stimulation. Overall, the designed system allows standardized repeatable measurements and is a first step towards the home-use of a device for establishing a new method for migraine prediction.

Using Sleep Time Data from Wearable Sensors for Early Detection of Migraine Attacks

The migraine is a chronic, incapacitating neurovascular disorder, characterized by attacks of severe headache and autonomic nervous system dysfunction. Among the working age population, the costs of migraine are 111 billion euros in Europe alone. The early detection of migraine attacks would reduce these costs, as it would shorten the migraine attack by enabling correct timing when taking preventive medication. In this article, whether it is possible to detect migraine attacks beforehand using wearable sensors is studied, and t preliminary results about how accurate the recognition can be are provided. The data for the study were collected from seven study subjects using a wrist-worn Empatica E4 sensor, which measures acceleration, galvanic skin response, blood volume pulse, heart rate and heart rate variability, and temperature. Only sleep time data were used in this study. A novel method to increase the number of training samples is introduced, and the results show that, using personal recognition models and quadratic discriminant analysis as a classifier, balanced accuracy for detecting attacks one night prior is over 84%. While this detection rate is high, the results also show that balance accuracy varies greatly between study subjects, which shows how complicated the problem actually is. However, at this point, the results are preliminary as the data set contains only seven study subjects, so these do not cover all migraine types. If the findings of this article can be confirmed in a larger population, it may potentially contribute to early diagnosis of migraine attacks.