Forest Adaptation to Climate Change along Steep Ecological Gradients: The Case of the Mediterranean-Temperate Transition in South-Western Europe

Forest tree species adaptation to climate across biomes: Building on the legacy of ecological genetics to anticipate responses to climate change

Intraspecific variation plays a critical role in extant and future forest responses to climate change. Forest tree species with wide climatic niches rely on the intraspecific variation resulting from genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to accommodate spatial and temporal climate variability. A centuries-old legacy of forest ecological genetics and provenance trials has provided a strong foundation upon which to continue building on this knowledge, which is critical to maintain climate-adapted forests. Our overall objective is to understand forest trees intraspecific responses to climate across species and biomes, while our specific objectives are to describe ecological genetics models used to build our foundational knowledge, summarize modeling approaches that have expanded the traditional toolset, and extensively review the literature from 1994 to 2021 to highlight the main contributions of this legacy and the new analyzes of provenance trials. We reviewed 103 studies comprising at least three common gardens, which covered 58 forest tree species, 28 of them with range-wide studies. Although studies using provenance trial data cover mostly commercially important forest tree species from temperate and boreal biomes, this synthesis provides a global overview of forest tree species adaptation to climate. We found that evidence for genetic adaptation to local climate is commonly present in the species studied (79%), being more common in conifers (87.5%) than in broadleaf species (67%). In 57% of the species, clines in fitness-related traits were associated with temperature variables, in 14% of the species with precipitation, and in 25% of the species with both. Evidence of adaptation lags was found in 50% of the species with range-wide studies. We conclude that ecological genetics models and analysis of provenance trial data provide excellent insights on intraspecific genetic variation, whereas the role and limits of phenotypic plasticity, which will likely determine the fate of extant forests, is vastly understudied.

Using Satellite NDVI Time-Series to Monitor Grazing Effects on Vegetation Productivity and Phenology in Heterogeneous Mediterranean Forests

The reintroduction of livestock grazing to regulate biomass load is being tested for large-scale restoration in Mediterranean landscapes affected by rural abandonment. Concurrently, there is a need to develop cost-effective methods to monitor such interventions. Here, we investigate if satellite data can be used to monitor the response of vegetation phenology and productivity to grazing disturbance in a heterogenous forest mosaic with herbaceous, shrub, and tree cover. We identify which vegetation seasonal metrics respond most to grazing disturbances and are relevant to monitoring efforts. The study follows a BACI (Before-After-Control-Impact) design applied to a grazing intervention in a Pyrenean oak forest (Quercus pyrenaica) in central Portugal. Using NDVI time-series from Sentinel-2 imagery for the period between June 2016 and June 2021, we observed that each type of vegetation exhibited a distinct phenology curve. Herbaceous vegetation was the most responsive to moderate grazing disturbances with respect to changes in phenology and productivity metrics, namely an anticipation of seasonal events. Results for shrubs and trees suggest a decline in peak productivity in grazed areas but no changes in phenology patterns. The techniques demonstrated in this study are relevant to a broad range of use cases in the large-scale monitoring of fine-grained heterogeneous landscapes.

Development of Semantic Maps of Vegetation Cover from UAV Images to Support Planning and Management in Fine-Grained Fire-Prone Landscapes

In Mediterranean landscapes, the encroachment of pyrophytic shrubs is a driver of more frequent and larger wildfires. The high-resolution mapping of vegetation cover is essential for sustainable land planning and the management for wildfire prevention. Here, we propose methods to simplify and automate the segmentation of shrub cover in high-resolution RGB images acquired by UAVs. The main contribution is a systematic exploration of the best practices to train a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a segmentation network architecture (U-Net) to detect shrubs in heterogeneous landscapes. Several semantic segmentation models were trained and tested in partitions of the provided data with alternative methods of data augmentation, patch cropping, rescaling and hyperparameter tuning (the number of filters, dropout rate and batch size). The most effective practices were data augmentation, patch cropping and rescaling. The developed classification model achieved an average F1 score of 0.72 on three separate test datasets even though it was trained on a relatively small training dataset. This study demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art CNNs to map fine-grained land cover patterns from RGB remote sensing data. Because model performance is affected by the quality of data and labeling, an optimal selection of pre-processing practices is a requisite to improve the results.

Global Change and Forest Disturbances in the Mediterranean Basin: Breakthroughs, Knowledge Gaps, and Recommendations

Forest ecosystems in the Mediterranean Basin are mostly situated in the north of the Basin (mesic). In the most southern and dry areas, the forest can only exist where topography and/or altitude favor a sufficient availability of water to sustain forest biomass. We have conducted a thorough review of recent literature (2000–2021) that clearly indicates large direct and indirect impacts of increasing drought conditions on the forests of the Mediterranean Basin, their changes in surface and distribution areas, and the main impacts they have suffered. We have focused on the main trends that emerge from the current literature and have highlighted the main threatens and management solution for the maintenance of these forests. The results clearly indicate large direct and indirect impacts of increasing drought conditions on the forests of the Mediterranean Basin. These increasing drought conditions together with over-exploitation, pest expansion, fire and soil degradation, are synergistically driving to forest regression and dieback in several areas of this Mediterranean Basin. These environmental changes have triggered responses in tree morphology, physiology, growth, reproduction, and mortality. We identified at least seven causes of the changes in the last three decades that have led to the current situation and that can provide clues for projecting the future of these forests: (i) The direct effect of increased aridity due to more frequent and prolonged droughts, which has driven Mediterranean forest communities to the limit of their capacity to respond to drought and escape to wetter sites, (ii) the indirect effects of drought, mainly by the spread of pests and fires, (iii) the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic activity associated with general environmental degradation, including soil degradation and the impacts of fire, species invasion and pollution, (iv) human pressure and intense management of water resources, (v) agricultural land abandonment in the northern Mediterranean Basin without adequate management of new forests, (vi) very high pressure on forested areas of northern Africa coupled with the demographic enhancement, the expansion of crops and higher livestock pressure, and the more intense and overexploitation of water resources uses on the remaining forested areas, and (vii) scarcity and inequality of human management and policies, depending on the national and/or regional governments and agencies, being unable to counteract the previous changes. We identified appropriate measures of management intervention, using the most adequate techniques and processes to counteract these impacts and thus to conserve the health, service capacity, and biodiversity of Mediterranean forests. Future policies should, moreover, promote research to improve our knowledge of the mechanisms of, and the effects on, nutrient and carbon plant-soil status concurrent with the impacts of aridity and leaching due to the effects of current changes. Finally, we acknowledge the difficulty to obtain an accurate quantification of the impacts of increasing aridity rise that warrants an urgent investment in more focused research to further develop future tools in order to counteract the negative effects of climate change on Mediterranean forests.

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

How populations of long-living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre-adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range-wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness-related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.

A fuzzy logic decision support model for climate-driven biomass loss risk in western Oregon and Washington

Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) projections are often put forth to aid resource managers in climate change-related decision making. However, interpreting model results and understanding their uncertainty can be difficult. Sources of uncertainty include embedded assumptions about atmospheric CO2 levels, uncertain climate projections driving DGVMs, and DGVM algorithm selection. For western Oregon and Washington, we implemented an Environmental Evaluation Modeling System (EEMS) decision support model using MC2 DGVM results to characterize biomass loss risk. MC2 results were driven by climate projections from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs), under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, with and without assumed fire suppression, for three different time periods. We produced maps of mean, minimum, and maximum biomass loss risk and uncertainty for each RCP / +/- fire suppression / time period. We characterized the uncertainty due to RCP, fire suppression, and climate projection choice. Finally, we evaluated whether fire or climate maladaptation mortality was the dominant driver of risk for each model run. The risk of biomass loss generally increases in current high biomass areas within the study region through time. The pattern of increased risk is generally south to north and upslope into the Coast and Cascade mountain ranges and along the coast. Uncertainty from climate future choice is greater than that attributable to RCP or +/- fire suppression. Fire dominates as the driving factor for biomass loss risk in more model runs than mortality. This method of interpreting DGVM results and the associated uncertainty provides managers with data in a form directly applicable to their concerns and should prove helpful in adaptive management planning.

Analysing eucalypt expansion in Portugal as a fire-regime modifier

Eucalypts, especially blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus), have been extensively planted in Portugal and nowadays dominate most of its forest landscapes. Large-scale forestation programs can intensify fire activity, and blue gum plantations are often viewed as highly flammable due to the nature and structure of the fuel complex. The role of eucalypt plantations in the fire regime of Mediterranean climate regions is increasingly debated following the recent catastrophic wildfires in Portugal and elsewhere. In this study we examined the effects of eucalypt forestation on burned area (BA), fire size, and fire severity in Portugal. This was based on fire and vegetation mapping and statistics, fire weather data, satellite imagery, and national forest inventory data. Eucalypt BA comprised an average of 12.5% of total BA (1980-2017) and did not increase over time and with eucalypt expansion. Eucalypt metrics did not explain interannual BA variability after accounting for the effects of other variables. Forest fires started within eucalypt stands were the least likely to become large, and large fire size was irresponsive to forest composition. Likewise, forest type was a generally minor influence in mega-fire severity and accounted for just 1.4-8.6% of surface fuel-hazard metrics variation. In general, large-scale conversion of maritime pine to eucalypt stands (1970-2015) implied lower fuel accumulation. Fire activity results are consistent with fuel hazard results and express trade-offs between short-rotation forestry and fire behaviour in blue gum stands, with high spotting potential versus modest crown fire likelihood. We found no support for the contention of a modified fire regime as a result of eucalypt forestation in Portugal, but the rising undermanaged and abandoned blue gum estate, especially after large-fire seasons, is a concern for the future. However, it remains to be determined whether post-fire eucalypt regrowth is a higher fire threat than native vegetation in the same context.

A Multifactorial Approach to Value Supporting Ecosystem Services in Spanish Forests and Its Implications in a Warming World

Carbon storage and sequestration are key ecosystem services critical to human well-being and biodiversity conservation. In a warming context, the quantification and valuation of carbon storage and sequestration is important in ensuring that effective incentives are put in place to tackle climate change. The quantification and valuation of ES such as carbon storage and sequestration requires the calculus of actual values and prediction, however, it usually does not include key processes that can indirectly influence carbon dynamics (i.e., risk, conservation or management). Here, we define a multifactorial approach to value ecosystem services based on two stages: (1) a biophysical approximation that integrates yearly supporting ecosystem services (i.e., quantification of carbon storage and sequestration) and (2) a weighing approach including factors that indirectly influence carbon storage and sequestration or that deserve specific attention (i.e., risk, conservation or management factors). The quantification of carbon storage and sequestration indicated that Spanish forests store on average 43 Mg C ha−1 and sequestrate on average 1.02 Mg C ha−1 year−1. Forest structure was a strong determinant of carbon storage and sequestration in Iberian forests, hence there was a strong spatial variation in the carbon sink. We adapted the weighting values to a financial cap and the monetary value of carbon increased more than four times when the weighting factors were taken into account. Finally, we argue that a multifactorial approach to value supporting ecosystem services incorporating aspects related to conservation and risk prevention can facilitate ecosystem service valuation and assist policy makers and stakeholders to establish payment service policies.