Climatic Suitability of the Geographic Distribution of Stipa breviflora in Chinese Temperate Grassland under Climate Change

Predicted changes in distribution and grazing value of Stipa-based plant communities across the Eurasian steppe

The Eurasian steppe is one of the world's largest continuous areas of grassland and has an important role in supporting livestock grazing, the most ubiquitous land use on Earth. However, the Eurasian steppe is under threat, from irrational grazing utilization, climate change, and resource exploitation. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the current and future distribution of Stipa-dominated plant communities in three important steppe subregions; the Tibetan Alpine, Central Asian, and Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregions. We combined this with an assessment of the grazing value of 22 Stipa species, the dominant grassland species in the area, to predict how grazing value might change under future climate change predictions. We found that the effects of changing climates on grazing values differed across the three subregions. Grazing values increased in the Tibetan alpine steppe and to a lesser extent in Central Asia, but there were few changes in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion. The response of different species to changing climates varied with environmental variables. Finally, our trait-based assessment of Stipa species revealed variations in grazing value, and this had major effects on the overall grazing value of the region. Our results reinforce the importance of trait-based characteristics of steppe plant species, how these traits affect grazing value, and how grazing values will change across different areas of the Eurasian steppe. Our work provides valuable insights into how different species will respond to changing climates and grazing, with important implications for sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.

Genomic insights into genetic diversity and local adaptation of a dominant desert steppe feather grass, Stipa breviflora Griseb

Investigating the genetic mechanisms of local adaptation is critical to understanding how species adapt to heterogeneous environments. In the present study, we analyzed restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) data in order to explore genetic diversity, genetic structure, genetic differentiation, and local adaptation of Stipa breviflora. In total, 135 individual plants were sequenced and 25,786 polymorphic loci were obtained. We found low genetic diversity (He = 0.1284) within populations of S. breviflora. Four genetic clusters were identified along its distribution range. The Mantel test, partial Mantel test, and multiple matrix regression with randomization (MMRR) indicate that population differentiation was caused by both geographic distance and environmental factors. Through the F_ST outlier test and environmental association analysis (EAA), 113 candidate loci were identified as putatively adaptive loci. RPK2 and CPRF1, which are associated with meristem maintenance and light responsiveness, respectively, were annotated. To explore the effects of climatic factors on genetic differentiation and local adaptation of S. breviflora, gradient forest (GF) analysis was applied to 25,786 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 113 candidate loci, respectively. The results showed that both temperature and precipitation affected the genetic differentiation of S. breviflora, and precipitation was strongly related to local adaptation. Our study provides a theoretical basis for understanding the local adaptation of S. breviflora.

De novo assembly, annotation, marker discovery, and genetic diversity of the Stipa breviflora Griseb. (Poaceae) response to grazing

Grassland is one of the most widely-distributed ecosystems on Earth and provides a variety of ecosystem services. Grasslands, however, currently suffer from severe degradation induced by human activities, overgrazing pressure and climate change. In the present study, we explored the transcriptome response of Stipa breviflora, a dominant species in the desert steppe, to grazing through transcriptome sequencing, the development of simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers, and analysis of genetic diversity. De novo assembly produced 111,018 unigenes, of which 88,164 (79.41%) unigenes were annotated. A total of 686 unigenes showed significantly different expression under grazing, including 304 and 382 that were upregulated and downregulated, respectively. These differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were significantly enriched in the “alpha-linolenic acid metabolism” and “plant-pathogen interaction” pathways. Based on transcriptome sequencing data, we developed eight SSR molecular markers and investigated the genetic diversity of S. breviflora in grazed and ungrazed sites. We found that a relatively high level of S. breviflora genetic diversity occurred under grazing. The findings of genes that improve resistance to grazing are helpful for the restoration, conservation, and management of desert steppe.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (Valsa mali) in China under Climate Change

Apple valsa canker (AVC), caused by Valsa mali, is a serious wood disease of apple trees. The pathogen decays the barks and branches of trees and ruins entire orchards under severe conditions. However, studies have rarely focused on the suitable habitat of the pathogen, especially on a relatively large scale. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt 3.4.1, Princeton, NJ, USA) to predict the distribution of V. mali using climate factors, topographic factors, and soil factors under current and future climate scenarios. We measured the area of suitable habitat, change ratio of the suitable habitat area, increase and decrease maps under climate change, direction and distance of range shifts from the present to the end of the 21st century, and the contribution of environmental variables. The results showed that the area of suitable habitat is currently 183.46 × 104 km2 in China, among which 27.54% is moderately suitable habitat (MSH) and 13.13% is highly suitable habitat (HSH). Compared with current distribution, the area of MSH and HSH increases in future and the change ratio are positive. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3–70 is considered the optimum climate scenario for V. mali. The suitability of V. mali increased mainly in Northwest, North, and Northeast China. V. mali will shift to the northwest with climate change. The shift distance optimistically increased from the SSP1–26 to the SSP5–85, with the biggest shift distance of 758.44 km in the 2090s under the SSP5–85 scenario. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was the most critical climate factor affecting the distribution of the pathogen, and topographic factors played a more important role than soil factors. This study demonstrates that the potential distribution of V. mali is vitally affected by climate change and provides a method for large–scale research on the distribution of pathogens.

Seed germination and early seedling survival of the invasive species Prosopis juliflora (Fabaceae) depend on habitat and seed dispersal mode in the Caatinga dry forest

Background

Biological invasion is one of the main threats to tropical biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Prosopis juliflora (Sw) DC. (Fabales: Fabaceae: Caesalpinioideae) was introduced in the Caatinga dry forest of Northeast Brazil at early 1940s and successfully spread across the region. As other invasive species, it may benefit from the soils and seed dispersal by livestock. Here we examine how seed dispersal ecology and soil conditions collectively affect seed germination, early seedling performance and consequently the P. juliflora invasive potential.

Methods

Seed germination, early seedling survival, life expectancy and soil attributes were examined in 10 plots located across three habitats (flooding plain, alluvial terrace and plateau) into a human-modified landscape of the Caatinga dry forest (a total of 12,000 seeds). Seeds were exposed to four seed dispersal methods: deposition on the soil surface, burial in the soil, passed through cattle (Boss taurus) digestive tracts and mixed with cattle manure and passed through mule (Equus africanus asinus × Equus ferus caballus) digestive tracts and mixed with mule manure. Seeds and seedlings were monitored through a year and their performance examined with expectancy tables.

Results

Soils differed among habitats, particularly its nutrient availability, texture and water with finely-textured and more fertile soils in the flooding plain. Total seed germination was relatively low (14.5%), with the highest score among seeds buried in the flooding plain (47.4 ± 25.3%). Seed dispersal by cattle and mule also positively impacted seed germination. Early seedling survival rate of P. juliflora was dramatically reduced with few seedlings still alive elapsed a year. Survival rate was highest in the first 30 days and declined between 30 and 60 days with stabilization at 70 days after germination in all seed treatments and habitats. However, survival and life expectancy were higher in the flooding plain at 75 days and lower in the plateau. Prosopis juliflora seedling survival and life expectancy were higher in the case seeds were mixed with cattle manure.

Synthesis

Prosopis juliflora seeds and seedlings are sensitive to water stress and habitat desiccation. Therefore, they benefit from the humid soils often present across human-disturbed flooding plains. This plant also benefits from seed deposition/dispersal by livestock in these landscapes, since cattle manure represents a nutrient-rich and humid substrate for both seeds and seedlings. The quality of the seed dispersal service varies among livestock species, but this key mutualism between exotic species is due to the arillate, hard-coated and palatable seeds. Prosopis juliflora traits allow this species to take multiple benefits from human presence and thus operating as a human commensal.

MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

Influence of Anthropogenic Noise for Predicting Cinereous Vulture Nest Distribution

Natural landscapes are increasingly under anthropogenic pressures, and concern about human impacts on wildlife populations is becoming particularly relevant in the case of natural areas affected by roads. The expansion of road networks is considered among the main factors threatening biodiversity due to their potential for disturbing natural ecosystems on large scales. Indeed, traffic noise pollution reduces the quantity and the quality of natural habitats, and umbrella species are frequently used as indicators of natural ecosystem health. In this sense, there is a variety of GIS-based ecological modeling tools that allow evaluation of the factors that influence species distributions in order to accurately predict habitat selection. In this study, we have combined the use of noise modeling tools and maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for Cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) nesting habitat selection within a mountainous forest in Spain. As a result, we found that spatial negative influence of roads on wildlife due to road traffic disturbance may have been traditionally overestimated when it has been inferred from distance measurements of wildlife behavior in road surroundings instead of from considering road traffic noise level exposure. In addition, we found a potential risk threshold for cinereous vulture breeding around roads, which ties in with a Leq24h level of 40 dB(A). This may be a useful indicator for assessing the potential impact of human activities on an umbrella species such as, for instance, the cinereous vulture, whose breeding does not take place where road traffic Leq24h levels are higher than 40 dB(A).

Simulating the effects of climate change across the geographical distribution of two medicinal plants in the genus Nardostachys

Background

The medicinal plants of Radix et Rhizoma Nardostachyos include Nardostachys jatamansi and N. chinensis. Traditionally, the two plants have been used to treat many diseases. Because of their special aroma, they are also commonly used in the food and cosmetics industry. Recently, N. jatamansi and N. chinensis have been overexploited due to their economic importance, resulting in a sharp decline in their wild resources. Predicting potential distributions of the genus Nardostachys under different climate scenarios and understanding its preferred habitat are of great significance for their conservation, artificial cultivation, and assessment of their value.

Methods

The Maxent model was used to predict the potential geographical distributions of the genus Nardostachys under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s. These data were used to study the effects of climate variables.

Results

The results show that the potential distribution of the two species will increase, thus more suitable habitats will be present in China. The suitable habitat for N. chinensis presents a relatively stable growth compared to N. jatamansi. In addition, precipitation plays a crucial role in modeling the effects of climate change on the genus Nardostachys. This study provides theoretical guidance for the cultivation of N. chinensis.