Travel Demand Prediction during COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational and Working Trips at the University of Padova

Evolvement patterns of usage in a medium-sized bike-sharing system during the COVID-19 pandemic

The global outbreak of COVID-19 has fundamentally reshaped human mobility. Compared to other modes of transportation, how spatiotemporal patterns of urban bike-sharing have evolved since the outbreak is yet to be fully understood, especially for bike-sharing systems operating on a smaller scale. Taking Pittsburgh as a case study, we examined the changes in spatiotemporal dynamics of shared bike usage from 2019 to 2021. By distinguishing between weekday and weekend usage, we found different temporal patterns between trip volume and duration, and distinct spatial patterns of within- and between-region rides with respect to naturally separated regions. Overall, the results illustrate the resilience and the vital role of bike-sharing during the pandemic, consistent with previous observations on bike-sharing systems of a larger scale. Our study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of bike-sharing that calls for more research on smaller-scale systems under disruptive events such as the pandemic, which can greatly inform decision-makers from smaller sized cities and enable future studies to compare across different urban regions or modes of transportation.

Potential of Bike Sharing During Disruptive Public Health Crises: A Review of COVID-19 Impacts

With public transport (PT) continuing to be negatively affected by the coronavirus pandemic and private car usage surging, alternative modes need to be considered. In this study, we review the available evidence (from academic and gray literature sources) on the performance of bike sharing systems (BSSs) during COVID-19 around the world, with the goal of assessing their potential contribution to improving the resilience of transport systems during pandemics and similar disruptive events. We found BSS usage followed a decrease-rebound pattern, with BSSs overall sustaining lower ridership declines and faster recoveries compared with PT. During lockdowns especially, the average duration of BSS trips increased, following a rise in casual users and leisure trips, while commuting trips decreased. Evidence has also been found for a possible modal shift from some PT users to BSSs, with a decline in the share of multimodal trips conducted between PT and BSSs. Bike sharing is perceived as safer than other shared modes (e.g., PT, taxis, and ride-hailing/sharing) but as having a higher infection risk than personal modes (e.g., private car, walking, and personal bike). Moreover, the BSS was an important transport alternative for essential workers, with several operators providing waivers especially to healthcare staff, leading to ridership increases near healthcare facilities and in deprived neighborhoods. Findings from this research support policies for promoting bike sharing, namely through fee reductions, system expansions, and symbiotic integration with PT, as BSSs can increase the sustainability and resilience of transport systems during disruptive public health events like COVID-19.

Estimating Mode of Transport in Daily Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic Using a Multinomial Logistic Regression Model

At the beginning of 2020 there was a spinning point in the travel behavior of people around the world because of the pandemic and its consequences. This paper analyzes the specific behavior of travelers commuting to work or school during the COVID-19 pandemic based on a sample of 2000 respondents from two countries. We obtained data from an online survey, applying multinomial regression analysis. The results demonstrate the multinomial model with an accuracy of almost 70% that estimates the most used modes of transport (walking, public transport, car) based on independent variables. The respondents preferred the car as the most frequently used means of transport. However, commuters without car prefer public transport to walking. This prediction model could be a tool for planning and creating transport policy, especially in exceptional cases such as the limitation of public transport activities. Therefore, predicting travel behavior is essential for policymaking based on people's travel needs.

An evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 safety measures in public transit spaces on riders' Worry of virus contraction

The coronavirus pandemic has brought about global change in travel behavior. Transit ridership volumes have dropped to record lows. Concerning environmental, health, and social consequences lie in store if transit networks are not able to regain a substantial portion of pre-pandemic users. Transit providers have implemented several interventions aimed at both slowing the spread of the virus and retaining riders as travel restrictions lift. While the effectiveness of these measures has been evaluated with respect to spread rate reduction, little consideration has been given to their impact on riders' feelings of worry regarding virus contraction. By deploying a photo-simulation approach in a randomized control trial, this study finds that level of compliance with safety measures and the conditions of transit spaces themselves significantly impact riders' levels of worry. Given these findings, a series of recommendations are made regarding compliance practices that are expected to lessen rider worry regarding the risks of COVID-19 infection.

Desire to work from home: Results of an Irish study

Large levels of working from home (WfH) were induced by social distancing and viral control measures undertaken to mitigate the Covid-19 pandemic. Representing an unpredicted change in the way large amounts of people undertake their day to day work, it is expected that the legacy of this event, in terms of significant alterations to work and commuting patterns will have wide-ranging and long-lasting results. However, how persistent the current trends will be, remains an open question. Therefore, there is a need for a well-represented study of employees' preferences for the post-pandemic future and focus on white-collar workers and their well-established attitudes considering their flexibility in terms of workplace arrangements. This paper presents the results of a survey undertaken in Ireland in the summer of 2021 gauging the desire of office workers to WfH, the format that most appeals to them, the consideration of home relocation based on the ability to WfH, and the factors that may explain such preferences. Results indicate high levels of desire to WfH, either full time or partially, with increased desire to WfH positively correlated to pre-pandemic commute length, and to a perceived increase in work productivity and quality of non-work life as a result of time spent WfH. Additionally, a number of workers state that they may consider home relocation based upon the ability to WfH. These results should be interpreted as the desire to WfH or total addressable market that exists, rather than the likely levels of WfH that will be observed post-Covid.

Applications of discrete choice experiments in COVID-19 research: Disparity in survey qualities between health and transport fields

Published choice experiments linked to various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic are analysed in a rapid review. The aim is to (i) document the diversity of topics as well as their temporal and geographical patterns of emergence, (ii) compare various elements of design quality across different sectors of applied economics, and (iii) identify potential signs of convergent validity across findings of comparable experiments. Of the N = 43 published choice experiments during the first two years of the pandemic, the majority identifies with health applications (n = 30), followed by transport-related applications (n = 10). Nearly 100,000 people across the world responded to pandemic-related discrete choice surveys. Within health applications, while the dominant theme, up until June 2020, was lockdown relaxation and tracing measures, the focus shifted abruptly to vaccine preference since then. Geographical origins of the health surveys were not diverse. Nearly 50% of all health surveys were conducted in only three countries, namely US, China and The Netherlands. Health applications exhibited stronger pre-testing and larger sample sizes compared to transport applications. Limited signs of convergent validity were identifiable. Within some applications, issues of temporal instability as well as hypothetical bias attributable to social desirability, protest response or policy consequentiality seemed likely to have affected the findings. Nevertheless, very few of the experiments implemented measures of hypothetical bias mitigation and those were limited to health studies. Our main conclusion is that swift administration of pandemic-related choice experiments has overall resulted in certain degrees of compromise in study quality, but this has been more so the case in relation to transport topics than health topics.

Potential long-term effects of Covid-19 on telecommuting and environment: An Italian case-study

To contain the sudden spread of SARS-CoV-2, many governments encouraged people to work from home, generating an unprecedented diffusion of this activity. Furthermore, Covid-19 has induced drastic changes in everyday life and travel habits, which might persist in the future. This paper aims to understand and estimate the potential long-term impacts of telework on the environment due to the pandemic, by analyzing factors affecting the frequency of telecommuting, the mode choice for traveling to work, and pollutant emissions generated by these trips. Data from a mobility survey administered in Padova (Italy) was used. Results indicate that Covid-19 could cause a rebound effect reversing the positive impacts of working from home, since, even if the number of trips could be reduced, many shifts towards non-sustainable travel modes could occur. The promotion of telework should be combined with measures fostering sustainable travel habits to pave the way towards a future green mobility.

ANN-Based traffic volume prediction models in response to COVID-19 imposed measures

Many countries around the globe have imposed several response measures to suppress the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 2020. These measures have impacted routine daily activities, along with their impact on economy, education, social and recreational activities, and domestic and international travels. Intuitively, the different imposed policies and measures have indirect impacts on urban traffic mobility. As a result of those imposed measures and policies, urban traffic flows have changed. However, those impacts are neither measured nor quantified. Therefore, estimating the impact of these combined yet different policies and measures on urban traffic flows is a challenging task. This paper demonstrates the development of an artificial neural networks (ANN) model which correlates the impact of the imposed response measure and other factors on urban traffic flows. The results show that the adopted ANN model is capable of mapping the complex relationship between traffic flows and the response measures with a high level of accuracy and good performance. The predicted values are closed to the observed ones. They are clustered around the regression line, with a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) of 0.9761. Furthermore, the developed model can be generalized to determine the anticipated demand levels resulted from imposing any of the response measures in the post-pandemic era. This model can be used to manage traffic during mega-events. It can be also utilized for disaster or emergency situations, where traffic flow estimates are highly required for operational and planning purposes.

Spatiotemporal evolving patterns of bike-share mobility networks and their associations with land-use conditions before and after the COVID-19 outbreak

Recent months have seen ever-increasing levels of confirmed COVID-19 cases despite the accelerated adoption of vaccines. In the wake of the pandemic, travel patterns of individuals change as well. Understanding the changes in biking behaviors during evolving COVID-19 situations is a primary goal of this paper. It investigated usage patterns of the bike-share system in Singapore before, during, and after local authorities imposed lockdown measures. It also correlated the centrality attributes of biking mobility networks of different timestamps with land-use conditions. The results show that total ridership surprisingly climbed by 150% during the lockdown, compared with the pre-pandemic level. Biking mobility graphs became more locally clustered and polycentric as the epidemic develop. There existed a positive and sustained spatial autocorrelation between centrality measures and regions with high residential densities or levels of the land-use mixture. This study suggests that bike-share systems may serve as an alternative mode to fulfill mobility needs when public transit services are restricted due to lockdown policies. Shared-micromobility services have the potential to facilitate a disease-resilient transport system as societies may have to coexist with COVID in the future.

Risk perception and travel satisfaction associated with the use of public transport in the time of COVID-19. The case of Turin, Italy

The present study examined the association between risk perception and travel satisfaction related to the use of public transport (PT) during COVID-19 pandemic in Turin, Italy. A total of 448 PT users took part in an online survey conducted from January to March 2021. It investigated safety and risk perception related to the use of PT, and the users' subjective experience, measured through the Satisfaction with Travel Scale (STS). These perceptions were compared for three time scenarios: before the pandemic, during the pandemic, and in the future at the end of the pandemic emergency. Results showed that COVID-19 influenced respondents risk perception both during the pandemic and in their projections about the future, especially for females. The risk of contagion from COVID-19 is perceived as higher inside a PT vehicle than in the adjacent/waiting spaces. Regarding travel satisfaction, the overall scores of the STS indicated that the pandemic has impacted reported well-being while travelling, both now and in the future. The dimension of activation shifted towards the negative pole and did not indicate a return to risk perception before the pandemic levels at the end of the crisis (especially for females). Respondents reported a significant decrease in their level of pleasure and satisfaction during the pandemic, but expect that in the future these levels will go back to the levels previously experienced. Regarding travel satisfaction, PT users aged 36 to 50 years reported the highest level of satisfaction, while younger users (18 to 35 years) reported the lowest degree of satisfaction in all three time scenarios. Overall, the results clearly pinpoint that health-related perceived risk is becoming a key determinant for PT use. Within this context, different dimensions of travel satisfaction proved to be impacted differently by the pandemic, for both current and future scenarios.

Changes in People’s Mobility Behavior in Greece after the COVID-19 Outbreak

The lockdown and social distancing policies to reduce COVID-19 spread and perceived safety threats of COVID-19 significantly affected people’s travel behavior. Greece has been suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, and people’s mobility behavior has been greatly affected. This study aims at: (1) exploring the variations in individuals’ trip frequencies by mode and purpose before and after the COVID-19 outbreak; (2) understanding the effects of individual differences (i.e., sociodemographic details) and perceptions towards COVID-19 (i.e., the perceived threats of COVID-19) on people’s mobility behavior changes after the outbreak; (3) underlining the individuals’ perceptions of the COVID-19 threat on the willingness of public transportation usage. Overall, 403 responses were collected in late 2020. A series of random parameter Probit modeling results reveal multiple individual and perception factors affecting the changes in mobility behavior in Greece. The results from structural equation modeling indicate that perceived COVID-19 threats affect the attitudes and subjective norms towards people’s intentions to use public transportation. The results from this study provide valuable insights for transportation authorities to develop effective strategies to manage traffic during the spread of disease for a possible future epidemic.

Influence of COVID-19 Mobility-Restricting Policies on Individual Travel Behavior in Malaysia

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in new postpandemic travel patterns as a result of the stay-at-home policies and restricted movement orders imposed by the Malaysian government. The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes in individual travel behavior after the government imposed a series of lockdowns, also known as movement control orders (MCO). From March to April 2021, a questionnaire survey was distributed throughout Malaysia, and 435 complete responses were collected. Results indicated that the respondents predominantly chose private cars for various traveling purposes during the pandemic. When choosing a travel mode during the pandemic, married respondents and essential workers placed a significantly higher priority on pandemic-related - items such as cleanliness, infection concern, social distance, and wearing face masks, compared to single respondents and nonessential workers. Binary logistic regression models were developed to estimate individuals’ propensity to make trips for different purposes, i.e., work/study, social activities, recreational activities, and religious activities. Results indicated that essential workers were nearly three times more likely than the general population to make a work trip during the pandemic. Regarding social and recreational trips, males were more likely to make such types of trips as compared to females. Furthermore, those who perceived a higher risk of infection were less likely to make social and recreational trips. Regarding religious trips, males were significantly more likely to make such trips during the pandemic as compared to females. In addition, Muslims had significantly higher odds of making a trip for religious purposes during the pandemic. The findings of this study could be useful in transportation planning when considering travel restrictions during pandemics based on peoples’ travel purposes and mode choices.

Impact of the COVID-19 on the Destination Choices of Hungarian Tourists: A Comparative Analysis

The pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) has transformed the tourism sector to an unprecedented extent, creating new challenges and new development paths. Although the recovery of tourism is fraught with uncertainties, the changes in tourists’ travel habits offer a unique opportunity for tourism to recover in a way that respects the principles of sustainable development. Several international studies suggest that the pandemic has significantly transformed tourists’ travel habits and destination choices, making them more environmentally conscious and shifting their preferences towards inland destinations close to nature. To test these claims, we examined tourists’ destination choices and the factors influencing them in a sample of 500 respondents in Hungary before the pandemic and after the restrictions on travel, businesses, gatherings, and mask requirements were lifted in the summer of 2021. Our results show that there was no significant change in the destination choices of the tourists surveyed. The main influences were the aspects of safety and comfort; the consideration of environmental concerns, despite our assumptions, did not play a significant role.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Air Transportation Network in the United States, Europe, and China

The air transportation industry has undergone unprecedented changes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, as measured in terms of flight cancellations, aircraft retirements, airline bailouts, and disconnection of worldwide communities. In this study, we performed a cross-comparison of the impact COVID-19 had on three aviation centers of the world—the United States, Europe, and China. Methodologically, we analyzed the air transportation system as complex networks and by using time series analysis. We discovered that the peak of COVID-19 impact was around April/May 2020, followed by a strong recovery mostly in domestic subsystems. We found a homogeneous impact on the United States, a strong heterogeneous impact on Europe, and a rather short-term impact on China. Domestic flight connectivity recovered much faster than international flight connectivity, particularly for the Chinese air transportation system. Our study provided a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the COVID-19 impact on air transportation for these three major regions, augmented by references to the rich scientific literature on this subject. We hope that our work opens up pathways to a better understanding and a higher degree of preparedness for future pandemics.

COVID-19 Countermeasures and Passengers’ Confidence of Urban Rail Travel in Bangkok

Rail transit systems around the world have been suffering from heavily reduced ridership due to reduced capacity for social distancing and passengers’ concern over the risk of COVID-19 infection. Various countermeasures were implemented to reduce the COVID-19 risk so that passengers felt safe to travel on rail. The objectives of this study were to evaluate COVID-19 countermeasures of Bangkok’s urban rail from passengers’ viewpoints and examine its influence on passenger’s confidence. The background of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand and the rail countermeasures implemented in Bangkok were summarized. The data were obtained from an interview survey of 1105 railway passengers conducted at the stations during the second wave of the pandemic. Factor analyses and structural equation modeling were conducted. The results revealed that social distancing was not satisfied by the passengers but adversely caused inconvenience and increased infection risk when the station or rail were congested. On the other hand, the passenger temperature check, face mask enforcement, and hand sanitization countermeasures were found to highly and positively contribute to passengers’ confidence. Contact tracing application was also found to raise awareness and confidence. The findings provided insights for rail authorities and related agencies to effectively implement the countermeasures that would be practically and financially sustainable.

Factors Affecting the Growth of E-Shopping over the COVID-19 Era in Hanoi, Vietnam

In response to insufficient understanding of the determinants of change in e-shopping behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries, this paper used the data from 355 respondents, collected in Hanoi during the social distancing period (April 2020), to explore the factors associated with shopping online more frequently (i.e., representing the growth of e-shopping) for five product types (food, medical products, clothing, electronics, and books) in Hanoi, Vietnam. The results showed that nearly 80% of the respondents engaged in e-shopping more frequently than they did before the outbreak of COVID-19. As regards shopping online more frequently in general (i.e., for at least one product type), females were more likely to do so. In-store shopping enjoyment and a decrease in income were a facilitator and a deterrent, respectively. Regarding specific product types, completely working from home had a positive association with more frequent e-purchasing for electronics. Fear of disease encouraged higher frequencies of e-shopping for food and medical products. Notably, the shortage of physical supply was not a determinant of buying any product type online more frequently. As for the implications of our findings, supporting and encouraging low-income shoppers, older persons, and females to engage in e-shopping is necessary to limit the detrimental effects of the pandemic on their lives. The growth of internet purchasing expresses a need to manage the development of urban delivery services, to limit the uncontrolled proliferation of motorcycles. E-shopping requires delivery to complete the online-to-offline process; therefore, protecting the health of delivery drivers to ensure the safety of the whole online shopping process would be necessary.

Mobility Trends before and after the Pandemic Outbreak: Analyzing the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona through the Lens of Equality and Sustainability

The spatial arrangement of a metropolis is of utmost importance to carry out daily activities, which are constrained by space and time. Accessibility is not only shaped by the spatial and temporal dimension, but it is also defined by individual characteristics, such as gender, impairments, or socioeconomic characteristics of the citizens living or commuting in this area. This study analyzes mobility trends and patterns in the metropolitan area of Barcelona before and after the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, with special emphasis on gender and equality. The study draws on multiple sources of information; however, two main datasets are analyzed: two traditional travel surveys from the transport metropolitan area of Barcelona and two coming from smartphone data. The results show that gender plays a relevant role when analyzing mobility patterns, as already highlighted in other studies, but, after the pandemic outbreak, some population groups were more likely to change their mobility patterns, for example, highly educated population groups and those with higher income. This study also highlights that e-activities may shape new mobility patterns and living conditions for some population segments, but some activities cannot be replaced by IT technologies. For all these reasons, city and transport planning should foster sustainable development policies, which will provide the maximum benefit for society.