Modeling Framework to Evaluate Vaccine Strategies against the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jurisdiction-level costs of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination program in the United States, December 20, 2020-May 31, 2021

This study aimed to quantify U.S. jurisdiction-level costs related to the COVID-19 Vaccination Program by estimating the per-dose-administered cost during December 20, 2020-May 31, 2021, from a combined federal and local government perspective. Costs were limited to vaccine purchase, administration (including operations and wastage), and local redistribution by jurisdictions. Data were collected through publicly available sources, published literature, and a survey of 62 jurisdictions (38 responded). A total of 284.6 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine were distributed to jurisdictions during the study period, of which 284.2 million doses were administered, and 0.4 million doses were wasted. The estimated cost per-dose-administered among the 38 jurisdictions that responded to study survey was $57.45 and imputed cost across all jurisdictions was $63.11. The findings on jurisdiction-level cost per-dose-administered and vaccination cost during the initial period of U.S. COVID-19 Vaccination Program, when demand exceeded supply, may be considered in future pandemic preparedness planning.

Ensuring safety and efficacy in combination products: regulatory challenges and best practices

Combination products, amalgamating drugs, biologics, and medical devices, have revolutionized the healthcare landscape with their potential for innovative therapies. However, the intersection of diverse components within these products presents a complex regulatory environment, demanding rigorous attention to safety and efficacy. This article delves into the intricate landscape of regulatory considerations, safety, and efficacy assessments pertaining to combination products-a category at the intersection of drugs, devices, and biologics. The regulatory framework, primarily governed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), necessitates a nuanced classification determining the regulatory pathway. Collaboration between diverse regulatory centers, such as the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) and the Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH), underscores the integrated approach required for these innovative healthcare solutions. Safety considerations unravel the potential risks and adverse events associated with combining diverse components, emphasizing the need for robust risk assessment and mitigation strategies. The evaluation of efficacy involves sophisticated methodologies, clinical trials, and post-market surveillance, with recent advancements incorporating digital technologies. This comprehensive exploration aims to contribute to the evolving understanding and best practices in the regulatory and scientific realms, fostering collaboration and innovation in the development and assessment of combination products.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 intervention policies using a mathematical model: an optimal control approach

COVID-19 is an infectious disease that causes millions of deaths worldwide, and it is the principal leading cause of morbidity and mortality in all nations. Although the governments of developed and developing countries are enforcing their universal control strategies, more precise and cost-effective single or combination interventions are required to control COVID-19 outbreaks. Using proper optimal control strategies with appropriate cost-effectiveness analysis is important to simulate, examine, and forecast the COVID-19 transmission phase. In this study, we developed a COVID-19 mathematical model and considered two important features including direct link between vaccination and latently population, and practical healthcare cost by separation of infections into Mild and Critical cases. We derived basic reproduction numbers and performed mesh and contour plots to explore the impact of different parameters on COVID-19 dynamics. Our model fitted and calibrated with number of cases of the COVID-19 data in Bangladesh as a case study to determine the optimal combinations of interventions for particular scenarios. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying single and combinations of three intervention strategies, including transmission control, treatment, and vaccination, all within the optimal control framework of the single-intervention policies; enhanced transmission control is the most cost-effective and prompt in declining the COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh. Our finding recommends that a three-intervention strategy that integrates transmission control, treatment, and vaccination is the most cost-effective compared to single and double intervention techniques and potentially reduce the overall infections. Other policies can be implemented to control COVID-19 depending on the accessibility of funds and policymakers' judgments.

Modeling a sustainable vaccine supply chain for a healthcare system

This study develops a vaccine supply chain (VSC) to ensure sustainable distribution during a global crisis in a developing economy. In this study, a multi-objective mixed-integer programming (MIP) model is formulated to develop the VSC, ensuring the entire network's economic performance. This is achieved by minimizing the overall cost of vaccine distribution and ensuring environmental and social sustainability by minimizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and maximizing job opportunities in the entire network. The shelf-life of vaccines and the uncertainty associated with demand and supply chain (SC) parameters are also considered in this study to ensure the robustness of the model. To solve the model, two recently developed metaheuristics-namely, the multi-objective social engineering optimizer (MOSEO) and multi-objective feasibility enhanced particle swarm optimization (MOFEPSO) methods-are used, and their results are compared. Further, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) model has been integrated into the optimization model to determine the best solution from a set of non-dominated solutions (NDSs) that prioritize environmental sustainability. The results are analyzed in the context of the Bangladeshi coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine distribution systems. Numerical illustrations reveal that the MOSEO-TOPSIS model performs substantially better in designing the network than the MOFEPSO-TOPSIS model. Furthermore, the solution from MOSEO results in achieving better environmental sustainability than MOFEPSO with the same resources. Results also reflect that the proposed MOSEO-TOPSIS can help policymakers establish a VSC during a global crisis with enhanced economic, environmental, and social sustainability within the healthcare system.

Learnings from COVID-19 for managing humanitarian supply chains: systematic literature review and future research directions

The COVID-19 pandemic has been experienced as the most significant global disaster after the Spanish flue in 1918. Millions of people lost their life due to a lack of preparedness and ineffective strategies for managing humanitarian supply chains (HSC). Based on the learnings from this pandemic outbreak, different strategies for managing the effective HSC have been explored in the present context of pandemics through a systematic literature review. The findings highlight some of the major challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as lack of planning and preparedness, extended shortages of essential lifesaving items, inadequate lab capacity, lack of transparency and visibility, inefficient distribution network, high response time, dependencies on single sourcing for the medical equipment and medicines, lack of the right information on time, and lack of awareness about the protocol for the treatment of the viral disease. Some of the significant learnings observed from this analysis are the use of multiple sourcing of essential items, joint procurement, improving collaboration among all stakeholders, applications of IoT and blockchain technologies for improving tracking and traceability of essential commodities, application of data analytics tools for accurate prediction of next possible COVID wave/disruptions and optimization of distribution network. Limited studies are focused on finding solutions to these problems in managing HSC. Therefore, as a future scope, researchers could find solutions to optimizing the distribution network in context to pandemics, improving tracing and tracking of items during sudden demand, improving trust and collaborations among different agencies involved in HSC.

Investigating sustainable development for the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain: a structural equation modelling approach

Purpose

Immunization is one of the most cost-effective ways to save lives while promoting good health and happiness. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has served as a stark reminder of vaccines' ability to prevent transmission, save lives, and have a healthier, safer and more prosperous future. This research investigates the sustainable development (SD) of the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain (VSC).

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigates the relationship between internal process, organizational growth, and its three pillars of SD environmental sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability. Survey-based research is carried out in the hospitals providing COVID-19 vaccines. Nine hypotheses are proposed for the study, and all the hypotheses got accepted. The survey was sent to 428 respondents and received 291 responses from health professionals with a response rate of 68%. For the study, the healthcare professionals working in both private and public hospitals across India were selected.

Findings

The structural equation modelling (SEM) approach is used to test the hypothesis. All nine hypotheses are supported. This study examines a link between internal processes and organizational learning and the three sustainability pillars (environmental sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability).

Practical implications

This study will help the management and the policymakers to think and adopt SD in the COVID-19 VSC. This paper also implies that robust immunization systems will be required in the future to ensure that people worldwide are protected from COVID-19 and other diseases.

Originality/value

This paper shows the relationship between organizational learning and internal process with environmental sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability for the COVID-19. Studies on VSC of COVID-19 are not evident in any previous literature.

Challenges to COVID-19 vaccine supply chain: Implications for sustainable development goals

The COVID-19 outbreak has demonstrated the diverse challenges that supply chains face to significant disruptions. Vaccine supply chains are no exception. Therefore, it is elemental that challenges to the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain (VSC) are identified and prioritized to pave the way out of this pandemic. This study combines the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method with intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) to explore the key challenges of the COVID-19 VSC. The IFS theory tackles the uncertainty of key challenges while DEMATEL addresses the interlaced causal relationships among crucial challenges to the COVID-19 VSC. This work identifies 15 challenges and reveals that 'Limited number of vaccine manufacturing companies', 'Inappropriate coordination with local organizations', 'Lack of vaccine monitoring bodies', 'Difficulties in monitoring and controlling vaccine temperature', and 'Vaccination cost and lack of financial support for vaccine purchase' are the most critical challenges. The causal interactions along with mutual relationships among these challenges are also scrutinized, and implications for sustainable development goals (SDGs) are drawn. The results offer practical guidelines for stakeholders and government policy makers around the world to develop an improved VSC for the COVID-19 virus.

Advancing sustainable development goals through immunization: a literature review

BACKGROUND

Immunization directly impacts health (SDG3) and brings a contribution to 14 out of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as ending poverty, reducing hunger, and reducing inequalities. Therefore, immunization is recognized to play a central role in reaching the SDGs, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite continuous interventions to strengthen immunization systems and to adequately respond to emergency immunization during epidemics, the immunization-related indicators for SDG3 lag behind in sub-Saharan Africa. Especially taking into account the current Covid19 pandemic, the current performance on the connected SDGs is both a cause and a result of this.

METHODS

We conduct a literature review through a keyword search strategy complemented with handpicking and snowballing from earlier reviews. After title and abstract screening, we conducted a qualitative analysis of key insights and categorized them according to showing the impact of immunization on SDGs, sustainability challenges, and model-based solutions to these challenges.

RESULTS

We reveal the leveraging mechanisms triggered by immunization and position them vis-à-vis the SDGs, within the framework of Public Health and Planetary Health. Several challenges for sustainable control of vaccine-preventable diseases are identified: access to immunization services, global vaccine availability to LMICs, context-dependent vaccine effectiveness, safe and affordable vaccines, local/regional vaccine production, public-private partnerships, and immunization capacity/capability building. Model-based approaches that support SDG-promoting interventions concerning immunization systems are analyzed in light of the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

In general terms, it can be concluded that relevant future research requires (i) design for system resilience, (ii) transdisciplinary modeling, (iii) connecting interventions in immunization with SDG outcomes, (iv) designing interventions and their implementation simultaneously, (v) offering tailored solutions, and (vi) model coordination and integration of services and partnerships. The research and health community is called upon to join forces to activate existing knowledge, generate new insights and develop decision-supporting tools for Low-and Middle-Income Countries' health authorities and communities to leverage immunization in its transformational role toward successfully meeting the SDGs in 2030.