The Emergence of Japanese Encephalitis in Australia and the Implications for a Vaccination Strategy

Serosurvey for Japanese encephalitis virus antibodies following an outbreak in an immunologically naïve population, Victoria, 2022: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the distribution and prevalence of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) antibody (as evidence of past infection) in northern Victoria following the 2022 Japanese encephalitis outbreak, seeking to identify groups of people at particular risk of infection; to investigate the distribution and prevalence of antibodies to two related flaviviruses, Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and West Nile virus Kunjin subtype (KUNV).

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional serosurvey (part of a national JEV serosurveillance program).

SETTING

Three northern Victorian local public health units (Ovens Murray, Goulburn Valley, Loddon Mallee), 8 August - 1 December 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

People opportunistically recruited at pathology collection centres and by targeted recruitment through community outreach and advertisements. People vaccinated against or who had been diagnosed with Japanese encephalitis were ineligible for participation, as were those born in countries where JEV is endemic.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Seroprevalence of JEV IgG antibody, overall and by selected factors of interest (occupations, water body exposure, recreational activities and locations, exposure to animals, protective measures).

RESULTS

813 participants were recruited (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 42-69 years]; 496 female [61%]); 27 were JEV IgG-seropositive (3.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-4.8%) (median age, 73 years [interquartile range, 63-78 years]; 13 female [48%]); none were IgM-seropositive. JEV IgG-seropositive participants were identified at all recruitment locations, including those without identified cases of Japanese encephalitis. The only risk factors associated with JEV IgG-seropositivity were age (per year: prevalence odds ratio [POR], 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.10) and exposure to feral pigs (POR, 21; 95% CI, 1.7-190). The seroprevalence of antibody to MVEV was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.9-4.5%; 23 of 760 participants), and of KUNV antibody 3.3% (95% CI, 2.1-4.8%; 25 of 761).

CONCLUSIONS

People living in northern Victoria are vulnerable to future JEV infection, but few risk factors are consistently associated with infection. Additional prevention strategies, including expanding vaccine eligibility, may be required to protect people in this region from Japanese encephalitis.

Seroprevalence of Japanese encephalitis virus-specific antibodies in Australia following novel epidemic spread: protocol for a national cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes encephalitis and other morbidity in Southeast Asia. Since February 2022, geographically dispersed JEV human, animal and vector detections occurred on the Australian mainland for the first time. This study will determine the prevalence of JEV-specific antibodies in human blood with a focus on populations at high risk of JEV exposure and determine risk factors associated with JEV seropositivity by location, age, occupation and other factors.

METHOD

Samples are collected using two approaches: from routine blood donors (4153 samples), and active collections targeting high-risk populations (convenience sampling). Consent-based sampling for the latter includes a participant questionnaire on demographic, vaccination and exposure data. Samples are tested for JEV-specific total antibody using a defined epitope-blocking ELISA, and total antibody to Australian endemic flaviviruses Murray Valley encephalitis and Kunjin viruses.

ANALYSIS

Two analytic approaches will occur: descriptive estimates of seroprevalence and multivariable logistic regression using Bayesian hierarchical models. Descriptive analyses will include unadjusted analysis of raw data with exclusions for JEV-endemic country of birth, travel to JEV-endemic countries, prior JEV-vaccination, and sex-standardised and age-standardised analyses. Multivariable logistic regression will determine which risk factors are associated with JEV seropositivity likely due to recent transmission within Australia and the relative contribution of each factor when accounting for effects within the model.

ETHICS

National Mutual Acceptance ethical approval was obtained from the Sydney Children's Hospitals Network Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC). Local approvals were sought in each jurisdiction. Ethical approval was also obtained from the Australian Red Cross Lifeblood HREC.

DISSEMINATION

Findings will be communicated to participants and their communities, and human and animal health stakeholders and policy-makers iteratively and after final analyses. Understanding human infection rates will inform procurement and targeted allocation of limited JEV vaccine, and public health strategies and communication campaigns, to at-risk populations.

A decision support tool for risk-benefit analysis of Japanese encephalitis vaccine in travellers

BACKGROUND

During pre-travel consultations, clinicians and travellers face the challenge of weighing the risks verus benefits of Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccination due to the high cost of the vaccine, low incidence in travellers (~1 in 1 million), but potentially severe consequences (~30% case-fatality rate). Personalised JE risk assessment based on the travellers' demographics and travel itinerary is challenging using standard risk matrices. We developed an interactive digital tool to estimate risks of JE infection and severe health outcomes under different scenarios to facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and travellers.

METHODS

A Bayesian network (conditional probability) model risk-benefit analysis of JE vaccine in travellers was developed. The model considers travellers' characteristics (age, sex, co-morbidities), itinerary (destination, departure date, duration, setting of planned activities) and vaccination status to estimate the risks of JE infection, the development of symptomatic disease (meningitis, encephalitis), clinical outcomes (hospital admission, chronic neurological complications, death) and adverse events following immunization.

RESULTS

In low-risk travellers (e.g. to urban areas for <1 month), the risk of developing JE and dying is low (<1 per million) irrespective of the destination; thus, the potential impact of JE vaccination in reducing the risk of clinical outcomes is limited. In high-risk travellers (e.g. to rural areas in high JE incidence destinations for >2 months), the risk of developing symptomatic disease and mortality is estimated at 9.5 and 1.4 per million, respectively. JE vaccination in this group would significantly reduce the risk of symptomatic disease and mortality (by ~80%) to 1.9 and 0.3 per million, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The JE tool may assist decision-making by travellers and clinicians and could increase JE vaccine uptake. The tool will be updated as additional evidence becomes available. Future work needs to evaluate the usability of the tool. The interactive, scenario-based, personalised JE vaccine risk-benefit tool is freely available on www.VaxiCal.com.

Belgian Anopheles plumbeus Mosquitoes Are Competent for Japanese Encephalitis Virus and Readily Feed on Pigs, Suggesting a High Vectorial Capacity

Anopheles plumbeus, a day-active mosquito known to feed aggressively on humans, was reported as a nuisance species near an abandoned pigsty in Belgium. Since Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an emerging zoonotic flavivirus which uses pigs as amplification hosts, we investigated (1) whether An. plumbeus would feed on pigs and (2) its vector competence for JEV, to investigate whether this species could be a potential vector. Three- to seven-day-old F0-generation adult mosquitoes, emerged from field-collected larvae, were fed on a JEV genotype 3 Nakayama strain spiked blood meal. Blood-fed mosquitoes were subsequently incubated for 14 days at two temperature conditions: a constant 25 °C and a 25/15 °C day/night temperature gradient. Our results show that An. plumbeus is a competent vector for JEV at the 25 °C condition and this with an infection rate of 34.1%, a dissemination rate of 67.7% and a transmission rate of 14.3%. The vector competence showed to be influenced by temperature, with a significantly lower dissemination rate (16.7%) and no transmission when implementing the temperature gradient. Moreover, we demonstrated that An. plumbeus readily feeds on pigs when the opportunity occurs. Therefore, our results suggest that Belgian An. plumbeus mosquitoes may play an important role in the transmission of JEV upon an introduction into our region if temperatures increase with climate change.

The evolving Japanese encephalitis situation in Australia and implications for travel medicine

The recent emergence of Japanese encephalitis in south-eastern Australia highlights the changing epidemiology of this important disease and the need for integrated surveillance to inform risk-based discussions and vaccination advice for travellers and endemic populations.

Relevant Day/Night Temperatures Simulating Belgian Summer Conditions Reduce Japanese Encephalitis Virus Dissemination and Transmission in Belgian Field-Collected Culex pipiens Mosquitoes

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a zoonotic mosquito-borne Flavivirus, can be considered an emerging infectious disease. Therefore, vector competence studies with indigenous mosquitoes from regions where JEV is not yet endemic are of great importance. In our study, we compared the vector competence of Culex pipiens mosquitoes emerged from Belgian field-caught larvae under two different temperature conditions: a constant 25 °C and a 25/15 °C day/night temperature gradient representing typical summer temperatures in Belgium. Three- to seven-day-old F0-generation mosquitoes were fed on a JEV genotype 3 Nakayama strain spiked blood-meal and incubated for 14 days at the two aforementioned temperature conditions. Similar infection rates of 36.8% and 35.2% were found in both conditions. The observed dissemination rate in the gradient condition was, however, significantly lower compared to the constant temperature condition (8% versus 53.6%, respectively). JEV was detected by RT-qPCR in the saliva of 13.3% of dissemination positive mosquitoes in the 25 °C condition, and this transmission was confirmed by virus isolation in 1 out of 2 RT-qPCR positive samples. No JEV transmission to saliva was detected in the gradient condition. These results suggest that JEV transmission by Culex pipiens mosquitoes upon an accidental introduction in our region is unlikely under current climatic conditions. This could change in the future when temperatures increase due to climate change.

Japanese Encephalitis Virus: The Emergence of Genotype IV in Australia and Its Potential Endemicity

A fatal case of Japanese encephalitis (JE) occurred in northern Australia in early 2021. Sequence studies showed that the virus belonged to genotype IV (GIV), a genotype previously believed to be restricted to the Indonesian archipelago. This was the first locally acquired case of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) GIV to occur outside Indonesia, and the second confirmed fatal human case caused by a GIV virus. A closely related GIV JEV strain subsequently caused a widespread outbreak in eastern Australia in 2022 that was first detected by fetal death and abnormalities in commercial piggeries. Forty-two human cases also occurred with seven fatalities. This has been the first major outbreak of JEV in mainland Australia, and geographically the largest virgin soil outbreak recorded for JEV. This outbreak provides an opportunity to discuss and document the factors involved in the virus' spread and its ecology in a novel ecological milieu in which other flaviviruses, including members of the JE serological complex, also occur. The probable vertebrate hosts and mosquito vectors are discussed with respect to virus spread and its possible endemicity in Australia, and the need to develop a One Health approach to develop improved surveillance methods to rapidly detect future outbreak activity across a large geographical area containing a sparse human population. Understanding the spread of JEV in a novel ecological environment is relevant to the possible threat that JEV may pose in the future to other receptive geographic areas, such as the west coast of the United States, southern Europe or Africa.

An Outbreak of Japanese Encephalitis Virus in Australia; What Is the Risk to Blood Safety?

A widespread outbreak of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) was detected in mainland Australia in 2022 in a previous non-endemic area. Given JEV is known to be transfusion-transmissible, a rapid blood-safety risk assessment was performed using a simple deterministic model to estimate the risk to blood safety over a 3-month outbreak period during which 234,212 donors attended. The cumulative estimated incidence in donors was 82 infections with an estimated 4.26 viraemic components issued, 1.58 resulting in transfusion-transmission and an estimated risk of encephalitis of 1 in 4.3 million per component transfused over the risk period. Australia has initiated a robust public health response, including vector control, animal control and movement, and surveillance. Unlike West Nile virus, there is an effective vaccine that is being rolled-out to those at higher risk. Risk evaluation considered options such as restricting those potentially at risk to plasma for fractionation, which incorporates additional pathogen reduction, introducing a screening test, physicochemical pathogen reduction, quarantine, post donation illness policy changes and a new donor deferral. However, except for introducing a new deferral to potentially cover rare flavivirus risks, no option resulted in a clear risk reduction benefit but all posed threats to blood sufficiency or cost. Therefore, the blood safety risk was concluded to be tolerable without specific mitigations.

Emerging Genotype IV Japanese Encephalitis Virus Outbreak in New South Wales, Australia

The detection of a new and unexpected Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak in March 2022 in Australia, where JEV is not endemic, demanded the rapid development of a robust diagnostic framework to facilitate the testing of suspected patients across the state of New South Wales (NSW). This nascent but comprehensive JEV diagnostic service encompassed serological, molecular and metagenomics testing within a centralised reference laboratory. Over the first three months of the outbreak (4 March 2022 to 31 May 2022), 1,061 prospective samples were received from 878 NSW residents for JEV testing. Twelve confirmed cases of Japanese encephalitis (JE) were identified, including ten cases diagnosed by serology alone, one case by metagenomic next generation sequencing and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of brain tissue and serology, and one case by RT-PCR of cerebrospinal fluid, providing an incidence of JE over this period of 0.15/100,000 persons in NSW. As encephalitis manifests in <1% of cases of JEV infection, the population-wide prevalence of JEV infection is likely to be substantially higher. Close collaboration with referring laboratories and clinicians was pivotal to establishing successful JEV case ascertainment for this new outbreak. Sustained and coordinated animal, human and environmental surveillance within a OneHealth framework is critical to monitor the evolution of the current outbreak, understand its origins and optimise preparedness for future JEV and arbovirus outbreaks.

Using Genomics to Understand the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases in the Northern Territory of Australia

The Northern Territory (NT) is a geographically remote region of northern and central Australia. Approximately a third of the population are First Nations Australians, many of whom live in remote regions. Due to the physical environment and climate, and scale of social inequity, the rates of many infectious diseases are the highest nationally. Molecular typing and genomic sequencing in research and public health have provided considerable new knowledge on the epidemiology of infectious diseases in the NT. We review the applications of genomic sequencing technology for molecular typing, identification of transmission clusters, phylogenomics, antimicrobial resistance prediction, and pathogen detection. We provide examples where these methodologies have been applied to infectious diseases in the NT and discuss the next steps in public health implementation of this technology.