Land-Cover Change Analysis and Simulation in Conakry (Guinea), Using Hybrid Cellular-Automata and Markov Model

Past and future land use change dynamics: assessing the impact of urban development on agricultural land in the Pantura Jabar region, Indonesia

The conversion of large-scale agricultural land into urban areas poses a significant challenge to achieving national and global food security targets, as outlined in Sustainable Development Goal number 2, which aims to eradicate hunger. Indonesia has experienced a significant decline in rice field areas, with a reduction of approximately 650 thousand hectares within a year (2017-2018), the largest being in Java. Hence, this study aims to examine the impact of urban expansion on agricultural land in the north coast region of West Java Province from 2013 to 2020 and develop a predictive model for 2030 to support sustainable land use planning. The primary methods employed were random forest (RF) analysis using Google Earth Engine, intensity analysis, multilayer perceptron-neural network (MLP-NN), Markov chains-cellular automata (Markov-CA), and stakeholder interviews. The model also evaluated the influence of "distance to tollgates" as a previously unexplored driving factor in existing land use modeling studies. Landsat image classification results using the RF algorithm showed 87-88% accuracy. Cropland has historically been and is projected to remain the primary target for the expansion of built-up areas. Spatial planning irregularities were found in the growth of these areas that adversely affected farmers' socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Evaluation of land use models using MLP-NN and Markov-CA demonstrated an accuracy rate of 86.29-86.23%. The distance to tollgates factor significantly impacts the models, albeit less than population density. The 2030 intervention scenario, which implements a firm policy for sustainable agricultural land use, offers the potential to maintain the predicted cropland loss compared to business as usual.

Factors facilitating the use of contraceptive methods among urban adolescents and youth in Guinea: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

The use of modern contraceptive methods among adolescents and youth is a public health priority to prevent unintended pregnancies. To our knowledge, no study has ever explored and documented factors promoting contraceptive use among urban adolescents and youth in Guinea. The objective of this study was to explore the factors that promote the use of contraceptive methods at the personal, interpersonal, community, and health system levels among urban adolescents and youth in Guinea.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative research study including twenty-six individual in-depth interviews among adolescents and youth, and 10 group interviews with an additional eighty individuals, for a total of 106 participants. The socio-ecological model was used to orient both data collection and analysis. Data were collected from June to October 2019. Both individual and group interviews were audio-recorded, and transcribed verbatims afterwards. Data was analyzed thematically, using deductive codes.

RESULTS

The individual factors favoring contraceptive use among adolescents and youth pertained to perceived benefits of the methods (e.g., discretion, absence of side effects, duration of action, ease of use), knowledge of the family planning service channels, and means to afford the cost of the method. The interpersonal factors were spouse/sexual partner approval, and peer suggestions about contraceptive methods. The community factors included socio-cultural beliefs about the methods, and community expectation not to get pregnant before marriage. The health system factors included access to free contraceptive methods, availability of methods, clinical competence and attitude of the health care provider to advise or administer methods, and proximity of family planning services to users' place of residence.

CONCLUSIONS

This qualitative research shows that many adolescents and youth living in Conakry use a variety of contraceptive methods, whether modern, traditional Access to free or affordable methods, discretion of method use, proximity and availability of methods, and suggestions of methods by peers are factors that motivate adolescents and youth to use contraception. In order to optimally facilitate the use of modern contraception among adolescent and young urban Guineans, we recommend that: (1) adolescents and youth have access to public health strategies enabling them to learn about, obtain, and use methods in a way that allows them to remain discreet; (2) the use of modern contraceptive methods be promoted by peers; and (3) health care providers and peers be adequately trained to have accurate and up-to-date knowledge about the different contraceptive methods available, demonstrate clinical skills for teaching and for method placement (if applicable), and show appropriate attitudes toward this population. This knowledge can inform policies and programs to improve the use of effective contraceptive methods by adolescents and youth living in urban Guinea.

Perceptions of COVID-19 among communities of Conakry (Guinea): a qualitative study exploring the context of the ANRS COV33 Coverage-Africa therapeutic trial

OBJECTIVES

To explore communities' perceptions about COVID-19 in the context of the ANRS COV33 Coverage-Africa clinical trial evaluating the efficacy of treatments in preventing clinical worsening of COVID-19.

DESIGN

Descriptive qualitative study using semistructured in-depth individual interviews conducted by telephone in French and Soussou between May and September 2021. Data were transcribed, translated in French when applicable and analysed with the thematic analysis method.

SETTING

The eight neighbourhoods most affected by COVID-19 in Conakry's urban context, capital of Guinea.

PARTICIPANTS

4 community leaders acting as key informants-providing insights regarding population's opinions-and six community members, who were exposed to an information session conducted as part of Coverage-Africa.

RESULTS

According to participants, community members have heterogeneous viewpoints about COVID-19: it exists and is dangerous; it is benign ('bad cold'); or it is fictitious (eg, government conspiracy). The fear of stigmatisation and social isolation of those sick or cured of COVID-19 was largely reported by participants, with illustrations of distressing situations for the victims. To avoid stigma, many patients seem to adopt strategies of discretion (eg, lying/hiding about the disease). Although community attitudes were reported to have evolved since the beginning of the epidemic, stigma remained a pervasive concern for many people.

CONCLUSIONS

Community perceptions about COVID-19 in Conakry may be partly explained by the Guinean context of Ebola history and of sociopolitical tensions. Stigmatisation of COVID+ people seems to be aimed at protecting others against contamination. However, social avoidance can greatly affect the morale of stigmatised people, especially in collectivist cultures like Guinea. Further investigating stigma, including its role on seeking COVID-19 screening and treatment services, and its consequences on mental health among affected/exposed people, would contribute to identifying improved prevention and care interventions in preparation for future health threats, and to promoting participation in health research.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04920838 (Pre-results stage).

Barriers to Contraceptive Use Among Urban Adolescents and Youth in Conakry, in 2019, Guinea

Background: Despite efforts to improve access to family planning, contraceptive prevalence remains relatively low among adolescents and youth in Guinea. The objective of this study was to understand the barriers to the use of modern contraceptive methods among urban adolescents and youth (15–24 years) in Conakry, Guinea.

Methods: This was a qualitative study using an exploratory design. It was conducted in the capital city of Guinea, Conakry in 2019. Respondents included adolescents and youth aged 15–24 years, health care providers, and parents of adolescents and youth. In-depth individual interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) were used to collect the data. Sixty IDIs and ten FGDs were planned in Conakry. These data were recorded and transcribed, when applicable, from the local languages into French in an anonymous manner. The data were analyzed using a mixed (inductive and deductive) thematic approach following the elements of the socio-ecological model.

Results: Overall, 56 IDIs and 10 FGDs were conducted with 136 participants and included in this analysis. Respondents were adolescents (16%), youth (30%), and key informants (54%) who were health care providers (public and private), decision-makers, parents of adolescents and youth, and neighbors. Among adolescent respondents, 75% were female, and of the youth, 61% were female. Our analysis indicates various and interrelated barriers that limit the access and use of contraceptives by adolescents and youth. These included the individual (fear of side effects, cost, and rumor-related misinformation), interpersonal or family (spouse perception and sexuality taboo and perception of sexual activity before marriage), sociocultural (religious prohibitions and ethnicity), and health care system (breakdown of contraceptive methods in public health facilities, perception of service delivery, provider attitudes, visiting hours, geographic proximity of services, and quality of training received by health care providers) barriers.

Conclusion: In our context, the use of modern contraceptive methods by adolescents and youth is influenced by an interaction of various barriers, including individual, interpersonal, sociocultural, and health care system factors. Strengthening contraceptive uptake interventions by involving different stakeholders, including adolescents, parents, religious, and community leaders, and improving the quality of sexual and reproductive health services would help in reducing barriers to contraceptive use among adolescents and youth.

Land cover change and its impact on human–elephant conflict: a case from Fashiakhali forest reserve in Bangladesh

Changes in land cover are a major driving force behind habitat change, which significantly impacts the distribution of wildlife and ecological systems. However, there is a substantial lack of information on the effects of land cover changes on wildlife habitat and local conservation. Therefore, it is essential to understand how land cover changes may threaten future land cover trends and wildlife habitat loss, especially in protected areas. Landsat satellite imagery uses a geographic information system and remote sensing techniques to determine the spatiotemporal pattern of land cover change and its impact on the human–elephant conflict in the Fashiakhali Wildlife Sanctuary. We found that within the sanctuary (1994–2005), settlements, agricultural land, and bare land increased by 69.8 ha (2.3%), 991.6 ha (32.3%), and 39.5 ha (1.3%), and forest areas and water areas decreased by 1094.1 ha (35.7%) and 6.9 ha (0.2%), respectively. On the other hand (2005–2015), settlements, agricultural land, and water areas increased by 11.7 ha (0.4%), 264.7 ha (8.6%), and 36.2 ha (1.2%), and forest areas and bare land decreased by 308.9 ha (10.1%) and 3.7 ha (0.1%), respectively. Our findings have shown that increased agriculture and settlements have become a severe threat to the ecological sustainability of elephant habitat, resulting in habitat fragmentation and human encroachment of elephant habitats, as well as extreme pressure and competition on resources.

An Analysis of Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Blantyre City, Southern Malawi (1994–2018)

Rapid and unplanned urban growth has adverse environmental and social consequences. This is prominent in sub-Saharan Africa where the urbanisation rate is high and characterised by the proliferation of informal settlements. It is, therefore, crucial that urban land use/land cover (LULC) changes be investigated in order to enhance effective planning and sustainable growth. In this paper, the spatial and temporal LULC changes in Blantyre city were studied using the integration of remotely sensed Landsat imageries of 1994, 2007 and 2018, and a geographic information system (GIS). The supervised classification method using the support vector machine algorithm was applied to generate the LULC maps. The study also analysed the transition matrices derived from the classified map to identify prominent processes of changes for planning prioritisation. The results showed that the built-up class, which included urban structures such as residential, industrial, commercial and public installations, increased in the 24-year study period. On the contrary, bare land, which included vacant lands, open spaces with little or no vegetation, hilly clear-cut areas and other fallow land, declined over the study period. This was also the case with the vegetation class (i.e., forests, parks, permanent tree-covered areas and shrubs). The post-classification results revealed that the LULC changes during the second period (2007–2018) were faster compared to the first period (1994–2007). Furthermore, the results revealed that the increase in built-up areas systematically targeted the bare land and avoided the vegetated areas, and that the vegetated areas were systematically cleared to bare land during the study period (1994–2018). The findings of this study have revealed the pressure of human activities on the land and natural environment in Blantyre and provided the basis for sustainable urban planning and development in Blantyre city.

Simulating urban expansion in a rapidly changing landscape in eastern Tarai, Nepal

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and predicting future growth is now essential for sustainable urban planning and policy making. This study explores future urban expansion in the rapidly growing region of eastern lowland Nepal. We used the hybrid cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, which utilizes historical land use and land cover (LULC) maps and several biophysical change driver variables to predict urban expansion for the years 2026 and 2036. Transitional area matrices were generated based on historical LULC data from 1996 to 2006, from 2006 to 2016, and from 1996 to 2016. The approach was validated by cross comparing the actual and simulated maps for 2016. Evaluation gave satisfactory values of Kno (0.89), Kstandard (0.84), and Klocation (0.89) which verifies the accuracy of the model. Hence, the CA-Markov model was utilized to simulate the LULC map for the years 2026 and 2036. The study area experienced rapid peri/urban expansion and sharp decline in area of cultivated land during 1989-2016. Built-up area increased by 110.90 km² over a period of 27 years at the loss of 87.59 km² cultivated land. Simulation analysis indicates that urban expansion will continue with urban cover increasing to 230 km² (8.95%) and 318.51 km² (12.45%) by 2026 and 2036, respectively, with corresponding declines in cultivated land to 1453.83 km² (56.86%) and 1374.93 km² (53.77%) for the same years. The alarming increase in urban areas coupled with loss of cultivated land will have negative implications for food security and environmental equilibrium in the region.