City-Wide Firearm Violence Spikes in Minneapolis following the Murder of George Floyd: A Comparative Time-Series Analysis of Three Cities

Carjacking and homicide in Minneapolis after the police killing of George Floyd: Evidence from an interrupted time series analysis

There is abundant research showing the disproportionate impacts of violence on health in disadvantaged neighborhoods, making an understanding of recent violent crime trends essential for promoting health equity. Carjackings have been of particular interest in the media, although little research has been undertaken on this violent crime. We use interrupted time series models to examine the impact of the police killing of George Floyd on the spatiotemporal patterns of carjacking in Minneapolis in relation to neighborhood disadvantage. To provide grounding, we compare our results to the well-studied patterns of homicides. Results indicate that carjackings both increased and dispersed spatially after the murder of George Floyd and subsequent social unrest, more so than homicides. Socially disadvantaged neighborhoods experienced the greatest absolute increase while more advantaged neighborhoods saw a greater relative increase. The challenge ahead is to identify policy responses that will effectively curb such violence without resorting to harsh and inequitable policing and sentencing practices.

The impact of COVID-19 on police officer activities

Objective

This study examined the impact of COVID-19 on police reactive and proactive activities in Houston, Texas. Seven types of police officer reactivity and three distinct categories of proactivity were examined.

Methods

Weekly calls for service data from January 1, 2018-December 31, 2020 were analyzed through interrupted time series using ARIMA models.

Results

Police responses to property, traffic-related activities, and service-related calls all decreased when compared to previous years. A significant increase was observed for violent crime calls. Self-initiated activities performed by specialized crime units significantly decreased, but there was a significant increase in self-initiated patrol. Activities performed by a specialized response unit initially increased, but then went back to pre-pandemic levels following the death of George Floyd.

Conclusions

Observed decreases in reactivity may be attributed to changes in citizens' routine activities. COVID-19 was associated with increased demands for police responses to violence, consistent with extant research. A unique contribution of this study was the incorporation of officer proactivity. Changes to proactive patrol could also be attributed to changes in the routine activities of citizens. This study adds to the growing body of literature examining the impact of COVID-19 on police services.