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Bhagwandin K, Thaver-Kleitman J, Subramoney K, Manamela MJ, Prabdial-Sing N. Exploring the Epidemiological Surveillance of Hepatitis A in South Africa: A 2023 Perspective. Viruses 2024; 16:894. [PMID: 38932186 PMCID: PMC11209128 DOI: 10.3390/v16060894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2024] [Revised: 05/24/2024] [Accepted: 05/27/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Hepatitis A (HAV) presents a significant global health concern with diverse clinical manifestations primarily transmitted through fecal-oral routes, emphasizing the critical role of sanitation and water cleanliness in transmission dynamics. Age-related variations, notably asymptomatic presentation in children, add complexity. The World Health Organization's (WHO) endemicity classification aids in understanding prevalence and control strategies. This study examines 2023 South African epidemiological data on HAV cases, evaluating age distribution, incidence rates, and provincial disparities. Data from the national surveillance system and weather services were analyzed. Findings reveal distinct age-related trends, with the highest seroprevalence observed in the 5-9 age group with the most burdened areas located in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Gauteng provinces. Furthermore, seasonal rainfall variations correlate with increased incidence in Western Cape and KZN. The amalgamation of results suggest a potential epidemiological shift, emphasizing the need for updated immunization strategies. Noteworthy patterns, like the rise in 5-9-year-olds, may be influenced by factors such as school clustering and migration. Provincial disparities and the impact of climatic events underscore the necessity for dynamic vaccination strategies and surveillance network enhancements. This study highlights the urgency for improved understanding and response to HAV in South Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keveshan Bhagwandin
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (K.B.); (J.T.-K.); (K.S.); (M.J.M.)
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa
| | - Jayendrie Thaver-Kleitman
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (K.B.); (J.T.-K.); (K.S.); (M.J.M.)
| | - Kathleen Subramoney
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (K.B.); (J.T.-K.); (K.S.); (M.J.M.)
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa
| | - Morubula Jack Manamela
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (K.B.); (J.T.-K.); (K.S.); (M.J.M.)
| | - Nishi Prabdial-Sing
- Division of the National Health Laboratory Services, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg 2131, South Africa; (K.B.); (J.T.-K.); (K.S.); (M.J.M.)
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa
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Patterson J, Cleary S, Norman JM, Van Zyl H, Awine T, Mayet S, Kagina B, Muloiwa R, Hussey G, Silal SP. Modelling the Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A in South Africa. Vaccines (Basel) 2024; 12:116. [PMID: 38400100 PMCID: PMC10893480 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines12020116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2023] [Revised: 01/14/2024] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024] Open
Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the consideration of introducing routine hepatitis A vaccination into national immunization schedules for children ≥ 1 years old in countries with intermediate HAV endemicity. Recent data suggest that South Africa is transitioning from high to intermediate HAV endemicity, thus it is important to consider the impact and cost of potential routine hepatitis A vaccination strategies in the country. An age-structured compartmental model of hepatitis A transmission was calibrated with available data from South Africa, incorporating direct costs of hepatitis A treatment and vaccination. We used the calibrated model to evaluate the impact and costs of several childhood hepatitis A vaccination scenarios from 2023 to 2030. We assessed how each scenario impacted the burden of hepatitis A (symptomatic hepatitis A cases and mortality) as well as calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted as compared to the South African cost-effectiveness threshold. All costs and outcomes were discounted at 5%. For the modelled scenarios, the median estimated cost of the different vaccination strategies ranged from USD 1.71 billion to USD 2.85 billion over the period of 2023 to 2030, with the cost increasing for each successive scenario and approximately 39-52% of costs being due to vaccination. Scenario 1, which represented the administration of one dose of the hepatitis A vaccine in children < 2 years old, requires approximately 5.3 million vaccine doses over 2023-2030 and is projected to avert a total of 136,042 symptomatic cases [IQR: 88,842-221,483] and 31,106 [IQR: 22,975-36,742] deaths due to hepatitis A over the period of 2023 to 2030. The model projects that Scenario 1 would avert 8741 DALYs over the period of 2023 to 2030; however, it is not cost-effective against the South African cost-effectiveness threshold with an ICER per DALY averted of USD 21,006. While Scenario 3 and 4 included the administration of more vaccine doses and averted more symptomatic cases of hepatitis A, these scenarios were absolutely dominated owing to the population being infected before vaccination through the mass campaigns at older ages. The model was highly sensitive to variation of access to liver transplant in South Africa. When increasing the access to liver transplant to 100% for the baseline and Scenario 1, the ICER for Scenario 1 becomes cost-effective against the CET (ICER = USD 2425). Given these findings, we recommend further research is conducted to understand the access to liver transplants in South Africa and better estimate the cost of liver transplant care for hepatitis A patients. The modelling presented in this paper has been used to develop a user-friendly application for vaccine policy makers to further interrogate the model outcomes and consider the costs and benefits of introducing routine hepatitis A vaccination in South Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenna Patterson
- Vaccines for Africa Initiative, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
| | - Susan Cleary
- School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
| | - Jared Michael Norman
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7700, South Africa
| | - Heiletjé Van Zyl
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7700, South Africa
| | - Timothy Awine
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7700, South Africa
| | - Saadiyah Mayet
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7700, South Africa
| | - Benjamin Kagina
- Vaccines for Africa Initiative, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
| | - Rudzani Muloiwa
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7700, South Africa
| | - Gregory Hussey
- Vaccines for Africa Initiative, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
- Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7925, South Africa
| | - Sheetal Prakash Silal
- Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7700, South Africa
- Centre for Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford OX3 7LG, UK
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Zhao L, Zou Y, David RE, Withington S, McFarlane S, Faust RA, Norton J, Xagoraraki I. Simple methods for early warnings of COVID-19 surges: Lessons learned from 21 months of wastewater and clinical data collection in Detroit, Michigan, United States. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 864:161152. [PMID: 36572285 PMCID: PMC9783093 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Revised: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has drawn great attention since the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, not only due to its capability to circumvent the limitations of traditional clinical surveillance, but also due to its potential to forewarn fluctuations of disease incidences in communities. One critical application of WBE is to provide "early warnings" for upcoming fluctuations of disease incidences in communities which traditional clinical testing is incapable to achieve. While intricate models have been developed to determine early warnings based on wastewater surveillance data, there is an exigent need for straightforward, rapid, broadly applicable methods for health departments and partner agencies to implement. Our purpose in this study is to develop and evaluate such early-warning methods and clinical-case peak-detection methods based on WBE data to mount an informed public health response. Throughout an extended wastewater surveillance period across Detroit, MI metropolitan area (the entire study period is from September 2020 to May 2022) we designed eight early-warning methods (three real-time and five post-factum). Additionally, we designed three peak-detection methods based on clinical epidemiological data. We demonstrated the utility of these methods for providing early warnings for COVID-19 incidences, with their counterpart accuracies evaluated by hit rates. "Hit rates" were defined as the number of early warning dates (using wastewater surveillance data) that captured defined peaks (using clinical epidemiological data) divided by the total number of early warning dates. Hit rates demonstrated that the accuracy of both real-time and post-factum methods could reach 100 %. Furthermore, the results indicate that the accuracy was influenced by approaches to defining peaks of disease incidence. The proposed methods herein can assist health departments capitalizing on WBE data to assess trends and implement quick public health responses to future epidemics. Besides, this study elucidated critical factors affecting early warnings based on WBE amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liang Zhao
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, 1449 Engineering Research Ct, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - Yangyang Zou
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, 1449 Engineering Research Ct, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - Randy E David
- Detroit Health Department, 100 Mack Ave, Detroit, MI 48201, USA
| | | | - Stacey McFarlane
- Macomb County Health Division, 43525 Elizabeth Rd, Mount Clemens, MI 48043, USA
| | - Russell A Faust
- Oakland County Health Division, 1200 Telegraph Rd, Pontiac, MI 48341, USA
| | - John Norton
- Great Lakes Water Authority, 735 Randolph, Detroit, MI 48226, USA
| | - Irene Xagoraraki
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, 1449 Engineering Research Ct, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA.
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Walabh P, Meyer A, de Maayer T, Moshesh PN, Hassan IE, Walabh P, Hajinicolaou C. Prognostic factors and scoring systems associated with outcome in pediatric acute liver failure. BMC Pediatr 2022; 22:516. [PMID: 36045327 PMCID: PMC9429365 DOI: 10.1186/s12887-022-03574-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2022] [Accepted: 08/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Pediatric acute liver failure (PALF) is an uncommon, devastating illness with significant mortality. Liver transplantation remains the mainstay of treatment for irreversible PALF. The purpose of this study was to determine the etiology and prognostic factors associated with outcome of PALF in South Africa and to evaluate prognostic scoring systems used. Methods Records of 45 pediatric patients younger than 16 years of age who presented with PALF from 1 January 2015 till 31 October 2020 were analysed. Patients were divided into two groups with one group consisting of patients with spontaneous recovery of the liver with supportive treatment (6/45:13.3%) and the second group consisting of patients with poor outcomes who demised (19/45: 42%) or underwent liver transplantation (20/45: 44%). Results The median age of presentation was 3.3 years (IQR 1.8–6.9) with the 1–5 years age group constituting majority of patients (55.6%). Median time to follow up was 6.1 months (IQR 0.2–28.8). Higher liver injury unit scores were observed in patients who had poorer outcomes (P = 0.008) with a threshold of greater than 246 having a sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 83% (P < 0.001). Higher peak PELD/MELD (P = 0.006) and admission UKELD (P = 0.002) scores, were found in patients with poorer outcomes. Kings College Hospital criteria (KCHC) was useful in predicting which patients would die without liver transplantation (P = 0.002). Liver transplantation was performed in 20/45 (44%) patients with a post transplantation 1 year patient and graft survival of 80%. Conclusion Although, survival of PALF patients was lower than high and other low-middle income countries, outcomes post transplantation were good. Our study demonstrates the utility of dynamic scoring systems in PALF patients, it underscores the need for early referral and clinical monitoring in a tertiary center once the criteria for PALF have been met. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-022-03574-x.
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