Transmission Patterns of Seasonal Influenza in China between 2010 and 2018

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality, transmission zones, and implications for seasonal prevention strategy in China: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) represents a substantial global health challenge, with a disproportionately high disease burden in low-income and middle-income countries. RSV exhibits seasonality in most areas globally, and a comprehensive understanding of within-country variations in RSV seasonality could help to define the timing of RSV immunisation programmes. This study focused on China, and aimed to describe the geographical distribution of RSV seasonality, identify distinct RSV transmission zones, and evaluate the potential suitability of a seasonal RSV prevention strategy.

METHODS

We did a systematic analysis of RSV seasonality in China, with use of data on RSV activity extracted from a systematic review of studies published on Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data, Chongqing VIP Information, and SinoMed, from database inception until May 5, 2023. We included studies of any design in China reporting at least 25 RSV cases, which aggregated RSV case number by calendar month or week at the province level, and with data covering at least 12 consecutive months before the year 2020 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic). Studies that used only serology for RSV testing were excluded. We also included weekly data on RSV activity from open-access online databases of the Taiwan National Infection Disease Statistics System and Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection, applying the same eligiblity requirements. Across all datasets, we excluded data on RSV activity from Jan 1, 2020, onwards. We estimated RSV seasonal epidemic onset and duration using the annual average percentage (AAP) approach, and summarised seasonality at the provincial level. We used Pearson's partial correlation analysis to assess the correlation between RSV season duration and the latitude and longitude of the individual provinces. To define transmission zones, we used two independent approaches, an infant-passive-immunisation-driven approach (the moving interval approach, 6-month interval) and a data-driven approach (k-means), to identify groups of provinces with similar RSV seasonality. The systematic review was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42022376993.

FINDINGS

A total of 157 studies were included along with the two online datasets, reporting data on 194 596 RSV cases over 442 study-years (covering the period from Jan 1, 1993 to Dec 31, 2019), from 52 sites in 23 provinces. Among 21 provinces with sufficient data (≥100 reported cases), the median duration of RSV seasonal epidemics was 4·6 months (IQR 4·1-5·4), with a significant latitudinal gradient (r=-0·69, p<0·0007), in that provinces on or near the Tropic of Cancer had the longest epidemic duration. We found no correlation between longitude and epidemic duration (r=-0·15, p=0·53). 15 (71%) of 21 provinces had RSV epidemics from November to March. 13 (62%) of 21 provinces had clear RSV seasonality (epidemic duration ≤5 months). The moving interval approach categorised the 21 provinces into four RSV transmission zones. The first zone, consisting of five provinces (Fujian, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Yunnan), was assessed as unsuitable for seasonal RSV immunisation strategies; the other three zones were considered suitable for seasonal RSV immunisation strategies with the optimal start month varying between September (Hebei), October (Anhui, Chongqing, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, and Xinjiang), and November (Beijing, Gansu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Zhejiang). The k-means approach identified two RSV transmission zones, primarily differentiated by whether the province was on or near the Tropic of Cancer (Fujian, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Yunan, and Hunan) or not (the remaining 15 provinces).

INTERPRETATION

Although substantial variations in RSV seasonality were observed across provinces of China, our study identified distinct transmission zones with shared RSV circulating patterns. These findings could have important implications for decision making on RSV passive immunisation strategy. Furthermore, the methodological framework in this study for defining RSV seasons and identifying RSV transmission zones is potentially applicable to other countries or regions.

FUNDING

Nanjing Medical University.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Intensity and drivers of subtypes interference between seasonal influenza viruses in mainland China: A modeling study

Subtype interference has a significant impact on the epidemiological patterns of seasonal influenza viruses (SIVs). We used attributable risk percent [the absolute value of the ratio of the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) of different subtypes minus one] to quantify interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, as well as B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. The interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 was higher in southern China 0.26 (IQR: 0.11-0.46) than in northern China 0.17 (IQR: 0.07-0.24). Similarly, interference intensity between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata was also higher in southern China 0.14 (IQR: 0.07-0.24) than in norther China 0.10 (IQR: 0.04-0.18). High relative humidity significantly increased subtype interference, with the highest relative risk reaching 20.59 (95% CI: 6.12-69.33) in southern China. Southern China exhibited higher levels of subtype interference, particularly between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2. Higher relative humidity has a more pronounced promoting effect on subtype interference.

Influenza and COVID-19 co-infection and vaccine effectiveness against severe cases: a mathematical modeling study

Background

Influenza A virus have a distinctive ability to exacerbate SARS-CoV-2 infection proven by in vitro studies. Furthermore, clinical evidence suggests that co-infection with COVID-19 and influenza not only increases mortality but also prolongs the hospitalization of patients. COVID-19 is in a small-scale recurrent epidemic, increasing the likelihood of co-epidemic with seasonal influenza. The impact of co-infection with influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 on the population remains unstudied.

Method

Here, we developed an age-specific compartmental model to simulate the co-circulation of COVID-19 and influenza and estimate the number of co-infected patients under different scenarios of prevalent virus type and vaccine coverage. To decrease the risk of the population developing severity, we investigated the minimum coverage required for the COVID-19 vaccine in conjunction with the influenza vaccine, particularly during co-epidemic seasons.

Result

Compared to the single epidemic, the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 exhibits a lower trend and a delayed peak when co-epidemic with influenza. Number of co-infection cases is higher when SARS-CoV-2 co-epidemic with Influenza A virus than that with Influenza B virus. The number of co-infected cases increases as SARS-CoV-2 becomes more transmissible. As the proportion of individuals vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine and influenza vaccines increases, the peak number of co-infected severe illnesses and the number of severe illness cases decreases and the peak time is delayed, especially for those >60 years old.

Conclusion

To minimize the number of severe illnesses arising from co-infection of influenza and COVID-19, in conjunction vaccinations in the population are important, especially priority for the elderly.

Epidemiological features of seasonal influenza transmission among 11 climate zones in Chinese Mainland

BACKGROUND

Previous studies provided some evidence of meteorological factors influence seasonal influenza transmission patterns varying across regions and latitudes. However, research on seasonal influenza activities based on climate zones are still in lack. This study aims to utilize the ecological-based Köppen Geiger climate zones classification system to compare the spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza in Chinese Mainland and assess the feasibility of developing an early warning system.

METHODS

Weekly influenza cases number from 2014 to 2019 at the county and city level were sourced from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report Information System. Epidemic temporal indices, time series seasonality decomposition, spatial modelling theories including Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association were applied to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of influenza transmission.

RESULTS

All climate zones had peaks in Winter-Spring season. Arid, desert, cold (BWk) showed up the first peak. Only Tropical, savannah (Aw) and Temperate, dry winter with hot summer (Cwa) zones had unique summer peak. Temperate, no dry season and hot summer (Cfa) zone had highest average incidence rate (IR) at 1.047/100,000. The Global Moran's I showed that average IR had significant clustered trend (z = 53.69, P < 0.001), with local Moran's I identified high-high cluster in Cfa and Cwa. IR differed among three age groups between climate zones (0-14 years old: F = 26.80, P < 0.001; 15-64 years old: F = 25.04, P < 0.001; Above 65 years old: F = 5.27, P < 0.001). Age group 0-14 years had highest average IR in Cwa and Cfa (IR = 6.23 and 6.21) with unique dual peaks in winter and spring season showed by seasonality decomposition.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal influenza exhibited distinct spatial and temporal patterns in different climate zones. Seasonal influenza primarily emerged in BWk, subsequently in Cfa and Cwa. Cfa, Cwa and BSk pose high risk for seasonal influenza epidemics. The research finds will provide scientific evidence for developing seasonal influenza early warning system based on climate zones.

Coverage and impact of influenza vaccination among children in Minhang District, China, 2013-2020

Background

Young children have a great disease burden and are particularly vulnerable to influenza. This study aimed to assess the direct effect of influenza vaccination among children and to evaluate the indirect benefit of immunizing children.

Methods

The influenza vaccination records for all children born during 2013-2019 in Minhang District and surveillance data for reported influenza cases were obtained from the Minhang CDC. 17,905 children were recorded in the vaccination system and included in this study. Descriptive epidemiology methods were used for data analysis, including an ecological approach to estimate the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination and linear regression to estimate the reduction in influenza cases in the general population per thousand additional childhood vaccination doses.

Results

During the study period, the annual vaccination coverage rate ranged from 10.40% in 2013-2014 to 27.62% in 2015-2016. The estimated number of influenza cases averted by vaccination ranged from a low of 0.28 (range: 0.23-0.34) during 2013-2014 (PF: 6.15%, range: 5.11-7.38%) to a high of 15.34 (range: 12.38-18.51) during 2017-2018 (PF: 16.54%, range: 13.79-19.30%). When increasing vaccination coverage rate by 10% in each town/street, a ratio of 7.27-10.69% cases could be further averted on the basis of observed cases. In four selected periods, the number of influenza cases in the general population was most significantly correlated with the cumulative childhood vaccination doses in the prior 2-5 months, and the reduction in influenza cases ranged from 0.73 to 3.18 cases per thousand additional childhood vaccination doses.

Conclusion

Influenza vaccination among children is estimated to have direct effects in terms of averted cases and might provide an underlying indirect benefit to the general population. Vaccination coverage in high-coverage areas should be further expanded to avert more influenza cases.

Timing and Magnitude of the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Omicron Variant - 189 Countries and Territories, November 2021 to February 2023

What is already known about this topic?

The first nationwide wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), driven by the Omicron variant, has largely subsided. However, subsequent epidemic waves are inevitable due to waning immunity and the ongoing evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

What is added by this report?

Insights gleaned from other nations offer guidance regarding the timing and scale of potential subsequent waves of COVID-19 in China.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Understanding the timing and magnitude of subsequent waves of COVID-19 in China is crucial for forecasting and mitigating the spread of the infection.

Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China

The coexistence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021-2022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 64.0 and 34.5%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6 and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale influenza outbreak in the year 2022-2023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023-2024. To control the influenza epidemic to the prepandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 53.8 and 33.8%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.