Identifying the Most Probable Mammal Reservoir Hosts for Monkeypox Virus Based on Ecological Niche Comparisons

Evaluation of analytical performance of the STANDARDTM M10 MPX/OPX assay for the simultaneous DNA detection and clade attribution of Monkeypox virus

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection confirmation needs reliable polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays; in addition, viral clade attribution is a key factor in containment measures, considering a more severe syndrome in clade I and the possibility of simultaneous circulation. This study evaluates the performance of all-in-one STANDARD M10 MPX/OPX (SD BIOSENSOR, South Korea - M10). Frozen samples from 205 subjects were selected and stratified according to routine test results (RealStar® Orthopoxvirus PCR Kit 1.0, Altona DIAGNOTICS, Germany - RS; RS-1): in detail, 100 negative skin lesions (SL) and 200 positive samples at the variable stage of infection were analysed. Positive samples were retested with RS (RS-2). Positive and Negative Percent Agreements (PPA, NPA) were calculated. The median (IQR) Ct values of RS and M10 (OPXV target) assays were highly similar. The PPA of M10 compared to RS-1 was 89.5% considering system interpretation, and 96.0% when the operator classified results as positive if any target was detected; NPA was 100%. Comparing the RS-2 run and M10, an overall concordance of 95.3% between assays was found; however, considering operator interpretation, M10 returned more positive results than RS-2. The occurrence of False-Negative results was likely associated with the influence of thawing on low viral concentration; no False-Positive tests were observed. All samples collected at the time of Mpox diagnosis were positive and M10 correctly attributed the clade (West-Africa/II). The M10 MPX/OPX assay demonstrated high reliability in confirming MPXV infection and clade attribution.

Mpox and Lessons Learned in the Light of the Recent Outbreak: A Narrative Review

According to the WHO, more than 90,000 cases of mpox have been reported since the 2022 worldwide outbreak, which resulted in 167 deaths, while a new outbreak in Africa since 2023 has resulted in over 18,000 cases and 617 deaths. Mpox is a zoonosis caused by the monkeypox virus, a double-stranded DNA virus belonging to the Orthopoxvirus genus, which causes smallpox-like illness. Until 2022, cases were predominately located in West and Central Africa, with only sporadic cases and outbreaks reported in other parts of the world. During the 2022 outbreak, the primary mode of transmission was sexual contact among men who have sex with men. The changing epidemiology of mpox resulted in new disease phenotypes and populations at risk, disproportionally affecting people who live with HIV. Commonly presenting as a mild, self-limiting illness, mpox can cause severe and protracted disease in people with HIV with a CD4 count < 200 cell/mm3. The global emergence of mpox that followed and intersected with COVID-19 mobilized the scientific community and healthcare stakeholders to provide accurate diagnostics, preventive vaccines and treatment to those most affected. Despite existing gaps, this rapid response helped to contain the outbreak, but challenges remain as new variants emerge. Preparedness and readiness to respond to the next outbreak is crucial in order to minimize the impact to the most vulnerable.

The Peculiar Emergence of Mpox (Monkeypox): Directions for the Search for the Natural Reservoir and Vaccination Strategies

Background/Objectives: Mpox (monkeypox) is a zoonosis with origins in a currently unknown African reservoir. The first epidemiological accounts of mpox date back to the early 1980s, yet mpox only emerged as a pandemic threat in 2022-2023, more than 40 years later. This scenario is very different from those of other emerging diseases such as HIV and SARS, which immediately spread globally, in fully susceptible populations, starting from patients zero. Methods: We use mathematical modeling to illustrate the dynamics of mpox herd immunity in small communities in touch with the mpox natural reservoir. In particular, we employ an SEIR stochastic model. Results: The peculiar emergence of mpox can be explained by its relationship with smallpox, which was eradicated through universal mass vaccination in 1980. Mpox first emerged in small rural communities in touch with mpox's animal reservoir and then spread globally. The relative isolation of these communities and their herd-immunity dynamics against mpox worked to delay the introduction of mpox in large urban centers. Conclusions: Mathematical modeling suggests that the search for the mpox animal reservoir would be most fruitful in communities with high mpox seroprevalence and small outbreaks. These are communities is tight contact with the mpox natural reservoir. We propose vaccinating individuals in communities in these communities to severely reduce the importation of cases elsewhere.

No evidence of mpox virus circulation in putative animal reservoirs in Gabon wildlife

OBJECTIVES

Mpox is a neglected viral endemic tropical disease in Central and Western African countries transmitted to humans by an animal. However, the natural reservoir of the virus remains elusive. In this study, we looked for potential reservoirs of the mpox virus (MPXV) in Gabonese wildlife to prevent future outbreaks and enrich the literature with additional data on animal reservoirs.

METHODS

DNA was extracted from the livers and spleens from 2549 animals (bats [859], bushmeats [356], rodents [1309], and shrews [25]) collected between 2012 and 2021. DNA was analyzed by real-time and conventional polymerase chain reaction, targeting the 14 kD protein and the rpo subunit RNA polymerase of orthopoxviruses.

RESULTS

No MPXV DNA was detected despite the presence of potential host reservoirs such as Critcetomys, Crocidura, Praomys, and Atherurus africanus. This absence could be due to (i) the low number of animals collected for some species, (ii) the acute nature of mpox infection but also (iii) the lack of the potential reservoir Funisciurus anerythrus among collected animals, and (iv) the fact that the samplings are not included in the probable ecological niche of MPXV.

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal studies including potential ecological niches of F. anerythrus and MPXV in Gabon may be useful to get more information on MPXV circulation.

Mpox infection in animals: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Mpox is a zoonotic disease that became epidemic in multiple countries in 2022. There is a lack of published systematic reviews on natural animal infection due to Mpox. We performed a systematic literature review with meta-analysis to assess animal Mpox prevalence. We performed a random-effects model meta-analysis to calculate the pooled prevalence and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for prevalence studies. After the screening, 15 reports were selected for full-text assessment and included in qualitative and quantitative analyses. Ten reports assessed Mpox infection by molecular or serological tests (n = 2680), yielding a pooled prevalence of 16.0% (95%CI: 3.0-29.0%) for non-human primates; 8.0% (95%CI: 4.0-12.0%) for rodents and 1.0% (95%CI: 0.0-3.0%) for shrews. Further studies in other animals are required to define the extent and importance of natural infection due to Mpox. These findings have implications for public human and animal health. OneHealth approach is critical for prevention and control.

Molecular epidemiology of recurrent zoonotic transmission of mpox virus in West Africa

Nigeria and Cameroon reported their first mpox cases in over three decades in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The outbreak in Nigeria is recognised as an ongoing human epidemic. However, owing to sparse surveillance and genomic data, it is not known whether the increase in cases in Cameroon is driven by zoonotic or sustained human transmission. Notably, the frequency of zoonotic transmission remains unknown in both Cameroon and Nigeria. To address these uncertainties, we investigated the zoonotic transmission dynamics of the mpox virus (MPXV) in Cameroon and Nigeria, with a particular focus on the border regions. We show that in these regions mpox cases are still driven by zoonotic transmission of a newly identified Clade IIb.1. We identify two distinct zoonotic lineages that circulate across the Nigeria-Cameroon border, with evidence of recent and historic cross border dissemination. Our findings support that the complex cross-border forest ecosystems likely hosts shared animal populations that drive cross-border viral spread, which is likely where extant Clade IIb originated. We identify that the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic circulated in southern Nigeria in October 2013. We also show that the zoonotic precursor lineage circulated in an animal population in southern Nigeria for more than 45 years. This supports findings that southern Nigeria was the origin of the human epidemic. Our study highlights the ongoing MPXV zoonotic transmission in Cameroon and Nigeria, underscoring the continuous risk of MPXV (re)emergence.

Clinical Manifestations of an Outbreak of Monkeypox Virus in Captive Chimpanzees in Cameroon, 2016

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is a reemerging virus of global concern. An outbreak of clade I MPXV affected 20 captive chimpanzees in Cameroon in 2016. We describe the epidemiology, virology, phylogenetics, and clinical progression of this outbreak. Clinical signs included exanthema, facial swelling, perilaryngeal swelling, and eschar. Mpox can be lethal in captive chimpanzees, with death likely resulting from respiratory complications. We advise avoiding anesthesia in animals with respiratory signs to reduce the likelihood of death. This outbreak presented a risk to animal care staff. There is a need for increased awareness and a One Health approach to preparation for outbreaks in wildlife rescue centers in primate range states where MPXV occurs. Control measures should include quarantining affected animals, limiting human contacts, surveillance of humans and animals, use of personal protective equipment, and regular decontamination of enclosures.

A time of decline: An eco-anthropological and ethnohistorical investigation of mpox in the Central African Republic

The Central African Republic (CAR) has experienced repeated mpox outbreaks since 2001. Although several mpox epidemiological risk factors for zoonotic and interhuman transmission have been documented, the reasons for more frequent epidemic outbreaks are less well understood, relying on vague explanatory categories, including deforestation, hunting, and civil unrest. To gain insight into increasingly frequent outbreaks, we undertook an ethnohistorical, eco-anthropological analysis in two CAR regions: the Lobaye prefecture, experiencing one or more annual outbreaks in the past decade, and the Sangha-Mbaere prefecture, with a longer history of mpox but less frequent outbreaks. We comparatively examined changing political economies, forest use practices, and understandings of mpox. In 2022, we conducted 40 qualitative ethnohistorical, anthropological interviews and participant-observation of forest activities in two languages (Sango and French). We compared contemporary practices with hunting, trapping, and meet consumption practices, documented through quantitative and qualitative observation in one research site, over 6 months in 1993. We find increased rodent capture and consumption in both sites in the past 30 years and expanded practices of other potentially risky activities. Simultaneously, we also identify important differences in risky practices between our Lobaye and Sangha-Mbaere participants. In addition, Lobaye and Sangha participants underscored historical processes of decline producing mpox among other emergences, but they framed these declension processes diversely as economic, political, nutritional, and moral. Our findings are important because they mobilize new types of evidence to shed light on the processual dynamics of mpox outbreaks in the CAR. This study also reveals variability across two sites within the same country, highlighting the importance of comparative, fine-grained anthropological and historical research to identify underlying dynamics of mpox outbreaks. Finally, our study points to the need for mpox interventions and risk communication accounting for these regional differences, even within a single country.

Concurrent Clade I and Clade II Monkeypox Virus Circulation, Cameroon, 1979-2022

During 1979-2022, Cameroon recorded 32 laboratory-confirmed mpox cases among 137 suspected mpox cases identified by the national surveillance network. The highest positivity rate occurred in 2022, indicating potential mpox re-emergence in Cameroon. Both clade I (n = 12) and clade II (n = 18) monkeypox virus (MPXV) were reported, a unique feature of mpox in Cameroon. The overall case-fatality ratio of 2.2% was associated with clade II. We found mpox occurred only in the forested southern part of the country, and MPXV phylogeographic structure revealed a clear geographic separation among concurrent circulating clades. Clade I originated from eastern regions close to neighboring mpox-endemic countries in Central Africa; clade II was prevalent in western regions close to West Africa. Our findings suggest that MPXV re-emerged after a 30-year lapse and might arise from different viral reservoirs unique to ecosystems in eastern and western rainforests of Cameroon.

HIV and mpox: a rapid review

In this review, we discuss the history and epidemiology of mpox, prevention strategies, clinical characteristics and management, severity of mpox among persons with advanced HIV, and areas for future research relevant to persons with HIV.

Stability of Monkeypox Virus in Body Fluids and Wastewater

An outbreak of human mpox infection in nonendemic countries appears to have been driven largely by transmission through body fluids or skin-to-skin contact during sexual activity. We evaluated the stability of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in different environments and specific body fluids and tested the effectiveness of decontamination methodologies. MPXV decayed faster at higher temperatures, and rates varied considerably depending on the medium in which virus was suspended, both in solution and on surfaces. More proteinaceous fluids supported greater persistence. Chlorination was an effective decontamination technique, but only at higher concentrations. Wastewater was more difficult to decontaminate than plain deionized water; testing for infectious MPXV could be a helpful addition to PCR-based wastewater surveillance when high levels of viral DNA are detected. Our findings suggest that, because virus stability is sufficient to support environmental MPXV transmission in healthcare settings, exposure and dose-response will be limiting factors for those transmission routes.

Mapping global zoonotic niche and interregional transmission risk of monkeypox: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of monkeypox have been ongoing in non-endemic countries since May 2022. A thorough assessment of its global zoonotic niche and potential transmission risk is lacking.

METHODS

We established an integrated database on global monkeypox virus (MPXV) occurrence during 1958 - 2022. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to examine the evolution of MPXV and effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated over time to examine the dynamic of MPXV transmissibility. The potential ecological drivers of zoonotic transmission and inter-regional transmission risks of MPXV were examined.

RESULTS

As of 24 July 2022, a total of 49 432 human patients with MPXV infections have been reported in 78 countries. Based on 525 whole genome sequences, two main clades of MPXV were formed, of which Congo Basin clade has a higher transmissibility than West African clade before the 2022-monkeypox, estimated by the overall Rt (0.81 vs. 0.56), and the latter significantly increased in the recent decade. Rt of 2022-monkeypox varied from 1.14 to 4.24 among the 15 continuously epidemic countries outside Africa, with the top three as Peru (4.24, 95% CI: 2.89-6.71), Brazil (3.45, 95% CI: 1.62-7.00) and the United States (2.44, 95% CI: 1.62-3.60). The zoonotic niche of MPXV was associated with the distributions of Graphiurus lorraineus and Graphiurus crassicaudatus, the richness of Rodentia, and four ecoclimatic indicators. Besides endemic areas in Africa, more areas of South America, the Caribbean States, and Southeast and South Asia are ecologically suitable for the occurrence of MPXV once the virus has invaded. Most of Western Europe has a high-imported risk of monkeypox from Western Africa, whereas France and the United Kingdom have a potential imported risk of Congo Basin clade MPXV from Central Africa. Eleven of the top 15 countries with a high risk of MPXV importation from the main countries of 2022-monkeypox outbreaks are located at Europe with the highest risk in Italy, Ireland and Poland.

CONCLUSIONS

The suitable ecological niche for MPXV is not limited to Africa, and the transmissibility of MPXV was significantly increased during the 2022-monkeypox outbreaks. The imported risk is higher in Europe, both from endemic areas and currently epidemic countries. Future surveillance and targeted intervention programs are needed in its high-risk areas informed by updated prediction.