Modeling the Impact of Exogenous Boosting and Universal Varicella Vaccination on the Clinical and Economic Burden of Varicella and Herpes Zoster in a Dynamic Population for England and Wales

The clinical and economic costs associated with regional disparities in varicella vaccine coverage in Italy over 50 years (2020-2070)

Italy implemented two-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) regionally from 2003 to 2013 and nationally from 2017 onwards. Our objective was to analyze regional disparities in varicella outcomes resulting from disparities in vaccine coverage rates (VCRs) projected over a 50-year time-horizon (2020-2070). A previously published dynamic transmission model was updated to quantify the potential public health impact of the UVV program in Italy at the national and regional levels. Four 2-dose vaccine strategies utilizing monovalent (V) and quadrivalent (MMRV) vaccines were evaluated for each region: (A) MMRV-MSD/MMRV-MSD, (B) MMRV-GSK/MMRV-GSK, (C) V-MSD/MMRV-MSD, and (D) V-GSK/MMRV-GSK. Costs were reported in 2022 Euros. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted 3% annually. Under strategy A, the three regions with the lowest first-dose VCR reported increased varicella cases (+ 34.3%), hospitalizations (+ 20.0%), QALYs lost (+ 5.9%), payer costs (+ 22.2%), and societal costs (+ 14.6%) over the 50-year time-horizon compared to the three regions with highest first-dose VCR. Regions with low first-dose VCR were more sensitive to changes in VCR than high first-dose VCR regions. Results with respect to second-dose VCR were qualitatively similar, although smaller in magnitude. Results were similar across all vaccine strategies.

Universal varicella vaccination in Denmark: Modeling public health impact, age-shift, and cost-effectiveness

We modeled the long-term clinical and economic impact of two-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) strategies in Denmark using a dynamic transmission model. The cost-effectiveness of UVV was evaluated along with the impact on varicella (including age-shift) and herpes zoster burden. Six two-dose UVV strategies were compared to no vaccination, at either short (12/15 months) or medium (15/48 months) intervals. Monovalent vaccines (V-MSD or V-GSK) for the 1st dose, and either monovalent or quadrivalent vaccines (MMRV-MSD or MMRV-GSK) for the 2nd dose were considered. Compared to no vaccination, all two-dose UVV strategies reduced varicella cases by 94%-96%, hospitalizations by 93%-94%, and deaths by 91%-92% over 50 years; herpes zoster cases were also reduced by 9%. There was a decline in the total number of annual varicella cases in all age groups including adolescents and adults. All UVV strategies were cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with ICER values ranging from €18,228-€20,263/QALY (payer perspective) and €3,746-€5,937/QALY (societal perspective). The frontier analysis showed that a two-dose strategy with V-MSD (15 months) and MMRV-MSD (48 months) dominated all other strategies and was the most cost-effective. In conclusion, all modeled two-dose UVV strategies were projected to substantially reduce the clinical and economic burden of varicella disease in Denmark compared to the current no vaccination strategy, with declines in both varicella and zoster incidence for all age groups over a 50-year time horizon.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella under Different Immunisation Strategies in Suzhou Prefecture, Jiangsu Province

Background: The varicella vaccine is excluded from the Chinese national immunisation programme but is included in the local expanded programme on immunisation (EPI) in the Suzhou Prefecture. This study investigated the epidemiological characteristics of the varicella cases during the implementation of different immunisation strategies in the Suzhou Prefecture, Jiangsu Province. Methods: In this study, we used descriptive statistics. Information on reported instances from 2012 to 2021 was first retrieved. Data on varicella cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Similarly, information on vaccinated children was obtained from the Jiangsu Province Vaccination Integrated Service Management Information System (JPVISMIS). The census data in this study was procured from the Suzhou Bureau of Statistics. Results: From 2012 to 2021, a total of 118,031 cases of varicella were reported in Suzhou, and the average annual reported incidence was 91.35 per 100,000. The average yearly incidence after implementing the two-dose varicella vaccination decreased by 41.57% compared with the implementation of one dose. This study demonstrates two annual incidence peaks, a small peak between April and July and a prominent peak between October and January. It is also possible that this seasonal distribution is related to the geography of Suzhou. The average annual reported incidence between districts with a statistically significant difference (χ2 = 98.077, p < 0.05). The one-dose varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased from 55.34% in 2012 to 89.06% in 2021 and the two-dose varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased from 0.27% in 2012 to 82.17% in 2021. Conclusions: Administering the varicella vaccine in the local EPI has significantly decreased the incidence rate and the total number of cases. A two-dose vaccination schedule is still the best vaccination strategy for varicella vaccine effectiveness.