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Black B, Thaw DB. Vaccinating against a Novel Pathogen: A Critical Review of COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Evidence. Microorganisms 2023; 12:89. [PMID: 38257917 PMCID: PMC10820171 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms12010089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2023] [Revised: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
We study the experience with COVID-19 vaccination of an initially naïve population, which can inform planning for vaccination against the next novel, highly transmissible pathogen. We focus on the first two pandemic years (wild strain through Delta), because after the Omicron wave in early 2022, very few people were still SARS-CoV-2-naïve. Almost all were vaccinated, infected, or often both. We review the evidence on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) and waning effectiveness over time and the relative effectiveness of the four principal vaccines used in developed Western countries: BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA1273 (Moderna), Ad26.CoV2.S (Johnson&Johnson), and ChAdOx1-S (AstraZeneca). As a basis for our analysis, we conducted a PRISMA-compliant review of all studies on PubMed through 15 August 2022, reporting VE against four endpoints for these four vaccines: any infection, symptomatic infection, hospitalization, and death. The mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2, mRNA1273) had high initial VE against all endpoints but protection waned after approximately six months, with BNT162b2 declining faster than mRNA1273. Both mRNA vaccines outperformed the viral vector vaccines (Ad26.CoV2.S and ChAdOx1-S). A third "booster" dose, roughly six months after the initial doses, substantially reduced symptomatic infection, hospitalization, and death. In hindsight, a third dose should be seen as part of the normal vaccination schedule. Our analysis highlights the importance of the real-time population-level surveillance needed to assess evidence for waning, and the need for rapid regulatory response to this evidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernard Black
- Pritzker School of Law and Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60201, USA
| | - David B. Thaw
- School of Computing & Information and School of Law, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15260, USA
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Black B, Atanasov V, Glatman-Freedman A, Keinan-Boker L, Reichman A, Franchi L, Meurer J, Luo Q, Thaw DB, Moghtaderi A. COVID-19 Boosters: If The US Had Matched Israel's Speed And Take-Up, An Estimated 29,000 US Lives Would Have Been Saved. Health Aff (Millwood) 2023; 42:1747-1757. [PMID: 38048511 DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2023.00718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/06/2023]
Abstract
Israel was the first country to launch COVID-19 boosters, in late July 2021, with strong public health messaging. The booster campaign reversed rising infection rates from the Delta variant and reduced hospitalizations and deaths. The US booster rollout was slower, and public health messaging was mixed. We used the Israeli experience to ask the counterfactual question: How many lives could the US have saved if it had authorized boosters sooner? We estimated that through June 30, 2022, if the US had moved at Israel's speed and booster take-up percentages, it would have saved 29,000 lives. US regulatory caution, in the middle of a pandemic, thus had a large, avoidable cost. Yet the US booster rollout still avoided 42,000 deaths. Moving more slowly to approve boosters, as some advocated, would have cost many additional lives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernard Black
- Bernard Black , Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Vladimir Atanasov
- Vladimir Atanasov, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia
| | | | | | | | | | - John Meurer
- John Meurer, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
| | - Qian Luo
- Qian Luo, George Washington University, Washington, D.C
| | - David B Thaw
- David B. Thaw, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
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Rosso A, Flacco ME, Soldato G, Di Martino G, Acuti Martellucci C, Carota R, De Benedictis M, Di Marco G, Di Luzio R, Fiore M, Caponetti A, Manzoli L. COVID-19 Vaccination Effectiveness in the General Population of an Italian Province: Two Years of Follow-Up. Vaccines (Basel) 2023; 11:1325. [PMID: 37631893 PMCID: PMC10459219 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11081325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2023] [Revised: 07/30/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/29/2023] Open
Abstract
We carried out a cohort study on the overall population of the province of Pescara, Italy, to assess the real-world effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination against infection, severe, or lethal COVID-19, two years after the start of the vaccination campaign. We included all the resident or domiciled subjects, and extracted the official demographic, vaccination, COVID-19, hospital and co-pay exemption datasets from 1 January 2021, up to 15 February 2023. Cox proportional hazards analyses were adjusted for gender, age, diabetes, hypertension, COPD, major cardio- and cerebrovascular events, cancer, and kidney diseases. Throughout the follow-up (466 days on average), 186,676 subjects received greater than or equal to three vaccine doses (of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, NVX-CoV2373, or JNJ-78436735), 47,610 two doses, 11,452 one dose, and 44,989 none. Overall, 40.4% of subjects were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of them, 2.74% had severe or lethal (1.30%) COVID-19. As compared to the unvaccinated, the individuals who received greater than or equal to one booster dose showed a ≥85% lower risk of severe or lethal COVID-19. A massive impact of vaccination was found among the elderly: 22.0% of the unvaccinated, infected individuals died, as opposed to less than 3% of those who received greater than or equal to three vaccine doses. No protection against infection was observed, although this finding was certainly influenced by the Italian restriction policies to control the pandemic. Importantly, during the Omicron predominance period, only the group who received at least a booster dose showed a reduced risk of COVID-19-related death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annalisa Rosso
- Department of Environmental and Prevention Sciences, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, Italy; (A.R.); (C.A.M.)
| | - Maria Elena Flacco
- Department of Environmental and Prevention Sciences, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, Italy; (A.R.); (C.A.M.)
| | - Graziella Soldato
- Local Health Unit of Pescara, 65124 Pescara, Italy; (G.S.); (G.D.M.); (R.C.); (M.D.B.); (G.D.M.); (R.D.L.); (A.C.)
| | - Giuseppe Di Martino
- Local Health Unit of Pescara, 65124 Pescara, Italy; (G.S.); (G.D.M.); (R.C.); (M.D.B.); (G.D.M.); (R.D.L.); (A.C.)
| | - Cecilia Acuti Martellucci
- Department of Environmental and Prevention Sciences, University of Ferrara, 44121 Ferrara, Italy; (A.R.); (C.A.M.)
| | - Roberto Carota
- Local Health Unit of Pescara, 65124 Pescara, Italy; (G.S.); (G.D.M.); (R.C.); (M.D.B.); (G.D.M.); (R.D.L.); (A.C.)
| | - Marco De Benedictis
- Local Health Unit of Pescara, 65124 Pescara, Italy; (G.S.); (G.D.M.); (R.C.); (M.D.B.); (G.D.M.); (R.D.L.); (A.C.)
| | - Graziano Di Marco
- Local Health Unit of Pescara, 65124 Pescara, Italy; (G.S.); (G.D.M.); (R.C.); (M.D.B.); (G.D.M.); (R.D.L.); (A.C.)
| | - Rossano Di Luzio
- Local Health Unit of Pescara, 65124 Pescara, Italy; (G.S.); (G.D.M.); (R.C.); (M.D.B.); (G.D.M.); (R.D.L.); (A.C.)
| | - Matteo Fiore
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, 40100 Bologna, Italy;
| | - Antonio Caponetti
- Local Health Unit of Pescara, 65124 Pescara, Italy; (G.S.); (G.D.M.); (R.C.); (M.D.B.); (G.D.M.); (R.D.L.); (A.C.)
| | - Lamberto Manzoli
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, 40100 Bologna, Italy;
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Atanasov V, Barreto N, Whittle J, Meurer J, Weston BW, Luo QE, Yuan AY, Franchi L, Zhang R, Black B. Selection Effects and COVID-19 Mortality Risk after Pfizer vs. Moderna Vaccination: Evidence from Linked Mortality and Vaccination Records. Vaccines (Basel) 2023; 11:vaccines11050971. [PMID: 37243075 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11050971] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Revised: 05/02/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Prior research generally finds that the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) and Moderna (mRNA1273) COVID-19 vaccines provide similar protection against mortality, sometimes with a Moderna advantage due to slower waning. However, most comparisons do not address selection effects for those who are vaccinated and with which vaccine. We report evidence on large selection effects, and use a novel method to control for these effects. Instead of directly studying COVID-19 mortality, we study the COVID-19 excess mortality percentage (CEMP), defined as the COVID-19 deaths divided by non-COVID-19 natural deaths for the same population, converted to a percentage. The CEMP measure uses non-COVID-19 natural deaths to proxy for population health and control for selection effects. We report the relative mortality risk (RMR) for each vaccine relative to the unvaccinated population and to the other vaccine, using linked mortality and vaccination records for all adults in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, from 1 April 2021 through 30 June 2022. For two-dose vaccinees aged 60+, RMRs for Pfizer vaccinees were consistently over twice those for Moderna, and averaged 248% of Moderna (95% CI = 175%,353%). In the Omicron period, Pfizer RMR was 57% versus 23% for Moderna. Both vaccines demonstrated waning of two-dose effectiveness over time, especially for ages 60+. For booster recipients, the Pfizer-Moderna gap is much smaller and statistically insignificant. A possible explanation for the Moderna advantage for older persons is the higher Moderna dose of 100 μg, versus 30 μg for Pfizer. Younger persons (aged 18-59) were well-protected against death by two doses of either vaccine, and highly protected by three doses (no deaths among over 100,000 vaccinees). These results support the importance of a booster dose for ages 60+, especially for Pfizer recipients. They suggest, but do not prove, that a larger vaccine dose may be appropriate for older persons than for younger persons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vladimir Atanasov
- Mason College of Business, William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23185, USA
| | - Natalia Barreto
- Department of Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, USA
| | - Jeff Whittle
- Medical College of Wisconsin; Milwaukee, WI 53226, USA
| | - John Meurer
- Medical College of Wisconsin; Milwaukee, WI 53226, USA
| | | | - Qian Eric Luo
- Department of Health Policy and Management, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA
| | - Andy Ye Yuan
- Pritzker School of Law, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60611, USA
| | - Lorenzo Franchi
- Pritzker School of Law, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60611, USA
| | - Ruohao Zhang
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16803, USA
| | - Bernard Black
- Pritzker School of Law, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL 60611, USA
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