Assessment of Climate Change and Associated Vegetation Cover Change on Watershed-Scale Runoff and Sediment Yield

Impact of climate change on hydrologic components using CORDEX Africa climate model in Gilgel Gibe 1 watershed Ethiopia

This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological components of Gilgel Gibe-1 using the ensemble of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) Africa Domain namely REMO2009, HIRAM5, CCLM4-8 and RCA4 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations. The performance of these RCM models was evaluated using the observed data from 1985 to 2005 and the ensemble was shown to simulate rainfall and air temperature better than individual RCMs. Then the RCMs ensemble data for historical and future projections from 2026 to 2055 years under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were corrected for bias and used to evaluate the impact of climate change. A non-linear bias correction and the monthly mean biases corrections method is used to adjust precipitation and temperature respectively. The future projection shows that; rainfall is expected to increase from August to December with maximum values of 1.97-235.23% under RCP4.5. The maximum temperature is expected to increase with maximum value of 1.62 °C under RCP8.5 in the study area. The calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrologic components such as surface runoff, lateral flow, water yield, evapotranspiration and sediment yield. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly stream flow with the statistical performance of R² value of 0.82 and NSE value of 0.72 for calibration and R² of 0.79 and NSE of 0.67 for validation. Surface runoff and sediment yield are expected to increase from August to December under RCP4.5 and from August to February under RCP8.5. Overall both surface runoff and sediment yield are expected to increase in the future.

Using morphometric analysis for assessment of flash flood susceptibility in the Mediterranean region of Turkey

Flash floods are one of the most severe natural disasters around the world because of their rapid and unpredictable nature. It is expected that the frequency and intensity of flood events will increase because of extreme rainfall events induced by climate change. In this context, the generation of a flood susceptibility map contributes to effective flood management in a basin. The present study aims to generate a flash flood susceptibility map for the Imali Stream Basin (ISB) situated within the Mediterranean region of Turkey. For this purpose, morphometric analysis, geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and principal component analysis (PCA) were used in this study. ASTER GDEM (v.3) was used to delineate 9 sub-watersheds and to obtain the required morphometric parameters. To generate a flash flood susceptibility map, the original compound values ​​calculated for each sub-watershed were transformed into values ​​between 0 and 1 by using the min-max normalization method. Then, these values were divided into 3 classes called low, moderate, and high by using the equal interval classification method in ArcGIS. According to both flash flood susceptibility maps produced by using morphometric analysis and PCA, sub-watershed 5 has the highest flash flood susceptibility in the basin. The flash flood that occurred in sub-watershed 5 in 2016 contributes to these results. Therefore, flood management based on morphometric analysis can be a highly effective method for decision-makers and planners in the Mediterranean region, one of the hotspots to be affected by climate change.

Effects of landscape conservation on the ecohydrological and water quality functions and services and their driving factors

Since the implementation of landscape conservation of the green heart area in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Metropolitan Region, the landscape structure and pattern have changed significantly. The ecosystem service functions in the area have been improved, but the status of ecohydrological and water quality and service functions (EHWQSFs) is still unclear. To clarify the status of EHWQSFs and their driving factors influenced by landscape conservation, this study analysed landscape changes using remote sensing image data from 1998, 2008, and 2018 and the changes and their spatial characteristics using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and spatial analysis methods. The results showed that the dominant land types in the area were forestland and cropland from 1998 to 2018; the area of forestland and construction land expanded and that of cropland decreased year by year; the annual average surface runoff volume rose, and the annual average actual evapotranspiration and soil water content fell from 1998 to 2008 and rose from 2008 to 2018; and all pollutant indicators decreased significantly after 2008. The areas with higher surface runoff were mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions, those with higher evapotranspiration were in the northwestern and southwestern regions, those with higher soil water content were in the northern region, and those with higher sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus pollutant contents were in the central and southeastern regions. The results showed that land use, land cover and meteorological factors were the most significant drivers on EHWQSFs and illustrated that EHWQSFs in the area decreased after 1998. There was a significant improvement after 2008 and the area currently has a good status. This study not only provides insights into land use, land cover and meteorological factors that have significant impacts on EHWQSFs but also highlights that the landscape conservation of the area can improve ecosystem service functions.

Dynamic Rule Curves and Streamflow under Climate Change for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Honey-Bee Mating Optimization

Climate change in the watershed above the reservoir has a direct impact on the quantity of streamflow that enters the reservoir and the management of water resources. Developing effective reservoir rule curves helps reduce the risk of future failures of water resource management. The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of climate change on the volume of streamflow entering the Ubolratana Reservoir, Thailand during the years 2020–2049 with climate simulations from the CIMP5 model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. SWAT models were used to forecast future reservoir streamflow quantities. Moreover, suitable reservoir rule curves using the Honey-Bee Mating Optimization (HBMO) were developed and the effectiveness of the new rule curves was assessed. According to the research findings, the average yearly streamflow in the future apparently grew from 32% in the base years (2011–2019) and 65% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was discovered that the average monthly streamflow was higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Both of the projected situations have a form compatible with the present rule curves in the section of the new reservoir rule curves generated with the HBMO. Furthermore, the newly constructed rule curves may allow the reservoir to keep more water during the rainy season, thereby assuring that there will be adequate water during the following dry season. Additionally, during the dry season, the reservoir was able to release more water that would be able to reduce the water shortage, indicating that it was able to effectively reduce the amount of water shortage and average overflow under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 situations.

A remote sensing study of spatiotemporal variations in drought conditions in northern Asir, Saudi Arabia

Changes in vegetation land cover are influenced by, and therefore an indicator of, climatic conditions. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between vegetation cover changes and drought events in a small-scale area. Six Landsat images during 1987-2019 were used to extract information about the vegetation land cover changes using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in Balqarn Governorate in the northern mountains of Asir, Saudi Arabia. Two climatic parameters, temperature and precipitation, were used as time series for the same period and were decomposed to investigate the seasonal and trend changes for each parameter. The two parameters were also used to calculate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to conduct an in-depth analysis of the drought events influencing vegetation cover. The results showed that the state of the vegetation coverage of the study area remained at a medium level with an average NDVI value, but the FVC values showed evidence of dynamic variability associated with drought and moisture events. The SPEI showed that the study area has been undergoing a long-duration drought event since 2004, ranging from light to severe drought, which was consistent with the time series decomposition results. This investigation has revealed that drought drives changes in vegetation cover and is expressed on small geographic scales as changes in the vegetation cover structure. The framework described here is simple and can be used to evaluate and manage drought risks.

Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion and Sediment Yield in a Watershed

This study analyzed the influence of climate change on sediment yield variation, sediment transport and erosion deposition distribution at the watershed scale. The study was based on Gaoping River basin, which is among the largest basins in southern Taiwan. To carry out this analysis, the Physiographic Soil Erosion Deposition (PSED) model was utilized. Model results showed a general increase in soil erosion and deposition volume under the A1B-S climate change scenario. The situation is even worsened with increasing return periods. Total erosion volume and total sediment yield in the watershed were increased by 4–25% and 8–65%, respectively, and deposition volumes increased by 2–23%. The study showed how climate change variability would influence the watershed through increased sediment yields, which might even worsen the impacts of natural disasters. It has further illustrated the importance of incorporating climate change into river management projects.

Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Sediment Yield from the Logiya Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

It is anticipated that climate change will impact sediment yield in watersheds. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on sediment yield from the Logiya watershed in the lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia. Here, we used the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa data outputs of Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Future scenarios of climate change were analyzed in two-time frames: 2020–2049 (2030s) and 2050–2079 (2060s). Both time frames were analyzed using both RCP scenarios from the baseline period (1971–2000). A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed to simulate the hydrological and the sedimentological responses to climate change. The model performance was calibrated and validated using the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). The results of the calibration and the validation of the sediment yield R2, NSE, and PBIAS were 0.83, 0.79, and −23.4 and 0.85, 0.76, and −25.0, respectively. The results of downscaled precipitation, temperature, and estimated evapotranspiration increased in both emission scenarios. These climate variable increments were expected to result in intensifications in the mean annual sediment yield of 4.42% and 8.08% for RCP4.5 and 7.19% and 10.79% for RCP8.5 by the 2030s and the 2060s, respectively.