A Comparison of Streamflow and Baseflow Responses to Land-Use Change and the Variation in Climate Parameters Using SWAT

Understanding the patterns and processes underlying water quality and pollution risk in West-Africa River using self-organizing maps and multivariate analyses

Rivers are dynamic systems in complex interactions with their surrounding environments. Reliable and fast interpretation of water quality is therefore needed for sustainable river management. Unfortunately, water quality and environmental status interactions have not yet been documented sufficiently in West-Africa. This study explored the spatial-latitudinal and seasonal features of water quality along the Sô River Basin (SRB, West Africa) using self-organizing map (SOM) and principal component analysis. Twenty-two water quality variables were measured in the surface layer at 12 different sampling sites during a twenty-four-month period from July 2016 to June 2018. The results revealed three water quality groups, following an upstream-downstream pollution gradient: (1) upstream and middle reach sites with high dissolved oxygen and Secchi disk depth values, which are more suitable for the aquatic biota; (2) downstream sites with high concentrations of ammonium, biochemical oxygen demand, and heavy metals especially in flood period, reflecting both high organic and heavy metal pollution; and (3) brackish downstream sites characterized by less heavy metal and organic pollutions. No significant variation was observed between seasons. However, the SRB relatively suffered from higher risks of heavy metal contamination and organic pollution in wet seasons. Although hydroclimatic processes affect the water quality, anthropogenic inputs of point and non-point sources were identified and discussed as a more prominent factor contributing to variation in the water quality condition. These results offer insights into the water quality dynamics in river-estuary system as well as potential pollution sources, crucial for defining sanitation, and management measures.

Potential effects of Land Use Land Cover Change on streamflow over the Sokoto Rima River Basin

This research investigated the effects of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) over the Sokoto Rima River Basin (SRRB) using a setup of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model to generate the parameters to force WRF hydrological (WRF-Hydro) model which comprises of a parent domain at 12km horizontal resolution with an updated MODIS Land Use (LU) data and the nested domain at 4km resolution which focuses on the SRRB. The calibration of the model was done by modifying the infiltration and the Manning's roughness parameters. WRF-Hydro model was used to run simulations with the control LU and five different LU scenarios generated for Urban (Ur), Grassland (Gr), Savanna (Sa), Forest (Fr) and Barren (Ba). For the period analysed, simulation with Gr scenario increased streamflow in all the forecast points, while the Sa decreases it. A strong correlation was noted between the input precipitation and streamflow for all LU scenarios, and a significant Specific Discharge to Rainfall (SDR) for Ur, Fr and Ba scenarios. There was an increase in streamflow in the dry period due to afforestation and a decrease due to deforestation. Areas where grasslands were converted into savanna showed a little increase in evapotranspiration ET. There was more ET for the Sa scenario than the Gr scenario in the wet period, while there was more ET in the dry period for Gr scenario than it is for the Sa scenario. The study has shown that ET is a major factor to changes in streamflow due to LU changes over the basin. The sensitivity of the model to LULCC is reasonable, but more research is recommended to compare results with different hydrological model popularly used for LULCC impact studies.

Forest Fires, Land Use Changes and Their Impact on Hydrological Balance in Temperate Forests of Central Mexico

Temperate forests play a fundamental role in the provision, regulation, and support of hydrological environmental services, but they are subject to constant changes in land use (clearing, overgrazing, deforestation, and forest fires) that upset the hydrological balance. Through scenarios simulated with the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model, the present study analyzes the effects of forest fires and land use changes on the hydrological balance in the microwatersheds of central Mexico. The land use changes that took place between 1995 and 2021 were estimated, and projections based on the current scenario were made. Two trend scenarios were proposed for 2047: one with a positive trend (forest permanence) and the other with a negative trend (loss of cover from forest fires). The results show that with permanence or an increase in forest area, the surface runoff would decrease by 48.2%, increasing the base flow by 37% and the soil moisture by 2.3%. If forest is lost, surface runoff would increase up to 454%, and soil moisture would decrease by 27%. If the current forest decline trends continue, then there will be negative alterations in hydrological processes: a reduction in the interception of precipitation by the canopy and an increase in the velocity and flow of surface runoff, among others. The final result will be a lower amount of water being infiltrated into the soil and stored in the subsoil. The provision of hydrological environmental services depends on the maintenance of forest cover.

Study on the Impact of Land-Use Change on Runoff Variation Trend in Luojiang River Basin, China

To reveal the influence process of land use changes on runoff variation trends, this paper takes the Luojiang River of China as the study area, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the impact of different land uses on runoff formation in the watershed, and used the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model to predict future land use scenarios and runoff change trends. The results show that: (1) the SWAT model can simulate the runoff in the Luojiang River basin; (2) the runoff in the Luojiang River basin has a decreasing trend in recent 10 years, caused by the decrease of rainfall and runoff due to changes in land use; (3) the forecast shows that the land-use changes in the basin will lead to an increase in runoff coefficient in 2025. The increase of the runoff coefficient will bring some adverse effects, and relevant measures should be taken to increase the water storage capacity of urban areas. This study can help plan future management strategies for the study area land coverage and put forward a preventive plan for the possible adverse situation of runoff variation.

Responses of surface water quality to future land cover and climate changes in the Neka River basin, Northern Iran

The spatial and temporal dimensions of environmental impacts of climate and land cover changes are two significant factors altering hydrological processes. Studying the effects of these factors on water quality, provides important insight for water resource management and optimizing land planning given increasing water scarcity and water pollution. The impact of land cover and climate changes on surface water quality was assessed for the Neka River basin in Northern Iran. The widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied for pollutant modeling, and was calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. An ensemble of 17 CMIP5 climate models under two IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios were selected, and future land cover change (LCC) was modeled based on the evolution that occurred in the last decades. We simulated the impacts of climate change (CC) and LCC on sediment, nitrate, and phosphate for the 2035-2065 time slice. The annual loads of sediment, phosphate, and nitrate are projected to decrease under both CC scenarios based on the inter-model average, and generally follow a pattern similar to the change in river discharge. Nitrate concentrations show an increase across all seasons, while the sediment and phosphate concentrations increase in winter and autumn under CC conditions. Results indicate that pollutants are expected to increase under LCC alone, mainly due to the expansion of the cultivated areas. Overall, it seems CC has a greater impact than LCC on the variation of water quality variables in the Neka River basin. With a combined change in climate and land cover, the annual nitrate concentrations are expected to increase by + 19.7% and + 17.9%, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The combined impacts of the CC and LCC caused a decline in the annual sediment and phosphate concentrations by -10.1% and -2.2% under RCP 4.5 and -9%, and -3.2% under RCP 8.5, respectively.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies for Flood Risk Reduction in the Segamat River Basin, Malaysia

Flooding is a frequent, naturally recurring phenomenon worldwide that can become disastrous if not addressed accordingly. This paper aims to evaluate the impacts of land use change and climate change on flooding in the Segamat River Basin, Johor, Malaysia, with 1D–2D hydrodynamic river modeling, using InfoWorks Integrated Catchment Modeling (ICM). The study involved the development of flood maps for four different scenarios: (1) future land use in 2030; (2) the impacts of climate change; (3) three mitigation strategies comprising detention ponds, rainwater harvesting systems (RWHSs), and permeable pavers; and (4) a combination of these three mitigation strategies. The obtained results show increases in the flood peaks under both the land use change and climate change scenarios. With the anticipated increase in development activities within the vicinity up to 2030, the overall impact of urbanization on the extent of flooding would be rather moderate, as the upper and middle parts of the basin would still be dominated by forests and agricultural activities (approximately 81.13%). In contrast, the potential flood-inundated area is expected to increase from 12.25% to 16.64% under storms of 10-, 50-, 100-, and 1000-year average recurrence intervals (ARI). Interestingly, the simulation results suggest that only the detention pond mitigation strategy has a considerable impact on reducing floods, while the other two mitigation strategies have less flood reduction advantages for this agricultural-based rural basin located in a tropical region.

Influence of Land Use Change on Hydrological Cycle: Application of SWAT to Su-Mi-Huai Area in Beijing, China

The human activities and urbanization process have changed the underlying surface of urban areas, which would affect the recharge of groundwater through rainfall infiltration and may further influence the groundwater environment. Accordingly, it is imperative to investigate the variation of hydrological cycle under the condition of underlying surface change. Based on the high-precision remote sensing data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, this work firstly studied the land use change and the corresponding changes in runoff generation mechanism and rainfall infiltration coefficient in Su-Mi-Huai area, Beijing, China. Meanwhile, SWAT-MODFLOW semi-loose coupling model was applied to analyze the water balance in the study area in typical hydrological years. The results showed that the area of the construction land (urban and rural residential land) increased by 1.04 times from 2000 to 2015, which is mainly attributed to the conversion of cultivated land to construction land in the plain area. This change caused the runoff in the area to increase by 7 × 106 m3, the runoff coefficient increased by 17.9%, and the precipitation infiltration coefficient was less than the empirical value determined by lithology. Compared with 2000, the average annual precipitation infiltration coefficient in 2018 decreased by 6.5%. Under the influence of urbanization process, the maximum reduction rate of precipitation infiltration recharge is up to 38%. The study investigated the response of surface runoff and precipitation infiltration recharge to land use change, which can provide helps for water resources managers to coordinate the relationship between land use change and rational water resources planning.