Water Consumption of Agriculture and Natural Ecosystems along the Ili River in China and Kazakhstan

Analysis on Management Policies on Water Quantity Conflict in Transboundary Rivers Embedded with Virtual Water—Using Ili River as the Case

Current studies neglect how virtual water transfer (VWT) between countries within a drainage basin affects water stress and then yields an invisible effect on the water quantity conflict in transboundary rivers, which would further make management policies on water quantity conflict less fair and reasonable. Therefore, this study first constructs the Inequality Index of VWT and water stress index (WSI) to assess water stress. Next, different types are set according to the Inequality Index and WSI to analyze management policies, with Ili River as the case. Results show: (1) Within the study period, from 1996, the Inequality Index of VWT between China and Kazakhstan stayed at 0.368 (0.368 < 0.5), indicating a relatively high inequality of VWT between the two countries—China at a disadvantage, while Kazakhstan having the upper hand. (2) According to the remotely sensed data, WSI in the riparian zones of the Ili River rose from 0.288 to 0421 in China, and 0214 to 0.402 in Kazakhstan, showing intermediate scarcity. (3) China and Kazakhstan both fall into Type 2, and Kazakhstan has the advantageous position. Therefore, while allocating the water resources of the Ili River, Kazakhstan should lower its expectation and proactively ask to exchange benefits in other aspects to reverse the outward transfer of its physical water. In addition, the two countries should find suitable ways to go about water rights trading to reduce the possibility of potential water quantity conflict.

A Novel Antimicrobial Metabolite Produced by Paenibacillus apiarius Isolated from Brackish Water of Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan

Four aerobic bacteria with bacteriolytic capabilities were isolated from the brackish water site Strait Uzynaral of Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan. The morphology and physiology of the bacterial isolates have subsequently been analyzed. Using matrix assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrum and partial 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses, three of the isolates have been identified as Pseudomonas veronii and one as Paenibacillus apiarius. We determined the capability of both species to lyse pre-grown cells of the Gram-negative strains Pseudomonas putida SBUG 24 and Escherichia coli SBUG 13 as well as the Gram-positive strains Micrococcus luteus SBUG 16 and Arthrobacter citreus SBUG 321 on solid media. The bacteriolysis process was analyzed by creating growth curves and electron micrographs of co-cultures with the bacteriolytic isolates and the lysis sensitive strain Arthrobacter citreus SBUG 321 in nutrient-poor liquid media. One metabolite of Paenibacillus apiarius was isolated and structurally characterized by various chemical structure determination methods. It is a novel antibiotic substance.

Invisible Effect of Virtual Water Transfer on Water Quantity Conflict in Transboundary Rivers—Taking Ili River as a Case

Water stress in countries within a drainage basin exacerbates the water quantity conflict in transboundary rivers. However, few studies considered the invisible effect of virtual water transfer on water quantity conflict by intensifying water stress. Therefore, this study, with Ili River as the case, collects data on Virtual Water Trade (VWT) from 1990 to 2015, uses water stress index (WSI) to assess water stress values under two scenarios (with or without virtual water transfer), and takes Grey Verhulst Model to predict two scenarios water stress values respectively. Next, based on the Levenberg—Marquardt (LM) Algorithm, this study compares the water quantity conflict intensity of the two scenarios, and further explores the invisible effect of virtual water transfer on the conflicts among transboundary rivers. Results show: (1) During the study period (1990–2015), water stress in China and Kazakhstan along the banks of Ili River increased in general. (2) China was basically a net exporter of virtual water during 1990–1995, and Kazakhstan became a net exporter after 1995. (3) During 2020–2025, water conflict value of Ili River without virtual water transfer is 0.458, while the value rises to 0.622 with virtual water transfer, indicating that virtual water transfer between China and Kazakhstan has an invisible enhancement on the water quantity conflict of Ili River. (4) The intensified water quantity conflict is mainly caused by the more and more serious water stress in Kazakhstan. On such basis, it is more urgent for Kazakhstan to restructure its economy and trade.

The Changing Dynamics of Kazakhstan’s Fisheries Sector: From the Early Soviet Era to the Twenty-First Century

Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic that is now independent, lies near the center of arid Eurasia. Its sparse hydrographic network includes a small number of large rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, many ponds and smaller streams, as well as littoral zones bordering the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea. A diverse fisheries sector, initially based on wild fish capture and later including aquaculture, developed in these waters during the Soviet era, when animal agriculture was unable to meet the protein needs of Soviet citizens. The sector, which was originally centered on the Volga–Caspian basin, was tightly managed by Moscow and benefitted from coordinated investments in research, infrastructure, and human resources, as well as policies to increase the consumption of fish products. Independence in 1991 administered a political and economic shock that disrupted these relationships. Kazakhstan’s wild fish harvests plummeted by more than two-thirds, and aquaculture collapsed to just 3% of its previous level. Per capita consumption of fish products also declined, as did processing capacity. Favorable recent policies to define fishing rights, incentivize investments, prevent illegal fishing, and make stocking more effective have helped to reverse these trends and stabilize the sector. Continued recovery will require additional steps to manage water resources sustainably, prioritize the use of water for fish habitats, and minimize the effects of climate change. This comprehensive assessment of Kazakhstan’s fisheries sector over the past century provides the basis to understand how long-term dynamic interactions of the environment with the political economy influence fisheries in Eurasia’s largest country.

Evolution of landscape pattern and the association with ecosystem services in the Ili-Balkhash Basin

The Ili-Balkhash Basin in Central Asia is an arid endorheic basin shared by China and Kazakhstan. Population growth, socio-economic development, ecological conservation measures, and climate change have spurred land use and land cover changes and ecosystem services variations. This study used the long-term dataset from 1992 to 2018 to detect the landscape pattern evolution and its association with ecosystem services. The landscape pattern was quantified using landscape metrics, and the GeoDetector model quantified the driving factors of landscape pattern evolution. The ecosystem service value was assessed using the benefit transfer method. The time series trend was identified by the linear regression analysis combined with the Mann-Kendall algorithm, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to confirm the correlation. The temporal dynamics of the landscape pattern indicated the significant conversion of bare land to grassland. Cropland and urban land expanded significantly at the expense of forestland, grassland, and bare land. Various landscape elements tended to be more uniformly distributed across the basin with more regular shape and higher aggregation. The ecosystem service value increased significantly, and its correlation with the landscape pattern varied according to land use and land cover (LULC) types. The weakened shape complexity, the strengthened aggregation degree, and the more uniform distribution of different LULC types helped elevate total ecosystem service value. The results advanced the understanding of landscape pattern evolution and provided the scientific reference for land management regarding ecosystem services. Given the watershed ecosystem's integrity, transboundary cooperation between China and Kazakhstan was suggested to reinforce watershed sustainability through integrated watershed land resource planning and the joint adaptive strategies to climate change.

Residues of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in waters of the Ili-Balkhash Basin, arid Central Asia: Concentrations and risk assessment

Release and transport of contaminants in watersheds can have adverse effects on aquatic organisms and human health. Little attention, however, has been paid to chemical contamination of aquatic environments in arid regions by persistent organic pollutants. We analyzed the concentrations and distributions of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in waters of the Ili-Balkhash Basin, in arid central Asia. ΣOCP concentrations ranged from 4.02 to 122.80 ng L^-1 and ΣPAH concentrations were between 7.58 and 70.98 ng L^-1. On a global scale, OCP and PAH concentrations in waters of the Ili-Balkhash system were relatively low, with only a few exceptions, i.e., highest concentrations near cities and relatively high values in some headwater areas. Source identification revealed that the dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) may come from recent use, whereas endosulfans stem from historic applications. Lindane, a common insecticide, may be responsible for hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs). Low-molecular-weight PAHs, primarily originating from wood and coal combustion and petroleum-derived sources, were the primary components of PAHs in waters. Furthermore, the primary sources of PAHs at different sites were identified using a Positive Matrix Factorization model: 1) oil leakage (33.9%), 2) biomass burning (29.5%), 3) coal combustion (22.6%), and 4) petroleum-powered vehicles (14.1%). Agricultural, industrial and domestic activities are all potential pollution sources. Besides, contaminated headwater areas indicate that long-range transport has probably become a non-negligible mechanism for pollutant distribution. Risk assessment showed low to moderate toxicity for aquatic organisms, but no marked carcinogenic or non-carcinogenic risks for human health.

Evaluating Vulnerability of Central Asian Water Resources under Uncertain Climate and Development Conditions: The Case of the Ili-Balkhash Basin

The Ili-Balkhash basin (IBB) is considered a key region for agricultural development and international transport as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The IBB is exemplary for the combined challenge of climate change and shifts in water supply and demand in transboundary Central Asian closed basins. To quantify future vulnerability of the IBB to these changes, we employ a scenario-neutral bottom-up approach with a coupled hydrological-water resource modelling set-up on the RiverWare modelling platform. This study focuses on reliability of environmental flows under historical hydro-climatic variability, future hydro-climatic change and upstream water demand development. The results suggest that the IBB is historically vulnerable to environmental shortages, and any increase in water consumption will increase frequency and intensity of shortages. Increases in precipitation and temperature improve reliability of flows downstream, along with water demand reductions upstream and downstream. Of the demand scenarios assessed, extensive water saving is most robust to climate change. However, the results emphasize the competition for water resources among up- and downstream users and between sectors in the lower Ili, underlining the importance of transboundary water management to mitigate cross-border impacts. The modelling tool and outcomes may aid decision-making under the uncertain future in the basin.

Quality of Drinking Water in the Balkhash District of Kazakhstan’s Almaty Region

The thinly populated Balkhash District of Kazakhstan’s Almaty Region lies in the lower reaches of the Ili-Balkhash basin, which is shared by China and Kazakhstan. The district is arid and heavily dependent on inflows of surface water, which are threatened by the effects of upstream population growth, economic development, and climate change. The quality of drinking water from centralized water systems and tube wells in nine villages of the district was analyzed, and the organoleptic properties of water from these sources was also assessed by an expert and via surveys of local residents. Although most samples met governmental standards for the absence of chemical impurities, high concentrations of mineralization, chlorides, boron, iron, and/or uranium were present in some well water samples. Levels of these pollutants were as much as 4-fold higher than governmental maxima and as much as 16-fold higher than concentrations reported previously in surface water. All centralized water samples met standards for absence of microbial contamination, but total microbial counts in some well water samples exceeded standards. Organoleptic standards were met by all the water from five villages, but centralized water from one village and well water from four villages failed to meet standards based on expert judgment. Residents were, for the most part, more satisfied with centralized rather than well water, but there was no obvious relationship between the failure of water to meet standards and the locations or populations of the settlements. This is the first comprehensive assessment of groundwater used for drinking in the lower Ili-Balkhash basin, and although it relies on a limited number of samples, it nevertheless provides evidence of potentially serious groundwater contamination in the Balkhash District. It is thus imperative that additional and more detailed studies be undertaken.

Tree Wind Breaks in Central Asia and Their Effects on Agricultural Water Consumption

Across Central Asia, agriculture largely depends on irrigation due to arid and semi-arid climatic conditions. Water is abstracted from rivers, which are largely fed by glacier melt. In the course of climate change, glaciers melt down so that a reduced glacier volume and reduced water runoffs are expected to be available for irrigation. Tree wind breaks are one option to reduce water consumption in irrigated agriculture and build resilience against climate change. This paper therefore assesses the water consumption of major crops in Kyrgyzstan and adjacent areas, i.e., cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), corn (Zea mays L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) in combination with tree wind breaks. Crop water consumption was assessed through the Penman Monteith approach. Tree wind break types investigated were single rows from poplars (Populus spec.) and multiple rows with understory vegetation by elm (Ulmus minor L.) and poplar, respectively. Tree water consumption was determined through sapflow measurements. The seasonal reference evapotranspiration (ETo) for field crops was 876–995 mm without wind breaks and dropped to less than half through multiple row wind breaks with understory vegetation (50 m spacing). Tree water consumption was 1125–1558 mm for poplar and 435 mm for elm. Among the wind break crop systems, elm wind breaks resulted in the highest reductions of water consumption, followed by single row poplars, at spacing of 50 and 100 m, respectively. However, elm grows much slower than poplar, so poplars might be more attractive for farmers. Furthermore, single row wind breaks might by much easier to be integrated into the agrarian landscape as they consume less space.

Irrigation in the Ili River Basin of Central Asia: From Ditches to Dams and Diversion

Central Asia’s Ili River is fed by mountain streams that flow down into an isolated and arid basin that today is shared by Kazakhstan and China. Agriculture in the basin is dependent upon irrigation, which was practiced as long ago as the Iron Age, when early pastoralists constructed ditches to channel water from streams onto nearby fields. Irrigation had become much more common by the 18th century, when the region was controlled by the Dzungarian Khanate. The khanate was toppled by the Qing Chinese in the 1750s in the first of a series of confrontations that destroyed and then rebuilt the basin’s agricultural economy. The region has since been dominated by a succession of Chinese and Russian (and later Soviet and independent Kazakh) governments, each of which recognized the essential role of irrigated agriculture in maintaining control. Thus every cycle of destruction led to reclamation of new lands, resettlement of farmers and upgrading of infrastructure to expand irrigation. This allowed an impressive diversity of fruits, vegetables and field crops to be grown, especially on loess soils of the more fertile upper basin, where tributaries could be easily tapped by gravity flow. Many of these tributaries were entirely diverted by the 19th century, so that they no longer reached the Ili. Large scale irrigation commenced in the 1960s, when the Soviets built Kapchagai dam and reservoir in the lower part of the basin and installed pumps to raise water from the Ili River onto nearby reclaimed sierozem soils, mostly for cultivation of rice. China later constructed a cluster of small- and medium-sized dams that enabled expansion of agriculture in the upper part of the basin. Many irrigated areas along the lower reaches of the Ili in Kazakhstan have been abandoned, but irrigation in the upper basin continues to expand. Declining soil fertility, salinization, pollution, insufficient inflows and adverse economic conditions currently challenge irrigation across the entire basin. Investments are being made in new technologies as a means to sustain irrigated agriculture in the basin, but it remains to be seen if these strategies will be successful.

Spatio-Temporal Reorganization of Cropland Development in Central Asia during the Post-Soviet Era: A Sustainable Implication in Kazakhstan

The abandonment and cultivation of croplands in the Eurasian Steppe has become the focus of global and regional food security and agricultural policy-making. A large area of cropland in some post-Soviet countries has proven to be abandoned with the disintegration of the Soviet Union; however, it is unclear as to whether Kazakhstan also experienced a similar change as one of the main food providers for the former Soviet Union. In this study, we used the annual land cover dataset (1992–2015) from the European Space Agency, Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) to detect spatio-temporal characteristics of rainfed and irrigated cropland changes in Kazakhstan. The Mann–Kendall test and regime shift analysis showed that rainfed and irrigated cropland at national level had a significant increasing trend with a significant rising up to 1999 and stagnation during 2000–2015, which was further confirmed with analysis at 14 regions. The greatest contributor to rainfed and irrigated croplands was steppes, followed by shrinkage of water bodies since 2005 to a great extent, rapid urbanization process resulted in losses of a part of irrigated oases. The trend surface analysis indicated that reorganized stable pattern characterized by rainfed cropland in north and irrigated cropland in south was driven by the strategy of the gradual agricultural development of oases. The nonexistence of cycle between the abandonment and recultivation proved that newly-gained cropland from steppe may be less degraded and more productive for sustainable land use in Kazakhstan. In conclusion, this study can provide strong evidence for sustainable land use and a basis for food security policy-making in Kazakhstan, and even all of the Central Asian countries in the future.