Emergency department Modified Early Warning Score association with admission, admission disposition, mortality, and length of stay

Optimal timing for the Modified Early Warning Score for prediction of short-term critical illness in the acute care chain: a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is an effective tool to identify patients in the acute care chain who are likely to deteriorate. Although it is increasingly being implemented in the ED, the optimal moment to use the MEWS is unknown. This study aimed to determine at what moment in the acute care chain MEWS has the highest accuracy in predicting critical illness.

METHODS

Adult patients brought by ambulance to the ED at both locations of the Amsterdam UMC, a level 1 trauma centre, were prospectively included between 11 March and 28 October 2021. MEWS was calculated using vital parameters measured prehospital, at ED presentation, 1 hour and 3 hours thereafter, imputing for missing temperature and/or consciousness, as these values were expected not to deviate. Critical illness was defined as requiring intensive care unit admission, myocardial infarction or death within 72 hours after ED presentation. Accuracy in predicting critical illness was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Of the 790 included patients, critical illness occurred in 90 (11.4%). MEWS based on vital parameters at ED presentation had the highest performance in predicting critical illness with an AUROC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.79) but did not significantly differ compared with other moments. Patients with an increasing MEWS over time are significantly more likely to become critical ill compared with patients with an improving MEWS.

CONCLUSION

The performance of MEWS is moderate in predicting critical illness using vital parameters measured surrounding ED admission. However, an increase of MEWS during ED admission is correlated with the development of critical illness. Therefore, early recognition of deteriorating patients at the ED may be achieved by frequent MEWS calculation. Further studies should investigate the effect of continuous monitoring of these patients at the ED.

Recovery to normal vital functions and acid-base status after a severe trauma in Level I versus Level II Trauma Centres

PURPOSE

In the Netherlands, approximately 70% of severely injured patients (ISS ≥ 16) are transported directly to a Level I trauma center. This study compared the time needed to return to normal vital parameters and normal acid-base status in severely injured patients and some in-hospital processes in Level I versus Level II trauma centers.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included all adult severely injured patients or adult trauma patients admitted to the intensive care unit between 2015 and 2020 in a Dutch trauma region. The primary endpoint was time until normal vital parameters and acid-base status. Secondary endpoints were complication rate, hospital length of stay, emergency department length of stay, and time until a computed tomography (CT) scan.

RESULTS

A total of 2345 patients were included. Patients admitted to a Level I trauma center had a significantly higher rate of normalization of vital parameters over time (HR 1.51). There was no significant difference in normalization rate of the acid-base status over time (HR 1.10). In Level I trauma centers, time spent at the emergency department and time until the CT scan was significantly shorter (respectively, β - 38 min and β - 77 min), and the complication rate was significantly lower (OR 0.35).

CONCLUSION

Severely injured patients admitted to a Level I trauma center require less time to normalize their vital functions. Level I centers are better equipped, resulting in better in-hospital processes with shorter time at the emergency department and shorter time until a CT scan.

Medical Admission Prediction Score (MAPS); a simple tool to predict medical admissions in the emergency department

INTRODUCTION

Overcrowding in the emergency departments (ED) is linked to adverse clinical outcomes, a negative impact on patient safety, patient satisfaction, and physician efficiency. We aimed to design a medical admission prediction scoring system based on readily available clinical data during ED presentation.

METHODS

In this retrospective cross-sectional study, data on ED presentations and medical admissions were extracted from the Emergency and Internal Medicine departments of a tertiary care facility in Qatar. Primary outcome was medical admission.

RESULTS

Of 320299 ED presentations, 218772 were males (68.3%). A total of 11847 (3.7%) medical admissions occurred. Most patients were Asians (53.7%), followed by Arabs (38.7%). Patients who got admitted were older than those who did not (p <0.001). Admitted patients were predominantly males (56.8%), had a higher number of comorbid conditions and a higher frequency of recent discharge (within the last 30 days) (p <0.001). Age > 60 years, female gender, discharge within the last 30 days, and worse vital signs at presentations were independently associated with higher odds of admission (p<0.001). These factors generated the scoring system with a cut-off of >17, area under the curve (AUC) 0.831 (95% CI 0.827-0.836), and a predictive accuracy of 83.3% (95% CI 83.2-83.4). The model had a sensitivity of 69.1% (95% CI 68.2-69.9), specificity was 83.9% (95% CI 83.7-84.0), positive predictive value (PPV) 14.2% (95% CI 13.8-14.4), negative predictive value (NPV) 98.6% (95% CI 98.5-98.7) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 4.28% (95% CI 4.27-4.28).

CONCLUSION

Medical admission prediction scoring system can be reliably applied to the regional population to predict medical admissions and may have better generalizability to other parts of the world owing to the diverse patient population in Qatar.

Is Modified Early Warning Score associated with clinical outcomes of patients admitted to a university internal medicine ward?

OBJECTIVE

To assess the MEWS association with the clinical outcomes (CO) of patients admitted to an internal medicine ward (IMW) at a Brazilian university hospital (UH).

INTRODUCTION

It is important to quickly identify patients with clinical deterioration, especially in wards. The health team must recognize and act before the situation becomes an adverse event. In Brazil, nurses' work to overcome performance myths and the application of standardized predictive scales for patients in wards is still limited.

DESIGN

An observational cohort study designed and developed by a registered nurse that followed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) checklist.

METHODS

Data were collected from the IMW of a UH located in the city of São Paulo, Brazil (2017). An ROC curve was calculated to strengthen the use of a MEWS of < or ≥ 4 as a cutoff. CO of the two subgroups were compared.

RESULTS

Three hundred patients completed the study; their vital signs were recorded consecutively throughout hospitalization in the IMW. The highest MEWS value each day was considered for analysis. Scores < 4 were significantly associated with a higher probability of hospital discharge, a lower chance of transfer to the ICU, a lower total number of days of hospitalization, and a lower risk of death. Score ≥ 4 had worse CO (orotracheal intubation and cardiac monitoring), transfer to the ICU, and increased risk of death.

CONCLUSION

Scores < 4 were associated with positive outcomes, while scores ≥ 4 were associated with negative outcomes. MEWS can help prioritize interventions, increase certainty in decision-making, and improve patient safety, especially in a teaching IMW with medical teams undergoing professional development, thereby ensuring the central role of the nursing team in Brazil.

RELEVANCE FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE

MEWS aid nurses in identifying and managing patients, prioritizing interventions through assertive decision-making.

Derivation and internal validation of a clinical prediction score to predict major effect or death in acute metamfetamine toxicity

OBJECTIVE

Metamfetamine use can cause serious complications or death. We aimed to derive and internally validate a clinical prediction score to predict major effect or death in acute metamfetamine toxicity.

METHODS

We performed secondary analysis of 1,225 consecutive cases reported from all local public emergency departments to the Hong Kong Poison Information Centre between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. We split the entire dataset chronologically into derivation (first 70% of cases) and validation (the remaining 30% of cases) cohorts. Univariate analysis was conducted, followed by multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort to identify independent predictors of major effect or death. We developed a clinical prediction score based on the regression coefficients of the independent predictors in the regression model and compared its discriminatory performance with five existing early warning scores in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

The MASCOT (Male, Age, Shock, Consciousness, Oxygen, Tachycardia) score was derived based on the six independent predictors: male gender (1 point), age (≥35 years, 1 point), shock (mean arterial pressure <65 mmHg, 3 points), consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale <13, 2 points), need for supplemental oxygen (1 point), and tachycardia (pulse rate >120 beats/min, 1 point). The score ranges from 0-9, with a higher score indicating higher risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MASCOT score was 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.93) in the derivation cohort and 0.91 (95% CI 0.81-1.00) in the validation cohort, with a discriminatory performance comparable with existing scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The MASCOT score enables quick risk stratification in acute metamfetamine toxicity. Further external validation is warranted before wider adoption.

How registered nurses are measuring respiratory rates in adult acute care health settings: An integrative review

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

This integrative review aimed to draw conclusions from evidence on how registered nurses are measuring respiratory rates for acute care patients.

BACKGROUND

Despite the growing research supporting respiratory rate as an early indicator for clinical deterioration, respiratory rate has consistently been the least frequently measured and accurately documented vital sign.

DESIGN

An integrative review.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in June 2022 in four databases: CINAHL, PubMed, Medline and Scopus. Quality appraisal was undertaken using the Joanna Briggs Institute's Checklist. PRISMA guidelines were followed to ensure explicit reporting and reported in the PRISMA checklist.

RESULTS

Overall, 9915 records were identified, and 19 met the inclusion criteria. Of these 19 articles, seven themes emerged: estimation and digit preference, lack of understanding and knowledge, not valuing the clinical significance of respiratory rate, oxygen saturation substitute, interobserver agreement, subjective concern and count duration. A high prevalence of bias, estimation and incorrect technique was evident. A total of 15 articles reported specifically on how registered nurses are measuring respiratory rates on general medical and surgical wards.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite its importance, this integrative review has determined that respiratory rates are not being assessed correctly by nursing staff in the acute care environment. Evidence of using estimation, value bias or quick count and multiply techniques are emerging themes which urgently require further research. No patient or public contribution.

Comparing complaint-based triage scales and early warning scores for emergency department triage

Background

Emergency triage systems are used globally to prioritise care based on patients’ needs. These systems are commonly based on patient complaints, while the need for timely interventions on regular hospital wards is usually assessed with early warning scores (EWS). We aim to directly compare the ability of currently used triage scales and EWS scores to recognise patients in need of urgent care in the ED.

Methods

We performed a retrospective, single-centre study on all patients who presented to the ED of a Dutch Level 1 trauma centre, between 1 September 2018 and 24 June 2020 and for whom a Netherlands Triage System (NTS) score as well as a Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) was recorded. The performance of these scores was assessed using surrogate markers for true urgency and presented using bar charts, cross tables and a paired area under the curve (AUC).

Results

We identified 12 317 unique patient visits where NTS and MEWS scores were documented during triage. A paired comparison of the AUC of these scores showed that the MEWS score had a significantly better AUC than the NTS for predicting the need for hospital admission (0.65 vs 0.60; p<0.001) or 30-day all-cause mortality (0.70 vs 0.60; p<0.001). Furthermore, when non-urgent MEWS scores co-occur with urgent NTS scores, the MEWS score seems to more accurately capture the urgency level that is warranted.

Conclusions

The results of this study suggest that EWSs could potentially be used to replace the current emergency triage systems.

Evaluation of the Overall Accuracy of the Combined Early Warning Scoring Systems in the Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality

Introduction Deterioration of clinical condition of in-hospital patients further leads to intensive care unit (ICU) transfer or death which can be reduced by the use of prediction tools. The early warning scoring (EWS) system is a prediction tool used in monitoring medical patients in hospitals, hospital staying length, and inpatient mortality. The present study evaluated four different EWS systems for the prediction of patient survival. Method The present prospective observational study has analyzed 217 patients visiting the emergency department from November 2016 to November 2018, followed by demographic and clinical data collection. Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Triage Early Warning Score (TEWS), Leed's Early Warning Score (LEWS), and patient-at-risk scores (PARS) were assigned based upon body temperature, consciousness level, heart rate, blood pressure, respiratory rate, mobility, etc. Data was analyzed with the help of R 4.0.4 (R Foundation, Vienna, Austria) and Microsoft Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, Washington). Results Out of these 217 patients, 205 got shifted to a ward, and 12 died, amongst which the majority belonged to the 31-40 age group. Among patients admitted to ICU had a MEWS greater than 3, TEWS within the range 0 to 2 and 3 to 5, LEWS greater than 7, and PARS greater than 5 on the initial days of admission. The patients who died and those who were shifted to the ward showed significant differences in EWS. A significant association was observed between all the EWS and patient outcomes (p<0.001). Conclusion MEWS, TEWS, LEWS, and PARS were effective in the prediction of inpatient mortality as well as admission to the ICU. With the increase in the EWS, there was an increase in the duration of ICU stay and a decrease in chances of survival.

Exploring nursing and medical perceptions of sepsis management in a New Zealand emergency department: A qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

Early sepsis recognition and treatment are essential in order to reduce the burden of disease. Initial assessment of patients with infection is often undertaken by ED nurses and resident doctors. This descriptive qualitative study aimed to explore their perceptions and perspectives regarding the factors that impede the identification and management of patients with sepsis.

METHODS

This was a qualitative study conducted between 30 January 2020 and 27 February 2020. Semi-structured focus group interviews were performed to collect data. All participants provided written informed consent and completed a basic demographic and work experience form. Two study investigators facilitated the interviews. Interviews were audio-recorded and later transcribed. Thematic analysis was performed with the aid of NVivo 12 software.

RESULTS

Six focus group interviews were conducted involving 40 ED nurses and doctors. Interview length ranged from 27 to 38 min (mean 33.5 min). Three major themes were identified: (i) clinical management; (ii) challenges and delays; and (iii) communication. Each of these themes was broken down into subthemes, which are presented in more detail.

CONCLUSION

ED nurses and doctors have identified important factors that limit and enhance their capacity to recognise and respond to patients with sepsis. Complex interactions exist between clinical and organisational structures that can affect the care of patients and the ability of clinicians to provide optimal care. The three major themes and specific subthemes provide a useful framework and stimulus for service improvements and research that could help foster future sepsis management improvement strategies.

Excess Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized During the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

The extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has affected outcomes for patients with unplanned hospitalizations is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in in-hospital mortality for patients without COVID-19 during the first 10 months of the pandemic (March 4, 2020 to December 31, 2020).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Observational study of adults with unplanned hospitalizations at 51 hospitals across 6 Western states.

EXPOSURES

Unplanned hospitalizations occurring during the spring COVID-19 surge (March 4 to May 13, 2020; Period 1), an intervening period (May 14 to October 19, 2020; Period 2), and the fall COVID-19 surge (October 20 to December 31, 2020; Period 3) were compared with a pre-COVID-19 baseline period from January 1, 2019, to March 3, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

We examined daily hospital admissions and in-hospital mortality overall and in 30 conditions.

RESULTS

Unplanned hospitalizations declined steeply during Periods 1 and 3 (by 47.5% and 25% compared with baseline, respectively). Although volumes declined, adjusted in-hospital mortality rose from 2.9% in the pre-pandemic period to 3.5% in Period 1 (20.7% relative increase), returning to baseline in Period 2, and rose again to 3.4% in Period 3. Elevated mortality was seen for nearly all conditions studied during the pandemic surge periods.

CONCLUSION

Pandemic COVID-19 surges were associated with higher rates of in-hospital mortality among patients without COVID-19, suggesting disruptions in care patterns for patients with many common acute and chronic illnesses.

Predictive value of Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and Revised Trauma Score (RTS) for the short-term prognosis of emergency trauma patients: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the predictive value of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and Revised Trauma Score (RTS) for emergency trauma patients who died within 24 hours.

DESIGN

A retrospective, single-centred study.

SETTING

This study was conducted at a tertiary hospital in Southern China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1739 patients with acute trauma, aged 16 years or older who presented to the emergency department from 1 November 2016 to 30 November 2019, were included.

INTERVENTIONS NONE

None.

OUTCOME

24-hour mortality was the primary outcome of trauma.

RESULTS

1739 patients were divided into the survival group (1709 patients,98.27%), and the non-survival group (30 patients,1.73%). Crude OR and adjusted OR of MEWS were 1.99, 95% CI (1.73 to 2.29), and 2.00, 95% CI (1.74 to 2.31), p<0.001, respectively. Crude OR and adjusted OR of RTS were 0.62, 95% CI (0.55 to 0.69) and 0.61, 95% CI (0.55 to 0.68), p<0.001, respectively. The area under the curve of MEWS was significantly higher than that of RTS (p=0.005): 0.927, 95% CI (0.914 to 0.939) vs 0.799, 95% CI (0.779 to 0.817).

CONCLUSIONS

Both MEWS and RTS were independent predictors of the short-term prognosis in emergency trauma patients, MEWS had better predictive efficacy.

Prognostic significance of emergency department modified early warning score trend in critical ill elderly patients

OBJECTIVE

To explore the relationship between trends in emergency department modified early warning score (EDMEWS) and the prognosis of elderly patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

Consecutive non-traumatic elderly ED patients (≥65 years old) admitted to the ICU between July 2018 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. The selected patients had at least 2 separate MEWS during their ED stay. Detailed patient information was retrieved initially from the ICU database of our hospital and then crosschecked with electronic medical recording system to confirm the completeness and correctness of the data. Patients who had do-not-resuscitate order and those with incomplete data of EDMEWS, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, or survival information (7-day and 30-day mortality) were excluded. The trends in EDMEWS were determined using the regression line of multiple MEWS measured during ED stay, in which EDMEWS trend progression was defined as the slope of the regression line > zero. The relationship between EDMEWS trend and prognosis was assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses (multiple logistic regression analysis).

RESULTS

Of the 1423 selected patients, 499 (35.1%) had worsening 24-h APACHE II score, 110 (7.7%) died within 7 days, and 233 (16.4%) died within 30 days. Factors that were significantly associated with worsening 24-h APACHE II score, 7-day mortality, and 30-day mortality in univariate analysis were selected for inclusion into multiple logistic regression analyses. After adjusting for other covariates, EDMEWS trend progression was significantly associated with 24-h APACHE II score progression, 7-day mortality, and 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

EDMEWS trend progression was significantly associated with 24-h APACHE II score progression, 7-day mortality, and 30-day mortality in elderly ED patients admitted to the ICU. EDMEWS is a simple and useful tool for precisely monitoring patients' ongoing condition and predicting prognosis.

Comparison of within 7 Day All-Cause Mortality among HDU Patients with Modified Early Warning Score of ≥5 with those with Score of <5

Objective

To compare 7-Day All-Cause Mortality among HDU Patients with Modified Early Warning Score of ≥5 with Those with Score of <5.

Methods

All patients of age more than 18 years, of either gender admitted in HDU of Medical Unit-II, CHK between September 2019 to February 2020 were included. MEWS was calculated for each patient at time of admission. Patients with MEWS score of ≥5 were allocated to Group-A and those with score of <5 were allocated to Group-B. Patients were followed for seven days and outcome status of alive, expired or discharged was noted.

Results

Total of 336 patients were selected out of which 168 patients was inducted in Group-A and 168 patients in Group-B. MEWS Score in patients who expired was significantly higher (Mdn=11) than in those who survived (Mdn=4), p <.001. 7-day mortality in Group-A was 62 (39.9%) while in Group-B was 40 (23.8%). ROC was plotted of MEWS Score for mortality, it showed significant area under curve of 68.4% (p <.001, 95% CI = .62 to .75). MEWS Score of 3.5 showed sensitivity of 89.2% and specificity of 65%.

Conclusion

Our results show that MEWS has a positive trend to predict mortality. MEWS score of 3.5 is suggested cut off based on ROC in our study.

Predicting cardiac arrest in the emergency department

In-hospital cardiac arrest remains a leading cause of death: roughly 300,000 in-hospital cardiac arrests occur each year in the United States, ≈10% of which occur in the emergency department. ED-based cardiac arrest may represent a subset of in-hospital cardiac arrest with a higher proportion of reversible etiologies and a higher potential for neurologically intact survival. Patients presenting to the ED have become increasingly complex, have a high burden of critical illness, and face crowded departments with thinly stretched resources. As a result, patients in the ED are vulnerable to unrecognized clinical deterioration that may lead to ED-based cardiac arrest. Efforts to identify patients who may progress to ED-based cardiac arrest have traditionally been approached through identification of critically ill patients at triage and the identification of patients who unexpectedly deteriorate during their stay in the ED. Interventions to facilitate appropriate triage and resource allocation, as well as earlier identification of patients at risk of deterioration in the ED, could potentially allow for both prevention of cardiac arrest and optimization of outcomes from ED-based cardiac arrest. This review will discuss the epidemiology of ED-based cardiac arrest, as well as commonly used approaches to predict ED-based cardiac arrest and highlight areas that require further research to improve outcomes for this population.

Early warning score validation methodologies and performance metrics: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Early warning scores (EWS) have been developed as clinical prognostication tools to identify acutely deteriorating patients. In the past few years, there has been a proliferation of studies that describe the development and validation of novel machine learning-based EWS. Systematic reviews of published studies which focus on evaluating performance of both well-established and novel EWS have shown conflicting conclusions. A possible reason is the heterogeneity in validation methods applied. In this review, we aim to examine the methodologies and metrics used in studies which perform EWS validation.

METHODS

A systematic review of all eligible studies from the MEDLINE database and other sources, was performed. Studies were eligible if they performed validation on at least one EWS and reported associations between EWS scores and inpatient mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) transfers, or cardiac arrest (CA) of adults. Two reviewers independently did a full-text review and performed data abstraction by using standardized data-worksheet based on the TRIPOD (Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) checklist. Meta-analysis was not performed due to heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The key differences in validation methodologies identified were (1) validation dataset used, (2) outcomes of interest, (3) case definition, time of EWS use and aggregation methods, and (4) handling of missing values. In terms of case definition, among the 48 eligible studies, 34 used the patient episode case definition while 12 used the observation set case definition, and 2 did the validation using both case definitions. Of those that used the patient episode case definition, 18 studies validated the EWS at a single point of time, mostly using the first recorded observation. The review also found more than 10 different performance metrics reported among the studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Methodologies and performance metrics used in studies performing validation on EWS were heterogeneous hence making it difficult to interpret and compare EWS performance. Standardizing EWS validation methodology and reporting can potentially address this issue.

Evaluation of a modified South African Triage Score as a predictor of patient disposition at a tertiary hospital in Rwanda

Background

Triage is essential for efficient and effective delivery of care in emergency centers (ECs) where numerous patients present simultaneously with varying acuity of conditions. Implementing EC triage systems provides a method of recognizing which patients may require admission and are at higher risks for poor health outcomes. Rwanda is experiencing increased demand for emergency care; however, triage has not been well-studied. The University Teaching Hospital of Kigali (UTH-K) is an urban tertiary care health center utilizing a locally modified South African Triage Score (mSATS) that classifies patients into five color categories. Our study evaluated the utility of the mSATS tool at UTH-K.

Methods

UTH-K implemented mSATS in April 2013. All patients aged 15 years or older from August 2015 to July 2016 were eligible for inclusion in the database. Variables of interest included demographic information, mSATS category, patient case type (trauma or medical), disposition from the ED and mortality.

Results

1438 cases were randomly sampled; the majority were male (61.9%) and median age was 35 years. Injuries accounted for 56.7% of the cases while medical conditions affected 43.3%. Admission likelihood significantly increased with higher triage color category for medical patients (OR: Yellow = 3.61, p < .001 to Red (with alarm) = 7.80, p < .01). Likelihood for trauma patients, however, was not significantly increased (OR: Yellow = .84, p = .75 to Red (with alarm) = 1.50, p = .65). Mortality rates increased with increasing triage category with the red with alarm category having the highest mortality (7.7%, OR 18.91).

Conclusion

The mSATS tool accurately predicted patient disposition and mortality for the overall ED population. The mSATS tool provided useful clinical guidance on the need for hospital admission for medical patients but did not accurately predict patient disposition for injured patients. Further trauma-specific triage studies are needed to improve emergency care in Rwanda.

Failure of vital sign normalization is more strongly associated than single measures with mortality and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Modified Early Warning Systems (MEWS) scores offer proxies for morbidity and mortality that are easily acquired, but there are limited data on what changing MEWS scores within the ED indicate. We examined the correlation of changing MEWS scores during resuscitation in the ED and in-hospital morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis on medical ED patients with simplified MEWS scores (without urine output or mental status) admitted to a single academic tertiary care center over one year. Triage-to-Last delta MEWS score and Triage-to-Max delta MEWS scores were calculated and correlated to in-hospital mortality, ICU admission, length of stay (LOS) and diagnosis of sepsis.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 8322 ED patients with an ICU admission rate of 17% and a mortality rate of 2%. Every point of worsened MEWS after triage was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.96-2.97) than triage MEWS alone (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.23-1.44; p < 0.001). Likewise, each point of worsened MEWS was associated with increased odds of ICU admission (Triage-to-Last: OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.92-2.33 and Triage-to-Max: OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.45-1.60, respectively). Among patients with suspected infection, similar associations are found.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic vital signs in the emergency department, as categorized by delta MEWS, and failure to normalize abnormalities, were associated with increased mortality, ICU admission, LOS, and the diagnosis of sepsis. Our results suggest that MEWS scores that do not normalize, from triage onward, are more strongly associated with outcome than any single score.

Prognostic value of Modified Early Warning Score generated in a Chinese emergency department: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to validate the performance of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) in a Chinese emergency department and to determine the best cut-off value for in-hospital mortality prediction.

DESIGN

A prospective, single-centred observational cohort study.

SETTING

This study was conducted at a tertiary hospital in South China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 383 patients aged 18 years or older who presented to the emergency department from 17 May 2017 through 27 September 2017, triaged as category 1, 2 or 3, were enrolled.

OUTCOMES

The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital mortality and admission to the intensive care unit. The secondary outcome was using MEWS to predict hospitalised and discharged patients.

RESULTS

A total of 383 patients were included in this study. In-hospital mortality was 13.6% (52/383), and transfer to the intensive care unit was 21.7% (83/383). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of MEWS for in-hospital mortality prediction was 0.83 (95% CI 0.786 to 0.881). When predicting in-hospital mortality with the cut-off point defined as 3.5, 158 patients had MEWS >3.5, with a specificity of 66%, a sensitivity of 87%, an accuracy of 69%, a positive predictive value of 28% and a negative predictive value of 97%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the use of MEWS for in-hospital mortality prediction in patients who were triaged category 1, 2 or 3 in a Chinese emergency department. The cut-off value for in-hospital mortality prediction defined in this study was different from that seen in many other studies.

Selecting best-suited "patient-related outcomes" in older people admitted to an acute geriatric or emergency frailty unit and applying quality improvement research to improve patient care

The population is aging worldwide, and hospitals are admitting a higher proportion of acutely unwell older people. Population-specific factors such as multimorbidity and frailty in older people compounded by deficient expertise contribute to longer lengths of stay, higher readmission rates, and increased rates of institutionalization. A wide range of acute geriatric care models are currently providing acute care to frail older people and these have been shown to provide a cost-effective high-quality service. In this review, population-specific factors, service models, and a wide range of patient-related outcomes of "at risk" older people admitted to an acute geriatric care unit are explored. In addition, we also discuss data measurements and a quality improvement methodology to improve the delivery of care based on the patient outcome data. We hope, in addition to ensuring effectiveness and sustainability of our current services, this may also enhance academic research. Regular monitoring and evaluation of patient-related clinical outcomes not only improve the patient care and reduce the caregiver burden but also help in implementing quality initiatives to develop existing services.

Quick SOFA Scores Predict Mortality in Adult Emergency Department Patients With and Without Suspected Infection

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (composed of respiratory rate ≥22 breaths/min, systolic blood pressure ≤100 mm Hg, and altered mental status) may identify patients with infection who are at risk of complications. We determined the association between qSOFA scores and outcomes in adult emergency department (ED) patients with and without suspected infection.

METHODS

We performed a single-site, retrospective review of adult ED patients between January 2014 and March 2015. Patients triaged to fast-track, dentistry, psychiatry, and labor and delivery were excluded. qSOFA scores were calculated with simultaneous vital signs and Modified Early Warning System scores. Patients receiving intravenous antibiotics were presumed to have suspected infection. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to explore the association between qSOFA scores and inpatient mortality, admission, and length of stay. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis and c statistics were also calculated for ICU admission and mortality.

RESULTS

We included 22,530 patients. Mean age was 54 years (SD 21 years), 53% were women, 45% were admitted, and mortality rate was 1.6%. qSOFA scores were associated with mortality (0 [0.6%], 1 [2.8%], 2 [12.8%], and 3 [25.0%]), ICU admission (0 [5.1%], 1 [10.5%], 2 [20.8%], and 3 [27.4%]), and hospital length of stay (0 [123 hours], 1 [163 hours], 2 [225 hours], and 3 [237 hours]). Adjusted rates were also associated with qSOFA. The c statistics for mortality in patients with and without suspected infection were similarly high (0.75 [95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.78) and 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.74), respectively.

CONCLUSION

qSOFA scores were associated with inpatient mortality, admission, ICU admission, and hospital length of stay in adult ED patients likely to be admitted both with and without suspected infection and may be useful in predicting outcomes.