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Tracy M, Gordis E, Strully K, Marshall BDL, Cerdá M. Applications of agent-based modeling in trauma research. PSYCHOLOGICAL TRAUMA : THEORY, RESEARCH, PRACTICE AND POLICY 2023; 15:939-950. [PMID: 36136775 PMCID: PMC10030380 DOI: 10.1037/tra0001375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Trauma, violence, and their consequences for population health are shaped by complex, intersecting forces across the life span. We aimed to illustrate the strengths of agent-based modeling (ABM), a computational approach in which population-level patterns emerge from the behaviors and interactions of simulated individuals, for advancing trauma research; Method: We provide an overview of agent-based modeling for trauma research, including a discussion of the model development process, ABM as a complement to other causal inference and complex systems approaches in trauma research, and past ABM applications in the trauma literature; Results: We use existing ABM applications to illustrate the strengths of ABM for trauma research, including incorporating interactions between individuals, simulating processes across multiple scales, examining life-course effects, testing alternate theories, comparing intervention strategies in a virtual laboratory, and guiding decision making. We also discuss the challenges of applying ABM to trauma research and offer specific suggestions for incorporating ABM into future studies of trauma and violence; Conclusion: Agent-based modeling is a useful complement to other methodological advances in trauma research. We recommend a more widespread adoption of ABM, particularly for research into patterns and consequences of individual traumatic experiences across the life course and understanding the effects of interventions that may be influenced by social norms and social network structures. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
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Affiliation(s)
- Melissa Tracy
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University at Albany, State University of New York, 1 University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, United States
| | - Elana Gordis
- Department of Psychology, University at Albany, State University of New York, 1400 Washington Ave, Albany, NY 12222, United States
| | - Kate Strully
- Department of Sociology, University at Albany, State University of New York, 1400 Washington Ave, Albany, NY 12222, United States
| | - Brandon D. L. Marshall
- Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, 121 South Main St, Providence, RI, 02912, United States
| | - Magdalena Cerdá
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, 180 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016, United States
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Probst C, Buckley C, Lasserre AM, Kerr WC, Mulia N, Puka K, Purshouse RC, Ye Y, Rehm J. Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project: Study Design and First Results. Am J Epidemiol 2023; 192:690-702. [PMID: 36702471 PMCID: PMC10423629 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwad018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2022] [Revised: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/20/2023] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Since about 2010, life expectancy at birth in the United States has stagnated and begun to decline, with concurrent increases in the socioeconomic divide in life expectancy. The Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project uses a novel microsimulation approach to investigate the extent to which alcohol use, socioeconomic status (SES), and race/ethnicity contribute to unequal developments in US life expectancy and how alcohol control interventions could reduce such inequalities. Representative, secondary data from several sources will be integrated into one coherent, dynamic microsimulation to model life-course changes in SES and alcohol use and cause-specific mortality attributable to alcohol use by SES, race/ethnicity, age, and sex. Markov models will be used to inform transition intensities between levels of SES and drinking patterns. The model will be used to compare a baseline scenario with multiple counterfactual intervention scenarios. The preliminary results indicate that the crucial microsimulation component provides a good fit to observed demographic changes in the population, providing a robust baseline model for further simulation work. By demonstrating the feasibility of this novel approach, the SIMAH Project promises to offer superior integration of relevant empirical evidence to inform public health policy for a more equitable future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Probst
- Correspondence to Dr. Charlotte Probst, Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 33 Ursula-Franklin Street, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada (e-mail: )
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Buckley C, Field M, Vu TM, Brennan A, Greenfield TK, Meier PS, Nielsen A, Probst C, Shuper PA, Purshouse RC. An integrated dual process simulation model of alcohol use behaviours in individuals, with application to US population-level consumption, 1984-2012. Addict Behav 2022; 124:107094. [PMID: 34530207 PMCID: PMC8529781 DOI: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2021.107094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2021] [Revised: 06/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) describes how attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control guide health behaviour, including alcohol consumption. Dual Process Theories (DPT) suggest that alongside these reasoned pathways, behaviour is influenced by automatic processes that are determined by the frequency of engagement in the health behaviour in the past. We present a computational model integrating TPB and DPT to determine drinking decisions for simulated individuals. We explore whether this model can reproduce historical patterns in US population alcohol use and simulate a hypothetical scenario, "Dry January", to demonstrate the utility of the model for appraising the impact of policy interventions on population alcohol use. METHOD Constructs from the TPB pathway were computed using equations from an existing individual-level dynamic simulation model of alcohol use. The DPT pathway was initialised by simulating individuals' past drinking using data from a large US survey. Individuals in the model were from a US population microsimulation that accounts for births, deaths and migration (1984-2015). On each modelled day, for each individual, we calculated standard drinks consumed using the TPB or DPT pathway. In each year we computed total population alcohol use prevalence, frequency and quantity. The model was calibrated to alcohol use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1984-2004). RESULTS The model was a good fit to prevalence and frequency but a poorer fit to quantity of alcohol consumption, particularly in males. Simulating Dry January in each year led to a small to moderate reduction in annual population drinking. CONCLUSION This study provides further evidence, at the whole population level, that a combination of reasoned and implicit processes are important for alcohol use. Alcohol misuse interventions should target both processes. The integrated TPB-DPT simulation model is a useful tool for estimating changes in alcohol consumption following hypothetical population interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte Buckley
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield S1 3DA, UK.
| | - Matt Field
- Department of Psychology, University of Sheffield, Cathedral Court, 1 Vicar Lane, Sheffield S1 2LT, UK
| | - Tuong Manh Vu
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield S1 4DA, UK
| | - Alan Brennan
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield S1 4DA, UK
| | - Thomas K Greenfield
- Alcohol Research Group (ARG), Public Health Institute, 6001 Shellmound St, Emeryville, CA 94608, USA
| | - Petra S Meier
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Berkeley Square, 99 Berkeley Street, Glasgow G3 7HR, UK
| | - Alexandra Nielsen
- Alcohol Research Group (ARG), Public Health Institute, 6001 Shellmound St, Emeryville, CA 94608, USA
| | - Charlotte Probst
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, On M5S 2S1, Canada; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Medical Faculty and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld, 130.3 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Paul A Shuper
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Ursula Franklin Street, Toronto, On M5S 2S1, Canada
| | - Robin C Purshouse
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield S1 3DA, UK
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Purshouse RC, Buckley C, Brennan A, Holmes J. Commentary on Robinson et al. (2021): Evaluating theories of change for public health policies using computer model discovery methods. Addiction 2021; 116:2709-2711. [PMID: 34184346 PMCID: PMC9365023 DOI: 10.1111/add.15595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2021] [Accepted: 05/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Recent developments in computer modelling—known as model discovery—could help to confirm the mechanisms underpinning Robinson and colleagues’ important early findings for the effectiveness of minimum unit pricing, and to test the complete theory of change underpinning this crucial evaluation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robin C. Purshouse
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield
| | - Charlotte Buckley
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield
| | - Alan Brennan
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield
| | - John Holmes
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield
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Rehm J, Purshouse RC. Causality and initiation of alcohol control policy. A response to Allamani. Drug Alcohol Rev 2021; 40:1389-1391. [PMID: 34347331 DOI: 10.1111/dar.13371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2021] [Revised: 07/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
In a recent commentary, Allamani asked how one can establish causality in epidemiological research, and specifically about causality as it relates to alcohol control policy. Epidemiology customarily uses a sufficient-component cause model, where a sufficient cause for an outcome is determined by a set of minimal conditions and events that inevitably produce the stated outcome. While this model is theoretically clear, its operationalisation often involves probabilistic elements. Recent advances in agent-based modelling may improve operationalisation. The implications for alcohol control policy from this model are straightforward: the so-called alcohol-attributable fraction denotes the cases of morbidity or mortality which would not have happened in the absence of alcohol use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jürgen Rehm
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada.,Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada.,Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy and Center of Clinical Epidemiology and Longitudinal Studies, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.,Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,Department of International Health Projects, Institute for Leadership and Health Management, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russian Federation.,Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain.,Center for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research, Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Robin C Purshouse
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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Using Multi-objective Grammar-based Genetic Programming to Integrate Multiple Social Theories in Agent-based Modeling. EVOLUTIONARY MULTI-CRITERION OPTIMIZATION : ... INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, EMO ... : PROCEEDINGS. EMO (CONFERENCE) 2021; 12654:721-733. [PMID: 33959730 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-72062-9_57] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Different theoretical mechanisms have been proposed for explaining complex social phenomena. For example, explanations for observed trends in population alcohol use have been postulated based on norm theory, role theory, and others. Many mechanism-based models of phenomena attempt to translate a single theory into a simulation model. However, single theories often only represent a partial explanation for the phenomenon. The potential of integrating theories together, computationally, represents a promising way of improving the explanatory capability of generative social science. This paper presents a framework for such integrative model discovery, based on multi-objective grammar-based genetic programming (MOGGP). The framework is demonstrated using two separate theory-driven models of alcohol use dynamics based on norm theory and role theory. The proposed integration considers how the sequence of decisions to consume the next drink in a drinking occasion may be influenced by factors from the different theories. A new grammar is constructed based on this integration. Results of the MOGGP model discovery process find new hybrid models that outperform the existing single-theory models and the baseline hybrid model. Future work should consider and further refine the role of domain experts in defining the meaningfulness of models identified by MOGGP.
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