Role of simple biomarkers in predicting fibrosis progression in HCV infection

Cancer related nutritional and inflammatory markers as predictive parameters of immediate postoperative complications and long-term survival after hepatectomies

BACKGROUND

The overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and complications after liver resections is unsatisfactory. Cancer-related malnutrition and inflammation have an effect on survival but not studied/not clear on postoperative complications.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed prospectively maintained database of 309 patients. The outcome variables included complications in terms of Clavien-Dindo (CD) Score, OS and DFS; We studied effect of preoperative albumin globulin ratio (AGR), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and dynamic change from pre-operative to postoperative value (Delta-AGR, Delta-NLR, Delta-PLR and Delta-APRI) on complications, OS and DFS.

RESULTS

Total 98 patients (31.71%) had postoperative complications. Fifty patients had CD 1 & 2 and 35 (11.33%) had CD 3 & 4, and 13 (4.12%) had mortality (CD 5). Low AGR, high NLR, high PLR and high Delta-AGR and high Delta-APRI predicted increased major complications. Preoperative high NLR predicted worse OS and low AGR predicted worse OS and DFS. Delta-APRI showed trends towards worse OS and DFS.

CONCLUSION

These serum inflammatory markers can predict immediate postoperative complications. Preoperative AGR and preoperative NLR can predict survival after liver resections. High Delta-AGR, which is a new entity, is predicting more postoperative complications and needs further detailed studies.

Serum Scoring and Quantitative Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Intestinal Failure-Associated Liver Disease: A Feasibility Study

(1) Background: Intestinal failure-associated liver disease (IFALD) in adults is characterized by steatosis with variable progression to fibrosis/cirrhosis. Reference standard liver biopsy is not feasible for all patients, but non-invasive serological and quantitative MRI markers for diagnosis/monitoring have not been previously validated. Here, we examine the potential of serum scores and feasibility of quantitative MRI used in non-IFALD liver diseases for the diagnosis of IFALD steatosis; (2) Methods: Clinical and biochemical parameters were used to calculate serum scores in patients on home parenteral nutrition (HPN) with/without IFALD steatosis. A sub-group underwent multiparameter quantitative MRI measurements of liver fat fraction, iron content, tissue T1, liver blood flow and small bowel motility; (3) Results: Compared to non-IFALD (n = 12), patients with IFALD steatosis (n = 8) demonstrated serum score elevations in Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (p = 0.032), Aspartate transaminase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (p < 0.001), Fibrosis-4 Index (p = 0.010), Forns Index (p = 0.001), Gamma-glutamyl transferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (p = 0.002) and Fibrosis Index (p = 0.001). Quantitative MRI scanning was feasible in all 10 sub-group patients. Median liver fat fraction was higher in IFALD steatosis patients (10.9% vs 2.1%, p = 0.032); other parameter differences were non-significant; (4) Conclusion: Serum scores used for non-IFALD liver diseases may be useful in IFALD steatosis. Multiparameter MRI is feasible in patients on HPN.

microRNA-1273g-3p is a useful non-invasive test for the prediction of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Previous studies using microRNA (miRNA or miR) microarrays have demonstrated that miR-1273g-3p is upregulated in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated fibrosis. As miRNAs have been suggested to be promising non-invasive biomarkers, the aim of the present study was to assess whether miR-1273g-3p may be useful as a potential indicator of fibrosis progression in patients with HCV. Liver biopsies were performed on 112 patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and liver stiffness measurements (LSM) were performed using FibroTouch. Liver fibrosis was determined based on Meta-analysis of Histological Data in Viral Hepatitis classification, and the aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet count (PLT) ratio index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) were calculated. The diagnostic performance of miR-1273g-3p, LSM, APRI and FIB-4 in predicting fibrosis stage were evaluated and compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. It was demonstrated that miR-1273g-3p levels were significantly positively correlated with the liver fibrosis stage (r=0.657, P<0.001). The results of LSM, APRI and FIB-4, the three non-invasive diagnostic methods, had good consistency with liver biopsy results, and their correlation coefficients with fibrosis staging were 0.815, 0.417 and 0.522, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves of miR-1273g-3p for F≥2 and F=4 stage samples were 0.841 and 0.933, respectively, which were lower than LSM (0.890 and 0.937), and higher than FIB-4 (0.791 and 0.766) and APRI (0.719 and 0.760). Spearman analysis demonstrated that serum miR-1273g-3p levels were significantly positively correlated with age, body mass index, alanine aminotransferase, AST and total bilirubin (all P<0.05), and negatively correlated with PLT (P<0.05). However, no significant correlation was observed between miR-1273g-3p levels, baseline HCV RNA loads and genotype. Therefore, the results demonstrated that miR-1273g-3p levels, as a novel non-invasive test, may be a useful and easy method for predicting the stage of liver fibrosis in patients with CHC, and has a better diagnostic performance than FIB-4 and APRI. Further prospective studies are required to validate the efficacy of miR-1273g-3p as a predictor of liver fibrosis.

Diagnostic value of combined serum biomarkers for the evaluation of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C infection: A multicenter, noninterventional, observational study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is important cause of chronic hepatitis. Liver biopsy is considered the gold standard for assessment of fibrosis but this procedure is an invasive procedure. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of non-invasive serum biomarkers, separately and in combinations, on liver fibrosis in treatment-naive chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two hundred and sixteen treatment-naive CHC patients were enrolled from 32 locations across Turkey in this open-labelled, non-interventional prospective observational study. FibroTest®, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index(APRI), aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4), Age-platelet(AP) index and Forns index were measured and compared with Metavir scores got from liver biopsies.

RESULTS

Data from 182 patients with baseline liver biopsy were suitable for analysis. One hundred and twenty patients (65.9%) had F0-F1 fibrosis and 62 patients (34.1%) had F2-F4 fibrosis. APRI 0.732 area under the curve(AUC) indicated advanced fibrosis with 69% sensitivity and 77% specificity. FIB-4 0.732 AUC and FibroTest 0.715 AUC indicated advanced fibrosis with 69% and 78.4% sensitivity, and 75% and 71.4% specificity, respectively. The combined use of tests also led to an increase in AUC and specificity. Combinations of FibroTest with APRI and/or FIB-4, and FIB-4 with APRI were optimal for the evaluation of liver fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Fibrotest, FIB-4, APRI, AP index and Forns index exhibit good diagnostic performance for determining liver fibrosis in CHC patients, and the use of at least two tests together will increase their diagnostic value still further.

Improvement of predictive models of risk of disease progression in chronic hepatitis C by incorporating longitudinal data

Existing predictive models of risk of disease progression in chronic hepatitis C have limited accuracy. The aim of this study was to improve upon existing models by applying novel statistical methods that incorporate longitudinal data. Patients in the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment Against Cirrhosis trial were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were (1) fibrosis progression (increase of two or more Ishak stages) and (2) liver-related clinical outcomes (liver-related death, hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant, or increase in Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to ≥7). Predictors included longitudinal clinical, laboratory, and histologic data. Models were constructed using logistic regression and two machine learning methods (random forest and boosting) to predict an outcome in the next 12 months. The control arm was used as the training data set (n = 349 clinical, n = 184 fibrosis) and the interferon arm, for internal validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for longitudinal models of fibrosis progression was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-0.83) using logistic regression, 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.81) using random forest, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.82) using boosting. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for longitudinal models of clinical progression was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.82) using logistic regression, 0.86 (95% CI 0.85-0.87) using random forest, and 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.86) using boosting. Longitudinal models outperformed baseline models for both outcomes (P < 0.0001). Longitudinal machine learning models had negative predictive values of 94% for both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models that incorporate longitudinal data can capture nonlinear disease progression in chronic hepatitis C and thus outperform baseline models. Machine learning methods can capture complex relationships between predictors and outcomes, yielding more accurate predictions; our models can help target costly therapies to patients with the most urgent need, guide the intensity of clinical monitoring required, and provide prognostic information to patients.

Non-invasive serum fibrosis markers: A study in chronic hepatitis

INTRODUCTION

Chronic hepatitis is specified as inflammatory disease of the liver lasting for more than six months. Role of noninvasive fibrosis markers as prognostication factors of the presence or absence of significant fibrosis on liver biopsy of patients with chronic hepatitis is the aim of this study.

METHODS

Two hundred twenty-one patients with chronic hepatitis involved in the study between 2011 and 2013. Routine biochemical indices and serum fibrosis markers such as aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) and Fibrosis 4 score (FIB-4) were evaluated, and the histological grade and stage of the liver biopsy specimens were scored according to the Ishak scoring system. Diagnostic accuracies of these markers for prediction of significant fibrosis were assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

Contemporaneous laboratory indices for imputing AAR, APRI, and FIB-4 were identified with liver biopsies. From all, 135 males (61.1%) and 86 females (38.9%), with mean age of 39.6±14.4 were studied. Significant correlation between stages of fibrosis and FIB-4, APRI and AAR were detected, with a correlation coefficient higher than that of other markers in the patients with Hepatitis B (r = 0.46), C (r = 0.58) and autoimmune hepatitis (r = 0.28). FIB-4 (AUROC = 0.84) and APRI (AUROC = 0.78) were superior to AAR at distinguishing severe fibrosis from mild-to-moderate fibrosis and gave the highest diagnostic accuracy.

CONCLUSION

Application of these markers was good at distinguishing significant fibrosis and decreased the need for staging liver biopsy specimens among patients with chronic hepatitis.

Costs of telaprevir-based triple therapy for hepatitis C: $189,000 per sustained virological response

In registration trials, triple therapy with telaprevir (TVR), pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN), and ribavirin (RBV) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) rates between 64% and 75%, but the clinical effectiveness and economic burdens of this treatment in real-world practice remain to be determined. Records of 147 patients who initiated TVR-based triple therapy at the Mount Sinai Medical Center (May-December 2011) were reviewed. Direct medical costs for pretreatment, on-treatment, and posttreatment care were calculated using data from Medicare reimbursement databases, RED Book, and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project database. Costs are presented in 2012 U.S. dollars. SVR (undetectable hepatitis C virus [HCV] RNA 24 weeks after the end of treatment) was determined on an intention-to-treat basis. Cost per SVR was calculated by dividing the median cost by the SVR rate. Median age of the 147 patients was 56 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 51-61), 68% were male, 19% were black, 11% had human immunodeficiency virus/HCV coinfection, 36% had advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis (FIB-4 scores ≥3.25), and 44% achieved an SVR. The total cost of care was $11.56 million. Median cost of care was $83,721 per patient (IQR = $66,652-$98,102). The median cost per SVR was $189,338 (IQR = $150,735-$221,860). Total costs were TVR (61%), IFN (24%), RBV (4%), adverse event management (8%), professional fees (2%), and laboratory tests (1%).

CONCLUSIONS

TVR and Peg-IFN accounted for 85% of costs. Pharmaceutical prices and the low (44%) SVR rate, in this real-world study, were major contributors to the high cost per SVR.

Systematic review: identifying patients with chronic hepatitis C in need of early treatment and intensive monitoring--predictors and predictive models of disease progression

BACKGROUND

Advances in hepatitis C therapies have led to increasing numbers of patients seeking treatment. As a result, logistical and financial concerns regarding how treatment can be provided to all patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) have emerged.

AIM

To evaluate predictors and predictive models of histological progression and clinical outcomes for patients with CHC.

METHODS

MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for studies published between January 2003 and June 2014. Two authors independently reviewed articles to select eligible studies and performed data abstraction.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies representing 5817 patients from 20 unique cohorts were included. The outcome incidence rates were widely variable: 16-61% during median follow-up of 2.5-10 years for fibrosis progression; 13-40% over 2.3-14.4 years for hepatic decompensation and 8-47% over 3.9-14.4 years for overall mortality. Multivariate analyses showed that baseline steatosis and baseline fibrosis score were the most consistent predictors of fibrosis progression (significant in 6/21 and 5/21, studies, respectively) while baseline platelet count (significant in 6/13 studies), aspartate and alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, albumin, bilirubin and age (each significant in 4/13 studies) were the most consistent predictors of clinical outcomes. Five studies developed predictive models but none were externally validated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review identified the variables that most consistently predict outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis C allowing the application of risk based approaches to identify patients in need of early treatment and intensive monitoring. This approach maximises effective use of resources and costly new direct-acting anti-viral agents.

The de ritis ratio: the test of time

De Ritis described the ratio between the serum levels of aspartate transaminase (AST) and alanine transaminase (ALT) almost 50 years ago. While initially described as a characteristic of acute viral hepatitis where ALT was usually higher than AST, other authors have subsequently found it useful in alcoholic hepatitis, where AST is usually higher than ALT. These interpretations are far too simplistic however as acute viral hepatitis can have AST greater than ALT, and this can be a sign of fulminant disease, while alcoholic hepatitis can have ALT greater than AST when several days have elapsed since alcohol exposure. The ratio therefore represents the time course and aggressiveness of disease that would be predicted from the relatively short half-life of AST (18 h) compared to ALT (36 h). In chronic viral illnesses such as chronic viral hepatitis and chronic alcoholism as well as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, an elevated AST/ALT ratio is predictive of long terms complications including fibrosis and cirrhosis. There are methodological issues, particularly whether or not pyridoxal phosphate is used in the transaminase assays, and although this can have specific effects when patient samples are deficient in this vitamin, these method differences generally have mild effects on the usefulness of the assays or the ratio. Ideally laboratories should be using pyridoxal phosphate supplemented assays in alcoholic, elderly and cancer patients who may be pyridoxine deplete. Ideally all laboratories reporting abnormal ALT should also report AST and calculate the De Ritis ratio because it provides useful diagnostic and prognostic information.

Changes in biomarkers of liver disease during successful combination antiretroviral therapy in HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals

BACKGROUND

We investigated changes in biomarkers of liver disease in HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals during successful combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) compared to changes in biomarker levels during untreated HIV infection and to HIV-monoinfected individuals.

METHODS

Non-invasive biomarkers of liver disease (hyaluronic acid [HYA], aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index [APRI], Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4] index and cytokeratin-18 [CK-18]) were correlated with liver histology in 49 HIV-HCV-coinfected patients. Changes in biomarkers over time were then assessed longitudinally in HIV-HCV-coinfected patients during successful cART (n=58), during untreated HIV-infection (n=59), and in HIV-monoinfected individuals (n=17). The median follow-up time was 3.4 years on cART. All analyses were conducted before starting HCV treatment.

RESULTS

Non-invasive biomarkers of liver disease correlated significantly with the histological METAVIR stage (P<0.002 for all comparisons). The mean ±sd area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve values for advanced fibrosis (≥F3 METAVIR) for HYA, APRI, FIB-4 and CK-18 were 0.86 ±0.05, 0.84 ±0.08, 0.80 ±0.09 and 0.81 ±0.07, respectively. HYA, APRI and CK-18 levels were higher in HIV-HCV-coinfected compared to HIV-monoinfected patients (P<0.01). In the first year on cART, APRI and FIB-4 scores decreased (-35% and -33%, respectively; P=0.1), mainly due to the reversion of HIV-induced thrombocytopaenia, whereas HYA and CK-18 levels remained unchanged. During long-term cART, there were only small changes (<5%) in median biomarker levels. Median biomarker levels changed <3% during untreated HIV-infection. Overall, 3 patients died from end-stage liver disease, and 10 from other causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers of liver disease highly correlated with fibrosis in HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals and did not change significantly during successful cART. These findings suggest a slower than expected liver disease progression in many HIV-HCV-coinfected individuals, at least during successful cART.

Noninvasive serum fibrosis markers for screening and staging chronic hepatitis C virus patients in a large US cohort

BACKGROUND

Liver biopsy remains critical for staging liver disease in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected persons, but is a bottleneck to evaluation, follow-up, and treatment of HCV. Our analysis sought to validate APRI (aspartate aminotransferase [AST]-to-platelet ratio index) and FIB-4, an index from serum fibrosis markers (alanine aminotransferase [ALT], AST, and platelets plus patient age) to stage liver disease.

METHODS

Biopsy results from HCV patients in the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study were mapped to an F0-F4 equivalent scale; APRI and FIB-4 scores at the time of biopsy were then mapped to the same scale.

RESULTS

We identified 2372 liver biopsies from HCV-infected patients with contemporaneous laboratory values for imputing APRI and FIB-4. Fibrosis stage distributions by the equivalent biopsy scale were 267 (11%) F0; 555 (23%) F1; 648 (27%) F2; 394 (17%) F3; and 508 (21%) F4. Mean APRI and FIB-4 values significantly increased with successive fibrosis levels (P < .05). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis distinguishing severe (F3-F4) from mild-to-moderate fibrosis (F0-F2) were 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], .78-.82) for APRI and 0.83 (95% CI, .81-.85) for FIB-4. There was a significant difference between the AUROCs of FIB-4 and APRI (P < .001); 88% of persons who had a FIB-4 score ≥2.0 were at stage F2 or higher.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large observational cohort, FIB-4 was good at differentiating 5 stages of chronic HCV infection. It can be useful in screening patients who need biopsy and therapy, for monitoring patients with less advanced disease, and for longitudinal studies.

Noninvasive estimation of fibrosis progression overtime using the FIB-4 index in chronic hepatitis C

The FIB-4 index is a simple formula to predict liver fibrosis based on the standard biochemical values (AST, ALT and platelet count) and age. We here investigated the utility of the index for noninvasive prediction of progression in liver fibrosis. The time-course alteration in the liver fibrosis stage between paired liver biopsies and the FIB-4 index was examined in 314 patients with chronic hepatitis C. The average interval between liver biopsies was 4.9 years. The cases that showed a time-course improvement in the fibrosis stage exhibited a decrease in the FIB-4 index, and those that showed deterioration in the fibrosis stage exhibited an increase in the FIB-4 index with a significant correlation (P < 0.001). Increase in the ΔFIB-4 index per year was an independent predictive factor for the progression in liver fibrosis with an odds ratio of 3.90 (P = 0.03). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ΔFIB-4 index/year for the prediction of advancement to cirrhosis was 0.910. Using a cut-off value of the ΔFIB-4 index/year <0.4 or ≥ 0.4, the cumulative incidence of fibrosis progression to cirrhosis at 5 and 10 years was 34% and 59%, respectively in patients with the ΔFIB-4 index/year ≥0.4, whereas it was 0% and 3% in those with the ΔFIB-4 index/year <0.4 (P < 0.001). In conclusion, measurement of the time-course changes in the FIB-4 index is useful for the noninvasive and real-time estimation of the progression in liver fibrosis.