Preoperative carcinoembryonic antibody is predictive of distant metastasis in pathologically T1 colorectal cancer after radical surgery

Risk assessment in pT1 colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common malignancy worldwide and tumour stage is closely related to clinical outcome. A small but significant proportion of submucosal-invasive (ie, pT1) CRC are associated with regional lymph node metastases (LNM) and a worse prognosis. The likelihood of LNM in pT1 CRC needs to be balanced against the operative risk and costs of surgical resection when determining the best patient management. A wide range of histopathological and clinical factors may affect LNM risk in this setting. This script provides a comprehensive overview of the tumour and patient-associated features that have been linked to LNM risk in pT1 CRC. Some of the features are well established within the literature and are included in published guidelines, while others are novel and emerging in nature. Odds ratios for LNM that are associated with key predictive features are provided where appropriate, and published models developed as an aid to the calculation of LNM risk are discussed.

Application of artificial intelligence in a real-world research for predicting the risk of liver metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer

Background

Liver is the most common metastatic site of colorectal cancer (CRC) and liver metastasis (LM) determines subsequent treatment as well as prognosis of patients, especially in T1 patients. T1 CRC patients with LM are recommended to adopt surgery and systematic treatments rather than endoscopic therapy alone. Nevertheless, there is still no effective model to predict the risk of LM in T1 CRC patients. Hence, we aim to construct an accurate predictive model and an easy-to-use tool clinically.

Methods

We integrated two independent CRC cohorts from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database (SEER, training dataset) and Xijing hospital (testing dataset). Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods were adopted to establish the predictive model.

Results

A total of 16,785 and 326 T1 CRC patients from SEER database and Xijing hospital were incorporated respectively into the study. Every single ML model demonstrated great predictive capability, with an area under the curve (AUC) close to 0.95 and a stacking bagging model displaying the best performance (AUC = 0.9631). Expectedly, the stacking model exhibited a favorable discriminative ability and precisely screened out all eight LM cases from 326 T1 patients in the outer validation cohort. In the subgroup analysis, the stacking model also demonstrated a splendid predictive ability for patients with tumor size ranging from one to50mm (AUC = 0.956).

Conclusion

We successfully established an innovative and convenient AI model for predicting LM in T1 CRC patients, which was further verified in the external dataset. Ultimately, we designed a novel and easy-to-use decision tree, which only incorporated four fundamental parameters and could be successfully applied in clinical practice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12935-021-02424-7.

Nomogram to Predict the Occurrence and Prognosis of Distant Metastasis in T1N0 Colon Cancer: A SEER Data-Based Study

Purpose

Distant metastasis (DM) is relatively rare in T1 colon cancer (CC) patients, especially in those with negative lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to explore the main clinical factors and build nomogram for predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 colon cancer patients.

Methods

Patients with T1N0 stage CC were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database. All patients were divided into development and validation cohorts with the 3:1 ratio. Logistic regressions were performed to analyze the clinical risk factors for DM. Cox regression model was used to identify potential prognostic factors for patients with DM. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Based on cancer-specific survival (CSS), Kaplan-Meier curves were generated and analyzed using Log rank tests.

Results

A total of 6770 patients were enrolled in this study, including 428 patients (6.3%) with DM. Age, size, grade, CEA were independent risk factors associated with DM. Age, grade, CEA, surgery and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for CSS. Nomograms were applied and C-index, calibration curves, ROC curves and DCA curves proved good discrimination, calibration and clinical practicability of the nomogram in predicting the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients. In the DM nomogram, the AUCs for development and validation cohort were 0.901 (95% CI = 0.879-0.922) and 0.899 (95% CI=0.865-0.940), respectively. The calibration curves (development cohort: S: p = 0.712; validation cohort: S: p = 0.681) showed the relatively satisfactory prediction accuracy. Similarly, the AUCs of the nomogram at 1-, 2-, and 3-year were 0.763 (95% CI=0.744-0.782), 0.794 (95% CI=0.775-0.813), and 0.822 (95% CI=0.803-0.841) for the development cohort, and 0.785 (95% CI=0.754-0.816), 0.748 (95% CI=0.717-0.779) and 0.896 (95% CI=0.865-0.927) for the validation cohort in the CSS nomogram. The C-indices of the development and validation cohort were 0.718 (95% CI=0.639-0.737) and 0.712 (95% CI=0.681-0.743).

Conclusion

The population-based nomogram could help clinicians predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM in T1N0 CC patients and provide a reference to perform appropriate metastatic screening plans and rational therapeutic options for the special population.

Comparison of long-term recurrence-free survival between primary surgery and endoscopic resection followed by secondary surgery in T1 colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to investigate whether endoscopic resection of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) before surgery (secondary surgery) unfavorably affects long-term recurrence-free survival (RFS) compared with surgery without prior endoscopic resection (primary surgery).

METHODS

We reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent radical surgery for T1 CRC with high-risk histologic features at a tertiary referral hospital in Korea between 2011 and 2016. The primary outcome was RFS. We performed 2 types of propensity score (PS) analyses to control for confounders.

RESULTS

Of 852 patients, 388 underwent primary surgery and 464 secondary surgery. During the median follow-up period of 57.0 months (range, 41.0-63.0), cancer recurred in 18 patients (2.1%). The 5-year RFS rates did not differ between the primary and secondary surgery groups (97.0 vs 98.5%, P = .194). Further analyses of RFS rates according to nodal stages and number of high-risk histologic features showed no difference between groups. Moreover, RFS rates were not different between the groups after PS matching. In multivariable Cox proportional regression analysis, baseline serum carcinoembryonic antigen level was an independent risk factor for cancer recurrence (hazard ratio, 1.464; 95% confidence interval, 1.242-1.725; P < .001) but prior endoscopic resection of T1 CRC was not (P = .201). Both PS analyses consistently showed no increase in cancer recurrence risk in the secondary surgery group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data showed no additional cancer recurrence risk by endoscopic resection before surgery of T1 CRC with high-risk histologic features.

Prognostic factors in patients with complete response of the tumour (ypT0) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical resection of rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

There are only a few studies on the prognosis of patients with complete response of the tumour (ypT0) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) and radical resection of rectal cancer. The aim of the study was to identify prognostic factors with regard to oncological outcome in ypT0 patients after NCRT and radical resection.

METHODS

All ypT0 patients with rectal cancer after NCRT and radical resection between January 2010 and June 2019 were included. Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine the prognostic factors of these patients.

RESULTS

Seventy-six patients with ypT0 rectal cancer were included. In nine patients (11.8%), lymph node metastasis was identified. Age, gender, elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and ypN+ were risk factors associated with a worse 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate in univariate analysis (P = 0.08, 0.14, 0.007 and 0.003, respectively). In multivariate analysis, ypN+ and elevated CEA before NCRT were independent risk factors for worse 5-year DFS (P = 0.005 and 0.021, respectively). Elevated CEA before NCRT, post-operative chemotherapy and ypN+ were risk factors associated with worse overall survival in univariate analysis (P = 0.14, 0.002 and 0.17, respectively). However, in multivariate analysis, none of these three factors were independent risk factors for worse overall survival (P = 0.20, 0.34 and 0.06, respectively).

CONCLUSION

ypN+ and elevated CEA before NCRT were found to be independent risk factors for an unfavourable DFS in ypT0 patients with complete response of the tumour after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer.

Risk factors and predictors of lymph nodes metastasis and distant metastasis in newly diagnosed T1 colorectal cancer

Background

Lymph nodes metastasis (LNM) and distant metastasis (DM) are important prognostic factors in colorectal cancer (CRC) and determine the following treatment approaches. We aimed to find clinicopathological factors associated with LNM and DM, and analyze the prognosis of CRC patients with T1 stage.

Methods

A total of 17 516 eligible patients with T1 CRC were retrospectively enrolled in the study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004‐2016. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for LNM and DM. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify prognostic factors for overall survival. We performed the cumulative incidence function (CIF) to further determine the prognostic role of LNM and DM in colorectal cancer‐specific death (CCSD). LNM, DM, and OS nomogram were constructed based on these models and evaluated by the C‐index and calibration plots for discrimination and accuracy, respectively. The clinical utility of the nomograms was measured by decision curve analyses (DCAs) and subgroups with different risk scores.

Results

Tumor grade, mucinous adenocarcinoma, and age accounted for the first three largest proportion among the LNM nomogram scores (all, P < .001), whereas N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and tumor size occupied the largest percentage in DM nomogram (all, P < .001). OS nomogram was formulated to visually to predict 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐ year overall survivals for patients with T1 CRC. The calibration curves showed an effectively predictive accuracy of prediction nomograms, of which the C‐index were 0.666, 0.874, and 0.760 for good discrimination, respectively. DCAs and risk subgroups revealed the clinical effectiveness of these nomograms.

Conclusions

Novel population‐based nomograms for T1 CRC patients could objectively and accurately predict the risk of LNM and DM, as well as OS for different stages. These predictive tools may help clinicians to make individual clinical decisions, before clinical management.

Carcinoembryonic antigen reduction after medical treatment in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

The introduction of new drugs and multimodal treatments for the management of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) has reduced the importance of time-to-event endpoints and reported the attention on the response-related endpoints. Furthermore, the prognostic role of the surgical scores before the resection of metastases has not been confirmed for multimodal treatments. The purpose of this research is to perform a meta-analysis of the studies that evaluated the relationship between carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) response and outcome in patients with mCRC receiving systemic chemotherapy.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature on two databases and a selection of studies that evaluated the relationship between CEA response and outcome were performed according to predefined criteria. After, three meta-analyses were carried out on the selected studies, each for each outcome variable.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies have been selected. Fourteen studies (1475 patients) have documented a close association between radiological response and CEA response (odds ratio (OR), 9.03; confidence intervals (CIs), 5.14-15.87; I² statistic (I²), 72%). Four studies have reported a longer progression-free survival for patients with a CEA response (hazard ratio (HR), 0.73; CIs, 0.64-0.83; I², 23%). Finally, 10 studies (13 study cohorts) have shown a strong relationship between CEA response and overall survival (OS) (HR, 0. 62; CIs, 0.55-0.70; I², 35%).

CONCLUSIONS

CEA response merits further investigation as a surrogate endpoint of clinical trials of first-line medical therapy of patients with mCRC, and should be studied as a prognostic factor for those patients who are candidates for multimodal treatment strategies.

Current strategies for malignant pedunculated colorectal polyps

Despite significant advances in imaging techniques, the incidence of colorectal cancer has been increasing in recent years, with many cases still being diagnosed in advanced stages. Early detection and accurate staging remain the main factors that lead to a decrease in the cost and invasiveness of the curative techniques, significantly improving the outcome. However, the diagnosis of pedunculated early colorectal malignancy remains a current challenge. Data on the management of pedunculated cancer precursors, apart from data on nonpolypoid lesions, are still limited. An adequate technique for complete resection, which provides the best long-term outcome, is mandatory for curative intent. In this context, a discussion regarding the diagnosis of malignancy of pedunculated polyps, separate from non-pedunculated variants, is necessary. The purpose of this review is to provide a critical review of the most recent literature reporting the different features of malignant pedunculated colorectal polyps, including diagnosis and management strategies.

Pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen and outcome of patients with rectal cancer receiving neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation and surgical resection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation is the standard of care for patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma. The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the relationship of the baseline serologic concentration of the carcinoembryonic antigen with the outcome. Data sources included MEDLINE and Web of Science databases. A systematic search of the databases by a predefined criterion has been conducted. Chemo-radiation followed by surgical resection of rectal tumors was the intervention of interest. From selected studies, the relationships between carcinoembryonic antigen and pathologic complete response, disease-free survival and overall survival were assessed. Carcinoembryonic antigen correlated significantly and inversely with the rate of pathologic complete responses (OR 2.00). Similar to this relationship, a low baseline carcinoembryonic antigen concentration was associated with a better disease-free survival (OR 1.88) and a better overall survival (OR 1.85). Heterogeneity of studies and publication bias were considerable in evaluating the relationship of baseline carcinoembryonic antigen and pathologic complete response. Baseline carcinoembryonic antigen should be regarded as a predictor of outcome of patients undergoing neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation. A calibration of the cutoff value from 5 to 3 ng/ml appears more appropriate to this patient population and should be evaluated in prospective trials.

Incorporation of CEA Improves Risk Stratification in Stage II Colon Cancer

High-risk features are used to direct adjuvant therapy for stage II colon cancer. Currently, high-risk features are identified postoperatively, limiting preoperative risk stratification. We hypothesized carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) can improve preoperative risk stratification for stage II colon cancer. The National Cancer Database (NCDB 2004-2009) was reviewed for stage II colon adenocarcinoma patients undergoing curative intent resection. A novel risk stratification including both traditional high-risk features (T4 lesion, <12 lymph nodes sampled, and poor differentiation) and elevated CEA was developed. Unadjusted Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox proportional hazards analyzed overall survival. Concordance Probability Estimates (CPE) assessed discrimination. Seventy-four thousand nine hundred forty-five patients were identified; 40,844 (54.5%) had CEA levels reported and were included. Chemotherapy administration was similar between normal and elevated CEA groups (23.8 vs. 25.1%, p = 0.003). Compared to patients with CEA elevation, 5-year overall survival in patients with normal CEA was improved (74.5 vs. 63.4%, p < 0.001). Restratification incorporating CEA resulted in reclassification of 6912 patients (16.9%) from average to high risk. CPE increased for novel risk stratification (0.634 vs. 0.612, SE = 0.005). The routinely available CEA test improved risk stratification for stage II colon cancer. CEA not only may improve staging of colon cancer but may also help guide additional therapy.

Overexpression of MutL homolog 1 and MutS homolog 2 proteins have reversed prognostic implications for stage I-II colon cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The outcome of colon cancer patients without lymph node metastasis is heterogeneous. Searching for new prognostic markers is warranted.

METHODS

One hundred twenty stage I-II colon cancer patients who received complete surgical excision during 1995-2004 were selected for this biomarker study. Immunohistochemical method was used to assess p53, epidermal growth factor receptor, MLH1, and MSH2 status. KRAS mutation was examined by direct sequencing.

RESULTS

Thirty three patients (27.5%) developed metachronous metastasis during follow up. By multivariate analysis, only female gender (p = 0.03), high serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (≧5 ng/ml) (p = 0.04), and MLH1 overexpression (p = 0.003) were associated with the metastasis group. The 5-year-survival rate were also significantly lower for female gender (71.7% versus 88.9%, p = 0.025), high CEA level (64.9% versus 92.4%, p < 0.001), and MLH1 overexpression (77.5% versus 94.4%, p = 0.039). In contrast, MSH2 overexpression was associated with better survival, 95.1% versus 75.5% (p = 0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

The reversed prognostic implications in the overexpression of MLH1 and MSH2 for stage I-II colon cancer patients is a novel finding and worthy of further confirmation.

The Prognostic Role of Para-Aortic Lymph Nodes in Patients with Colorectal Cancer: Is It Regional or Distant Disease?

Introduction

Visible para-aortic lymph nodes of ≥2 mm in size are common metastatic patterns of colorectal cancer (CRC) seen on imaging. Their prognostic value, however, remains inconclusive. We aimed to assess the prognostic role of visible para-aortic lymph nodes (PALNs).

Methods

Patients with confirmed pathologic diagnosis of CRC were enrolled. Correlations among clinicopathologic variables were analyzed using the χ² test. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied for univariate and multivariate analyses. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. A prognostic model for visible PALNs in CRC patients was established.

Results

In total, 4527 newly diagnosed CRC patients were enrolled. Patients with visible PALNs had inferior overall survival compared to those without visible PALNs (5-year overall survival, 67% vs. 76%, P = 0.015). Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) (hazard ratio = 1.865, P = 0.015); nodal disease (pN+) status (hazard ratio = 2.099, P = 0.006); elevated preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels (hazard ratio = 2.263, P < 0.001); and visible PALNs ≥10 mm (hazard ratio = 1.638, P = 0.031) were independent prognostic factors for patients with visible PALNs. If each prognostic factor scored one point, 5-year overall survival of lower- (prognostic score 0–1), intermediate- (prognostic score 2), and high- (prognostic score 3–4) risk groups were, 78%. 54%, and 25% respectively (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The prognostic model, which included LVI, pN+ status, preoperative serum CEA level, and the size of visible PALNs, could effectively distinguish the outcome of patients with visible PALNs.

Oligo-β-(1 → 3)-glucans: impact of thio-bridges on immunostimulating activities and the development of cancer stem cells

Recent developments of innovative anticancer therapies are based on compounds likely to stimulate the immune defense of the patients. β-(1 → 3)-Glucans are natural polysaccharides well-known for their immunostimulating properties. We report here on the synthesis of small oligo-β-(1 → 3)-glucans characterized by thioglycosidic linkages. The presence of sulfur atom(s) was not only crucial to prolong in vivo immunoactive activities in time, compared to native polysaccharides, but sulfur atoms also had a direct impact on the development of colorectal cancer stem cells. As a result, a short, pure, and structurally well-defined trisaccharidic thioglucan demonstrated similar activities compared to those of natural laminarin.

Early stage colon cancer

Evidence has now accumulated that colonoscopy and removal of polyps, especially during screening and surveillance programs, is effective in overall risk reduction for colon cancer. After resection of malignant pedunculated colon polyps or early stage colon cancers, long-term repeated surveillance programs can also lead to detection and removal of asymptomatic high risk advanced adenomas and new early stage metachronous cancers. Early stage colon cancer can be defined as disease that appears to have been completely resected with no subsequent evidence of involvement of adjacent organs, lymph nodes or distant sites. This differs from the clinical setting of an apparent “curative” resection later pathologically upstaged following detection of malignant cells extending into adjacent organs, peritoneum, lymph nodes or other distant sites, including liver. This highly selected early stage colon cancer group remains at high risk for subsequent colon polyps and metachronous colon cancer. Precise staging is important, not only for assessing the need for adjuvant chemotherapy, but also for patient selection for continued surveillance. With advanced stages of colon cancer and a more guarded outlook, repeated surveillance should be limited. In future, novel imaging technologies (e.g., confocal endomicroscopy), coupled with increased pathological recognition of high risk markers for lymph node involvement (e.g., “tumor budding”) should lead to improved staging and clinical care.