Predictors of poor outcome in gastrointestinal bleeding in emergency department

The impact of inter-hospital transfer on outcomes in lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

This study investigates the role of interhospital transfer (IHT) in lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) management and its impact on patient outcomes, focusing on mortality rates, complication occurrences, procedural performance, and resource utilization in patients diagnosed with LGIB.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used data from the National Inpatient Sample database from 2017 to 2020. It included adult patients diagnosed with LGIB, assessing the impact of IHT on outcomes such as mortality, complication rates, procedural performance, and resource utilization. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and adjusted mean differences (AMD) were used to evaluate these impacts.

RESULTS

A total of 393,495 LGIB patients were analyzed, with 31,565 (8.02%) undergoing interhospital transfer. Transferred patients exhibited significantly higher inpatient mortality (AOR 1.96, P < 0.01). They also faced increased risks of acute kidney injury (AOR 1.32, P < 0.01), septic shock (AOR 2.11, P < 0.01), and intensive care unit admission (AOR: 2.61, P < 0.01). These patients were more likely to undergo interventional radiology-guided embolization (AOR 2.68, P < 0.01) and showed variations in colonoscopy procedures. Resource utilization was also higher among transferred patients, with an increased mean length of hospital stay by 4.37 days (P < 0.01) and higher hospitalization charges (mean difference $61,239, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Interhospital transfer in LGIB patients is associated with increased mortality, greater resource utilization, and the need for more specialized procedural interventions. Enhanced clinical vigilance and tailored resource allocation for transferred LGIB patients are necessary. Future research should optimize care strategies for these high-risk patients.

External Validation of SHA2PE Score: A Score to Predict Low-Risk Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding in the Emergency Department

Introduction: Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) frequently leads to emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations, encompassing a spectrum of outcomes from spontaneous resolution to intrahospital mortality. Aim: The purpose of this study was to validate a scoring system designed to identify cases of low-risk LGIB, allowing for safe discharge from the ED. Methods: A retrospective analysis of all gastrointestinal bleeding cases presented at three EDs in 2020 was conducted, focusing specifically on patients with LGIB. The SHA2PE score incorporates factors such as systolic blood pressure, hemoglobin levels, use of antiplatelet or anticoagulant medications, pulse rate, and episodes of bright blood per rectum. Results: Out of 1112 patients presenting with LGIB to the ED, 55 were hospitalized, 20 required blood transfusions, 15 underwent colonoscopies, one underwent interventional radiology procedures, and two patients died. Employing a SHA2PE score with a cutoff value of 1 yielded a specificity of 78.5% (95% CI (confidence interval) [75.8-81.0]), sensitivity of 76.8% (95% CI [63.6-87.0]), positive predictive value (PPV) of 17.0% (95% CI [12.6-22.2]), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.3% (95% CI [97.2-99.1]) for predicting the need for hospitalization and intrahospital intervention. When considering return visits to the ED within 7 days with the same presentation, the score demonstrated a specificity of 78.8% (95% CI [76.0-81.3]), sensitivity of 68.6% (95% CI [56.4-79.1]), PPV of 19% (95% CI [14.3-24.4]), and NPV of 97.2% (95% CI [95.8-98.2]). Conclusions: The SHA2PE score demonstrates potential in predicting cases of low-risk LGIB, offering a high NPV for hospitalization, the need for intrahospital intervention, and return visits to the ED. However, these findings should be interpreted cautiously given the low prevalence of interventions and limitations in the study's population and design.

Early prognosis prediction for non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the intensive care unit: based on interpretable machine learning

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to construct a mortality prediction model for patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) in the intensive care unit (ICU), employing advanced machine learning algorithms. The goal is to identify high-risk populations early, contributing to a deeper understanding of patients with NVUGIB in the ICU.

METHODS

We extracted NVUGIB data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, v.2.2) database spanning from 2008 to 2019. Feature selection was conducted through LASSO regression, followed by training models using 11 machine learning methods. The best model was chosen based on the area under the curve (AUC). Subsequently, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) was employed to elucidate how each factor influenced the model. Finally, a case was randomly selected, and the model was utilized to predict its mortality, demonstrating the practical application of the developed model.

RESULTS

In total, 2716 patients with NVUGIB were deemed eligible for participation. Following selection, 30 out of a total of 64 clinical parameters collected on day 1 after ICU admission remained associated with prognosis and were utilized for developing machine learning models. Among the 11 constructed models, the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model demonstrated the best performance, achieving an AUC of 0.853 and an accuracy of 0.839 in the validation cohort. Feature importance analysis highlighted that shock, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), renal disease, age, albumin, and alanine aminotransferase (ALP) were the top six features of the GBDT model with the most significant impact. Furthermore, SHAP force analysis illustrated how the constructed model visualized the individualized prediction of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient data from the MIMIC database were leveraged to develop a robust prognostic model for patients with NVUGIB in the ICU. The analysis using SHAP also assisted clinicians in gaining a deeper understanding of the disease.

Acute blood loss anemia in hospitalized patients is associated with adverse outcomes: An analysis of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample

BACKGROUND

Acute blood loss anemia is the most common form of anemia and often results from traumatic injuries or gastrointestinal bleeding. There are limited studies analyzing outcomes associated with acute blood loss anemia in hospitalized patients.

METHODS

The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) was analyzed from 2010 to 2014 (n = 133,809). The impact of acute blood loss anemia on in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), healthcare cost, and disposition was determined using regression modeling adjusted for age, gender, race, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Hospitalized patients with acute blood loss anemia had significantly higher healthcare cost (adj OR 1.04; 95% CI: 1.04-1.05), greater lengths of stay (adj OR 1.18; 95% CI: 1.17-1.18), and were less likely to be discharged home compared to the general medical population (adj OR 0.27; 95% CI: 0.26-0.28). Acute blood loss anemia was associated with increased risk for mortality in unadjusted models (unadj 1.16; 95% CI: 1.12-1.20) but not in adjusted models (adj OR 0.91; 95% CI: 0.88-0.94). When analyzing comorbidities, a "muscle loss phenotype" had the strongest association with mortality in patients with acute blood loss anemia (adj OR 4.48; 95% CI: 4.35-4.61). The top five primary diagnostic codes associated with acute blood loss anemia were long bone fractures, GI bleeds, cardiac repair, sepsis, and OB/Gyn related causes. Sepsis had the highest association with mortality (18%, adj OR 2.59; 95% CI: 2.34-2.86) in those with acute blood loss anemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute blood loss anemia is associated with adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients.

Lactate level as a predictor of outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A systematic review and meta‑analysis

There remains no consensus on the prognostic value of lactate in predicting adverse outcomes such as mortality, rebleeding and higher intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The present study aimed to determine the prognostic accuracy of lactate level in predicting adverse clinical outcomes in patients with acute UGIB. Systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed Central, SCOPUS, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Google Scholar and ScienceDirect databases for studies published up to February 2023. Random-effects model was used for the meta-analysis and the results were presented as pooled standardized mean differences or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CIs). A total of 11 studies were included in the present review. Most of the studies had a high risk of bias. Pooled OR were as follows: 1.39 (95% CI: 1.29-1.51; I2=85%) for the prediction of mortality; 1.29 (95% CI: 1.17-1.42; I2=85.9%) for prediction of ICU admission, 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06-1.23; I2=42.4%) for rebleeding and 2.84 (95% CI: 2.14-3.77; I2=8.1%) for the need of packed red blood cell (pRBC) transfusion. Sensitivity and specificity for the mortality prediction were 72% (95% CI: 57-83%) and 75% (95% CI: 61-85%), respectively, with the area under the curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72-0.85). In conclusion, the results showed that lactate level is a moderately accurate early prediction marker of most adverse clinical outcomes such as mortality, rebleeding, ICU admission and the need for pRBC transfusion in acute UGIB patients.

A Nomogram Model for Prediction of Mortality Risk of Patients with Dangerous Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Two-center Retrospective Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish a nomogram model to predict the mortality risk of patients with dangerous upper gastrointestinal bleeding (DUGIB), and identify high-risk patients who require emergent therapy.

METHODS

From January 2020 to April 2022, the clinical data of 256 DUGIB patients who received treatments in the intensive care unit (ICU) were retrospectively collected from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (n=179) and the Eastern Campus of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (n=77). The 179 patients were treated as the training cohort, and 77 patients as the validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the independent risk factors, and R packages were used to construct the nomogram model. The prediction accuracy and identification ability were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C index and calibration curve. The nomogram model was also simultaneously externally validated. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was then used to demonstrate the clinical value of the model.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis showed that hematemesis, urea nitrogen level, emergency endoscopy, AIMS65, Glasgow Blatchford score and Rockall score were all independent risk factors for DUGIB. The ROC curve analysis indicated the area under curve (AUC) of the training cohort was 0.980 (95%CI: 0.962-0.997), while the AUC of the validation cohort was 0.790 (95%CI:0.685-0.895). The calibration curves were tested for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit for both training and validation cohorts (P=0.778, P=0.516).

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram is an effective tool for risk stratification, early identification and intervention for DUGIB patients.

Palliative radiotherapy for gastric cancer bleeding: a multi-institutional retrospective study

Background

Palliative radiotherapy for gastric cancer bleeding has been reported to be a safe and effective treatment, but predictive factors for achievement of hemostasis and overall survival have not been established.

Methods

In this retrospective study, 120 courses of palliative radiotherapy for gastric cancer bleeding in 117 patients in 4 institutes in Japan were reviewed with approval of the ethical committee in each institute. The rate of achieving hemostasis was evaluated by 50% or more reduction of red blood cell transfusion before and after the start of radiotherapy, elevation of blood hemoglobin concentration in a period of 4 weeks from the start of radiotherapy or improvement of subjective or objective clinical symptoms in a period of 4 weeks from the start of radiotherapy. Predictive factors for overall survival and achieving hemostasis were investigated with the Cox hazards model.

Results

The median overall survival period was 3.7 months. Multivariate analysis showed that absence of metastatic disease, higher biological effective dose, higher serum albumin level, lower blood urea nitrogen level and lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were associated with longer overall survival. Elevation of hemoglobin concentration in a period of 4 weeks from the start of radiotherapy (mean concentration: 8.2 g/dL vs. 8.9 g/dL, p = 0.006) and decrease in the amount of red cell transfusion from a 4-week period before to a 4-week period after the start of radiotherapy (mean amount: 716 mL vs. 230 mL, p < 0.0001) were observed. The overall rate of achievement of hemostasis was 59.6%. In multivariate analysis, higher biological effective dose was associated with achievement of hemostasis. Grade 2 or higher acute adverse effects related to radiotherapy were observed in 17.5% of cases in 120 treatment courses. Six cases (5.0%) had grade 3 or 4 adverse effects including gastric penetration in 1 patient and anorexia requiring total parental nutrition in 3 patients. No grade 5 adverse effects were observed.

Conclusions

Palliative radiotherapy for gastric cancer bleeding seems to be an effective and safe treatment strategy. Higher treatment dose was associated with longer overall survival and a hemostatic effect. Some hematological parameters may predict overall survival, and they would be helpful for deciding the treatment strategy.

ω-3 fatty acid-enriched parenteral nutrition shortens hospital stay in acute variceal bleeding cirrhotic patients

Acute variceal bleeding, a crucial complication of liver cirrhosis requires high energy expenditures but gastrointestinal bleeding limits enteral feeding in the acute stage. We investigated the safety and efficacy of ω-3 fatty acid-enriched parenteral nutrition in acute variceal bleeding patients.In this retrospective study, a total of 208 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding who underwent parenteral nutrition in the absence of enteral nutrition were enrolled. Among the patients, 86 patients received ω-3 fatty-acid-enriched parenteral nutrition. The primary endpoint was to evaluate the duration of hospital stay and the presence of clinical complications of liver cirrhosis.The mean age of the patients enrolled was 54.9 years-old and 185 patients (88.9%) were male. The cause of liver cirrhosis, Child-Pugh score and comorbidities were statistically not different. Patients with ω-3 enriched parenteral nutrition had a significantly lower systolic blood pressure and total bilirubin levels. The difference in the in-hospital mortality (P = .813) or rate of complications (P = .880) was not statistically significant. The duration of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the patients who underwent ω-3 fatty acid-enriched parenteral nutrition (10.7 ± 7.3 vs 7.9 ± 4.2 days, P = .001).In liver cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding, ω-3 fatty acid-enriched parenteral nutrition significantly decreased the length of hospital stay. Further prospective studies to consolidate these findings are warranted.

Predicting mortality and readmission based on chief complaint in emergency department patients: a cohort study

Background

Emergency department (ED) patients present with complaints and not diagnoses. Characterization and risk stratification based on chief complaint can therefore help clinicians improve ED workflow and clinical outcome. In this study we investigated the 30-day mortality and readmission among ED patients based on chief complaint.

Methods

In this cohort study we retrieved routinely collected data from electronic medical records and the Danish Civil Registration System of all ED contacts from July 1, 2016 through June 30, 2017. All patients triaged with one chief complaint using the Danish Emergency Process Triage system were included. Patients with minor injuries were excluded. The chief complaint assigned by the triaging nurse was used as exposure, and 30-day mortality and 30-day readmission were the primary outcomes. Logistic regression was used to determine crude and adjusted ORs with reference to the remaining study population.

Results

A total of 41 470 patients were eligible. After exclusion of minor injuries and patients not triaged, 19 325 patients were included. The 30-day mortality and 30-day readmission differed significantly among the chief complaints. The highest 30-day mortality was observed among patients presenting with altered level of conscousness (ALOC) (8.4%, OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.1) and dyspnea (8.0%, OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.6). 30-day readmission was highest among patients presenting with fever/infection (11.7%, OR=1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.4) and dyspnea (11.2%, OR=1.7, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.0).

Discussion

Chief complaint is associated with 30-day mortality and readmission in a mixed ED population. ALOC and dyspnea had the highest mortality; fever/infection and dyspnea had the highest readmission rate. This knowledge may assist in improving and optimizing symptom-based initial diagnostic workup and treatment, and ultimately improve workflow and clinical outcome.

Level of evidence

Level III.

Prognostic factors associated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding based on the French multicenter SANGHRIA trial

Background and study aims  Prognostic and risk factors for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) might have changed overtime because of the increased use of direct oral anticoagulants and improved gastroenterological care. This study was undertaken to assess the outcomes of UGIB in light of these new determinants by establishing a new national, multicenter cohort 10 years after the first. Methods  Consecutive outpatients and inpatients with UGIB symptoms consulting at 46 French general hospitals were prospectively included between November 2017 and October 2018. They were followed for at least for 6 weeks to assess 6-week rebleeding and mortality rates and factors associated with each event. Results  Among the 2498 enrolled patients (mean age 68.5 [16.3] years, 67.1 % men), 74.5 % were outpatients and 21 % had cirrhosis. Median Charlson score was 2 (IQR 1-4) and Rockall score was 5 (IQR 3-6). Within 24 hours, 83.4 % of the patients underwent endoscopy. The main causes of bleeding were peptic ulcers (44.9 %) and portal hypertension (18.9 %). The early in-hospital rebleeding rate was 10.5 %. The 6-week mortality rate was 12.5 %. Predictors significantly associated with 6-week mortality were initial transfusion (OR 1.54; 95 %CI 1.04-2.28), Charlson score > 4 (OR 1.80; 95 %CI 1.31-2.48), Rockall score > 5 (OR 1.98; 95 %CI 1.39-2.80), being an inpatient (OR 2.45; 95 %CI 1.76-3.41) and rebleeding (OR 2.6; 95 %CI 1.85-3.64). Anticoagulant therapy was not associated with dreaded outcomes. Conclusions  The 6-week mortality rate remained high after UGIB, especially for inpatients. Predictors of mortality underlined the weight of comorbidities on outcomes.

Prealbumin and D-dimer as Prognostic Indicators for Rebleeding in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Determining the risk stratification of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) plays a vital role in treating upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Traditional scores like Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), Rockall score (RS), and AIMS65 score have been widely utilized in UGIB practice, however exhibiting limited practical use due to relative lack of user-friendly characters. Prealbumin as a nutritional indicator and d-dimer as a fibrinolytic activity monitor, are generally used to evaluate the overall nutritional and fibrinolytic condition in UGIB patients.

AIMS

Here, we explored the predictive value of these two markers in NVUGIB for evaluating severity and prognosis including rebleeding and surgery intervention.

METHODS

One hundred and eighty-five patients suffering NVUGIB were enrolled. Their GBS, RS, and AIMS65 score, routine laboratory test results including prealbumin and d-dimer were determined after admission. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to define the independent predictors of rebleeding. ROC curves were generated to compare the suitability of prealbumin, d-dimer, and scores for rebleeding prediction.

RESULTS

The NVUGIB patients with rebleeding exhibited higher scores, white blood cell counts, d-dimer, CRP, proportion of surgery intervention, and longer hospital stay, but lower hematocrit, hemoglobin, calcium, prealbumin, and fibrinogen than those without rebleeding. The multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that prealbumin and d-dimer were independent predictors for rebleeding. Values of prealbumin and d-dimer were correlated with hospital stay, ulcer degrees, and surgery demand. The ROC curve analyses showed that prealbumin and d-dimer exhibited superior prediction value over the scoring systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Prealbumin and d-dimer are promising predictors for severity and prognosis in NVUGIB practice.

Association of blood pressure documentation with adverse outcomes in an emergency department in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To associate blood pressure (BP) documentation with adverse outcomes in an emergency department (ED).

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study, and 642 records of patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary hospital in Brazil were used. We included medical records of patients of both sexes aged over 18 years, who were allocated in general wards in the period December 2015-June 2016. Association between BP measurements with length of stay (LOS), worsening of clinical presentation, unplanned patient transfer, readmission, stroke or transient ischemic attack, cardiorespiratory arrest, and death were investigated.

RESULTS

Association was observed between worsening of clinical presentation and systolic (p = 0.003) or diastolic (p = 0.001) BP values. The association between LOS and worsening of clinical presentation with the number of BP measurements or mean time between BP measurements was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Unplanned patient transfer was associated with an increase in the number of BP measurements (p < 0.001). The mean time between BP measurements was higher among patients who returned to the ED within 48-72 h (p = 0.030).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study showed association between BP documentation with adverse outcomes in the ED, reinforcing the need to develop educational strategies regarding nursing records and monitoring of vital signs.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in Egyptian patients with cirrhosis: Post-therapeutic outcome and prognostic indicators

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a serious complication of portal hypertension in cirrhotic patients. The objective of this study is to identify the risk factors for morbidity and mortality occurring after an UGIB attack.

METHODS

A total of 1097 UGIB attacks in 690 patients with liver cirrhosis were studied. Their clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic data were reviewed.

RESULTS

Mean age 53.2 ± 10.6 (20-90) years, 78% men and the main cause of liver disease was hepatitis C (94.9%). Complications occurred after 467 attacks (42.6%): hepatic encephalopathy 31.4%, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis 18%, renal impairment 13.2%, and re-bleeding in 7.8%, while 199 patients (18.1%) died. Complications followed 78.4% of bleeding from gastric varices, 75% of post-interventional ulcers, 10.8% of peptic ulcers, and 5.9% of telangiectasias. By univariate analysis: packed red blood cells units transfused, transaminases, Child-Pugh (CP), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores, beside the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), previous hemorrhage in the previous 6 months, and the source of bleeding, were associated with occurrence of complications. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors of complications were CP, MELD, and ALBI scores (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval: 5.63, 3.55-8.93; 1.15, 1.11-1.19; and 2.11, 1.4-3.19, respectively) beside the presence of HCC (4.89, 2.48-9.64). Mortality predictors were packed red blood cells units transfused (1.11, 1.01-1.24), CP (5.1, 1.42-18.25) MELD (1.27, 1.21-1.32) scores, and presence of HCC (6.62, 2.93-14.95).

CONCLUSION

High CP, MELD, and ALBI scores beside the presence of HCC could predict poor outcome of UGIB. In the absence of these risk factors, early discharge could be considered if the source of bleeding is peptic ulcer or telangiectasia.

Usefulness of the Delta Neutrophil Index to Predict 30-Day Mortality in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

PURPOSE

The delta neutrophil index (DNI), reflecting the fraction of circulating immature granulocytes, is associated with increased mortality in patients with systemic inflammation. It is rapidly and easily measured while performing a complete blood count. This study aimed to determine whether the DNI can predict short-term mortality in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH).

METHODS

We retrospectively identified consecutive patients (>18 years old) with UGIH admitted to the ED from January 1, 2015 to February 28, 2016. The diagnosis of UGIH was confirmed using clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic findings. The DNI was determined on each day of hospitalization. The outcome of interest was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Overall, 432 patients with UGIH met our inclusion criteria. The multivariate Cox regression model demonstrated that higher DNI values on days 0 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.17; P = 0.012) and 1 (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.24; P = 0.001) were strong independent predictors of short-term mortality. Further, a DNI >1% at ED admission was associated with an increased risk (HR, 40.9; 95% CI, 20.8-80.5; P < 0.001) of 30-day mortality. The optimal cut-off value for DNI on day 1 was 2.6%; this was associated with an increased hazard of 30-day mortality following UGIH (HR, 7.85; 95% CI, 3.59-17.15; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The DNI can be measured rapidly and simply at ED admission without additional cost or time burden. Increased DNI values independently predict 30-day mortality in patients with UGIH.

Reduced level of arousal and increased mortality in adult acute medical admissions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Reduced level of arousal is commonly observed in medical admissions and may predict in-hospital mortality. Delirium and reduced level of arousal are closely related. We systematically reviewed and conducted a meta-analysis of studies in adult acute medical patients of the relationship between reduced level of arousal on admission and in-hospital mortality.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42016022048), searching MEDLINE and EMBASE. We included studies of adult patients admitted with acute medical illness with level of arousal assessed on admission and mortality rates reported. We performed meta-analysis using a random effects model.

Results

From 23,941 studies we included 21 with 14 included in the meta-analysis. Mean age range was 33.4 - 83.8 years. Studies considered unselected general medical admissions (8 studies, n=13,039) or specific medical conditions (13 studies, n=38,882). Methods of evaluating level of arousal varied. The prevalence of reduced level of arousal was 3.1%-76.9% (median 13.5%). Mortality rates were 1.7%-58% (median 15.9%). Reduced level of arousal was associated with higher in-hospital mortality (pooled OR 5.71; 95% CI 4.21-7.74; low quality evidence: high risk of bias, clinical heterogeneity and possible publication bias).

Conclusions

Reduced level of arousal on hospital admission may be a strong predictor of in-hospital mortality. Most evidence was of low quality. Reduced level of arousal is highly specific to delirium, better formal detection of hypoactive delirium and implementation of care pathways may improve outcomes. Future studies to assess the impact of interventions on in-hospital mortality should use validated assessments of both level of arousal and delirium.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-017-0661-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prognostic Significance of Elevated Cardiac Troponin in Acute Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) is responsible for over 140,000 hospitalizations annually. Cardiovascular-related deaths account for 30% of the patients surviving the initial episode of AGIB. The purpose of this study was to identify the impact of elevated troponin on short-term mortality and length of stay (LOS) of these patients.

METHODS

From July 2013 to July 2016, 290 patients admitted with a diagnosis of AGIB and who had cardiac troponin I measured within 24 h of presentation were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical variables including 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission and LOS were then compared between the groups of troponin elevation and no troponin elevation.

RESULTS

The overall 30-day mortality among patients with AGIB was 6.5% (19/290). Cardiac troponin was elevated in 10% of patients (29/290). Among patients with normal troponin, 5% (13/261) died within 30 days. In patients with troponin elevation, 21% died in the same period (6/29, P = 0.001). The LOS was also higher in patients with troponin elevation (6 vs. 5 days, P = 0.02). There was no difference in 30-day readmission among the two groups. Past history of coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, hypertension, aspirin use and elevated creatinine was more common in patients with troponin elevation. On multivariate analysis, troponin elevation on presentation is associated with increased mortality (odds: 5.50, CI: 1.73 - 17.47, P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

In patients admitted to the inpatient service with AGIB, elevated troponin I on presentation is associated with high short-term mortality and longer hospital stay.

Predictors of acute gastrointestinal bleeding in diabetic ketoacidosis: a retrospective observational study in minority population

Background

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is a common acute complication of diabetes mellitus requiring aggressive medical management. We attempted to study the incidence and various clinical and laboratory variables associated with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB) and acute upper AGIB (AUGIB) in patients with DKA.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective chart review of all the patients admitted to our hospital with DKA between January 2010 and December 2015. We collected demographic, clinical, laboratory, endoscopy and hospitalization details using an electronic medical-record database. Patients were divided into two groups based on the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding.

Results

A total of 234 patients with DKA were admitted during this period, of which 27 (11.5%) patients had documented AGIB. The majority of patients had hematemesis (n=22, 9.4%) except two had rectal and three had occult bleeding. We did not notice any difference in age, gender and ethnicity distribution between the two groups. There was no difference in the serum levels of electrolytes, anion gap, pH and hemoglobin A1C between the two groups. However, patients with AGIB had significantly higher initial blood glucose levels (738 vs 613 mg/dL, p =0.014). There was also increased mortality (7.4% vs 4.8%) in patients with AGIB, but this did not reach statistical significance.

Conclusion

We conclude that higher initial serum blood glucose was associated with increased incidence of AGIB in patients admitted with DKA. We also noted increased in-patient mortality in patients with DKA who had AGIB, even though statistically insignificant. More aggressive measures to correct blood glucose levels may result in decreased incidence of AGIB, thereby reducing mortality during hospitalization in patients with DKA.

Change ratio of hemoglobin has predictive value for upper gastrointestinal bleeding

The present study aimed to identify novel predictors of upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding by assessing change ratios of blood test variables. Records of 1,023 patients (431 men and 592 women) who underwent endoscopy between October 2014 and September 2015 at the National Hospital Organization Shimoshizu Hospital (Yotsukaido, Japan) were retrospectively analyzed. Patients whose blood test variables for the time-point of endoscopy and three months previously were available were enrolled and subsequently categorized into a group with and another one without upper GI bleeding (n=32 and 84, respectively), and the respective change ratios were calculated for each group. One-way analysis of variance revealed that in patients with upper GI bleeding, change ratios of white blood cell count and alkaline phosphatase were significantly higher than those in patients without, while change ratios of hemoglobin (Hb), total protein and albumin were significantly reduced. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the change ratio of Hb was significantly correlated with upper GI bleeding. Receiver-operator characteristic analysis revealed that an 18.7% reduction of Hb was the threshold value for the prediction of upper GI bleeding. In conclusion, the present study revealed that a ≥18.7% reduction in Hb over three months has predictive value for upper GI bleeding.