Clinical-radiomics nomogram for predicting esophagogastric variceal bleeding risk noninvasively in patients with cirrhosis

Development of a non-invasive diagnostic model for high-risk esophageal varices based on radiomics of spleen CT

PURPOSE

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of radiomics models derived from multi-phase spleen CT for high-risk esophageal varices (HREV) in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively selected cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices from two hospitals from September 2019 to September 2023. Patients underwent non-contrast and contrast-enhanced CT scans and were categorized into HREV and non-HREV groups based on endoscopic evaluations. Radiomics features were extracted from spleen CT images in non-contrast, arterial, and portal venous phases, with feature selection via lasso regression and Pearson's correlation. Ten machine learning models were developed to diagnose HREV, evaluated by area under the curve (AUC). The AUC values of the three groups of models were statistically compared by the Kruskal-Wallis H test and Bonferroni-corrected Mann-Whitney U test. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Among 233 patients, 11, 6, and 11 features were selected from non-contrast, arterial, and portal venous phases, respectively. Significant differences in AUC values were observed across phases (p < 0.05), and the arterial phase models showed the highest AUC values. The best model in arterial phase was the logical regression model, whose AUC value was 0.85, sensitivity was 83.3%, specificity was 80% and F1 score was 0.81.

CONCLUSION

Radiomics models based on spleen CT, especially the arterial phase models, demonstrate high diagnostic accuracy for HREV, offering the potential for early detection and intervention.

A clinical-radiomics nomogram for the prediction of the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

Objective

To develop a model that integrates radiomics features and clinical factors to predict upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Methods

104 decompensated cirrhosis patients with UGIB and 104 decompensated cirrhosis patients without UGIB were randomized according to a 7:3 ratio into a training cohort (n = 145) and a validation cohort (n = 63). Radiomics features of the abdominal skeletal muscle area (SMA) were extracted from the cross-sectional image at the largest level of the third lumbar vertebrae (L3) on the abdominal unenhanced multi-detector computer tomography (MDCT) images. Clinical-radiomics nomogram were constructed by combining a radiomics signature (Rad score) with clinical independent risk factors associated with UGIB. Nomogram performance was evaluated in calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility.

Results

The radiomics signature was built using 11 features. Plasma prothrombin time (PT), sarcopenia, and Rad score were independent predictors of the risk of UGIB in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The clinical-radiomics nomogram performed well in both the training cohort (AUC, 0.902; 95% CI, 0.850-0.954) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.858; 95% CI, 0.762-0.953) compared with the clinical factor model and the radiomics model and displayed excellent calibration in the training cohort. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the predictive efficacy of the clinical-radiomics nomogram model was superior to that of the clinical and radiomics model.

Conclusion

Clinical-radiomics nomogram that combines clinical factors and radiomics features has demonstrated favorable predictive effects in predicting the occurrence of UGIB in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This helps in early diagnosis and treatment of the disease, warranting further exploration and research.

Assessment of nomogram model for the prediction of esophageal variceal hemorrhage in hepatitis B-induced hepatic cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Esophageal variceal (EV) hemorrhage is a life-threatening consequence of portal hypertension in hepatitis B virus (HBV) -induced cirrhotic patients. Screening upper endoscopy and endoscopic variceal ligation to find EVs for treatment have complications, contraindications, and high costs. We sought to identify the nomogram models (NMs) as alternative predictions for the risk of EV hemorrhage.

METHODS

In this case-control study, we retrospectively analyzed 241 HBV-induced liver cirrhotic patients treated for EVs at the Second People's Hospital of Fuyang City, China from January 2021 to April 2023. We applied univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression to assess the accuracy of various NMs in EV hemorrhage. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curves of the receiver's operating characteristics were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinically relevant of nomograms.

RESULTS

In the prediction group, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified platelet distribution and spleen length as independent risk factors for EVs. We applied NMs as the independent risk factors to predict EVs risk. The NMs fit well with the calibration curve and have good discrimination ability. The AUC and DCA demonstrated that NMs with a good net benefit. The above results were validated in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Our non-invasive NMs based on the platelet distribution width and spleen length may be used to predict EV hemorrhage in HBV-induced cirrhotic patients. NMs can help clinicians to increase diagnostic performance leading to improved treatment measures.

Trends of hospitalisation among new admission inpatients with oesophagogastric variceal bleeding in cirrhosis from 2014 to 2019 in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University: a single-centre time-series analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the internal law and time trend of hospitalisation for oesophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) in cirrhosis and develop an effective model to predict the trend of hospitalisation time.

DESIGN

We used a time series covering 72 months to analyse the hospitalisation for EGVB in cirrhosis. The number of inpatients in the first 60 months was used as the training set to establish the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the number over the next 12 months was used as the test set to predict and observe their fitting effect.

SETTING AND DATA

Case data of patients with EGVB between January 2014 and December 2019 were collected from the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The number of monthly hospitalised patients with EGVB in our hospital.

RESULTS

A total of 877 patients were included in the analysis. The proportion of EGVB in patients with cirrhosis was 73% among men and 27% among women. The peak age at hospitalisation was 40-60 years. The incidence of EGVB varied seasonally with two peaks from January to February and October to November, while the lowest number was observed between April and August. Time-series analysis showed that the number of inpatients with EGVB in our hospital increased annually. The sequence after the first-order difference was a stationary series (augmented Dickey-Fuller test p=0.02). ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,1,1)12 with a minimum Akaike Information Criterion value of 260.18 could fit the time trend of EGVB inpatients and had a good short-term prediction effect. The root mean square error and mean absolute error were 2.4347 and 1.9017, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of hospitalised patients with EGVB at our hospital is increasing annually, with seasonal changes. The ARIMA model has a good prediction effect on the number of hospitalised patients with EGVB in cirrhosis.

Predictive value of machine learning models for lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer: A two-center study

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the digestive system, ranking sixth in incidence and fourth in mortality worldwide. Since 42.5% of metastatic lymph nodes in gastric cancer belong to nodule type and peripheral type, the application of imaging diagnosis is restricted.

AIM

To establish models for predicting the risk of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer patients using machine learning (ML) algorithms and to evaluate their predictive performance in clinical practice.

METHODS

Data of a total of 369 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at the Department of General Surgery of Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University (Xuzhou, China) from March 2016 to November 2019 were collected and retrospectively analyzed as the training group. In addition, data of 123 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at the Department of General Surgery of Jining First People's Hospital (Jining, China) were collected and analyzed as the verification group. Seven ML models, including decision tree, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine, naive Bayes, neural network, and logistic regression, were developed to evaluate the occurrence of lymph node metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. The ML models were established following ten cross-validation iterations using the training dataset, and subsequently, each model was assessed using the test dataset. The models' performance was evaluated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each model.

RESULTS

Among the seven ML models, except for SVM, the other ones exhibited higher accuracy and reliability, and the influences of various risk factors on the models are intuitive.

CONCLUSION

The ML models developed exhibit strong predictive capabilities for lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer, which can aid in personalized clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Comparison of Machine Learning and Logic Regression Algorithms for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Gastric Cancer: A two-Center Study

OBJECTIVES

This two-center study aimed to establish a model for predicting the risk of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer patients using machine learning (ML) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms, and to evaluate its predictive performance in clinical practice.

METHODS

Data of a total of 369 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy in the Department of General Surgery of Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University (Xuzhou, China) from March 2016 to November 2019 were collected and retrospectively analyzed as the training group. In addition, data of 123 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy in the Department of General Surgery of Jining First People's Hospital (Jining, China) were collected and analyzed as the verification group. Besides, 7 ML and logistic models were developed, including decision tree, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine (GBM), naive Bayes, neural network, and LR, in order to evaluate the occurrence of lymph node metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. The ML model was established following 10 cross-validation iterations within the training dataset, and subsequently, each model was assessed using the test dataset. The model's performance was evaluated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each model.

RESULTS

Compared with the traditional logistic model, among the 7 ML algorithms, except for SVM, the other models exhibited higher accuracy and reliability, and the influences of various risk factors on the model were more intuitive.

CONCLUSION

For the prediction of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer patients, the ML algorithm outperformed traditional LR, and the GBM algorithm exhibited the most robust predictive capability.

Machine Learning Radiomics Signature for Differentiating Lymphoma versus Benign Splenomegaly on CT

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop and validate a preoperative CT-based radiomics signature for differentiating lymphoma versus benign splenomegaly.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed CT studies from 139 patients (age range 26-93 years, 43% female) between 2011 and 2019 with histopathological diagnosis of the spleen (19 lymphoma, 120 benign) and divided them into developing (n = 79) and testing (n = 60) datasets. The volumetric radiomic features were extracted from manual segmentation of the whole spleen on venous-phase CT imaging using PyRadiomics package. LASSO regression was applied for feature selection and development of the radiomic signature, which was interrogated with the complete blood cell count and differential count. All p values < 0.05 were considered to be significant.

RESULTS

Seven features were selected for constructing the radiomic signature after feature selection, including first-order statistics (10th percentile and Robust Mean Absolute Deviation), shape-based (Surface Area), and texture features (Correlation, MCC, Small Area Low Gray-level Emphasis and Low Gray-level Zone Emphasis). The radiomic signature achieved an excellent diagnostic accuracy of 97%, sensitivity of 89%, and specificity of 98%, distinguishing lymphoma versus benign splenomegaly in the testing dataset. The radiomic signature significantly correlated with the platelet and segmented neutrophil percentage.

CONCLUSIONS

CT-based radiomics signature can be useful in distinguishing lymphoma versus benign splenomegaly and can reflect the changes in underlying blood profiles.

Assessing the Predictive Factors for Bleeding in Esophageal Variceal Disease: A Systematic Review

Esophageal varices, dilated submucosal distal esophageal veins, are a common source of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with portal hypertension. This review aims to comprehensively assess predictive factors for both the first occurrence and subsequent risk of esophageal variceal bleeding. A systematic search was conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) and Cochrane databases. A total of 33 studies were selected using rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Several predictive factors were identified for esophageal variceal bleeding, including the Child-Pugh score, Fibrosis Index, specific endoscopic findings, ultrasound parameters, portal vein diameter, presence and size of collaterals, CT scan findings, ascites, platelet counts, coagulation parameters, albumin levels, Von Willebrand Factor, bilirubin levels, diabetes mellitus, and the use of b-blocking agents in primary prophylaxis. The findings of this systematic review shed light on multiple potential predictive factors for esophageal variceal bleeding. Endoscopic findings were found to be reliable predictors. Additionally, ultrasound parameters showed associations with bleeding risk. This systematic review identifies multiple potential predictive factors for esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with portal hypertension. While certain factors exhibit strong predictive capabilities, further research is needed to refine and validate these findings, considering potential limitations and biases. This study serves as a critical resource for bridging knowledge gaps in this field.

Radiomics Applications in Spleen Imaging: A Systematic Review and Methodological Quality Assessment

The spleen, often referred to as the "forgotten organ", plays numerous important roles in various diseases. Recently, there has been an increased interest in the application of radiomics in different areas of medical imaging. This systematic review aims to assess the current state of the art and evaluate the methodological quality of radiomics applications in spleen imaging. A systematic search was conducted on PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. All the studies were analyzed, and several characteristics, such as year of publication, research objectives, and number of patients, were collected. The methodological quality was evaluated using the radiomics quality score (RQS). Fourteen articles were ultimately included in this review. The majority of these articles were published in non-radiological journals (78%), utilized computed tomography (CT) for extracting radiomic features (71%), and involved not only the spleen but also other organs for feature extraction (71%). Overall, the included papers achieved an average RQS total score of 9.71 ± 6.37, corresponding to an RQS percentage of 27.77 ± 16.04. In conclusion, radiomics applications in spleen imaging demonstrate promising results in various clinical scenarios. However, despite all the included papers reporting positive outcomes, there is a lack of consistency in the methodological approaches employed.