Beyond risk and ambiguity: Deciding under ignorance

Conceptualisation of Uncertainty in Decision Neuroscience Research: Do We Really Know What Types of Uncertainties The Measured Neural Correlates Relate To?

In the article "What are neural correlates neural correlates of?" published in the journal BioSocieties, Gabriel Abend points out that neuroscientists cannot avoid philosophical questions concerning the conceptualization and operationalization of social-psychological phenomena they deal with at the physiological level. In this article, we build on Abend's thesis and, through a systematic literature review of decision neuroscience studies, test it with the example of the social-psychological phenomenon of uncertainty in decision making. In this paper, we provide an overview of studies that appropriately attempt to conceptualise uncertainty, and then use these studies to analyse papers looking for neural correlates of uncertainty. Based on a systematic review of studies, we investigate what types of uncertainty authors in the field of decision neuroscience address and define, what criteria they use to distinguish between these types, what problems are associated with their conceptualization, and whether the neural correlates of different types of uncertainty can be accurately identified. The paper concludes that, particularly in the economic context, a collaboration between the natural and social sciences works well, and neuroscience studies use economic conceptualizations of uncertainty that are further developed by sophisticated decision tasks. However, the paper also highlights problematic aspects that obscure the understanding of the phenomena under study. These include the lack of criteria for distinguishing between different types of phenomena, the unclear use of the general concept of uncertainty, and the confusion of phenomena or their erroneous synonymous use.

How Outcome Uncertainty Mediates Attention, Learning, and Decision-Making

Animals and humans evolved sophisticated nervous systems that endowed them with the ability to form internal-models or beliefs and make predictions about the future to survive and flourish in a world in which future outcomes are often uncertain. Crucial to this capacity is the ability to adjust behavioral and learning policies in response to the level of uncertainty. Until recently, the neuronal mechanisms that could underlie such uncertainty-guided control have been largely unknown. In this review, I discuss newly discovered neuronal circuits in primates that represent uncertainty about future rewards and propose how they guide information-seeking, attention, decision-making, and learning to help us survive in an uncertain world. Lastly, I discuss the possible relevance of these findings to learning in artificial systems.

Neural Correlates of Decision-Making Under Ambiguity and Conflict

HIGHLIGHTS We use a simple gambles design in an fMRI study to compare two conditions: ambiguity and conflict.Participants were more conflict averse than ambiguity averse.Ambiguity aversion did not correlate with conflict aversion.Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex correlated with ambiguity level and ambiguity aversion.Activation in the ventral striatum correlated with conflict level and conflict aversion. Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities ("ambiguity"). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on expected value. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across participants. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. These novel results indicate that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Adapting to an Uncertain World: Cognitive Capacity and Causal Reasoning with Ambiguous Observations

Ambiguous causal evidence in which the covariance of the cause and effect is partially known is pervasive in real life situations. Little is known about how people reason about causal associations with ambiguous information and the underlying cognitive mechanisms. This paper presents three experiments exploring the cognitive mechanisms of causal reasoning with ambiguous observations. Results revealed that the influence of ambiguous observations manifested by missing information on causal reasoning depended on the availability of cognitive resources, suggesting that processing ambiguous information may involve deliberative cognitive processes. Experiment 1 demonstrated that subjects did not ignore the ambiguous observations in causal reasoning. They also had a general tendency to treat the ambiguous observations as negative evidence against the causal association. Experiment 2 and Experiment 3 included a causal learning task requiring a high cognitive demand in which paired stimuli were presented to subjects sequentially. Both experiments revealed that processing ambiguous or missing observations can depend on the availability of cognitive resources. Experiment 2 suggested that the contribution of working memory capacity to the comprehensiveness of evidence retention was reduced when there were ambiguous or missing observations. Experiment 3 demonstrated that an increase in cognitive demand due to a change in the task format reduced subjects’ tendency to treat ambiguous-missing observations as negative cues.

State of belief, subjective certainty and bliss as a product of cortical dysfunction

INTRODUCTION

Ecstatic seizures are focal epileptic seizures which are fascinating from a phenotypical point of view as they include intense positive affect, feelings of heightened self-awareness and enhanced well-being. They have been previously suggested to arise in the anterior insular cortex, although strong arguments are still lacking.

METHODS

We describe the cases of two new patients with ecstatic seizures. Their evaluation included a careful history, encouraging the patient to provide significant details about their ictal symptoms in order to better understand the origin of the sense of bliss and support the hypothesis of an insular involvement according to the current stage of knowledge. Ictal electroencephalographic and blood flow studies complemented these data in one patient.

RESULTS

The comprehensive description of the ictal ecstatic symptoms by the two patients has brought out an unfamiliar sense of absence of doubt which was at the basis of a feeling of meaningfulness and certainty. The ictal single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) showed an increased blood flow maximal at the junction of the right dorsal mid-insula and the central operculum.

CONCLUSIONS

The unveiling of an ictal sense of certainty during ecstatic seizures might imply, in the light of current knowledge, a defect in the system processing prediction errors within the framework of generalized predictive coding mechanisms of the brain. Accumulative evidence has recently highlighted a crucial role of the anterior insular cortex in this system, particularly in the detection of mismatch/conflict between prediction state and outcome. Abnormal activity related to epileptic seizure in a structure prevents its normal activity: in the anterior insula, it could prevent the detection of prediction errors, and thereby prevent the feeling of ambiguity (and the associated negative emotional component), leading to a blissful state which could be close to the deeper states of meditation.

Hemispheric asymmetries of cortical volume in the human brain

Hemispheric asymmetry represents a cardinal feature of cerebral organization, but the nature of structural and functional differences between the hemispheres is far from fully understood. Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging morphometry, we identified several volumetric differences between the two hemispheres of the human brain. Heteromodal inferoparietal and lateral prefrontal cortices are more extensive in the right than left hemisphere, as is visual cortex. Heteromodal mesial and orbital prefrontal and cingulate cortices are more extensive in the left than right hemisphere, as are somatosensory, parts of motor, and auditory cortices. Thus, heteromodal association cortices are more extensively represented on the lateral aspect of the right than in the left hemisphere, and modality-specific cortices are more extensively represented on the lateral aspect of the left than in the right hemisphere. On the mesial aspect heteromodal association cortices are more extensively represented in the left than right hemisphere.