Hierarchical modeling of contingency-based source monitoring: A test of the probability-matching account

Remembering the truth or falsity of advertising claims: A preregistered model-based test of three competing theoretical accounts

Given the large amount of information that people process daily, it is important to understand memory for the truth and falsity of information. The most prominent theoretical models in this regard are the Cartesian model and the Spinozan model. The former assumes that both "true" and "false" tags may be added to the memory representation of encoded information; the latter assumes that only falsity is tagged. In the present work, we contrasted these two models with an expectation-violation model hypothesizing that truth or falsity tags are assigned when expectations about truth or falsity must be revised in light of new information. An interesting implication of the expectation-violation model is that a context with predominantly false information leads to the tagging of truth whereas a context with predominantly true information leads to the tagging of falsity. To test the three theoretical models against each other, veracity expectations were manipulated between participants by varying the base rates of allegedly true and false advertising claims. Memory for the veracity of these claims was assessed using a model-based analysis. To increase methodological rigor and transparency in the specification of the measurement model, we preregistered, a priori, the details of the model-based analysis test. Despite a large sample size (N = 208), memory for truth and falsity did not differ, regardless of the base rates of true and false claims. The results thus support the Cartesian model and provide evidence against the Spinozan model and the expectation-violation model.

Incidental learning of faces during threat: No evidence for enhanced physiological responses to former threat identities

Remembering an unfamiliar person and the contextual conditions of that encounter is important for adaptive future behavior, especially in a potentially dangerous situation. Initiating defensive behavior in the presence of former dangerous circumstances can be crucial. Recent studies showed selective electrocortical processing of faces that were previously seen in a threat context compared to a safety context, however, this was not reflected in conscious recognition performance. Here, we investigated whether previously seen threat-faces, that could not be remembered, were capable to activate defensive psychophysiological response systems. During an encoding phase, 50 participants with low to moderate levels of anxiety viewed 40 face pictures with neutral expressions (6 s each), without an explicit learning instruction (incidental learning task). Each half of the faces were presented with contextual background colors that signaled either threat-of-shock or safety. In the recognition phase, all old and additional new faces (total of 60) were presented intermixed without context information. Participants had to decide whether a face was new or had been presented previously in a threatening or a safe context. Results show moderate face recognition independent of context conditions. Startle reflex and skin conductance responses (SCR) were more pronounced for threat compared to safety during encoding. For SCR, this differentiation was enhanced with higher levels of depression and anxiety. There were no differential startle reflex or SCR effects during recognition. From a clinical perspective, these findings do not support the notion that perceptual biases and physiological arousal directly relate to threat-associated identity recognition deficits in healthy and clinical participants with anxiety and trauma-related disorders.

Remedying the Metamemory Expectancy Illusion in Source Monitoring: Are there Effects on Restudy Choices and Source Memory?

Metamemory monitoring, study behavior, and memory are presumably causally connected. When people misjudge their memory, their study behavior should be biased accordingly. Remedying metamemory illusions should debias study behavior and improve memory. One metamemory illusion concerns source memory, a critical aspect of episodic memory. People predict better source memory for items that originated from an expected source (e.g., toothbrush in a bathroom) rather than an unexpected source (e.g., shampoo in a kitchen), whereas actual source memory shows the opposite: an inconsistency effect. This expectancy illusion biases restudy choices: Participants restudy more unexpected than expected source-item pairs. The authors tested the causal relationships between metamemory and source memory with a delay and a source-retrieval attempt between study and metamemory judgment to remedy the expectancy illusion and debias restudy choices. Debiased restudy choices should enhance source memory for expected items, thereby reducing the inconsistency effect. Two groups studied expected and unexpected source-item pairs. They made metamemory judgments and restudy choices immediately at study or after delay, restudied the selected pairs, and completed a source-monitoring test. After immediate judgments, participants predicted better source memory for expected pairs and selected more unexpected pairs for restudy. After delayed judgments, participants predicted a null effect of expectancy on source memory and selected equal numbers of expected and unexpected pairs. Thus, the expectancy illusion was partially remedied and restudy choices were debiased. Nevertheless, source memory was only weakly affected. The results challenge the presumed causal relationships between metamemory monitoring, study behavior, and source memory.

Social threat and safety learning in individuals with adverse childhood experiences: electrocortical evidence on face processing, recognition, and working memory

BACKGROUND

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are often associated with stress and anxiety-related disorders in adulthood, and learning and memory deficits have been suggested as a potential link between ACEs and psychopathology.

OBJECTIVE

In this preregistered study, the impact of social threat learning on the processing, encoding, and recognition of unknown faces as well as their contextual settings was measured by recognition performance and event-related brain potentials.

METHOD

Sixty-four individuals with ACEs encoded neutral faces within threatening or safe context conditions. During recognition, participants had to decide whether a face was new or had been previously presented in what context (item-source memory), looking at old and new faces. For visual working memory, participants had to detect changes in low and high load conditions during contextual threat or safety.

RESULTS

Results showed a successful induction of threat expectation in persons with ACEs. In terms of face and source recognition, overall recognition of safe and new faces was better compared to threatening face-compounds, with more socially anxious individuals having an advantage in remembering threatening faces. For working memory, an effect of task load was found on performance, irrespective of threat or safety context. Regarding electrocortical activity, an old/new recognition effect and threat-selective processing of face-context information was observed during both encoding and recognition. Moreover, neural activity associated with change detection was found for faces in a threatening context, but only at high task load, suggesting reduced capacity for faces in potentially harmful situations when cognitive resources are limited.

CONCLUSION

While individuals with ACE showed intact social threat and safety learning overall, threat-selective face processing was observed for item/source memory, and a threatening context required more processing resources for visual working memory. Further research is needed to investigate the psychophysiological processes involved in functional and dysfunctional memory systems and their importance as vulnerability factors for stress-related disorders.

A multinomial modelling approach to face identity recognition during instructed threat

To organise future behaviour, it is important to remember both the central and contextual aspects of a situation. We examined the impact of contextual threat or safety, learned through verbal instructions, on face identity recognition. In two studies (N = 140), 72 face-context compounds were presented each once within an encoding session, and an unexpected item/source recognition task was performed afterwards (including 24 new faces). Hierarchical multinomial processing tree modelling served to estimate individual parameters of item (face identity) and source memory (threat or safety context) as well as guessing behaviour. Results show that language was highly effective in establishing threatening and safe context conditions. In Study 1, a fleeting picture stream (1 s per picture) led to poor item and source recognition. Prolonged presentation times (Study 2 with 6 s per picture) improved face memory but no contextual modulation was observed. Thus, incidental face learning was surprisingly poor and rapidly changing contextual settings might have interfered with the accurate encoding of face identity information and item-source binding.

Guess what? Different source-guessing strategies for old versus new information

The probability-matching account states that learned specific episodic contingencies of item types and source dominate over general schematic expectations in source guessing. However, recent evidence from Bell et al. [(2020). Source attributions for detected new items: Persistent evidence for schematic guessing. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 73(9), 1407-1422] suggest that this only applies to source guessing for information that is recognised as belonging to a previously encoded episode. When information was detected as being new, participants persisted in applying schematic knowledge about the sources' profession. This dissociation in source guessing for detected-old and detected-new information may have been fostered by the specific source-monitoring paradigm by Bell et al. (2020) in which sources were a group of individuals in a certain profession rather than fixed persons from that profession for whom episodic contingencies are more likely to persist also for new information. The aim of the present study was to test whether source guessing for detected-old versus detected-new information also dissociates in a more typical source-monitoring task, the doctor-lawyer paradigm, in which one individual doctor and one lawyer present profession-related information. Despite this change in paradigm, source guessing was based on the item-source contingency only for detected-old information, whereas schematic knowledge persisted for detected-new information. The present study thus adds evidence for persistent schema-based source guessing for new information.

The metamemory expectancy illusion in source monitoring affects metamemory control and memory

In source monitoring, schematic expectations affect both memory and metamemory. In metamemory judgments, people predict better source memory for items that originated from an expected source (e.g., oven in the kitchen) than for items that originated from an unexpected source (e.g., hairdryer in the kitchen; expectancy effect; Schaper et al., 2019a). By contrast, actual source memory is either unaffected by expectations or better for unexpected sources (inconsistency effect; Kuhlmann & Bayen, 2016). Thus, the metamemory expectancy effect is illusory. This research is the first to test the hypotheses that such metamemory monitoring of source memory affects metamemory control (i.e., measures taken to achieve a desired level of memory; Nelson & Narens, 1990) and memory. Due to their expectancy illusion, people should choose to restudy unexpected source-item pairs more often. Three participant groups (n = 36 each) studied expected and unexpected source-item pairs. One group rendered metamemory judgments and chose pairs for restudy. A second group made restudy choices only. These two groups then restudied the chosen pairs. A third group did not make restudy choices and restudied a random half of the pairs. All participants completed a source-monitoring test. As predicted, participants chose unexpected pairs more often for restudy based on their illusory conviction that they would remember unexpected sources more poorly. These restudy choices concurred with an inconsistency effect on source memory not shown in the group without restudy choices. Thus, the metamemory illusion related to control and memory in source monitoring.

Is knowledge reliance in source guessing a cognitive trait? Examining stability across time and domain

When people need to infer the source of information in the absence of memory, they may rely on general knowledge (e.g., stereotypes) to guess the source. Prior research documented task-related determinants and individual differences of stereotype reliance in source guessing, but little is known about the underling nature of this process. In two experiments, we tested whether a cognitive trait could account for the knowledge reliance in source guessing. Participants performed two distinct study-test cycles of a classical source-monitoring paradigm in which two person sources present stereotypical information that in a later test phase had to be attributed to its origin. In Experiment 1, both tasks used item material from the same knowledge domain (age stereotypes) and were either separated by 10 minutes or 7 days. In Experiment 2, we used item material from two different knowledge domains (Task 1: age stereotypes; Task 2: gender stereotypes). Although cross-task correlations of source-guessing parameters from Bayesian-hierarchical multinomial processing tree model analyses showed only weak positive correlations, absolute source guessing remained fairly stable within individuals across time (Experiment 1) and knowledge domains (Experiment 2). Considering statistical challenges of the assessment of relative stability via correlations, we suggest based on the stricter absolute stability criterion that source guessing rather encompasses trait-like features. We discuss implications regarding the generalizability and nature of source guessing in comparison to other cognitive processes involved in source attribution, which were highly stable in both experiments.

The Origin of Illusory Correlations

If the distributions of two binary variables are skewed, people erroneously perceive a correlation even if the variables are actually uncorrelated. Specifically, people perceive a correlation between the variables' infrequent (vs. frequent) levels. While such systematic Illusory Correlations (ICs) can account for important phenomena, including erroneous stereotypes linking minority groups with infrequent attributes, the theoretical explanation is still a matter of debate. As proposed in the distinctiveness-based account, ICs arise due to a memory advantage for infrequent events. Alternatively, it has been proposed that ICs reflect ad hoc inferences from univariate base rates. In two experiments, we tested the accounts' predictions using a standard IC paradigm followed by (1) a contingency judgment task, asking participants to directly report contingencies, and (2) a trial-by-trial source assignment task of group membership and attribute. Bayesian-hierarchical model analysis revealed that ICs in contingency judgments were positively correlated to ad hoc inferences, but uncorrelated to exemplar memory in participants' source assignments. Moreover, inducing a focus on infrequent events improved memory for distinct events, but did not result in stronger ICs. Thus, our results support the explanation of ICs as ad hoc inferences from base rates, rather than a memory advantage for distinctive item combinations.

Testing Hypotheses About Binding in Context Memory With a Hierarchical Multinomial Modeling Approach

In experiments on multidimensional source memory, a stochastic dependency of source memory for different facets of an episode has been repeatedly demonstrated. This may suggest an integrated representation leading to mutual cuing in context retrieval. However, experiments involving a manipulated reinstatement of one source feature have often failed to affect retrieval of the other feature, suggesting unbound features or rather item-feature binding. The stochastic dependency found in former studies might be a spurious correlation due to aggregation across participants varying in memory strength. We test this artifact explanation by applying a hierarchical multinomial model. Observing stochastic dependency when accounting for interindividual differences would rule out the artifact explanation. A second goal is to elucidate the nature of feature binding: Contrasting encoding conditions with integrated feature judgments versus separate feature judgments are expected to induce different levels of stochastic dependency despite comparable overall source memory if integrated representations include feature-feature binding. The experiment replicated the finding of stochastic dependency and, thus, ruled out an artifact interpretation. However, we did not find different levels of stochastic dependency between conditions. Therefore, the current findings do not reveal decisive evidence to distinguish between the feature-feature binding and the item-context binding account.

TreeBUGS: An R package for hierarchical multinomial-processing-tree modeling

Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are a class of measurement models that account for categorical data by assuming a finite number of underlying cognitive processes. Traditionally, data are aggregated across participants and analyzed under the assumption of independently and identically distributed observations. Hierarchical Bayesian extensions of MPT models explicitly account for participant heterogeneity by assuming that the individual parameters follow a continuous hierarchical distribution. We provide an accessible introduction to hierarchical MPT modeling and present the user-friendly and comprehensive R package TreeBUGS, which implements the two most important hierarchical MPT approaches for participant heterogeneity-the beta-MPT approach (Smith & Batchelder, Journal of Mathematical Psychology 54:167-183, 2010) and the latent-trait MPT approach (Klauer, Psychometrika 75:70-98, 2010). TreeBUGS reads standard MPT model files and obtains Markov-chain Monte Carlo samples that approximate the posterior distribution. The functionality and output are tailored to the specific needs of MPT modelers and provide tests for the homogeneity of items and participants, individual and group parameter estimates, fit statistics, and within- and between-subjects comparisons, as well as goodness-of-fit and summary plots. We also propose and implement novel statistical extensions to include continuous and discrete predictors (as either fixed or random effects) in the latent-trait MPT model.

Assumptions behind scoring source versus item memory: Effects of age, hippocampal lesions and mild memory problems

Source monitoring paradigms have been used to separate: 1) the probability of recognising an item (Item memory) and 2) the probability of remembering the context in which that item was previously encountered (Source memory), conditional on it being recognised. Multinomial Processing Tree (MPT) models are an effective way to estimate these conditional probabilities. Moreover, MPTs make explicit the assumptions behind different ways to parameterise Item and Source memory. Using data from six independent groups across two different paradigms, we show that one would draw different conclusions about the effects of age, age-related memory problems and hippocampal lesions on Item and Source memory, depending on the use of: 1) standard accuracy calculation vs MPT analysis, and 2) two different MPT models. The MPT results were more consistent than standard accuracy calculations, and furnished additional parameters that can be interpreted in terms of, for example, false recollection or missed encoding. Moreover, a new MPT structure that allowed for separate memory representations (one for item information and one for item-plus-source information; the Source-Item model) fit the data better, and provided a different pattern of significant differences in parameters, than the more conventional MPT structure in which source information is a subset of item information (the Item-Source model). Nonetheless, there is no theory-neutral way of scoring data, and thus proper examination of the assumptions underlying the scoring of source monitoring paradigms is necessary before theoretical conclusions can be drawn.

Influences of Age and Emotion on Source Guessing: Are Older Adults More Likely to Show Fear-Relevant Illusory Correlations?

OBJECTIVES

The present study investigates age differences in the vulnerability to illusory correlations between fear-relevant stimuli and threatening information.

METHOD

Younger and older adults saw pictures of threatening snakes and nonthreatening fish, paired with threatening and nonthreatening context information ("poisonous" and "nonpoisonous") with a null contingency between animal type and poisonousness. In a source monitoring test, participants were required to remember whether an animal was associated with poisonousness or nonpoisonousness. Illusory correlations were implicitly measured via a multinomial model. One advantage of this approach is that memory and guessing processes can be assessed independently. An illusory correlation would be reflected in a higher probability of guessing that a snake rather than a fish was poisonous if the poisonousness of the animal was not remembered.

RESULTS

Older adults showed evidence of illusory correlations in source guessing while younger adults did not; instead they showed evidence of probability matching. Moreover, snake fear was associated with increased vulnerability to illusory correlations in older adults.

DISCUSSION

The findings confirm that older adults are more susceptible to fear-relevant illusory correlations than younger adults.

How does aging affect recognition-based inference? A hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach

The recognition heuristic (RH) is a simple strategy for probabilistic inference according to which recognized objects are judged to score higher on a criterion than unrecognized objects. In this article, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of the multinomial r-model is applied to measure use of the RH on the individual participant level and to re-evaluate differences between younger and older adults' strategy reliance across environments. Further, it is explored how individual r-model parameters relate to alternative measures of the use of recognition and other knowledge, such as adherence rates and indices from signal-detection theory (SDT). Both younger and older adults used the RH substantially more often in an environment with high than low recognition validity, reflecting adaptivity in strategy use across environments. In extension of previous analyses (based on adherence rates), hierarchical modeling revealed that in an environment with low recognition validity, (a) older adults had a stronger tendency than younger adults to rely on the RH and (b) variability in RH use between individuals was larger than in an environment with high recognition validity; variability did not differ between age groups. Further, the r-model parameters correlated moderately with an SDT measure expressing how well people can discriminate cases where the RH leads to a correct vs. incorrect inference; this suggests that the r-model and the SDT measures may offer complementary insights into the use of recognition in decision making. In conclusion, younger and older adults are largely adaptive in their application of the RH, but cognitive aging may be associated with an increased tendency to rely on this strategy.

Hierarchical Multinomial Modeling Approaches: An Application to Prospective Memory and Working Memory

Hierarchical extensions of multinomial processing tree (MPT) models have been developed to deal with heterogeneity in participants or items. In this study, the beta-MPT model ( J. B. Smith & Batchelder, 2010 ) and the latent-trait approach ( Klauer, 2010 ) were used to estimate individual model parameters for prospective and retrospective components of prospective memory (PM), which requires remembering to perform an action in the future. The data from two experiments investigating the relationship between PM and working memory ( R. E. Smith & Bayen, 2005 , Experiment 1; R. E. Smith, Persyn, & Butler, 2011 ) were reanalyzed using the two hierarchical modeling approaches, both of which provide parameter estimates for individual participants. The results showed a positive correlation of the prospective component of PM with working-memory span and provide the first direct comparisons of the two hierarchical extensions of an MPT model.

Is prospective memory related to depression and anxiety? A hierarchical MPT modelling approach

Prospective memory (PM) refers to remembering to perform an action in the future. One hundred and twenty-nine students completed a laboratory event-based PM task as well as depression and anxiety questionnaires. The data were analysed with the beta-MPT version of the multinomial processing tree model of event-based PM. Thereby, the prospective and retrospective components of PM were estimated for each participant and were then correlated with depression and anxiety. State anxiety was negatively correlated with the prospective component of PM. Neither depression nor trait anxiety were related to either component of PM.

Inconsistency effects in source memory and compensatory schema-consistent guessing

The attention–elaboration hypothesis of memory for schematically unexpected information predicts better source memory for unexpected than expected sources. In three source-monitoring experiments, the authors tested the occurrence of an inconsistency effect in source memory. Participants were presented with items that were schematically either very expected or very unexpected for their source. Multinomial processing tree models were used to separate source memory, item memory, and guessing bias. Results show an inconsistency effect in source memory accompanied by a compensatory schema-consistent guessing bias when expectancy strength is high, that is, when items are very expected or very unexpected for their source.