Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-Like Habitats in the Galactic Disk

In Lammer et al. (2024), we defined Earth-like habitats (EHs) as rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of complex life (HZCL) on which Earth-like N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with minor amounts of CO2 can exist, and derived a formulation for estimating the maximum number of EHs in the galaxy given realistic probabilistic requirements that have to be met for an EH to evolve. In this study, we apply this formulation to the galactic disk by considering only requirements that are already scientifically quantifiable. By implementing literature models for star formation rate, initial mass function, and the mass distribution of the Milky Way, we calculate the spatial distribution of disk stars as functions of stellar mass and birth age. For the stellar part of our formulation, we apply existing models for the galactic habitable zone and evaluate the thermal stability of nitrogen-dominated atmospheres with different CO2 mixing ratios inside the HZCL by implementing the newest stellar evolution and upper atmosphere models. For the planetary part, we include the frequency of rocky exoplanets, the availability of surface water and subaerial land, and the potential requirement of hosting a large moon by evaluating their importance and implementing these criteria from minima to maxima values as found in the scientific literature. We also discuss further factors that are not yet scientifically quantifiable but may be requirements for EHs to evolve. Based on such an approach, we find that EHs are relatively rare by obtaining plausible maximum numbers of 2.5 - 2.4 + 71.6 × 10 5 and 0.6 - 0.59 + 27.1 × 10 5 planets that can potentially host N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with maximum CO2 mixing ratios of 10% and 1%, respectively, implying that, on average, a minimum of ∼ 10 3 - 10 6 rocky exoplanets in the HZCL are needed for 1 EH to evolve. The actual number of EHs, however, may be substantially lower than our maximum ranges since several requirements with unknown occurrence rates are not included in our model (e.g., the origin of life, working carbon-silicate and nitrogen cycles); this also implies extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) to be significantly rarer still. Our results illustrate that not every star can host EHs nor can each rocky exoplanet within the HZCL evolve such that it might be able to host complex animal-like life or even ETIs. The Copernican Principle of Mediocrity therefore cannot be applied to infer that such life will be common in the galaxy.

Modeling a Carrington-scale Stellar Superflare and Coronal Mass Ejection from κ 1 Cet

Observations from the Kepler mission have revealed frequent superflares on young and active solar-like stars. Superflares result from the large-scale restructuring of stellar magnetic fields, and are associated with the eruption of coronal material (a coronal mass ejection, or CME) and energy release that can be orders of magnitude greater than those observed in the largest solar flares. These catastrophic events, if frequent, can significantly impact the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets through atmospheric erosion or intense radiation exposure at the surface. We present results from numerical modeling designed to understand how an eruptive superflare from a young solar-type star, κ 1 Cet, could occur and would impact its astrospheric environment. Our data-inspired, three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic modeling shows that global-scale shear concentrated near the radial-field polarity inversion line can energize the closed-field stellar corona sufficiently to power a global, eruptive superflare that releases approximately the same energy as the extreme 1859 Carrington event from the Sun. We examine proxy measures of synthetic emission during the flare and estimate the observational signatures of our CME-driven shock, both of which could have extreme space-weather impacts on the habitability of any Earth-like exoplanets. We also speculate that the observed 1986 Robinson-Bopp superflare from κ 1 Cet was perhaps as extreme for that star as the Carrington flare was for the Sun.

Multiverse Predictions for Habitability: The Number of Stars and Their Properties

In a multiverse setting, we expect to be situated in a universe that is exceptionally good at producing life. Though the conditions for what life needs to arise and thrive are currently unknown, many will be tested in the coming decades. Here we investigate several different habitability criteria, and their influence on multiverse expectations: Does complex life need photosynthesis? Is there a minimum timescale necessary for development? Can life arise on tidally locked planets? Are convective stars habitable? Variously adopting different stances on each of these criteria can alter whether our observed values of the fine structure constant, the electron to proton mass ratio, and the strength of gravity are typical to high significance. This serves as a way of generating predictions for the requirements of life that can be tested with future observations, any of which could falsify the multiverse scenario.

Modeling Repeated M Dwarf Flaring at an Earth-like Planet in the Habitable Zone: Atmospheric Effects for an Unmagnetized Planet

Understanding the impact of active M dwarf stars on the atmospheric equilibrium and surface conditions of a habitable zone Earth-like planet is key to assessing M dwarf planet habitability. Previous modeling of the impact of electromagnetic (EM) radiation and protons from a single large flare on an Earth-like atmosphere indicated that significant and long-term reductions in ozone were possible, but the atmosphere recovered. However, these stars more realistically exhibit frequent flaring with a distribution of different total energies and cadences. Here, we use a coupled 1D photochemical and radiative-convective model to investigate the effects of repeated flaring on the photochemistry and surface UV of an Earth-like planet unprotected by an intrinsic magnetic field. As input, we use time-resolved flare spectra obtained for the dM3 star AD Leonis, combined with flare occurrence frequencies and total energies (typically 10^30.5 to 10³⁴ erg) from the 4-year Kepler light curve for the dM4 flare star GJ1243, with varied proton event impact frequency. Our model results show that repeated EM-only flares have little effect on the ozone column depth but that multiple proton events can rapidly destroy the ozone column. Combining the realistic flare and proton event frequencies with nominal CME/SEP geometries, we find the ozone column for an Earth-like planet can be depleted by 94% in 10 years, with a downward trend that makes recovery unlikely and suggests further destruction. For more extreme stellar inputs, O₃ depletion allows a constant ∼0.1-1 W m^-2 of UVC at the planet's surface, which is likely detrimental to organic complexity. Our results suggest that active M dwarf hosts may comprehensively destroy ozone shields and subject the surface of magnetically unprotected Earth-like planets to long-term radiation that can damage complex organic structures. However, this does not preclude habitability, as a safe haven for life could still exist below an ocean surface.

EXOPLANET MODULATION OF STELLAR CORONAL RADIO EMISSION

The search for exoplanets in the radio bands has been focused on detecting radio emissions produced by the interaction between magnetized planets and the stellar wind (auroral emission). Here we introduce a new tool, which is part of our MHD stellar corona model, to predict the ambient coronal radio emission and its modulations induced by a close planet. For simplicity, the present work assumes that the exoplanet is stationary in the frame rotating with the stellar rotation. We explore the radio flux modulations using a limited parameter space of idealized cases by changing the magnitude of the planetary field, its polarity, the planetary orbital separation, and the strength of the stellar field. We find that the modulations induced by the planet could be significant and observable in the case of hot Jupiter planets - above 100% modulation with respect to the ambient flux in the 10 - 100 MHz range in some cases, and 2-10% in the frequency bands above 250 MHz for some cases. Thus, our work indicates that radio signature of exoplanets might not be limited to low-frequency radio range. We find that the intensity modulations are sensitive to the planetary magnetic field polarity for short-orbit planets, and to the stellar magnetic field strength for all cases. The new radio tool, when applied to real systems, could provide predictions for the frequency range at which the modulations can be observed by current facilities.

A More Comprehensive Habitable Zone for Finding Life on Other Planets

The habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star(s) where standing bodies of water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. Space missions employ the HZ to select promising targets for follow-up habitability assessment. The classical HZ definition assumes that the most important greenhouse gases for habitable planets orbiting main-sequence stars are CO2 and H2O. Although the classical HZ is an effective navigational tool, recent HZ formulations demonstrate that it cannot thoroughly capture the diversity of habitable exoplanets. Here, I review the planetary and stellar processes considered in both classical and newer HZ formulations. Supplementing the classical HZ with additional considerations from these newer formulations improves our capability to filter out worlds that are unlikely to host life. Such improved HZ tools will be necessary for current and upcoming missions aiming to detect and characterize potentially habitable exoplanets.

Implications of Tides for Life on Exoplanets

As evident from the nearby examples of Proxima Centauri and TRAPPIST-1, Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone of low-mass stars are common. Here, we focus on such planetary systems and argue that their (oceanic) tides could be more prominent due to stronger tidal forces. We identify the conditions under which tides may exert a significant positive influence on biotic processes including abiogenesis, biological rhythms, nutrient upwelling, and stimulating photosynthesis. We conclude our analysis with the identification of large-scale algal blooms as potential temporal biosignatures in reflectance light curves that can arise indirectly as a consequence of strong tidal forces. Key Words: Tidal effects-Abiogenesis-Biological clocks-Planetary habitability-Temporal biosignatures. Astrobiology 18, 967-982.

Energy Dissipation in the Upper Atmospheres of Trappist-1 Planets

We present a method to quantify the upper-limit of the energy transmitted from the intense stellar wind to the upper atmospheres of three of the Trappist-1 planets (e, f, and g). We use a formalism that treats the system as two electromagnetic regions, where the efficiency of the energy transmission between one region (the stellar wind at the planetary orbits) to the other (the planetary ionospheres) depends on the relation between the conductances and impedances of the two regions. Since the energy flux of the stellar wind is very high at these planetary orbits, we find that for the case of high transmission efficiency (when the conductances and impedances are close in magnitude), the energy dissipation in the upper planetary atmospheres is also very large. On average, the Ohmic energy can reach 0.5 - 1 W/m ², about 1% of the stellar irradiance and 5-15 times the EUV irradiance. Here, using constant values for the ionospheric conductance, we demonstrate that the stellar wind energy could potentially drive large atmospheric heating in terrestrial planets, as well as in hot jupiters. More detailed calculations are needed to assess the ionospheric conductance and to determine more accurately the amount of heating the stellar wind can drive in close-orbit planets.

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere. We find that James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations longward of 10 μm could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST but may be within the reach of larger-aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4 absorption, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthetic biosphere. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 μm would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4-which has a longer atmospheric lifetime under Proxima Centauri's incident UV-and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer. Key Words: Planetary habitability and biosignatures-Planetary atmospheres-Exoplanets-Spectroscopic biosignatures-Planetary science-Proxima Centauri b. Astrobiology 18, 133-189.

Atmospheric escape from the TRAPPIST-1 planets and implications for habitability

The presence of an atmosphere over sufficiently long timescales is widely perceived as one of the most prominent criteria associated with planetary surface habitability. We address the crucial question of whether the seven Earth-sized planets transiting the recently discovered ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1 are capable of retaining their atmospheres. To this effect, we carry out numerical simulations to characterize the stellar wind of TRAPPIST-1 and the atmospheric ion escape rates for all of the seven planets. We also estimate the escape rates analytically and demonstrate that they are in good agreement with the numerical results. We conclude that the outer planets of the TRAPPIST-1 system are capable of retaining their atmospheres over billion-year timescales. The consequences arising from our results are also explored in the context of abiogenesis, biodiversity, and searches for future exoplanets. In light of the many unknowns and assumptions involved, we recommend that these conclusions must be interpreted with due caution.