CD4:CD8 ratio comparison between cohorts of HIV-positive Asians and Caucasians upon commencement of antiretroviral therapy

Asymptotic Properties for Cumulative Probability Models for Continuous Outcomes

Regression models for continuous outcomes frequently require a transformation of the outcome, which is often specified a priori or estimated from a parametric family. Cumulative probability models (CPMs) nonparametrically estimate the transformation by treating the continuous outcome as if it is ordered categorically. They thus represent a flexible analysis approach for continuous outcomes. However, it is difficult to establish asymptotic properties for CPMs due to the potentially unbounded range of the transformation. Here we show asymptotic properties for CPMs when applied to slightly modified data where bounds, one lower and one upper, are chosen and the outcomes outside the bounds are set as two ordinal categories. We prove the uniform consistency of the estimated regression coefficients and of the estimated transformation function between the bounds. We also describe their joint asymptotic distribution, and show that the estimated regression coefficients attain the semiparametric efficiency bound. We show with simulations that results from this approach and those from using the CPM on the original data are very similar when a small fraction of the data are modified. We reanalyze a dataset of HIV-positive patients with CPMs to illustrate and compare the approaches.

Analyzing clustered continuous response variables with ordinal regression models

Continuous response data are regularly transformed to meet regression modeling assumptions. However, approaches taken to identify the appropriate transformation can be ad hoc and can increase model uncertainty. Further, the resulting transformations often vary across studies leading to difficulties with synthesizing and interpreting results. When a continuous response variable is measured repeatedly within individuals or when continuous responses arise from clusters, analyses have the additional challenge caused by within-individual or within-cluster correlations. We extend a widely used ordinal regression model, the cumulative probability model (CPM), to fit clustered, continuous response data using generalized estimating equations for ordinal responses. With the proposed approach, estimates of marginal model parameters, cumulative distribution functions , expectations, and quantiles conditional on covariates can be obtained without pretransformation of the response data. While computational challenges arise with large numbers of distinct values of the continuous response variable, we propose feasible and computationally efficient approaches to fit CPMs under commonly used working correlation structures. We study finite sample operating characteristics of the estimators via simulation and illustrate their implementation with two data examples. One studies predictors of CD4:CD8 ratios in a cohort living with HIV, and the other investigates the association of a single nucleotide polymorphism and lung function decline in a cohort with early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

CD4/CD8 Ratio Recovery Among People Living With HIV Starting With First-Line Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitors: A Prospective Regional Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

We evaluated trends in CD4/CD8 ratio among people living with HIV (PLWH) starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) with first-line integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) compared with non-INSTI-based ART, and the incidence of CD4/CD8 ratio normalization.

METHODS

All PLWH enrolled in adult HIV cohorts of IeDEA Asia-Pacific who started with triple-ART with at least 1 CD4, CD8 (3-month window), and HIV-1 RNA measurement post-ART were included. CD4/CD8 ratio normalization was defined as a ratio ≥1. Longitudinal changes in CD4/CD8 ratio were analyzed by linear mixed model, the incidence of the normalization by Cox regression, and the differences in ratio recovery by group-based trajectory modeling.

RESULTS

A total of 5529 PLWH were included; 80% male, median age 35 years (interquartile range [IQR], 29-43). First-line regimens were comprised of 65% NNRTI, 19% PI, and 16% INSTI. The baseline CD4/CD8 ratio was 0.19 (IQR, 0.09-0.33). PLWH starting with NNRTI- (P = 0.005) or PI-based ART (P = 0.030) had lower CD4/CD8 recovery over 5 years compared with INSTI. During 24,304 person-years of follow-up, 32% had CD4/CD8 ratio normalization. After adjusting for age, sex, baseline CD4, HIV-1 RNA, HCV, and year of ART initiation, PLWH started with INSTI had higher odds of achieving CD4/CD8 ratio normalization than NNRTI- (P < 0.001) or PI-based ART (P = 0.015). In group-based trajectory modeling analysis, INSTI was associated with greater odds of being in the higher ratio trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

INSTI use was associated with higher rates of CD4/CD8 ratio recovery and normalization in our cohort. These results emphasize the relative benefits of INSTI-based ART for immune restoration.

Impact of age and gender disparity on CD4+ cell counts to control disease progression using specific HAART in HIV-1 positive patients: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) is composed of several drugs in the antiretroviral class to better treat human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) patients. The estimation of CD4+ T cell counts and HIV-1 viral load in plasma is required to evaluate the treatment success of a specific HAART.

METHODOLOGY

The study included the effects of NRTIs (nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors) and novel protease inhibitors (HAART) on normal control subjects and HIV-1 positive subjects from SGPGIMS, Lucknow, with different age groups and genders. Furthermore, the study was conducted by the estimation of HIV through ELISA, measurement of absolute CD4+ cell count, and the measurement of viral load through qRT-PCR. Furthermore, NRTIs (Retrovir and Epivir) were administered orally one tablet daily in the morning followed by newly FDA-approved protease inhibitors (fosamprenavir and darunavir) orally in the evening at the same dose. Furthermore, CD4+T cell counts and HIV-1 viral load were investigated and correlated in patients with different genders and age groups.

RESULT

Administration of NRTIs and novel protease inhibitors (HAART) in HIV patients had a significant effect on the CD4+ cell count in various age intervals among males and females. The mean comparison of viral load distribution based on gender in CD4 +ve patients in the case group exhibited a viral load higher in females compared to males, indicating a statistically significant difference between males and females (p<0.05). A notable association between virological and immunological parameters was observed with a reciprocal relationship between viral load and CD4 cell count in CD4 +ve patients, demonstrating multiple correlation coefficients with an R-value of 0.853.

CONCLUSION

The administration of specific HAART (NRTIs and novel protease inhibitors) in HIV patients had a notable improvement in the CD4+ cell count and viral load with significant age and gender disparity.

A novel prediction model to evaluate the probability of CD4+/CD8+ cell ratio restoration in HIV-infected individuals

BACKGROUND

Our study aimed to develop a clinical prediction model to evaluate the possibility of CD4+/CD8+ ratio restoration in HIV-positive individuals.

METHODS

About 1980, HIV/AIDS patients initiated with antiretroviral treatment from 1 January 2013, to 30 December 2016, at Beijing Ditan Hospital and achieved persistent virological suppression during the 4 years follow-up were included in this study. Multivariate Cox proportional regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors and establish a predictive model. The model's performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Overall, after 4 years of treatment, a total of 455 individuals (22.98%) restored their CD4+/CD8+ ratio (≥1). The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.782 and 0.743 in the deriving and validation cohort, respectively. The ultimate model included five indexes: age at AIDS diagnosis, albumin, and syphilis status, and baseline CD4+ and CD8+ values. A nomogram further visualized the model, and the calibration plots indicated high agreement of predicted and observed outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Our prediction model might be practical and easily applied to recognize HIV/AIDS individuals most likely to benefit from modern antiretroviral therapy.

Comparison of CD4 Counts with Mycophenolate Mofetil versus Methotrexate from the First-line Antimetabolites as Steroid-sparing Treatment (FAST) Uveitis Trial

PURPOSE

Sub-analysis of the FAST Trial comparing change in CD4 (∆CD4) from baseline through 12 months in uveitis patients treated with mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and methotrexate (MTX).

METHODS

Patients were randomly allocated to 1.5 g twice daily MMF or 25 mg weekly MTX. Individuals with CD4 counts at baseline, 6 months (or treatment failure prior), and 12 months (or treatment failure between 6 and 12 months) were included. The association between treatment and ∆CD4 (cells/μL) was analyzed using multivariable linear regression.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in ∆CD4 between MMF and MTX at 6 months (-31.7 cells/μL for MMF compared to MTX; 95% CI: -358.2 to 294.8, P = .85) and 12 months (-78.3 cells/μL for MMF compared to MTX; 95% CI: -468.0 to 311.3; P = .69).

CONCLUSION

There was no significant difference in ∆CD4 between MMF and MTX from baseline to 12 months, suggesting that MMF does not confer additional risk of CD4 lymphopenia in uveitic patients.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01829295.

Patterns of Antiretroviral Therapy Use and Immunologic Profiles at Enrollment in the REPRIEVE Trial

BACKGROUND

Patterns of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use and immunologic correlates vary globally, and contemporary trends are not well described.

METHODS

The REPRIEVE trial (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV) enrolled persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who were aged 40-75 years, receiving ART, and had low-to-moderate cardiovascular disease risk. ART use was summarized within Global Burden of Disease (GBD) super-regions, with adjusted linear and logistic regression analyses examining associations with immune parameters and key demographics.

RESULTS

A total of 7770 participants were enrolled, with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range, 45-55 years); 31% were female, 43% were black or African American, 15% were Asian, 56% had a body mass index >25 (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), and 49% were current or former smokers. The median CD4 T-cell count was 620/µL (interquartile range, 447-826/ µ L), and the median duration of prior ART use, 9.5 years (5.3-14.8) years. The most common ART regimens were nucleoside/nucleotide reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) plus nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (43%), NRTI plus integrase strand transfer inhibitor (25%), and NRTI plus protease inhibitor (19%). Entry ART varied by GBD region, with shifts during the trial enrollment period. In adjusted analyses, entry CD4 cell count and CD4/CD8 ratio were associated with GBD region, sex, entry regimen, duration of ART, and nadir CD4 cell count; CD4 and CD8 cell counts were also associated with body mass index and smoking status.

CONCLUSIONS

There were substantial variations in ART use by geographic region and over time, likely reflecting the local availability of specific medications, changes in treatment guidelines and provider/patient preferences. The analyses of CD4 cell counts and CD4/CD8 ratios may provide valuable insights regarding immune correlates and outcomes in people living with HIV.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02344290.

CD4+:CD8+ T Cell Ratio Normalization and the Development of AIDS Events in People with HIV Starting Antiretroviral Therapy

We identify factors associated with the normalization of the CD4+:CD8+ T cell ratio among UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study participants, and describe the association of the CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts and the CD4+:CD8+ T cell ratio, with the risk of new AIDS events among individuals who achieve a suppressed viral load. Participants initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) after 2006 with a CD4+:CD8+ T cell ratio <1, and viral suppression within 6 months were included. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine associations with ratio normalization (ratio ≥1). Poisson regression models were used to investigate factors associated with the development of AIDS after viral load suppression. A total of 13,178 participants [median age: 37 (interquartile range: 31–44)] were followed for 75,336 person-years. Of the 4,042 (32.9%) who experienced ratio normalization, individuals with a high CD4+ T cell count [>500 vs. ≤200 cells/mm³, adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 7.93 (6.97–9.01)], low CD8+ T cell count [>1,150 vs. ≤500 cells/mm³: 0.18 (0.16–0.21)], and low CD4+:CD8+ T cell ratio [>0.8 vs. <0.2: 12.36 (10.41–14.68)] at cART initiation were more likely to experience ratio normalization. Four hundred and nineteen people developed a new AIDS event. Most recent CD4+ T cell count [>500 vs. ≤200 cells/mm³: adjusted rate ratio 0.24 (0.16–0.34)] and CD4+:CD8+ T cell ratio [>0.8 vs. <0.2: 0.33 (0.21–0.52)] were independently associated with a new AIDS event. One third of study participants experienced ratio normalization after starting cART. CD4+ T cell count and CD4+:CD8+ T cell ratio are both individually associated with ratio normalization and the development of new AIDS events after cART.

Prognostic factors of a lower CD4/CD8 ratio in long term viral suppression HIV infected children

BACKGROUND

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with marked immune reconstitution. Although a long term viral suppression is achievable, not all children however, attain complete immunological recovery due to persistent immune activation. We use CD4/CD8 ratio like a marker of immune reconstitution.

METHODS

Perinatal HIV-infected children who underwent a first-line cART, achieved viral suppression in the first year and maintained it for more than 5 years, with no viral rebound were included. Logistic models were applied to estimate the prognostic factors, clinical characteristics at cART start, of a lower CD4/CD8 ratio at the last visit.

RESULTS

146 HIV-infected children were included: 77% Caucasian, 45% male and 28% CDC C. Median age at cART initiation was 2.3 years (IQR: 0.5-6.2). 42 (30%) children received mono-dual therapy previously to cART. Time of undetectable viral load was 9.5 years (IQR: 7.8, 12.5). 33% of the children not achieved CD4/CD8 ratio >1. Univariate analysis showed an association between CD4/CD8 <1 with lower CD4 nadir and baseline CD4; older age at diagnosis and at cART initiation; and a previous exposure to mono-dual therapy. Multivariate analysis also revealed relationship between CD4/CD8 <1 and lower CD4 nadir (OR: 1.002, CI 95% 1.000-1.004) as well as previous exposure to mono-dual therapy (OR: 0.16, CI 95% 0.003-0.720).

CONCLUSIONS

CD4/CD8 >1 was not achieved in 33% of the children. Lower CD4 nadir and previous exposure to suboptimal therapy, before initiating cART, are factors showing independently association with a worse immune recovery (CD4/CD8 < 1).

Reliably Measuring Cognitive Change in the Era of Chronic HIV Infection and Chronic HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders

HIV infection has become a chronic disease managed across the life span. In this context, the cognitive health of HIV infection needs to have methods for monitoring over time, in order to better anticipate HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) trajectories in relation to biomarkers, and predict prognosis and especially the risk of dementia as People Living with HIV (PLHIV) age. In this chapter, we critically review several statistical frameworks to quantify cognitive change. We then provide a critical review of naturalistic longitudinal studies and selected randomized clinical trials assessing neurocognitive change as a primary outcome in PLHIV, conducted since the advent of the combined antiretroviral therapy era (censored January 2019). Doing so, we distinguish between PLHIV who were treated early and did not experience AIDS (CDC 1993), versus treated late, after experiencing AIDS and more severe immune compromise. Highlighting strengths and limitations of these studies, we emphasize that issues of reliability pertaining to the use of neuropsychological tests need careful consideration for the robust quantification of cognitive change, including measurement error, practice effect, inter-individual variability, baseline level of functioning, demographic effects, timeframe between testing intervals, normative longitudinal data, and operationalization of clinically meaningful neurocognitive change. In addition, issues pertaining to longitudinal analyses including type, amount and pattern of missing data and/or participant attrition, regression toward the mean, and survivor bias need to be properly addressed. We conclude by proposing future research directions with emphasis on research translation to clinical participants.

CD4/CD8 ratio normalization rates and low ratio as prognostic marker for non-AIDS defining events among long-term virologically suppressed people living with HIV

Background

Immune restoration is often incomplete after ART in HIV patients, both quantitatively and qualitatively. We studied the incidence and probability of CD4/CD8 normalization in an adult Thai HIV cohort and explored the predictive value of the ratio for developing of non-AIDS defining events (NAEs).

Methods

We analyzed data from HIV-infected Thai adults between 1996 and 2017 in the HIV-NAT 006 prospective long-term cohort in Bangkok, Thailand. Normalization was defined as CD4/CD8 ratio ≥ 1 on two consecutive visits, and normalization probability was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. NAEs were a composite endpoint including cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases, chronic kidney diseases, non-AIDS defining malignancies and death. Multivariate Cox regression was used to evaluate demographic, disease and treatment characteristics associated with CD4/CD8 ratio normalization and NAEs.

Results

A total of 800 ART-naïve patients with baseline CD4/CD8 ratio of < 0.8 who started combination ART, and had sustained virological suppression were enrolled. Participants were on ART for a median of 8.9 years and virologically suppressed for 6.1 years. The probabilities of CD4/CD8 normalization at 2, 5 and 10 years after virological suppression were 5.1%, 18.6% and 39.1%, respectively. Factors associated with normalization in multivariate analysis were female sex (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.47, 95% CI 1.71–3.56, p < 0.001) and baseline CD4 counts ≥ 350 cells/mm³ (HR: 3.62, 95% CI 2.36–5.55), p < 0.001) vs. < 200 cells/mm³ as reference. The second analysis explored the predictive value of CD4/CD8 ratio for NAEs. Older age (HR: 1.09, 95% CI 1.05–1.13, p < 0.01) and current CD4/CD8 ratio < 0.3 (HR: 3.02, 95% CI 1.27–7.21, p = 0.01) or between 0.3 and 0.45 (HR: 2.03, 95% CI 1.03–3.98, p = 0.04) vs. > 0.45 were independently associated with higher risk of progression to NAEs in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

Our findings showed that complete immune recovery is uncommon in an Asian setting and earlier ART initiation at higher CD4 counts may have increased the ratio sooner. The findings demonstrate the use of CD4/CD8 ratio as a prognostic marker for clinical progression of NAEs.

Trial registration HIV-NAT 006 cohort, clinical trial number: NCT00411983