A nomogram for the prediction of overall survival in patients with stage II and III non-small cell lung cancer using a population-based study

A Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Carcinoma Patients: A Population-Based Study

Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains the most common malignant cancer. We identified 43140 advanced NSCLC patients from the SEER database to develop and validate a new prognostic model. The prognostic performance was evaluated by P value, concordance index, net reclassification index, integrated discrimination improvement, and decision curve analysis. The following variables were contained in the final prognostic model: age, sex, race, TNM stage, and grade and treatment options. Compared to the AJCC staging system, this prognostic model is conducive to the implementation of individualized clinical treatment schemes and can be an important part of the precise medical care of NSCLC tumors.

Survival prediction for stage I-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer using deep learning

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a prediction model for 2-year overall survival (OS) in stage I-IIIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who received definitive radiotherapy by considering clinical variables and image features from pre-treatment CT-scans.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

NSCLC patients who received stereotactic radiotherapy were prospectively collected at the UMCG and split into a training and a hold out test set including 189 and 81 patients, respectively. External validation was performed on 228 NSCLC patients who were treated with radiation or concurrent chemoradiation at the Maastro clinic (Lung1 dataset). A hybrid model that integrated both image and clinical features was implemented using deep learning. Image features were learned from cubic patches containing lung tumours extracted from pre-treatment CT scans. Relevant clinical variables were selected by univariable and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis showed that age and clinical stage were significant prognostic clinical factors for 2-year OS. Using these two clinical variables in combination with image features from pre-treatment CT scans, the hybrid model achieved a median AUC of 0.76 [95 % CI: 0.65-0.86] and 0.64 [95 % CI: 0.58-0.70] on the complete UMCG and Maastro test sets, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed significant separation between low and high mortality risk groups on these two test sets (log-rank test: p-value < 0.001, p-value = 0.012, respectively) CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that a hybrid model could achieve reasonable performance by utilizing both clinical and image features for 2-year OS prediction. Such a model has the potential to identify patients with high mortality risk and guide clinical decision making.

Develop and validate nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival for patients with testicular yolk sac tumors

Purpose

Testicular yolk sac tumor (TYST) is a rare malignant germ cell tumor that mainly occurs in young men. Due to the low incidence of yolk sac tumors, there is a lack of prospective cohort studies with large samples. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with TYST.

Materials and methods

Patient information was downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We enrolled all patients with TYST from 2000 to 2018, and all patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for patients. We constructed a nomogram based on the multivariate Cox regression model to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in patients with TYST. We used a series of validation methods to test the accuracy and reliability of the model, including the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

619 patients with TYST were enrolled in the study. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, T stage, M stage and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for CSS. A nomogram was constructed to predict the patient's CSS. The C-index of the training set and the validation set were 0.901 (95%CI: 0.859-0.847) and 0.855 (95%CI: 0.865-0.845), respectively, indicating that the model had excellent discrimination. The AUC showed the same results. The calibration curve also indicated that the model had good accuracy.

Conclusions

In this study, we constructed the nomogram for the first time to predict the CSS of patients with TYST, which has good accuracy and reliability and can help doctors and patients make clinical decisions.

Early stage NSCLS patients' prognostic prediction with multi-information using transformer and graph neural network model

Background:

We proposed a population graph with Transformer-generated and clinical features for the purpose of predicting overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) for patients with early stage non-small cell lung carcinomas and to compare this model with traditional models.

Methods:

The study included 1705 patients with lung cancer (stages I and II), and a public data set for external validation (n=127). We proposed a graph with edges representing non-imaging patient characteristics and nodes representing imaging tumour region characteristics generated by a pretrained Vision Transformer. The model was compared with a TNM model and a ResNet-Graph model. To evaluate the models' performance, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) was calculated for both OS and RFS prediction. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to generate prognostic and survival estimates for low- and high-risk groups, along with net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis. An additional subanalysis was conducted to examine the relationship between clinical data and imaging features associated with risk prediction.

Results:

Our model achieved AUC values of 0.785 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.716–0.855) and 0.695 (95% CI: 0.603–0.787) on the testing and external data sets for OS prediction, and 0.726 (95% CI: 0.653–0.800) and 0.700 (95% CI: 0.615–0.785) for RFS prediction. Additional survival analyses indicated that our model outperformed the present TNM and ResNet-Graph models in terms of net benefit for survival prediction.

Conclusions:

Our Transformer-Graph model was effective at predicting survival in patients with early stage lung cancer, which was constructed using both imaging and non-imaging clinical features. Some high-risk patients were distinguishable by using a similarity score function defined by non-imaging characteristics such as age, gender, histology type, and tumour location, while Transformer-generated features demonstrated additional benefits for patients whose non-imaging characteristics were non-discriminatory for survival outcomes.

Funding:

The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91959126, 8210071009), and Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (20XD1403000, 21YF1438200).

Prognostic nomograms for lung neuroendocrine carcinomas based on lymph node ratio: a SEER database analysis

Objective

The current study aimed to explore the prognostic value of the lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with lung neuroendocrine carcinomas (LNECs).

Methods

Data for 1564 elderly patients with LNECs between 1998 and 2016 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The cases were assigned randomly to training (n = 1086) and internal validation (n = 478) sets. The association between LNR and survival was investigated by Cox regression.

Results

Multivariate analyses identified age, tumor grade, summary stage, M stage, surgery, and LNR as independent prognostic factors for both overall survival (OS) and lung cancer-specific survival (LCSS). Tumor size was also a prognostic determinant for LCSS. Prognostic nomograms combining LNR with other informative variables showed good discrimination and calibration abilities in both the training and validation sets. In addition, the C-index of the nomograms was statistically superior to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system in both the training and validation cohorts.

Conclusions

These nomograms, based on LNR, showed superior prognostic predictive accuracy compared with the AJCC staging system for predicting OS and LCSS in patients with LNECs.

Imaging-Based Deep Graph Neural Networks for Survival Analysis in Early Stage Lung Cancer Using CT: A Multicenter Study

Background

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality, and accurate prediction of patient survival can aid treatment planning and potentially improve outcomes. In this study, we proposed an automated system capable of lung segmentation and survival prediction using graph convolution neural network (GCN) with CT data in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we segmented 10 parts of the lung CT images and built individual lung graphs as inputs to train a GCN model to predict 5-year overall survival. A Cox proportional-hazard model, a set of machine learning (ML) models, a convolutional neural network based on tumor (Tumor-CNN), and the current TNM staging system were used as comparison.

Findings

A total of 1,705 patients (main cohort) and 125 patients (external validation cohort) with lung cancer (stages I and II) were included. The GCN model was significantly predictive of 5-year overall survival with an AUC of 0.732 (p < 0.0001). The model stratified patients into low- and high-risk groups, which were associated with overall survival (HR = 5.41; 95% CI:, 2.32–10.14; p < 0.0001). On external validation dataset, our GCN model achieved the AUC score of 0.678 (95% CI: 0.564–0.792; p < 0.0001).

Interpretation

The proposed GCN model outperformed all ML, Tumor-CNN, and TNM staging models. This study demonstrated the value of utilizing medical imaging graph structure data, resulting in a robust and effective model for the prediction of survival in early-stage lung cancer.

Potential Impact of Cancer Susceptibility Genes on Lung Cancer Metastasis

Background. Studies of prognosis-related molecular markers are an important tool to uncover the mechanism of tumour metastasis. Cancer susceptibility gene testing is an important tool for genetic counselling of cancer risk. However, the impact of lung cancer susceptibility genes (LCSGs) on lung cancer metastasis and prognosis has not been well studied. Methods. The list of lung cancer susceptibility genes was retrospectively analysed and updated. After expression profiling and functional analysis, LCSG-based signatures for prognosis were identified by Cox regression and LASSO regression analyses. For translational purposes, nomograms integrating LCSGs and clinical characteristics were constructed. Results. A total of 301 LCSGs were employed for modelling. For lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC), 10-gene and 7-gene signatures were created and independently validated. The LCSG-based risk score could stratify LUAD survival (univariate: hazard ratio $\left(\text{HR}\right)=1.076$ , 95% confidence interval $\left(\text{CI}\right)=1.049$ –1.103, $P<0.001$ ; multivariate: $\text{HR}=1.066$ , 95% $\text{CI}=1.037$ –1.095, $P<0.001$ ) and LUSC survival (univariate: $\text{HR}=1.149$ , 95% $\text{CI}=1.066$ −1.239, $P<0.001$ ; multivariate: $\text{HR}=1.129$ , 95% $\text{CI}=1.038$ −1.228, $P=0.005$ ). One of the processes affected by differentially expressed genes in both LUAD and LUSC was the negative regulation of epithelial cell differentiation. Conclusions. Overall, novel LCSG-based gene signatures for LUAD and LUSC were constructed. These findings could expand the understanding of the impact of LCSG expression on cancer metastasis and prognosis.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict Overall Survival for Lung Adenocarcinoma: A Population-Based Study From the SEER Database and the Chinese Multicenter Lung Cancer Database

Background: Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the most common subtype of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of our study was to determine prognostic risk factors and establish a novel nomogram for lung adenocarcinoma patients. Methods: This retrospective cohort study is based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the Chinese multicenter lung cancer database. We selected 22,368 eligible LUAD patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 from the SEER database and screened them based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Subsequently, the patients were randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 15,657) and the testing cohort (n = 6711), with a ratio of 7:3. Meanwhile, 736 eligible LUAD patients from the Chinese multicenter lung cancer database diagnosed between 2011 and 2021 were considered as the validation cohort. Results: We established a nomogram based on each independent prognostic factor analysis for 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS) . For the training cohort, the area under the curves (AUCs) for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.806, 0.856, and 0.886. For the testing cohort, AUCs for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.804, 0.849, and 0.873. For the validation cohort, AUCs for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.86, 0.874, and 0.861. The calibration curves were observed to be closer to the ideal 45° dotted line with regard to 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in the training cohort, the testing cohort, and the validation cohort. The decision curve analysis (DCA) plots indicated that the established nomogram had greater net benefits in comparison with the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of lung adenocarcinoma patients. The Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that patients' survival in the low-risk group was better than that in the high-risk group (P < .001). Conclusion: The nomogram performed very well with excellent predictive ability in both the US population and the Chinese population.

A narrative review of prognosis prediction models for non-small cell lung cancer: what kind of predictors should be selected and how to improve models?

Objective

To discover potential predictors and explore how to build better models by summarizing the existing prognostic prediction models of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Background

Research on clinical prediction models of NSCLC has experienced explosive growth in recent years. As more predictors of prognosis are discovered, the choice of predictors to build models is particularly important, and in the background of more applications of next-generation sequencing technology, gene-related predictors are widely used. As it is more convenient to obtain samples and follow-up data, the prognostic model is preferred by researchers.

Methods

PubMed and the Cochrane Library were searched using the items “NSCLC”, “prognostic model”, “prognosis prediction”, and “survival prediction” from 1 January 1980 to 5 May 2021. Reference lists from articles were reviewed and relevant articles were identified.

Conclusions

The performance of gene-related models has not obviously improved. Relative to the innovation and diversity of predictors, it is more important to establish a highly stable model that is convenient for clinical application. Most of the prevalent models are highly biased and referring to PROBAST at the beginning of the study may be able to significantly control the bias. Existing models should be validated in a large external dataset to make a meaningful comparison.

The Positive Lymph Node Ratio Predicts Survival in T1-4N1-3M0 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Nomogram Using the SEER Database

Background: An increasing number of studies have shown that the positive lymph node ratio (pLNR) can be used to evaluate the prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. To determine the predictive value of the pLNR, we collected data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and performed a retrospective analysis. Methods: We collected survival and clinical information on patients with T_1-4N_1-3M₀ NSCLC diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 from the SEER database and screened them according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. X-tile software was used to obtain the best cut-off value for the pLNR. Then, we randomly divided patients into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Pearson's correlation coefficient, tolerance and the variance inflation factor (VIF) were used to detect collinearity between variables. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify significant prognostic factors, and nomograms was constructed to visualize the results. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive ability of the nomogram. We divided the patient scores into four groups according to the interquartile interval and constructed a survival curve using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: A total of 6,245 patients were initially enrolled. The best cut-off value for the pLNR was determined to be 0.55. The nomogram contained 13 prognostic factors, including the pLNR. The pLNR was identified as an independent prognostic factor for both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The C-index was 0.703 (95% CI, 0.695-0.711) in the training set and 0.711 (95% CI, 0.699-0.723) in the validation set. The calibration curves and DCA also indicated the good predictability of the nomogram. Risk stratification revealed a statistically significant difference among the four groups of patients divided according to quartiles of risk score. Conclusion: The nomogram containing the pLNR can accurately predict survival in patients with T_1-4N_1-3M₀ NSCLC.

Construction of a Nomogram After Using Propensity Score Matching to Reveal the Prognostic Benefit of Tumor Resection of Stage IV M1a Nonsmall Cell Lung Cancer Patients

The aim of this work was to determine whether tumor resection could improve the prognosis of M1a nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We obtained patient data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and used propensity score matching (PSM) to reduce the influence of confounding variables. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors, and the prediction results were visualized using the nomogram. A total of 772 patients with and without tumor resection were enrolled after PSM, and the nomogram combined with independent prognostic factors including age, sex, histological type, grade, T stage, N stage, chemotherapy, and surgery showed great prediction and discriminatory ability. Tumor resection is possibly a better choice for these patients.

Immune cell engineering: opportunities in lung cancer therapeutics

Engineered immune cells offer a prime therapeutic alternate for some aggressive and frequently occurring malignancies like lung cancer. These therapies were reported to result in tumor regression and overall improvement in patient survival. However, studies also suggest that the presence of cancer cell-induced immune-suppressive microenvironment, off-target toxicity, and difficulty in concurrent imaging are some prime impendent in the success of these approaches. The present article reviews the need and significance of the currently available immune cell-based strategies for lung cancer therapeutics. It also showcases the utility of incorporating nanoengineered strategies and details the available formulations of nanocarriers. In last, it briefly discussed the existing methods for nanoparticle fuctionalization and challenges in translating basic research to the clinics. Graphical Abstract.

Establishment and Validation of Nomogram Model Integrated With Inflammation-Based Factors for the Prognosis of Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

OBJECTS

Inflammation is one of the hallmarks of cancer. Tumor-associated inflammatory response plays a crucial role in enhancing tumorigenesis. This study aimed to establish an effective predictive nomogram based on inflammation factors in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 887 patients with advanced NSCLC between November 2004 and December 2015 and randomly divided them into primary (n = 520) and validation cohorts (n = 367). Cox regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors for building the nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined using a concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis and were compared to the TNM staging system.

RESULTS

The nomogram was established using independent risk factors (P < 0.05): age, TNM stage, C reaction protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR), and neutrophils (NEU). The C-index of the model for predicting OS had a superior discrimination power compared to that of the TNM staging system both in the primary [0.711 (95% CI: 0.675-0.747) vs 0.531 (95% CI: 0.488-0.574), P < 0.01] and validation cohorts [0.703, 95% CI: 0.671 -0.735 vs 0.582, 95% CI: 0.545-0.619, P < 0.01]. Decision curves also demonstrated that the nomogram had higher overall net benefits than that of the TNM staging system. Subgroup analyses revealed that the nomogram was a favorable prognostic parameter in advanced NSCLC (P < 0.05). The results were internally validated using the validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram with inflammatory factors resulted in an accurate prognostic prediction in patients with advanced NSCLC.

Non-SMC Condensin I Complex Subunit H (NCAPH) Is Associated with Lymphangiogenesis and Drug Resistance in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Background: Head and neck cancer, including oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), is the sixth most common malignancy. OSCC has strong invasive ability, and its malignant potential is closely associated with local expansion and lymph node metastasis. Furthermore, local or nodal recurrence worsens OSCC prognosis. In our previous cDNA microarray analysis, non-structural maintenance of chromosome (SMC) condensin I complex subunit H (NCAPH) was identified as an upregulated gene in recurrent OSCC. Although NCAPH has several functions in tumors, its role in OSCC is unknown. Methods: In this study, we examined NCAPH expression in OSCC and performed a functional analysis of human OSCC cells. Results: NCAPH expression was higher in OSCC than in normal oral mucosa. In immunohistochemistry using 142 OSCC specimens, the immunostaining of NCAPH was strongly associated with nodal metastasis and lymphatic infiltration. In multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model, NCAPH expression was an independent poor prognostic indicator for OSCC. Moreover, NCAPH promoted the migration and adhesion of endothelial cells to OSCC cells and promoted the resistance to platinum anticancer drugs. Conclusions: Our present findings suggest that NCAPH is a novel diagnostic and therapeutic target in OSCC.