Identification of predictive factors in hepatocellular carcinoma outcome: A longitudinal study

Development and evaluation of nomograms and risk stratification systems to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer, and patients with HCC have a poor prognosis and low survival rates. Establishing a prognostic nomogram is important for predicting the survival of patients with HCC, as it helps to improve the patient's prognosis. This study aimed to develop and evaluate nomograms and risk stratification to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in HCC patients. Data from 10,302 patients with initially diagnosed HCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Patients were randomly divided into the training and validation set. Kaplan-Meier survival, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of OS. Competing risk analysis, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of CSS. The validation of the nomograms was performed using the concordance index (C-index), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Net Reclassification Index (NRI), Discrimination Improvement (IDI), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). The results indicated that factors including age, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, surgery to lymph node (LN), Alpha-Fetal Protein (AFP), and tumor size were independent predictors of OS, whereas grade, T stage, surgery, AFP, tumor size, and distant lymph node metastasis were independent predictors of CSS. Based on these factors, predictive models were built and virtualized by nomograms. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.788, 0.792, and 0.790. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.803, 0.808, and 0.806. AIC, BIC, NRI, and IDI suggested that nomograms had an excellent predictive performance with no significant overfitting. The calibration curves showed good consistency of OS and CSS between the actual observation and nomograms prediction, and the DCA showed great clinical usefulness of the nomograms. The risk stratification of OS and CSS was built that could perfectly classify HCC patients into three risk groups. Our study developed nomograms and a corresponding risk stratification system predicting the OS and CSS of HCC patients. These tools can assist in patient counseling and guiding treatment decision making.

Racial disparities in clinical presentation, surgical procedures, and hospital outcomes among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in the United States (US), with substantial disparities observed in cancer incidence and survival among racial groups. This study provides analyses on race and ethnicity disparities for patients with HCC.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) between 2011 and 2016, utilizing the STROBE guidelines. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to examine the risk-adjusted associations between race and pre-treatment clinical presentation, surgical procedure allocation, and post-treatment hospital outcomes. All clinical parameters were identified using ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM diagnosis and procedure codes.

RESULTS

83,876 weighted HCC hospitalizations were reported during the study period. Patient demographics were divided according to NIS racial/ethnic categorization, which includes Caucasian (57.3%), African American (16.9%), Hispanic (15.7%), Asian or Pacific Islanders (9.3%), and Native American (0.8%). Association between greater odds of hospitalization and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index > 4 was significantly higher among Native Americans (aOR=1.79; 95% CI: 1.23-2.73), African Americans (aOR=1.24; 95% CI: 1.12-1.38), and Hispanics (aOR=1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.24). Risk-adjusted association between race and receipt of surgical procedures demonstrated that the odds of having surgery was significantly lower for African Americans (aOR=0.64; 95% CI: 0.55-0.73) and Hispanics (aOR=0.70; 95% CI: 0.59-0.82), while significantly higher for Asians/Pacific Islanders (aOR=1.36; 95% CI: 1.28-1.63). Post-operative complications were significantly lower for African Americans (aOR=0.68; 95% CI: 0.55-0.86) while the odds of in-hospital mortality were significantly higher for African Americans (aOR=1.28; 95% CI: 1.11-1.49) and Asians/Pacific Islanders (aOR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.13-1.62).

CONCLUSIONS

After controlling for potential confounders, there were significant racial disparities in pre-treatment presentations, surgical procedure allocations, and post-treatment outcomes among patients with HCC. Further studies are needed to determine the underlying factors for these disparities to develop targeted interventions to reduce these disparities of care.

Association between socioeconomic status and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still unclear, and there is no nomogram integrated SES and clinicopathological factors to predict the prognosis of HCC. This research aims to confirm the effects of SES on predicting patients' survival and to establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of HCC.

METHODS

The data of HCC patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results (SEER) database from 2011 to 2015. SES (age at diagnosis, race and sex, median family income, education level, insurance status, marital status, residence, cost of living index, poverty rate) and clinicopathological factors were included in univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Nomograms for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were established and evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the calibration plot, the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the net reclassification improvement (NRI).

RESULTS

A total of 33,670 diagnosed HCC patients were involved, and nomograms consisting of 19 variables were established. The C-indexes of the nomograms are higher than TNM staging system, which predicts the CSS (0.789 vs. 0.692, p < 0.01) and OS (0.777 vs. 0.675, p < 0.01). The ROC curve, calibration diagram, IDI, and NRI showed the improved prognostic value in 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates.

CONCLUSION

SES plays an important role in the prognosis of HCC patients. Therefore, policymakers can make more precise and socially approved policies to improve HCC patients' CSS and OS.

Epidemiologic, humanistic and economic burden of hepatocellular carcinoma in the USA: a systematic literature review

AIM

To describe the epidemiologic, humanistic and economic burdens of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the USA.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Studies describing the epidemiology and economic burden from national cohorts, any economic models, or any humanistic burden studies published 2008-2018 were systematically searched.

RESULTS

HCC incidence was 9.5 per 100,000 person-years in most recent data, but was ∼100-times higher among patients with hepatitis/cirrhosis. Approximately a third of patients were diagnosed with advanced disease. Patients with HCC experienced poor quality of life. Direct costs were substantial and varied based on underlying demographics, disease stage and treatment received. Between 25-77% of patients did not receive surgical, locoregional or systemic treatment.

CONCLUSION

Better treatments are needed to extend survival and improve quality of life for patients with HCC.