Remission in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis: Predicting Treatment Response

Towards Personalized Medicine in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, incurable, multisystem, inflammatory disease characterized by synovitis and extra-articular features. Although several advanced therapies targeting inflammatory mechanisms underlying the disease are available, no advanced therapy is universally effective. Therefore, a ceiling of treatment response is currently accepted where no advanced therapy is superior to another. The current challenge for medical research is the discovery and integration of predictive markers of drug response that can be used to personalize medicine so that the patient is started on "the right drug at the right time". This review article summarizes our current understanding of predicting response to anti-rheumatic drugs in RA, obstacles impeding the development of personalized medicine approaches and future research priorities to overcome these barriers.

Baseline predictors of different types of treatment success in rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE

To perform a comprehensive analysis on predictors of achieving disease activity outcomes by change, response and state measures.

METHODS

We used data from three rheumatoid arthritis (RA) trials (one for main analysis, two for validation) to analyse the effect of patient and disease characteristics, core set measure and composite indices on the achievement of different outcomes: response outcomes (% of patients achieving a relative response margin); state outcomes (remission or low disease activity, LDA) and change outcomes (numerical change on metric scales).

RESULTS

We included patients from the ASPIRE trial (for analysis) and from the ATTRACT and GO-BEFORE trials (for validation). While lower disease activity components at baseline-except acute phase reactants-were associated with achievement of state outcomes (such as LDA by the Simplified Disease Activity Index, SDAI), higher baseline values were associated with change outcomes (such as SDAI absolute change). A multivariate analysis of the identified predictors of state outcomes identified best prediction by a combination of shorter disease duration, male gender and lower disease activity. For prediction of response, no consistently significant predictors were found, again, with exception of C reactive protein, for which higher levels at baseline were associated with better responses.

CONCLUSION

Prediction of treatment success is limited in RA. Particularly in early RA, prediction of state targets can be achieved by lower baseline levels of diseases activity. Gender and disease duration may improve the predictability of state targets. In clinical trials, included populations and choice of outcomes can be coordinated to maximise efficiency from these studies.

Current smoking predicts inadequate response to methotrexate monotherapy in rheumatoid arthritis patients naïve to DMARDs: Results from a retrospective cohort study

ABSTRACT

Identifying predictors of inadequate response to methotrexate (MTX) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is key to move from a "trial and error" to a "personalized medicine" treatment approach where patients less likely to adequately respond to MTX monotherapy could start combination therapy at an earlier stage. This study aimed to identify potential predictors of inadequate response to MTX in RA patients naïve to disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs.Data from a real-life cohort of newly diagnosed RA patients starting MTX (baseline, T0) as first-line therapy were analyzed. Outcomes, assessed after 6 months (T1), were defined as failure to achieve a disease activity score 28 (DAS28) low disease activity (LDA) or a good/moderate response to MTX, according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria. Logistic regression was used to assess the associations between baseline variables and the study outcomes.Overall, 294 patients (60.5% females, median age 54.5 years) with a median disease duration of 7.9 months were recruited. At T1, 47.3% of subjects failed to achieve LDA, and 29.3% did not have any EULAR-response. In multivariate analysis, significant associations were observed between no LDA and current smoking (adjusted odds ratio [adjOR] 1.79, P = .037), female gender (adjOR 1.68, P = .048), and higher DAS28 (adjOR 1.31, P = .013); and between no EULAR-response and current smoking (adjOR: 2.04, P = .019), age (adjOR: 0.72 per 10-years increases, P = .001), and higher erythrocyte sedimentation rate (adjOR: 0.49; P = .020). By contrast, there were no associations between past smoker status and study outcomes.In summary, in our real-life cohort of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug naïve RA patients, current smoking habit independently predicts inadequate response to MTX. This, together with other independent predictors of response to treatment identified in our study, might assist with personalized monitoring in RA patients. Further studies are required to investigate whether smoking quitting strategies enhance the therapeutic response to MTX.

Factors predicting addition of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs after initial methotrexate monotherapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

INTRODUCTION

We investigated factors predicting the addition of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) after an initial methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients to support an early decision on the DMARDs addition.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 311 patients who were diagnosed with RA and started on MTX monotherapy at Showa University Hospital, Japan. The outcome was addition of DMARDs after an initial MTX monotherapy at 6 months. Baseline patient characteristics were compared between the DMARDs addition and MTX monotherapy continuation groups, and significant independent predictive factors for the addition of DMARDs were selected using multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The median age of patients was 62 years (range 24-90), 170 patients (73%) were women, the median swollen 28-joint count (SJC28) was 3 (0-28), and the median tender 28-joint count (TJC28) was 5 (0-28). DMARDs were added in 65 (27.9%) patients. In the univariate analysis, higher TJC28 and SJC28, concomitant use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and intra-articular glucocorticoid (GC) injection history were significantly associated with the DMARDs addition. In the multivariate analysis, by adding covariates to the variables identified in the univariate analysis, SJC28 (odds ratio [OR] 1.390 per 5 joints increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.036-1.866) and intra-articular GC injection history (OR 3.678; 95% CI, 1.170-11.557) were independent predictors of DMARDs addition.

CONCLUSION

A higher SJC28 and intra-articular GC injection history may be useful predictors of DMARDs addition after the initial MTX monotherapy. We expect that using these predictors will enable an earlier shift to a more aggressive treatment. Key Points ・We performed a retrospective cohort study with the addition of DMARDs as the outcome in patients with RA who were started on MTX monotherapy. ・A higher SJC28 (OR 1.390; 95% CI, 1.036-1.866) and an intra-articular GC injection history (OR 3.678; 95% CI, 1.170-11.557) may be useful predictors for the addition of DMARDs of initiating MTX monotherapy at 6 months. ・The use of such indicators may support an early decision on the addition of DMARDs after the initial MTX monotherapy.

Impact of the combined presence of erosions and ACPA on rheumatoid arthritis disease activity over time: results from the METEOR registry

Objective

To investigate associations between baseline presence of erosions and/or anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) on functional ability, disease activity and treatment survival over time.

Methods

Real life data from newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis patients were identified in the international METEOR registry. Patients were grouped according to presence/absence of ACPA and/or erosions at baseline. Associations between the presence of ACPA and/or erosions (four groups) with the change of Disease Activity Score (DAS) and Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) over time were assessed using linear mixed models during maximum 6 or maximum 12 months from baseline. Treatment survival was assessed using multiple failure-times Cox regression.

Results

Data were included from 701 ACPA‒/erosions‒, 334 ACPA‒/erosions+, 1585 ACPA+/erosions‒ and 1993 ACPA+/erosions+ patients. We found statistically significant differences in DAS and HAQ change over time between the four groups, both after maximum follow-up durations of 6 and of 12 months, but after stratification differences proved small and not clinically meaningful. Patients in the ACPA‒/erosions‒ group were less likely to switch treatment compared with the ACPA+/erosions‒ reference group (p<0.001). The other two ACPA/erosions groups did not differ from the reference group.

Conclusions

In this analysis of worldwide real life data, we found statistically significant, but clinically irrelevant differences in treatment response to initial disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug therapies as measured by DAS and HAQ in ACPA‒/erosions‒, ACPA‒/erosions+, ACPA+/erosions‒ and ACPA+/erosions+ rheumatoid arthritis patients. However, after maximum follow-up durations of 6 and 12 months all groups had a similar response to initial treatment, but with a lower likelihood to switch treatment for ACPA‒/erosions‒ patients during the first year of follow-up.

Clinical predictors of remission and low disease activity in Latin American early rheumatoid arthritis: data from the GLADAR cohort

OBJECTIVES

To identify baseline predictors of remission and low disease activity (LDA) in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) from the GLADAR (Grupo Latino Americano De estudio de la Artritis Reumatoide) cohort.

METHODS

Patients with 1- and 2-year follow-up visits were included. Remission and LDA were defined by DAS28-ESR (< 2.6 and ≤ 3.2, respectively). Baseline predictors examined were gender, ethnicity, age at diagnosis, socioeconomic status, symptoms' duration, DMARDs, RF, thrombocytosis, anemia, morning stiffness, DAS28-ESR (and its components), HAQ-DI, DMARDs and corticosteroid use, and Sharp-VDH score. Multivariable binary logistic regression models (excluding DAS28-ESR components to avoid over adjustment) were derived using a backward selection method (α-level set at 0.05).

RESULTS

Four hundred ninety-eight patients were included. Remission and LDA/remission were met by 19.3% and 32.5% at the 1-year visit, respectively. For the 280 patients followed for 2 years, these outcomes were met by 24.3% and 38.9%, respectively. Predictors of remission at 1 year were a lower DAS28-ESR (OR 1.17; CI 1.07-1.27; p = 0.001) and HAQ-DI (OR 1.48; CI 1.04-2.10; p = 0.028). At 2 years, only DAS28-ESR (OR 1.40; CI 1.17-1.6; p < 0.001) was a predictor. Predictors of LDA/remission at 1 year were DAS28-ESR (OR 1.42; CI 1.26-1.61; p < 0.001), non-use of corticosteroid (OR 1.74; CI 1.11-2.44; p = 0.008), and male gender (OR 1.77; CI 1.2-2.63; p = 0.036). A lower baseline DAS28-ESR (OR 1.45; CI 1.23-1.70; p < 0.001) was the only predictor of LDA/remission at 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A lower disease activity consistently predicted remission and LDA/remission at 1 and 2 years of follow-up in early RA patients from the GLADAR cohort. Key Points • In patients with early RA, a lower disease activity at first visit is a strong clinical predictor of achieving remission and LDA subsequently. • Other clinical predictors of remission and LDA to keep in mind in these patients are male gender, non-use of corticosteroids and low disability at baseline. • Not using corticosteroids at first visit is associated with a lower disease activity and predicts LDA/remission at 1 year in these patients.

Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, debilitating disease associated with reduced quality of life and substantial costs. It is unclear which tests and assessment tools allow the best assessment of prognosis in people with early RA and whether or not variables predict the response of patients to different drug treatments.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review evidence on the use of selected tests and assessment tools in patients with early RA (1) in the evaluation of a prognosis (review 1) and (2) as predictive markers of treatment response (review 2).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science Conference Proceedings; searched to September 2016), registers, key websites, hand-searching of reference lists of included studies and key systematic reviews and contact with experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Review 1 - primary studies on the development, external validation and impact of clinical prediction models for selected outcomes in adult early RA patients. Review 2 - primary studies on the interaction between selected baseline covariates and treatment (conventional and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs) on salient outcomes in adult early RA patients.

RESULTS

Review 1 - 22 model development studies and one combined model development/external validation study reporting 39 clinical prediction models were included. Five external validation studies evaluating eight clinical prediction models for radiographic joint damage were also included. c-statistics from internal validation ranged from 0.63 to 0.87 for radiographic progression (different definitions, six studies) and 0.78 to 0.82 for the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Predictive performance in external validations varied considerably. Three models [(1) Active controlled Study of Patients receiving Infliximab for the treatment of Rheumatoid arthritis of Early onset (ASPIRE) C-reactive protein (ASPIRE CRP), (2) ASPIRE erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ASPIRE ESR) and (3) Behandelings Strategie (BeSt)] were externally validated using the same outcome definition in more than one population. Results of the random-effects meta-analysis suggested substantial uncertainty in the expected predictive performance of models in a new sample of patients. Review 2 - 12 studies were identified. Covariates examined included anti-citrullinated protein/peptide anti-body (ACPA) status, smoking status, erosions, rheumatoid factor status, C-reactive protein level, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, swollen joint count (SJC), body mass index and vascularity of synovium on power Doppler ultrasound (PDUS). Outcomes examined included erosions/radiographic progression, disease activity, physical function and Disease Activity Score-28 remission. There was statistical evidence to suggest that ACPA status, SJC and PDUS status at baseline may be treatment effect modifiers, but not necessarily that they are prognostic of response for all treatments. Most of the results were subject to considerable uncertainty and were not statistically significant.

LIMITATIONS

The meta-analysis in review 1 was limited by the availability of only a small number of external validation studies. Studies rarely investigated the interaction between predictors and treatment.

SUGGESTED RESEARCH PRIORITIES

Collaborative research (including the use of individual participant data) is needed to further develop and externally validate the clinical prediction models. The clinical prediction models should be validated with respect to individual treatments. Future assessments of treatment by covariate interactions should follow good statistical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Review 1 - uncertainty remains over the optimal prediction model(s) for use in clinical practice. Review 2 - in general, there was insufficient evidence that the effect of treatment depended on baseline characteristics.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042402.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Serum Biomarkers for Prediction of Response to Methotrexate Monotherapy in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the SWEFOT Trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate baseline levels of 12 serum biomarkers that constitute a multibiomarker disease activity test, as predictors of response to methotrexate (MTX) in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (eRA).

METHODS

In 298 patients from the Swedish Pharmacotherapy (SWEFOT) clinical trial, baseline serum levels of 12 proteins were analyzed for association with disease activity based on the 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28) after 3 months of MTX monotherapy using uni-/multivariate logistic regression. Primary outcome was low disease activity (LDA; DAS28 ≤ 3.2).

RESULTS

Of 298 patients, 104 achieved LDA after 3 months on MTX. Four of the 12 biomarkers [C-reactive protein (CRP), leptin, tumor necrosis factor receptor I (TNF-RI), and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1)] significantly predicted LDA based on stepwise logistic regression analysis. Dichotomization of patients using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis-based cutoffs for these biomarkers showed significantly higher proportions with LDA among patients with lower versus higher levels of CRP or leptin (40% vs 23%, p = 0.004, and 40% vs 25%, p = 0.011, respectively), as well as among those with higher versus lower levels of TNF-RI or VCAM-1 (43% vs 27%, p = 0.004, and 41% vs 25%, p = 0.004, respectively). Combined score based on these biomarkers, adjusted for known predictors of LDA (smoking, sex, and age), associated with decreased chance of LDA (adjusted OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.32-0.62).

CONCLUSION

Low baseline levels of CRP and leptin, and high baseline levels of TNF-RI and VCAM-1 were associated with LDA after 3 months of MTX therapy in patients with eRA. Combination of these 4 biomarkers increased accuracy of prediction. [Trial registration number: NCT00764725].

Prediction of primary non-response to methotrexate therapy using demographic, clinical and psychosocial variables: results from the UK Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study (RAMS)

Background

Methotrexate (MTX) remains the disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug of first choice in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) but response varies. Predicting non-response to MTX could enable earlier access to alternative or additional medications and control of disease progression. We aimed to identify baseline predictors of non-response to MTX and combine these into a prediction algorithm.

Methods

This study included patients recruited to the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study (RAMS), a UK multi-centre prospective observational study of patients with RA or undifferentiated polyarthritis, commencing MTX for the first time. Non-response to MTX at 6 months was defined as “no response” using the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria, discontinuation of MTX due to inefficacy or starting biologic therapy. The association of baseline demographic, clinical and psychosocial predictors with non-response was assessed using logistic regression. Predictive performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots.

Results

Of 1050 patients, 449 (43%) were classified as non-responders. Independent multivariable predictors of MTX non-response (OR (95% CI)) were rheumatoid factor (RF) negativity (0.62 (0.45, 0.86) for RF positivity versus negativity), higher Health Assessment Questionnaire score (1.64 (1.25, 2.15)), higher tender joint count (1.06 (1.02, 1.10)), lower Disease Activity score in 28 joints (0.29 (0.23, 0.39)) and higher Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale anxiety score (1.07 (1.03, 1.12)). The optimism-corrected AUC was 0.74.

Conclusions

This is the first model for MTX non-response to be developed in a large contemporary study of patients commencing MTX in which demographic, clinical and psychosocial predictors were considered. Patient anxiety was a predictor of non-response and could be addressed at treatment commencement.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13075-018-1645-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effects of psychosocial factors on monitoring treatment effect in newly diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis patients over time: response data from the tREACH study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether, apart from effects of patient- and disease-related factors, psychosocial factors have additional effects on disease activity; and which factors are most influential during the first year of treatment in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHOD

The study assessed 15 month follow-up data from patients in tREACH, a randomized clinical trial comparing initial triple disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug therapy to methotrexate monotherapy, with glucocorticoid bridging in both groups. Patients were evaluated every 3 months and treated to target. Associations between Disease Activity Score (DAS) at 3, 9, and 15 months and psychosocial factors (anxiety, depression, fatigue, and coping with pain) at the previous visit were assessed by multivariable linear regression correcting for demographic, clinical, and treatment-related factors.

RESULTS

At 3, 9, and 15 months of follow-up, 265, 251, and 162 patients, respectively, were available for analysis. Baseline anxiety and coping with pain were associated with DAS at 3 months; coping with pain at 6 months was associated with DAS at 9 months, and fatigue at 12 months with DAS at 15 months. Psychosocial factors were moderately correlated. Effects on DAS were mainly due to tender joint count and global health.

CONCLUSION

Psychosocial factors have additional effects on DAS throughout the first year of treatment in early RA. A change was observed from anxiety and coping with pain at baseline being associated with subsequent DAS towards fatigue being associated with subsequent DAS at 12 months. Owing to the explorative nature of this study, more research is needed to confirm this pattern.

Global assessments of disease activity are age-dependent determinant factors of clinical remission in rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study is to assess the factors associated with clinical remission of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in daily clinical practice.

METHODS

This analysis was based on the data of 304 RA patients in our center between May 2014 and March 2015. The following information was included: tender, swollen, and symptomatic joint counts, patient's and physician's global assessments, functional disability, laboratory and radiographic data, and RA treatments received.

RESULTS

The patients were predominantly female (77.6%), with a median age of 71 years and a median disease duration of 5.8 years. Clinical remission rate, determined using the simplified disease activity index (SDAI), was 49.7%. Patient's and physician's global assessments (/10cm) showed a higher score among patients who did not achieve SDAI remission than among those who did (median: 3.2 versus 0.3, p < 0.0001; and median: 1.8 versus 0.3, p < 0.0001, respectively). The contribution of serum C-reactive protein values (mg/dL) to SDAI was limited (median: 0.19 versus 0.06; p < 0.0001), as well as tender or swollen joint counts (median = 0 or 1). On multivariate analysis of factors not directly related to the disease activity, age was an independent risk factor for non-remission, and global assessment scores by patients and physicians showed an age-dependent increase, while counts of tender, swollen and symptomatic joints were comparable among elderly and non-elderly patients.

CONCLUSION

Global assessment of disease activity was age-dependent and independent of joint counts, and it provides a critical determinant of clinical non-remission.

Longitudinal study of clinical prognostic factors in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis: the PREDICT study

AIM

To assess the association between baseline clinical prognostic factors and subsequent Disease Activity Score of 28 joints (DAS28) remission in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

Data were collected using point of care clinical software from participating rheumatology centres. Patients aged 18 years or over whose date of clinical onset of RA was within the previous 12-24 months, who had at least 6 months of follow-up data and a DAS28-ESR (erythrocyte sedimentation rate) score recorded between 12 and 24 months from first being seen for RA were included. Data collected included baseline demographics, mode of disease onset, pattern of joint involvement at onset, smoking status, DAS28, rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA), time from symptom onset to presentation and disease activity at baseline. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression of DAS28-ESR remission between 12 and 24 months after first assessment were performed.

RESULTS

Data from 1017 patients were analyzed: 70% female; mean age 60 years (SD: 14.7); 70% RF-positive, 58% ACPA-positive. The strongest age and sex adjusted baseline predictors of DAS28-ESR remission at 12-24 months were remission at baseline (odds ratio [OR]: 4.49, 95% CI: 2.17-9.29, P < 0.001), being male (OR: 2.42, 95% CI: 1.46-4.01, P < 0.001), abstaining from alcohol (P < 0.001) and being lower weight (OR: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.97-1.00, P = 0.015). There was no statistically significant association between joint onset patterns, mode of onset, RF, ACPA or smoking status.

CONCLUSION

In this observational study, patients with early RA at risk of not achieving remission include those with high disease activity at baseline, women, those who drink alcohol and those with higher body weight.

DNA methylation at diagnosis is associated with response to disease-modifying drugs in early rheumatoid arthritis

AIM

A proof-of-concept study to explore whether DNA methylation at first diagnosis is associated with response to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

PATIENTS & METHODS

DNA methylation was quantified in T-lymphocytes from 46 treatment-naive patients using HumanMethylation450 BeadChips. Treatment response was determined in 6 months using the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria.

RESULTS

Initial filtering identified 21 cytosine-phosphate-guanines (CpGs) that were differentially methylated between responders and nonresponders. After conservative adjustment for multiple testing, six sites remained statistically significant, of which four showed high sensitivity and/or specificity (≥75%) for response to treatment. Moreover, methylation at two sites in combination was the strongest factor associated with response (80.0% sensitivity, 90.9% specificity, AUC 0.85).

CONCLUSION

DNA methylation at diagnosis is associated with disease-modifying antirheumatic drug treatment response in early RA.

Prediction of Remission in a French Early Arthritis Cohort by RAPID3 and other Core Data Set Measures, but Not by the Absence of Rheumatoid Factor, Anticitrullinated Protein Antibodies, or Radiographic Erosions

Objective.

To identify baseline variables that predict remission according to different criteria in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a comprehensive French ESPOIR early arthritis database.

Methods.

Individual variables and indices at baseline were analyzed in 664 patients for capacity to predict remission either 6 or 12 months later according to 4 criteria that require a formal joint count: the American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism Boolean criteria, the Simplified Disease Activity Index, the Clinical Disease Activity Index, and the 28-joint Disease Activity Score; and 2 remission criteria that do not require a formal joint count: the Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3) and the RAPID3 ≤ 3 + swollen joint, using univariate and multivariate logistic regressions.

Results.

Remission was predicted significantly 6 and/or 12 months later in 26.8%–51.4% of patients, according to all 6 criteria by younger age, low index scores, and better status for the 6/7 clinical RA core dataset measures: tender joint count, swollen joint count (SJC), physician’s global estimate, patient self-report Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) physical function, pain, and patient’s global estimate. Remission was not predicted by the absence of “poor prognosis RA” indicators, rheumatoid factor (RF), anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA), or radiographic erosions. In multivariate regressions that included only 3 variables, low HAQ function predicted remission by all criteria as effectively as SJC, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, or C-reactive protein.

Conclusion.

Younger age and 6 core dataset clinical measures, but not the absence of traditional “poor prognosis RA” indicators, RF, ACPA, or radiographic erosions, predicted remission according to 6 criteria, including 2 without a formal joint count.

Window of opportunity to achieve major outcomes in early rheumatoid arthritis patients: how persistence with therapy matters

Introduction

Benefits of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARD) in early rheumatoid arthritis patients (ERAP) will be achieved if patients follow prescribed treatment. Objective was to investigate whether timing of first non-persistence period and/or duration of persistence during the first 4 years of follow-up predicted disease outcomes at the 5^th year in a cohort of ERAP, initiated in 2004.

Patients and Methods

Up to February 2015, charts of 107 ERAP with at least 5 years of follow-up and prospective 6-month assessments of disease activity, disability and persistence were reviewed. Non-persistence was defined as omission of DMARD and/or corticosteroids for at least 7 consecutive days; regarding methotrexate, one weekly missing dose was considered non-persistence. Persistence was recorded through an interview (up to 2008) and thereafter through a questionnaire; persistence duration was recorded in months of continuous medicationtaking. At the 5^th year, disease activity was defined according to Disease Activity Score (DAS)28, and disability according to Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). Descriptive statistics and linear and Cox regression analyses were used.

Results

At study entry, patients were more frequently middle-aged (39.1 ± 13.3 years) and female (88.8 %), as well as more likely to have high disease activity and disability. Over the first 4 years of follow-up, 54.2 % of the patients had indications for oral corticosteroids and all traditional DMARDs. Almost 70 % had at least one period of non-persistence, and their follow-up (median, 25th–75th interquartile range) to first non-persistence period was 13 months (1–31). Persistence duration during the first 4 years predicted subsequent DAS28 (in addition to gender and baseline DAS28) and HAQ (in addition to age). During the 5^th year, 68 patients (56 women) achieved sustained remission (DAS28 < 2.6). In female population (n = 95), baseline DAS28 (odds ratio [OR], 0.65; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.50–0.83; p = 0.001) and persistence duration (OR, 1.04; 95 % CI, 1–1.08; p = 0.05) were predictors. Also, 84 patients achieved sustained function (HAQ <0.21), and baseline DAS28 and age were the only predictors. Timing of first non-persistence period did not impact outcomes.

Conclusions

Persistence duration with DMARDs within the first 4 years of RA predicted subsequent favorable outcomes in ERAP; additional predictors were younger age, male gender and lower disease activity at diagnosis.

Predictors of satisfactory improvements in pain for patients with early rheumatoid arthritis in a treat-to-target study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify baseline predictors of achieving patient-perceived satisfactory improvement (PPSI) in pain after 6 months of treat to target in patients with early RA.

METHODS

Baseline and 6 month data were used from patients included in the Dutch Rheumatoid Arthritis Monitoring remission induction cohort study. Simple and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify significant predictors of achieving an absolute improvement of 30 mm or a relative improvement of 50% on a visual analogue scale for pain.

RESULTS

At 6 months, 125 of 209 patients (59.8%) achieved an absolute PPSI and 130 patients (62.2%) achieved a relative PPSI in pain. Controlling for baseline pain, having symmetrical arthritis was the strongest independent predictor of achieving an absolute [odds ratio (OR) 3.17, P = 0.03] or relative (OR 3.44, P = 0.01) PPSI. Additionally, anti-CCP positivity (OR 2.04, P = 0.04) and having ≤12 tender joints (OR 0.29, P = 0.01) were predictive of achieving a relative PPSI. The total explained variance of baseline predictors was 30% for absolute and 18% for relative improvements, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Symmetrical joint involvement, anti-CCP positivity and fewer tender joints at baseline are prognostic signs for achieving satisfactory improvement in pain after 6 months of treat to target in patients with early RA.

Earlier time to remission predicts sustained clinical remission in early rheumatoid arthritis--results from the Canadian Early Arthritis Cohort (CATCH)

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prevalence and predictive factors of sustained remission in an early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) population. Predictive factors of sustained remission in ERA are unknown. We hypothesized that a short time to remission is an important predictor of sustained clinical remission.

METHODS

Patients in the Canadian Early Arthritis Cohort were included. Remission was defined by Boolean-based American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism clinical trial and clinical practice definitions and Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI). Logistic regression analysis identified predictors of sustained remission and influence of time to remission.

RESULTS

Of 1840 patients, 633 (34%) achieved clinical trial remission, 759 (41%) clinical practice remission, and 727 (39%) SDAI remission. Over half of those meeting remission criteria achieved sustained remission based on clinical trial (55%), clinical practice (60%), and/or SDAI (58%). Corticosteroid use and lack of initial disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) were associated with decreased probability of sustained remission, while initial combination DMARD increased this probability. Female sex, greater pain, and longer time to first remission made sustained remission less likely.

CONCLUSION

Female sex, greater pain, and lack of initial DMARD therapy reduced the probability of sustained remission. A shorter time to remission is related to sustainability and supports striving for early remission.

Clinical and Serological Predictors of Remission in Rheumatoid Arthritis Are Dependent on Treatment Regimen

Objective.

Early intensive treatment is now the cornerstone for the management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In the era of personalized medicine, when treatment is becoming more individualized, it is unclear from the current literature whether all patients with RA benefit equally from such intensive therapies. We investigated the benefit of different treatment regimens on remission rates when stratified to clinical and serological factors.

Methods.

The Combination Anti-rheumatic Drugs in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (CARDERA) trial recruited patients with RA of less than 2 years’ duration who had active disease. The trial compared 4 treatment regimens: methotrexate monotherapy, 2 different double therapy regimens (methotrexate and cyclosporine or methotrexate and prednisolone) and 3-drug therapy. Clinical predictors included age, male sex, and tender joint count (TJC) and serological biomarkers included rheumatoid factor (RF) and anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA).

Results.

Patients who were male, over 50 years, had ≥ 6 TJC, were RF-IgM–positive, or ACPA-positive were more likely to achieve remission at 24 months using 3-drug therapy compared to monotherapy (OR 2.99, 4.95, 2.71, 2.54, and 3.52, respectively). There were no differences in response to monotherapy and 3-drug therapy if patients were female, under 50 years, had < 6 TJC, or were seronegative.

Conclusion.

Early intensive regimens have become the gold standard in the treatment of early RA. Our study suggests that this intensive approach is only superior to monotherapy in certain subsets of patients. Although these are unlikely to be the only predictors of treatment response, our study brings us a step closer to achieving personalized medicine in RA.

Pharmacogenetics and pharmacogenomics for rheumatoid arthritis responsiveness to methotrexate treatment: the 2013 update

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a complex, systemic autoimmune disease characterized by chronic inflammation of multiple peripheral joints, which leads to serious destruction of cartilage and bone, progressive deformity and severe disability. Methotrexate (MTX) is one of the first-line drugs commonly used in RA therapy owing to its excellent long-term efficacy and cheapness. However, the efficacy and toxicity of MTX treatment have significant interpatient variability. Genetic factors contribute to this variability. In this review, we have summarized and updated the progress of RA response to MTX treatment since 2009 by focusing on the fields of pharmacogenetics and pharmacogenomics. Identification of genetic factors involved in MTX treatment response will increase the understanding of RA pathology and the development of new personalized treatments.

ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative rheumatoid arthritis differ in their requirements for combination DMARDs and corticosteroids: secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

UK guidelines recommend that all early active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients are offered combination disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and short-term corticosteroids. Anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative RA may differ in their treatment responses. We used data from a randomized controlled trial - the Combination Anti-Rheumatic Drugs in Early RA (CARDERA) trial - to examine whether responses to intensive combination treatments in early RA differ by ACPA status.

METHODS

The CARDERA trial randomized 467 early active RA patients to receive: (1) methotrexate, (2) methotrexate/ciclosporin, (3) methotrexate/prednisolone or (4) methotrexate/ciclosporin/prednisolone in a factorial-design. Patients were assessed every six months for two years. In this analysis we evaluated 431 patients with available ACPA status. To minimize multiple testing we used a mixed-effects repeated measures ANOVA model to test for an interaction between ACPA and treatment on mean changes from baseline for each outcome (Larsen, disease activity scores on a 28-joint count (DAS28), Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), EuroQol, SF-36 physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores). When a significant interaction was present, mean changes in outcomes were compared by treatment group at each time point using t-tests stratified by ACPA status. Odds ratios (ORs) for the onset of new erosions with treatment were calculated stratified by ACPA.

RESULTS

ACPA status influenced the need for combination treatments to reduce radiological progression. ACPA-positive patients had significant reductions in Larsen score progression with all treatments. ACPA-positive patients receiving triple therapy had the greatest benefits: two-year mean Larsen score increases comprised 3.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27 to 5.05) with triple therapy and 9.58 (95% CI 6.76 to 12.39) with monotherapy; OR for new erosions with triple therapy versus monotherapy was 0.32 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.72; P = 0.003). ACPA-negative patients had minimal radiological progression irrespective of treatment. Corticosteroid's impact on improving DAS28/PCS scores was confined to ACPA-positive RA.

CONCLUSIONS

ACPA status influences the need for combination DMARDs and high-dose tapering corticosteroids in early RA. In CARDERA, combination therapy was only required to prevent radiological progression in ACPA-positive patients; corticosteroids only provided significant disease activity and physical health improvements in ACPA-positive disease. This suggests ACPA is an important biomarker for guiding treatment decisions in early RA.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN32484878.

Comparison of remission criteria in a tumour necrosis factor inhibitor treated rheumatoid arthritis longitudinal cohort: patient global health is a confounder

INTRODUCTION

Our objectives were to assess the frequency and sustainability of American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) and Disease Activity Score (DAS)28(4v)-C-reactive protein (CRP) remission 12 months after the initiation of tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapy in a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cohort.

METHODS

Data were collected of 273 biologic naive RA patients at baseline, then 3, 6 and 12 months post-TNFi therapy. Remission status was calculated using DAS28(4v)-CRP <2.6 and ACR/EULAR Boolean criteria. Response was scored using EULAR criteria.

RESULTS

Mean (range) patient age was 59.9 (7.2-85.4) years with disease duration of 13.4 (1.0-52.0) years. Responder status maintained from 3-12 months (86%, 82.4%), laboratory/clinical parameters (erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), CRP, patient global health (PGH), DAS28(4v)-CRP) also showed sustained improvement (P < 0.05). DAS28 remission was reached by 102 subjects at 1 year, 27 patients were in Boolean remission, but 75 missed it from the DAS28 remission group. Patients in remission were younger (P = 0.041) with lower baseline tender joint count (TJC)28 and PGH than those not in remission (P = 0.001, P = 0.047). DAS28 remission patients were older (P = 0.026) with higher 12 months PGH and subsequently higher DAS28 than Boolean remission patients (P < 0.0001). Patients not achieving Boolean remission due to missing one subcriteria most frequently missed PGH ≤1 criteria (79.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Only 10% of this TNFi treated cohort achieved remission according to the new ACR/EULAR criteria, which requires lower disease activity. More stringent criteria may ensure further resolution of disease activity and better longterm radiographic outcome, which supports earlier intervention with biologic therapy in RA.

Rheumatoid factor positivity is associated with increased joint destruction and upregulation of matrix metalloproteinase 9 and cathepsin k gene expression in the peripheral blood in rheumatoid arthritic patients treated with methotrexate

We evaluated changes in gene expression of mTOR, p21, caspase-3, ULK1, TNFα, matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-9, and cathepsin K in the whole blood of rheumatoid arthritic (RA) patients treated with methotrexate (MTX) in relation to their rheumatoid factor status, clinical, immunological, and radiological parameters, and therapeutic response after a 24-month follow-up. The study group consisted of 35 control subjects and 33 RA patients without previous history of MTX treatment. Gene expression was measured using real-time RT-PCR. Decreased disease activity in patients at the end of the study was associated with significant downregulation of TNFα expression. Downregulation of mTOR was observed in seronegative patients, while no significant changes in the expression of p21, ULK1, or caspase-3 were noted in any RA patients at the end of the study. The increase in erosion numbers observed in the seropositive patients at the end of the follow-up was accompanied by upregulation of MMP-9 and cathepsin K, while seronegative patients demonstrated an absence of significant changes in MMP-9 and cathepsin K expression and no increase in the erosion score. Our results suggest that increased expression of MMP-9 and cathepsin K genes in the peripheral blood might indicate higher bone tissue destruction activity in RA patients treated with methotrexate. The clinical study registration number is 0120.0810610.

Early remission is associated with improved survival in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register

Objectives

This study aimed to evaluate whether the early achievement of clinical remission influences overall survival in an inception cohort of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP).

Methods

Consecutive early IP patients, recruited to a primary care based inception cohort from 1990 to 1994 and from 2000 to 2004 were eligible for this study. Remission was defined as absence of clinically detectable joint inflammation on a 51-joint count. In sensitivity analyses, less stringent definitions of remission were used, based on 28-joint counts. Remission was assessed at 1, 2 and 3 years after baseline. All patients were flagged with the national death register. Censoring was set at 1 May 2011. The effect of remission on mortality was analysed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model, and presented as HRs and 95% CIs.

Results

A total of 1251 patients were included in the analyses. Having been in remission at least once within the first 3 years of follow-up was associated with a significantly lower risk of death: HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.94). Patients who were in remission 1 year after the baseline assessments and had persistent remission over time had the greatest reduction in mortality risk compared with patients who never achieved remission within the first 3 years of follow-up: HR 0.58 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.91). Remission according to less stringent definitions was associated with progressively lower protective effect.

Conclusions

Early and sustained remission is associated with decreased all-cause mortality in patients with IP. This result supports clinical remission as the target in the management of IP.

Clinical response within 12 weeks as a predictor of future low disease activity in patients with early RA: results from the TEAR Trial

OBJECTIVE

Rapidly predicting future outcomes based on short-term clinical response would be helpful to optimize rheumatoid arthritis (RA) management in early disease. Our aim was to derive and validate a clinical prediction rule to predict low disease activity (LDA) at 1 year among patients participating in the Treatment of Early Aggressive Rheumatoid Arthritis (TEAR) trial escalating RA therapy by adding either etanercept or sulfasalazine + hydroxychloroquine [triple therapy (TT)] after 6 months of methotrexate (MTX) therapy.

METHODS

Eligible subjects included in the derivation cohort (used for model building, n = 186) were participants with moderate or higher disease activity [Disease Activity Score 28-erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS-ESR) > 3.2] despite 24 weeks of MTX monotherapy who added either etanercept or sulfasalazine + hydroxychloroquine. Clinical characteristics measured within the next 12 weeks were used to predict LDA 1 year later using multivariable logistic regression. Validation was performed in the cohort of TEAR patients randomized to initially receive either MTX + etanercept or TT.

RESULTS

The derivation cohort yielded 3 prediction models of varying complexity that included age, DAS28 at various timepoints, body mass index, and ESR (area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve up to 0.83). Accuracy of the prediction models ranged between 80% and 95% in both derivation and validation cohorts, depending on the complexity of the model and the cutpoints chosen for response and nonresponse. About 80% of patients could be predicted to be responders or nonresponders at Week 12.

CONCLUSION

Clinical data collected early after starting or escalating disease-modifying antirheumatic drug/biologic treatment could accurately predict LDA at 1 year in patients with early RA. For patients predicted to be nonresponders, treatment could be changed at 12 weeks to optimize outcomes.

Old drugs, old problems: where do we stand in prediction of rheumatoid arthritis responsiveness to methotrexate and other synthetic DMARDs?

Methotrexate (MTX) is the central drug in the management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and other immune mediated inflammatory diseases. It is widely used either in monotherapy or in association with other synthetic and biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). Although comprehensive clinical experience exists for MTX and synthetic DMARDs, to date it has not been possible to preview correctly whether or not a patient will respond to treatment with these drugs. Predicting response to MTX and other DMARDs would allow the selection of patients based on their likelihood of response, thus enabling individualized therapy and avoiding unnecessary adverse effects and elevated costs. However, studies analyzing this issue have struggled to obtain consistent, replicable results and no factor has yet been recognized to individually distinguish responders from nonresponders at treatment start. Variables possibly influencing drug effectiveness may be disease-, patient- or treatment-related, clinical or biological (genetic and nongenetic). In this review we summarize current evidence on predictors of response to MTX and other synthetic DMARDs, discuss possible causes for the heterogeneity observed and address its translation into daily clinical practice.

Molecular characterization of rheumatoid arthritis with magnetic resonance imaging

Several recent advances in the field of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may transform the detection and monitoring of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). These advances depict both anatomic and molecular alterations from RA. Previous techniques could detect specific end products of metabolism in vitro or were limited to providing anatomic information. This review focuses on the novel molecular imaging techniques of hyperpolarized carbon-13 MRI, MRI with iron-labeled probes, and fusion of MRI with positron emission tomography. These new imaging approaches go beyond the anatomic description of RA and lend new information into the status of this disease by giving molecular information.