1
|
Pujante-Otalora L, Canovas-Segura B, Campos M, Juarez JM. The use of networks in spatial and temporal computational models for outbreak spread in epidemiology: A systematic review. J Biomed Inform 2023; 143:104422. [PMID: 37315830 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbi.2023.104422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Revised: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To examine recent literature in order to present a comprehensive overview of the current trends as regards the computational models used to represent the propagation of an infectious outbreak in a population, paying particular attention to those that represent network-based transmission. METHODS a systematic review was conducted following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Papers published in English between 2010 and September 2021 were sought in the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, PubMed and Scopus databases. RESULTS Upon considering their titles and abstracts, 832 papers were obtained, of which 192 were selected for a full content-body check. Of these, 112 studies were eventually deemed suitable for quantitative and qualitative analysis. Emphasis was placed on the spatial and temporal scales studied, the use of networks or graphs, and the granularity of the data used to evaluate the models. The models principally used to represent the spreading of outbreaks have been stochastic (55.36%), while the type of networks most frequently used are relationship networks (32.14%). The most common spatial dimension used is a region (19.64%) and the most used unit of time is a day (28.57%). Synthetic data as opposed to an external source were used in 51.79% of the papers. With regard to the granularity of the data sources, aggregated data such as censuses or transportation surveys are the most common. CONCLUSION We identified a growing interest in the use of networks to represent disease transmission. We detected that research is focused on only certain combinations of the computational model, type of network (in both the expressive and the structural sense) and spatial scale, while the search for other interesting combinations has been left for the future.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lorena Pujante-Otalora
- AIKE Research Group (INTICO), University of Murcia, Campus Espinardo, Murcia 30100, Spain.
| | | | - Manuel Campos
- AIKE Research Group (INTICO), University of Murcia, Campus Espinardo, Murcia 30100, Spain; Murcian Bio-Health Institute (IMIB-Arrixaca), El Palmar, Murcia 30120, Spain.
| | - Jose M Juarez
- AIKE Research Group (INTICO), University of Murcia, Campus Espinardo, Murcia 30100, Spain.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Douchet L, Haramboure M, Baldet T, L'Ambert G, Damiens D, Gouagna LC, Bouyer J, Labbé P, Tran A. Comparing sterile male releases and other methods for integrated control of the tiger mosquito in temperate and tropical climates. Sci Rep 2021; 11:7354. [PMID: 33795801 PMCID: PMC8016901 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-86798-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2020] [Accepted: 03/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The expansion of mosquito species worldwide is creating a powerful network for the spread of arboviruses. In addition to the destruction of breeding sites (prevention) and mass trapping, methods based on the sterile insect technique (SIT), the autodissemination of pyriproxyfen (ADT), and a fusion of elements from both of these known as boosted SIT (BSIT), are being developed to meet the urgent need for effective vector control. However, the comparative potential of these methods has yet to be explored in different environments. This is needed to propose and integrate informed guidelines into sustainable mosquito management plans. We extended a weather-dependent model of Aedes albopictus population dynamics to assess the effectiveness of these different vector control methods, alone or in combination, in a tropical (Reunion island, southwest Indian Ocean) and a temperate (Montpellier area, southern France) climate. Our results confirm the potential efficiency of SIT in temperate climates when performed early in the year (mid-March for northern hemisphere). In such a climate, the timing of the vector control action was the key factor in its success. In tropical climates, the potential of the combination of methods becomes more relevant. BSIT and the combination of ADT with SIT were twice as effective compared to the use of SIT alone.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Léa Douchet
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 97491, Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion, France
- ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Marion Haramboure
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 97491, Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion, France.
- ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
- ISEM, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
- TETIS, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
| | - Thierry Baldet
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 97491, Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion, France
- ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Gregory L'Ambert
- Department of Research and Development, EID Méditerranée, Montpellier, France
| | - David Damiens
- IRD, CNRS-UM-IRD, UMR MIVEGEC, Montpellier, Reunion, France
- IRD/GIP CYROI, Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion, France
| | - Louis Clément Gouagna
- IRD, CNRS-UM-IRD, UMR MIVEGEC, Montpellier, Reunion, France
- IRD/GIP CYROI, Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion, France
| | - Jeremy Bouyer
- ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 34398, Montpellier, France
- Insect Pest Control Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Programme of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, 1400, Vienna, Austria
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 97410, Saint-Pierre, Reunion, France
| | - Pierrick Labbé
- ISEM, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Annelise Tran
- CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, 97491, Sainte-Clotilde, Reunion, France
- ASTRE, CIRAD, INRAE, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- TETIS, AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Effect of daily human movement on some characteristics of dengue dynamics. Math Biosci 2021; 332:108531. [PMID: 33460675 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2020] [Revised: 12/09/2020] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Human movement is a key factor in infectious diseases spread such as dengue. Here, we explore a mathematical modeling approach based on a system of ordinary differential equations to study the effect of human movement on characteristics of dengue dynamics such as the existence of endemic equilibria, and the start, duration, and amplitude of the outbreak. The model considers that every day is divided into two periods: high-activity and low-activity. Periodic human movement between patches occurs in discrete times. Based on numerical simulations, we show unexpected scenarios such as the disease extinction in regions where the local basic reproductive number is greater than 1. In the same way, we obtain scenarios where outbreaks appear despite the fact that the local basic reproductive numbers in these regions are less than 1 and the outbreak size depends on the length of high-activity and low-activity periods.
Collapse
|
4
|
Ambrosio B, Aziz-Alaoui MA. On a Coupled Time-Dependent SIR Models Fitting with New York and New-Jersey States COVID-19 Data. BIOLOGY 2020; 9:E135. [PMID: 32599867 PMCID: PMC7344619 DOI: 10.3390/biology9060135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2020] [Revised: 06/05/2020] [Accepted: 06/19/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of March 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people becoming infected is adjusted over time in order to fit the available data. The death rate is also secondarily adjusted. Our fitting is made under the assumption that due to limiting number of tests, a large part of the infected population has not been tested positive. In the last part, we extend the model to take into account the daily fluxes between New Jersey (NJ) and NY states and fit the data for both states. Our simple model fits the available data, and illustrates typical dynamics of the disease: exponential increase, apex and decrease. The model highlights a decrease in the transmission rate over the period which gives a quantitative illustration about how lockdown policies reduce the spread of the pandemic. The coupled model with NY and NJ states shows a wave in NJ following the NY wave, illustrating the mechanism of spread from one attractive hot spot to its neighbor.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Ambrosio
- UNIHAVRE, LMAH, FR-CNRS-3335, ISCN, Normandie University, 76600 Le Havre, France;
| | | |
Collapse
|